Possibility of Nautilus 5711 (white/blue) being discontinued in the next 1-2 yrs?

[watchtabs]

We have spoken about this in the past, but its time for a follow up.

Do you guys think this may happen in the mid term?

[thomaspp]

Probably happening as we speak.... 5711 should be worth at least 3x current grey market prices


Or, Patek being a money loving profit making venture, maybe they double or triple supply....

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[yessir69]

No.

[GB-man]

Possible yes. Likely, no. Only possible if a new version is announced. TS will never kill the nautilus and he never intended to. That was a good laugh. Some here actually believed him.

[Helmi]

Doesn’t make any sense to discontinue their cash cow. Refresh and new model may be, but completely discontinued no way

[RussW]

I would guess not while demand for the current model is so high. Imagine the waiting list for a new model, as even current owners would want the new one. I don’t think Patek would want to send the craziness even higher.

[Sonzy]

Originally Posted by Helmi

Doesn’t make any sense to discontinue their cash cow. Refresh and new model may be, but completely discontinued no way

I strongly agree.

[tyler1980]

they seem to discontinue references regardless of popularity almost with an eye to future value retention for their collectors. 5131's are an obvious example. The R most recently, could have gone for much longer as its not like they were making a ton anyway. So on the surface it didn't make any sense.

I could see it absolutely but then that assumes they have a viable replacement.

[tyler1980]

Originally Posted by Helmi

Doesn’t make any sense to discontinue their cash cow. Refresh and new model may be, but completely discontinued no way

i strongly disagree the 5711 is a cash cow. If patek makes the majority of its watches in PM ( its widely speculated less than 25% of all watches are SS) and then to take one model in SS which which would represent a fraction of total production. Then you factor in its one of the cheapest watches so the margin is not as high especially so vs a simple calatrava in gold and on a leather strap which is much less labor intensive to finish (softer metal and no bracelet).

They would have to sell a lot of 5711's to offset the revenue from one more complicated piece.

The calatrava is the cash cow IMO.

most in demand and most revenue generating watch is different. It could be a cash cow though absolutely if they pumped them out in higher quantities.

[Helmi]

Originally Posted by tyler1980

i strongly disagree the 5711 is a cash cow. If patek makes the majority of its watches in PM ( its widely speculated less than 25% of all watches are SS) and then to take one model in SS which which would represent a fraction of total production. Then you factor in its one of the cheapest watches so the margin is not as high especially so vs a simple calatrava in gold and on a leather strap which is much labor intensive to finish.

They would have to sell a lot of 5711's to offset the revenue from one more complicated piece.

The calatrava is the cash cow IMO.

most in demand and most revenue generating watch is different. It could be a cash cow though absolutely if they pumped them out in higher quantities.

Good points, I was wrong. Thanks for the enlightening feedback

[tyler1980]

Originally Posted by Helmi

Good points, I was wrong. Thanks for the enlightening feedback

sort of like a daytona i guess. Rolex could increase production 20X and still sell them all. They could displace the DJ as the most sold model if they wanted but they dont. So in that same vein i wouldn't say a Daytona is hugely important financially to Rolex based on sales. Maybe so in brand perception

[AK797]

I think it's too important to their marketing and insta-marketing now, urinates all over the next generation nonsense. This generation wants things. NOW.

[thomaspp]

Originally Posted by tyler1980

sort of like a daytona i guess. Rolex could increase production 20X and still sell them all. They could displace the DJ as the most sold model if they wanted but they dont. So in that same vein i wouldn't say a Daytona is hugely important financially to Rolex based on sales. Maybe so in brand perception

True the problem i see is someone like Rolex has many product lines that sell well. With Patek, it’s nautilus and aquanaut and if not, generally not in demand and hard to move (at least at msrp). Sure there is the off hit like the 5524 or 5235 but it seems there isn’t real staying power at least from a sustained sales perspective for those off hits (they are more a niche thing)...

Patek is expanding on the nautilus with 5990, 5740 and aquanaut. I imagine Basel will see more aquanauts and perhaps another nautilus.


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[Captainbob]

Perhaps having tested the water with the anniversary editions in PM and the 5740 perhaps they will look to take the whole range higher market with an update to 5711 (42mm perhaps) in SS at a much higher price point. I think a full WG 5711/12 with 5740 blue dial could also clean up. Could they maybe test the market appetite even by going pM only for a year or two?

[tyler1980]

Originally Posted by thomaspp

True the problem i see is someone like Rolex has many product lines that sell well. With Patek, it’s nautilus and aquanaut and if not, generally not in demand and hard to move (at least at msrp). Sure there is the off hit like the 5524 or 5235 but it seems there isn’t real staying power at least from a sustained sales perspective for those off hits (they are more a niche thing)...

