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Old 28 August 2018, 11:54 AM   #121
chows99
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If a financial crisis does come eventually (since we are in the longest bull run), prices may come down but the most significantly, more mint condition watches may come to the market as people need their cash flow.
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Old 28 August 2018, 05:29 PM   #122
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You talk like a man that’s never experienced the sharp end of financial hardship. Either personally (bankruptcy, illness etc) or collectively (recession, natural disaster etc).
In which case you’re very lucky and by no means an average collector or Every Man.

Demand does ebb and flow for lots of reasons, as do qualifying life events. Declaring so confidently that there will always be demand, or that you’ll always be in a position to drop $10k+ on a watch feels like tempting fate...


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I work hard in an average job to be able to buy a luxury watch. But if could buy my grail watch for 10k instead of an astronomical price wich i can 't pay. I would do it.

And i do thank God for not being sick, yes
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Old 28 August 2018, 05:35 PM   #123
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Because they are going to be losers any Day now by your logic above.What I’m trying to say is that if You TRULY thought all vintage Watches Where losers that you would have sold out by now.You can say Money doesn’t matter all You want,We all know it does.
I said great vintage may be sustainable and strong. Great pieces wont get much cheaper as long as we don’t have a financial crisis which hurts most things in life. Perhaps it is my english skills but when I say that I doubt anyting vintage will appreciate I meant that that average stuff that ain’t rare will continue up as it has. I don’t think it will. A standard run of the mill matte sub from the 70’s is not likely to cost 50-100k any time soon while a great condition gilt will.
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Old 29 August 2018, 09:45 AM   #124
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Only an anecdote...I was in Monterey, CA for Car Week a few days ago and stopped in Fourtane. The case holding vintage Rolex sports watches is at the very front of the shop, and on the opposite side are the vintage Rolex dress watches (Day-Date, Datejust,etc.). The entire length of the case holding the sports watches was shoulder-to-shoulder with customers and three deep. The other cases holding contemporary Rolex watches and other high-end brand luxury timepieces were given only a passing glance. The whole thing was extraordinary to see. To be clear, I was in the store for all of 20 minutes or so, and the episode I'm speaking
of here occurred two days before the Saturday GTG.
Last point: the buyers-to-be (and lookiloos) were truly an international group.
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Old 1 September 2018, 08:38 AM   #125
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On a long enough timeline, everything is dying.

My concern is how it will be doing in the next 20 or thirty years, because I don't think I will make it past that.

I'm pretty sure my family will sell all of them after I'm gone, and I'd like to see them get a good price.

I just hope they don't sell them for what I said I paid!
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Old 1 September 2018, 09:35 PM   #126
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On a long enough timeline, everything is dying.

My concern is how it will be doing in the next 20 or thirty years, because I don't think I will make it past that.

I'm pretty sure my family will sell all of them after I'm gone, and I'd like to see them get a good price.

I just hope they don't sell them for what I said I paid!


You should catalogue them on your computer and keep the price up to date.


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Old 1 September 2018, 09:41 PM   #127
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Eventually, prices will be too enticing for many “regular” collectors, like me, not to cash in, with many of the nicest examples ending up in the vast collections of the truly wealthy. And for the most part, there they will stay. This happened with the earliest references, and the gilt dials after that, and now the mattes.

Someday the five digits will be what most people refer to when talking about vintage.


Excellent point


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Old 17 September 2018, 10:32 PM   #128
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not at all, the pangs for a 1601 and a 1016 are growing for me
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Old 22 September 2018, 09:07 PM   #129
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look at Bubble Backs and what happened to that market. look at stamps. look at antiques. i know the prevailing 'wisdom' on this board is that prices never go down and there will always be a place for top quality vintage Rolex. the fact is, tastes change with time; 50% price gains per year is unsustainable; high quality fakes can ruin markets.

i purchased a 16750 matte dial 10 years ago for $1750. the reference is worth nearly 10x that amount today. anything that goes up that fast can come down just as quickly. if the price goes to $25k in 2 years and im sitting on a couple watches worth $>50k, would i get more enjoyment out of the watches or a used 911? at some point, i will sell everything if this insanity keeps up.

and i dont care what others on here think, these Veblen goods are going to get hammered during the next recession. there are WAY too many people speculating on these for anything besides a massive correction to occur when the world economy hits the next downturn.
This is likely the accurate perspective. Just like the classic car market...values change as tastes change of the buyers. Right now you have non-watch collectors investing in watches which props up the market even more.
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Old 22 September 2018, 09:57 PM   #130
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I think it all has to do with the passage of time I'm 73 years old I have seen this happen to camera, audio/stereo my other hobbies as well. We have an affinity for these objects because we grew up with them but the younger folks get the time and take pictures and listen to music off of their iphones!
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Old 23 September 2018, 12:30 AM   #131
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Interestingly, evidence suggests price and interest in cool collectibles is generational.

