Rolex price correction

[Eric-London]

Originally Posted by Juclaq

There is going to be a Rolex price correction in 2019. There is no way this is sustainable.

Said no one ever.

[envuks]

I agree we are in a demand bubble. However, I think the 2019 correction will be Rolex raising SS prices by double digit percentages in 2019, at the same time stock is more readily available. That will hurt the grays and begin to restore balance

[Mystro]

Excluding the grey market SS Daytona, $2k above msrp is not going to slow anyone that is in the market for a Rolex. Rolex could easily raise their msrp prices and keep production slightly down. This is how luxury exclusivity works. The SS Daytona at $20k usd is a bubble that could deflate some as its too much over its msrp and those buyers are extremely limited.

[vman]

Economy is growing worldwide. Don't have a link on hand, but came across an article that suggested that > 50% of the world is now middle class. Luxury companies now have an issue they have not had before: How do they maintain their status when more customers can afford luxury goods? By definition, if the masses have access to something, it is not luxury. Raise prices, limit distribution, create new products, etc.

[peterpl]

Originally Posted by vman

Economy is growing worldwide. Don't have a link on hand, but came across an article that suggested that > 50% of the world is now middle class. .

50%? Please share that article. Find that very hard to believe.

[tyler1980]

Originally Posted by vman

Economy is growing worldwide. Don't have a link on hand, but came across an article that suggested that > 50% of the world is now middle class. Luxury companies now have an issue they have not had before: How do they maintain their status when more customers can afford luxury goods? By definition, if the masses have access to something, it is not luxury. Raise prices, limit distribution, create new products, etc.

depends on how you are counting population and what you are excluding. 80% of the worlds population lives on less than $3 a day ($10 according to Oxfam).

Might that be middle class in a third world country? perhaps but that again it depends on how you define it. Doesnt mean luxury goods are purchasable on that.

[peterpl]

Originally Posted by tyler1980

depends on how you are counting population and what you are excluding. 80% of the worlds population lives on less than $3 a day.

Hahaha yep replied at exactly the same time. There are countries with massive population where majority live below the poverty line. I dont think 50% of the population is considered middle class.

[GolfPunk]

Originally Posted by Juclaq

There is going to be a Rolex price correction in 2019. There is no way this is sustainable. You are looking at pre-owned steel sports selling above MSRP. I can understand if the watches were discontinued models. However, we are looking at mass produced watches like a Sub or a SD. The following are why I know Rolex price correction is coming:

1. As much as Rolex makes us believe there is a shortage, Rolex is a still mass produced.
2. Lot of people have bought Rolex SS on speculation. If there is a price correction, I see alot of them dumping stock
3. All things run in cycles. Stocks, economy and even watches. Panerai were popular 5 years ago. Like Rolex, used Panerai were sold above retail.

I was in a market for another Rolex but I decided not to purchase it. All the speculations and rumors remind me of the housing bubble in 2008. I saw that coming and i waited after the bubble pop before purchasing properties. I see the same thing here. I am going to wait

I’m a financial adviser and when it comes to predicted financial markets, my belief is:

There’s are those that don’t know and there are those that don’t know that they don’t know.

[RXAPPP]

Ok.....

[Antognoli]

Gray Market prices aren't going down anytime soon

[stash21]

any correction will be on the grey market - which only affects those who have bought on the grey market and then subsequently want or need to sell. Cant see any wider macro financial problems affecting the Rolex RRP or demand at that RRP such that they need to discount to move inventory.

[R!$]

Originally Posted by milwins

lol nah

[oldman2005]

IMO, just wait for the recession, Rolex won't lower the MSRP but aftermarket price will be affected for sure. I was here during the last housing melt down :). My brother got a SS Daytona as a 1st time buyer at a local Rolex AD, my local AD offered me a white SS Daytona on the spot during that time. But many lost their homes, my neighbour lost 13 of his houses...Nothing is forever!

[jlovda]

If the watch market crashes it wouldn't help me. My IRA would probably crash at the same time.

[R!$]

dont hold your breath

[vman]

Brookings had a series of reports. The latest update is below. Please read it in full and note that I am not claiming that now 50% of the world can afford luxury goods. What can't be denied is the impact of middle class on the luxury good markets.

As one income goes up, so does the probability of that person dipping into indulgence. Luxury brands that catered to the top 5% of the world still cater to that audience, but that 5% is bigger now in terms of pure numbers. If manufacturers adjust the supply to meet the demand of the growing base, they'll gradually devalue the "luxury" premium associated with their brands.