Patek is expanding on the nautilus with 5990, 5740 and aquanaut. I imagine Basel will see more aquanauts and perhaps another nautilus.


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i tend to think they will push the higher priced and more complicated nautilus also. The 5740 was smart as it piggybacks the 11/12 popularity and puts it at a much higher price point. The 5990 is another good move at a higher price, and i would think the 5980 will be back in some white metal.

...or 5711 G or P replacing the SS. Its not the craziest idea. If you are not making more then you might as well sell the same number you are currently selling at 3X the price. People would buy and demand just might equal supply.

[thomaspp]

Originally Posted by tyler1980

i tend to think they will push the higher priced and more complicated nautilus also. The 5740 was smart as it piggybacks the 11/12 popularity and puts it at a much higher price point. The 5990 is another good move at a higher price, and i would think the 5980 will be back in some white metal.

...or 5711 G or P replacing the SS. Its not the craziest idea. If you are not making more then you might as well sell the same number you are currently selling at 3X the price. People would buy and demand just might equal supply.

Yes. One thing you can always count on with our beloved Patek is the profit motive! And making profit for their retail partners (good for Patek). There will be more nautilus.... for many years to come and in many shapes and sizes too. This is why I don’t understand how “in production” watches made in high numbers are selling so high above retail... I collect vintage and happily pay a ton for them but this is just silliness. Anyway, that’s my take. Have a good one


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[jon_jon]

I still predict that Patek will come out with a larger Nautilus, probably 2mm larger than the 5711. For those people who have never seen a 5711 before, it wears small on the wrist.

[thomaspp]

Originally Posted by jon_jon

I still predict that Patek will come out with a larger Nautilus, probably 2mm larger than the 5711. For those people who have never seen a 5711 before, it wears small on the wrist.

Oh I hope not! It’s bad enough with the new blown up nautiluses! They need to take off running seconds and make it thinner! Lol


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[Vipes]

ADs need the Nautilus to entice customers to buy the less popular models. So I say no

[thomaspp]

Originally Posted by Vipes

ADs need the Nautilus to entice customers to buy the less popular models. So I say no

The only thing keeping customers at the door! Lol


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[Sam Philip]

Originally Posted by jon_jon

I still predict that Patek will come out with a larger Nautilus, probably 2mm larger than the 5711. For those people who have never seen a 5711 before, it wears small on the wrist.

I also think they would come with larger Nautilus such as other metal variants of 5796G.

[Marciano490]

Originally Posted by tyler1980

they seem to discontinue references regardless of popularity almost with an eye to future value retention for their collectors. 5131's are an obvious example. The R most recently, could have gone for much longer as its not like they were making a ton anyway. So on the surface it didn't make any sense.

I could see it absolutely but then that assumes they have a viable replacement.

I don’t see how you can reference a cloisonné dial watch when talking about production figures of the basic steel nautilus.

[tyler1980]

Originally Posted by Marciano490

I don’t see how you can reference a cloisonné dial watch when talking about production figures of the basic steel nautilus.

i was referring to discontinuing a watch that isnt having any problems selling

Production numbers are irrelevant. Discontinuing a watch that they could continue to make for a long time and still sell every one was the point. Usually brands discontinue an item when it stops selling as well and people lose interest.

[JJ WA]

The Nautilus is here to stay. The 5711 will be discontinued at some point, for sure. As a comparison, the 3940 was in regular production for about 20 years, I believe, but was eventually discontinued. All references will be discontinued. Having said that, I don’t see that happening with the 5711 in a couple of years, but certainly won’t take 10 years either.

[JJ WA]

double post

[SL BRABUS]

Nautilus 5711 (white/blue) will NEVER be discontinued......

But will be a facelift in the future..... Example just like Rolex Daytona or Rolex Subs.....

[Marciano490]

Originally Posted by tyler1980

i was referring to discontinuing a watch that isnt having any problems selling

Production numbers are irrelevant. Discontinuing a watch that they could continue to make for a long time and still sell every one was the point. Usually brands discontinue an item when it stops selling as well and people lose interest.

I’m not sure that’s the case. At all. Were the 5070s or 5970s having trouble selling?

[V25V]

Originally Posted by jon_jon

I still predict that Patek will come out with a larger Nautilus, probably 2mm larger than the 5711. For those people who have never seen a 5711 before, it wears small on the wrist.

I really hope not. And you know that will only inflate the secondary market on 40mm variants.

[Basel_World]

I rather think that the 5712 might be discontinued.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by watchtabs

We have spoken about this in the past, but its time for a follow up.

Do you guys think this may happen in the mid term?

How long is the "mid term"?