Interest in 30’s and 40’s antique cars is in terminal decline; more to do with the age of the enthusiasts than parts availability. Try selling one of these today...

Interest in 50’s and 60’s muscle cars, E-Types, MGs, is declining as fewer boomers can maintain and enjoy them. And their grand kids don’t want them.

Iconic 80’s and 90’s cars are hot with GenXers (911s, 280SLs, Audi Quatros, Lancia Integrales).

There are still enthusiastic collectors of vintage pocket watches but they’re aging and facing the down sizing dilemma. The market for these is shrinking and they can be tough to sell.

I think there are valid parallels...


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This I think has some very good pointers of why certain vintage models within brands have become hot and how it changes over time.
Added to this supply vs demand and increase of incomes/demand out of Asia in the last 20 years explains a lot.
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Old 23 September 2018, 08:53 AM   #132
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So your saying in 20 yrs the kids of today will be collecting Apple watches :)
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Old 23 September 2018, 11:31 AM   #133
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So your saying in 20 yrs the kids of today will be collecting Apple watches :)


Have you seen what a NOS Gameboy with B&P changes hands for these days? Or a mint 1st Gen iPod?




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Old 23 September 2018, 01:59 PM   #134
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[QUOTE=MorningTundra;8952300]Have you seen what a NOS Gameboy with B&P changes hands for these days? Or a mint 1st Gen iPod?
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No I haven't.
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Old 24 September 2018, 02:19 AM   #135
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Is vintage collecting a dying hobby?

The one difference between the classic/muscle/90s car comparison is that there’s drastic aesthetic changes between all those and each generation prefers what they grew up with. A vintage GMT from the 60s is very aesthetically similar to one from today.


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Old 24 September 2018, 03:47 AM   #136
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Well in The Netherlands it is getting quite populair among the youth got a lot to do with the social media Amsterdam vintage watches is doibg.
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Old 24 September 2018, 03:53 AM   #137
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the opportunity has been greatly reduced for anyone of limited means.
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Old 24 September 2018, 08:10 PM   #138
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the opportunity has been greatly reduced for anyone of limited means.


Lots of interest in vintage Tudors from younger collectors. Date and Day-Dates are still relatively affordable.




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Old 25 September 2018, 12:08 PM   #139
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Nor have I

[QUOTE=springer;8952488]
Quote:
Originally Posted by MorningTundra View Post
Have you seen what a NOS Gameboy with B&P changes hands for these days? Or a mint 1st Gen iPod?
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No I haven't.
My red sub seems as desirable as ever... at least to me!

And I want to add a vintage GMT.
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Old 25 September 2018, 04:33 PM   #140
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Date and Day-Dates are still relatively affordable.
Yup. These are great options for anyone wanting to get in before everything becomes unobtanium.
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Old 26 September 2018, 01:01 AM   #141
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I don't think it will ever die to be honest. Not any time soon anyway (at least another 20 years). The world of social media have just begun and more and more people (young and old) are getting interested in vintage watches. As many have mentioned it's mainly the only jewelry most men wear and it's functionality can't really be compared with vintage cars because it tells the time just as well (or well enough) as modern watches but vintage cars is not as easy to be used in modern world. Also, the most important thing is obviously because these watches are not made anymore and cannot in anyway be replicated or recreated.
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Old 26 September 2018, 07:31 AM   #142
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From my experience there are a lot of ”young” people buying quality pieces. Many of the most knowledgable people I know are young. I really don’t see this as a dying hobby. I do however see some old school watch collectors feeling that their hobby got hi-jacked with new collectors, Instagram etc.
You should go read the posts on this topic at Omega Forum. They are openly hostile, even in other members' for sale listings.
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Old 26 September 2018, 07:53 AM   #143
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New models like the SD43, Pepsi, & Daytona Ceramic are modern iterations of the 1680, 1675, & 6241

These peak prices will be corrected soon enough
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Old 25 October 2018, 06:16 AM   #144
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Vintage market in toilet now. Buy Buy Buy
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Old 25 October 2018, 08:45 AM   #145
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Not sure it's dying in Asia...prices in Sing, Indonesia and HK are at premium compare to Europe and US. I've seen 20 something flashing their VR while driving exotic cars. If there will be a crash, the rich will eat up what's on offer thus creating relatively fast rebound. Actually this was the case after 08 crash according to one Japanese magazine. It have graphs of the Rolex prices based on models and rebound is relatively swift. Just a comparison, my 6980 recovered after 10 years to reach pre crash price while my simple P series 16610 recovered after 2 years going upwards thereafter.
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Old 25 October 2018, 10:47 AM   #146
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Why is it any different than any other collectible? Classic cars? Baseball cards? I’d say that our vintage watches mean far more in many ways. And they work and function. I didn’t buy for an investment but doubt they will lose value over the long haul. Just another guy with an opinion.
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Old 25 October 2018, 01:32 PM   #147
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I don't want to be a collecter. In the real world (ok, for me) while trying to buy an older, not too old Gmt Pepsi @ 2000-2006 to wear and enjoy l found there were too many variables for me. l bought a new Blnr.