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/futur...-or-wealthier/

[Nikrnic]

When I buy it's for new at an AD with a discount so I'm not worried. I don't buy as an investment, I make my money in other ways and watches are a small reward if you will. I'm most likely getting a new Blnr so this will break my streak on discounts. Price hike? Most likely 5 to7% my guess.

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[tom2517]

Originally Posted by jsausley

You didn't get in when corporate tax reform was on the table? Wow.

I was trying to be sarcastic.

[Token74]

I can’t remember the last time that true luxury goods took a hit - in tough times, the rich get richer. Sad but true.


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[Bearxj86]

I went to around 20 ADs in Asia and the U.S. No stainless steel sports.

So unless I am mistaken, unless the supply increases, prices will stay where they are or go up.

[exador]

Originally Posted by GolfPunk

I’m a financial adviser and when it comes to predicted financial markets, my belief is:

There’s are those that don’t know and there are those that don’t know that they don’t know.

So why do we pay you guys the big bucks again?

[GolfPunk]

Originally Posted by exador

So why do we pay you guys the big bucks again?

Haha, because it’s our job to assess your attitude to investment risk... low, low to medium, medium, medium to high, high.

Then we advise you to invest in what we consider to be the best investment proposition to achieve max returns over the medium to long term.

Nobody has a crystal ball or we’d all be billionaires.

[tyler1980]

Originally Posted by exador

So why do we pay you guys the big bucks again?

Originally Posted by GolfPunk

Haha, because it’s our job to assess your attitude to investment risk... low, low to medium, medium, medium to high, high.

Then we advise you to invest in what we consider to be the best investment proposition to achieve max returns over the medium to long term.

Nobody has a crystal ball or we’d all be billionaires.

ha. Yeah thats true

we fired ours who was managing a very low risk house savings fund. After the fees we made more in a savings account that was managed by no one and its safe.

High risk stuff, im more comfortable with a professional.

[dubins930]

It will come around full circle just as everything else does.... there’s no way people actually believe this is a sustainable trend lol

[GolfPunk]

Originally Posted by tyler1980

ha. Yeah thats true

we fired ours who was managing a very low risk house savings fund. After the fees we made more in a savings account that was managed by no one and its safe.

High risk stuff, im more comfortable with a professional.

[gccmd]

The same rule always applies- just buy your watches at MSRP after establishing a relationship with an AD. Then you don’t have to worry quite as much about bubble prices crashing.

[Sweetswisssteel]

Originally Posted by Juclaq

There is going to be a Rolex price correction in 2019. There is no way this is sustainable. You are looking at pre-owned steel sports selling above MSRP. I can understand if the watches were discontinued models. However, we are looking at mass produced watches like a Sub or a SD. The following are why I know Rolex price correction is coming:

1. As much as Rolex makes us believe there is a shortage, Rolex is a still mass produced.
2. Lot of people have bought Rolex SS on speculation. If there is a price correction, I see alot of them dumping stock
3. All things run in cycles. Stocks, economy and even watches. Panerai were popular 5 years ago. Like Rolex, used Panerai were sold above retail.

I was in a market for another Rolex but I decided not to purchase it. All the speculations and rumors remind me of the housing bubble in 2008. I saw that coming and i waited after the bubble pop before purchasing properties. I see the same thing here. I am going to wait

Nobody cares, people just want what they can't have.

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[ttechdoc]

I don't know of any other market besides housing where you can buy something new and years later sell it for the same price. Sure there's art and rare cars etc but across the board for Rolex to have most of their products sustain if not gain in value is absurd. Sure I'm happy my Rolex have maintained value but I'd rather live in the a world where the new watch is accessible at a premium and the used market is understandably less. I guess it's time to put an odometer complication on these things to really know what you're getting!

[watchwatcher]

Originally Posted by Juclaq

All the speculations and rumors remind me of the housing bubble in 2008.

If this is what you're basing your strategy on, you might want to re-think.

I'm not arguing with you...there very well could be some sort of economic downturn. I remember 2008 very well. I joined TRF right after that, and there were certainly some deals to be had. Crazy deals, when I think back.

But, when it's going to happen, and the scope and severity...that's where the waters get a little murky. Me, I'm no expert, for sure. At my advanced age though, sitting around waiting for something to happen is not an option.

[jsausley]

Originally Posted by peterpl

50%? Please share that article. Find that very hard to believe.

Technically depending on how you define middle class, it could be true, but trying to define anything like this "worldwide" is a bad idea because of major financial imbalances between countries. In the US if you take the median and then define the top 25% of income levels as upper class and the bottom 25% as lower class, then the middle 50% is in fact... middle class. I've seen this logic before, but if you do it worldwide, the "median income" is probably somewhere around $5,000/year because there are simply so many people in India, China and Africa. Under that definition the entire US would be middle or even upper class.