Vintage Rolex Predictions For 2016

[JohnBaker3]

http://www.vintagerolexforum.com/

Hey Guys:

Philipp over at Rolex Passion Report (and VRF) has the most incredible article about his predictions on the Vintage Market for 2016...

You will need to scroll down to find the thread....

The comments are spot on, but the attached photos will make you drool!

[AS1]

very good read, thank you for sharing.

[seattleal]

Here is the full thread:

http://www.network54.com/Forum/20759...ex+Predictions.....

[texex91]

My take away...vintage is a good place to be :-)

[droptopman]

Good read, thanks for posting. I agree with much of what he says. Unfortunately still looking for that birth year gilt Sub. I should have bought one 2-3 years ago. Being picky is going to be costly.....

[Passinthru]

Why no specific reference to the 6239 in the article? Are they just too common to be worth anything?

[Robbyvm]

Originally Posted by Passinthru

Why no specific reference to the 6239 in the article? Are they just too common to be worth anything?

i was wondering the same thing when i read the article a few days ago...

[greekbum]

My prediction is anything that isn't the mint of the mint or super rare will go sideways to down in prices in US dollars.

[Zoran]

Originally Posted by greekbum

My prediction is anything that isn't the mint of the mint or super rare will go sideways to down in prices in US dollars.

Which is 90% of the current vintage market
I can live with that and the choices provided

I like all variaties and aspects of the vintage watches, so there will be enough to choose from for us who don't want to spent +30K on a single watch

[antbkny]

great article on rpr. i guess this means i should wait a bit before jumping on some vintage pieces.

http://rolexpassionreport.com/19916/...t-predictions/

[texex91]

Actually the right pieces are still going to command the price as noted, but may not be as much.

Summary: "But as long as the sellers demands are reasonable, the sales upwards will continue in 2016"

There was a thread about this already as well.

[05carbondrz]

See this Thread:http://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=457873

[Karbo]

Is he just saying that price growth will be 10% a year instead of 25%-50%? Lol

[springer]

Originally Posted by antbkny

great article on rpr. i guess this means i should wait a bit before jumping on some vintage pieces.

http://rolexpassionreport.com/19916/...t-predictions/

I found the article both informative and amusing. Most of those watches (auction watches) are in a price range for what....a half of 1% of the watch collectors.

[Loevhagen]

Originally Posted by springer

I found the article both informative and amusing. Most of those watches (auction watches) are in a price range for what....a half of 1% of the watch collectors.

Agree. Doesn't really say much (directly) to the rest of the vintage market. Except - maybe - "buy as nice examples you can afford". I.e. an old advice.

It was a good read, though - and complimented my cup of coffee. :)

[Dr.Smellody]

Great stuff!

[Toronto Soup King]

I'm happy enough with my common-or-garden vintage models, frankly. For all their service parts and nicks and scratches, they were bought at fairly modest prices and are great (and handsome) additions to the collection. Now, Curta calculators on the other hand...those, I want the rare versions, but they're a heckuvalot cheaper than vintage Daytonas

[dstacy]

Originally Posted by greekbum

My prediction is anything that isn't the mint of the mint or super rare will go sideways to down in prices in US dollars.

Yep. I agree with you. I think the bubble is bursting on collectables across the board. The same thing is starting to happen in the vintage car market where there are some who will lose small fortunes soon.

[The_Walrus]

Phillip says in his article to look out for the laser - welded pieces that have been polished back to Rolex spec.
Is there a definitive way to tell simply with the naked eye?

[texex91]

Originally Posted by dstacy

Yep. I agree with you. I think the bubble is bursting on collectables across the board. The same thing is starting to happen in the vintage car market where there are some who will lose small fortunes soon.

Things will slow--maybe. But I guess you just missed the almost all time Ferrari car sale that just happened. However, I hate car/watch analogies.

Bottom line, buy what you like and believe in.

Short term things go up and things go down.

What will last the long term...vintage is a good place to be in my book.

It's a hobby--or should be.

[cajuntiger]

Originally Posted by dstacy

Yep. I agree with you. I think the bubble is bursting on collectables across the board. The same thing is starting to happen in the vintage car market where there are some who will lose small fortunes soon.

I don't think the bubble will bust anytime soon. The balloon might be full, but there is too much demand vs supply for the market to burst.

[d.edwards]

Originally Posted by The_Walrus

Phillip says in his article to look out for the laser - welded pieces that have been polished back to Rolex spec.
Is there a definitive way to tell simply with the naked eye?

In his "Buying Guide" there is a section on how to spot laser welding. It's about halfway down. The link:

http://rolexpassionreport.com/14962/...-buyers-guide/

Very informative stuff for a newcomer like myself.

[JohnnyNoDate]

Originally Posted by The_Walrus

Phillip says in his article to look out for the laser - welded pieces that have been polished back to Rolex spec.
Is there a definitive way to tell simply with the naked eye?

Be extra vigiliant when you come across a piece selling itself as truly "unpolished" or "NOS." These pieces will probably come with a premium price attached to sell the image.

Check for differences in texture and color along the case and edges.

An unpolished case should also have uniform age-appropriate wear across the entire watch, i.e.: case, crystal, bezel, insert, crown, and bracelet.

Unless it's being offered as NOS... that's alot of effort to trick a buyer.

[dstacy]

Originally Posted by texex91

Things will slow--maybe. But I guess you just missed the almost all time Ferrari car sale that just happened. However, I hate car/watch analogies.

Bottom line, buy what you like and believe in.

Short term things go up and things go down.

What will last the long term...vintage is a good place to be in my book.

It's a hobby--or should be.

Even if I was in the market $32.5 was too much for that car. I've done pretty well on the Fcars I've owned, and still own, except for one. I never believed my Dino would go for anything close to what they sell for now. I sold mine 3 years ago.

[texex91]

Originally Posted by dstacy

Even if I was in the market $32.5 was too much for that car. I've done pretty well on the Fcars I've owned, and still own, except for one. I never believed my Dino would go for anything close to what they sell for now. I sold mine 3 years ago.

You just made my point. No one has a crystal ball.

And it wasn't too much as some sucker paid it. Too much for you yes. For someone else no.

Back to watch talk.

[dstacy]

Originally Posted by texex91

Back to watch talk.

Heaven forbid we should stray.

[texex91]

Originally Posted by dstacy

Heaven forbid we should stray.

If you want to talk cars I'm cool with that. Have a 458 so happy to chat. But since its the vintage Rolex forum might become boring...oh and off topic.

[jfmiii]

Originally Posted by texex91

If you want to talk cars I'm cool with that. Have a 458 so happy to chat. But since its the vintage Rolex forum might become boring...oh and off topic.

not if you post pics!

[texex91]

Originally Posted by jfmiii

not if you post pics!

Enjoy...easier than a repost LOL https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=452541

And I'll state for the record again, buying the right vintages pieces is still a good place to be (for me at least).

[jfmiii]

Originally Posted by texex91

Enjoy...easier than a repost LOL https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=452541

And I'll state for the record again, buying the right vintages pieces is still a good place to be (for me at least).

amazing car. my grail cars as a kid growing up were a 997 Turbo and an F355. while i think i might be able to afford to BUY the F355 one day, i doubt ill ever be able to afford to OWN the 355