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Old 25 October 2018, 09:21 PM   #148
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Not sure it's dying in Asia...prices in Sing, Indonesia and HK are at premium compare to Europe and US. I've seen 20 something flashing their VR while driving exotic cars. If there will be a crash, the rich will eat up what's on offer thus creating relatively fast rebound. Actually this was the case after 08 crash according to one Japanese magazine. It have graphs of the Rolex prices based on models and rebound is relatively swift. Just a comparison, my 6980 recovered after 10 years to reach pre crash price while my simple P series 16610 recovered after 2 years going upwards thereafter.


Suggest they’ve become mainstream status symbols and investment assets. My original hypothesis being, the “hobby” may have peaked. The only “hobbiests” left have the means and connections to collect at the top end of the market. Those left scouring thrift stores and estate sales are pursuing a profit rather than a collection.

I’m not suggesting the market is dying just the “hobby” many of the old guys grew up with.


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Old 25 October 2018, 09:30 PM   #149
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Suggest they’ve become mainstream status symbols and investment assets. My original hypothesis being, the “hobby” may have peaked. The only “hobbiests” left have the means and connections to collect at the top end of the market. Those left scouring thrift stores and estate sales are pursuing a profit rather than a collection.

I’m not suggesting the market is dying just the “hobby” many of the old guys grew up with.


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Of course it is changing for the ones that started long time ago. With new price levels not everyone will be able to, or want to, continue with vintage Rolex. The good thing is that there are plenty of other brands to collect.

Even if I am mostly into vintage Rolex I still get that warm and fuzzy feeling when I see a great watch. Regardless brand. And that is not dependant on price. That is dependant on quality. No matter if it is an untouched Tissot or an awesome Patek Philippe.

I think the market is getting more stable. I still think great pieces have a bright future moneywise but I also think that some common models might move down a bit. Same goes for not perfect condition pieces.
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Old 26 October 2018, 01:02 AM   #150
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I am 25 and although I do wear an Apple Watch everyday for work and gym, my weekend go to is a mechanical watch. But you do have to see it from the eyes of someone younger. For some of us we came out of college in debt, we still have to buy a home, and put a lot of focus on savings and investments. Although many see watch collecting as an investment, it’s not nearly as easy to sell a watch as it is to pull money out of other investments. While I love Rolex I didn’t purchase my first one until last year (24 years old) simply because I couldn’t afford one. My initial collecting somewhere around 19/20 years old went straight into older Omegas because they not only look good but can be had for extremely fair prices. A lot of people of my generation look at Rolex more as a status symbol than the work of art that it is, and it’s truly up to older generations who do collect, to share the reasons why.
I am in the same boat as you Serna. Iv been a big fan of mechanical watches for years but as a young 18yr old who just moved out of his parents house to make his way in the world a 70/80's sports watch is not on the top of the to do list. Fast forward 6 years after working your way life to get yourself a job, house, (and of course a couple of Omega's, a JLC and a 16600) and I find my 'grail' 1665 GW MK1 (which I define as a watch which in the relative world is obtainable not a poster and a dream) selling from the dealer that I purchased the 16600 off. I went for it bringing in all the cash I had trading in my 16600 and have not looked back since, purely for the love of the watch.

Sure it is nice that it has gone up in value but on the contrary so have all the other models that I am interested in, which are now so far out my price range to own and that I may never be able to own them. If the market crashed I would be equally as happy having my 1665 drop in value but also be able to look at purchasing another model that I like.

It sometimes feels that the blame for the rising costs which price the WIS out of the market are blamed on people in their 20's with their lust for luxury to post on instagram as an act of showing off with no care in the world for the actual watch itself. I have been taking a browse though Burlington Arcade and other shops with wide eyes asking about the finer details of a piece and they seem to have the attitude that I don't about these things and just want a watch that looks like its brand new and will impress my mates with no regard for its history, dial, movement or originality.


However, I take solace in the forums where no one knows your age (until now) and you can browse among all the topics that you want to talk or know about and there is more than enough people that want to help you better your understanding. Its not place where you have to prove yourself or know more than someone else, have a 'Knowledge off' to show your serious. Just a group of people who share the same interest and like to post about it.

I just hope that the view of these people who think we see Drake and want a Rolex because he's got one that he raps about realise it doesn't apply to the whole 20's age group as some of us are enthusiasts, all be it new to the hobby, but we are still only young after all
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