Rolex Price Crash ? No I didn't think so

[dtwer]

I can't speak for other countries but my take is the US will have a fairly speedy recovery as soon as the country opens back up.

Most working people are protected by the EPSLA so the prospect for a large scale unemployment is averted. When employment is stable, recession will not happen.

I would give the stay at home orders through the end of April and most of the country should be back in business right after that. There will be a lot of inventories to be built back up, businesses and manufacturers will be back in high gears.

[JamyMC]

I'm not sure we are having panic else it would have made many threads in this forum, the market is not yet skyrocketing....but still watching out.

[peterpl]

Originally Posted by dtwer

I can't speak for other countries but my take is the US will have a fairly speedy recovery as soon as the country opens back up.

Most working people are protected by the EPSLA so the prospect for a large scale unemployment is averted. When employment is stable, recession will not happen.

I would give the stay at home orders through the end of April and most of the country should be back in business right after that. There will be a lot of inventories to be built back up, businesses and manufacturers will be back in high gears.

I really really really hope your right. I just reduced the rent in one of my properties by half to a young family who's main income earner has lost his job and his wife just gave birth.

If I was in a more better financial situation I would have even done more but I've lost ALOT as well. Thats why I'm saying as a purist watch lover myself I cant see myself spending not even $10k on a watch right now and only 6 months ago I was happy to drop $30k on a DD40 no probs.

[imperial2687]

Originally Posted by Ranger67

Been trying to get a Sub for 2.5 years at mrsp and thought due to the situation (sadly) I might be able to source now, but doesn’t seem the case.

I think that the majority of ongoing Rolex commercial activity is in US ADs. As the Brits on TRF have said, there is no hope in the UK. However, Watches of Switzerland CEO said yesterday they are looking to open end of June. If and when the likes of Goldsmiths open, I think it will resort to business as usual with flippers getting preference and us mere mortals at the back of the queue. Any other UK-based thoughts?

[AK797]

Originally Posted by peterpl

I really really really hope your right. I just reduced the rent in one of my properties by half to a young family who's main income earner has lost his job and his wife just gave birth.

If I was in a more better financial situation I would have even done more but I've lost ALOT as well. Thats why I'm saying as a purist watch lover myself I cant see myself spending not even $10k on a watch right now and only 6 months ago I was happy to drop $30k on a DD40 no probs.

My mother has done the same with tenants that cannot work, she also has a key health worker there who is working full time so there is the worry that he could still bring in the virus to her but as he is a key worker we could not throw him out, they have just been separating as much as possible, only share the front door now.

Figures from the NHS today show 92% of those infected were over 60, just 8% under, so there is already mounting pressure to start opening up things and keep the vulnerable isolated to mitigate the economic impact. I suspect in May things will start to open up on a piecemeal basis here.

[904VT]

Originally Posted by RyanO

In times of uncertainty, buy gold, Rolex gold




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Great looking Daytona

[cocoabutter]

Originally Posted by Ranger67

Been trying to get a Sub for 2.5 years at mrsp and thought due to the situation (sadly) I might be able to source now, but doesn’t seem the case.

Hold on, I think you will be able to get one.

[904VT]

Originally Posted by peterpl

I really really really hope your right. I just reduced the rent in one of my properties by half to a young family who's main income earner has lost his job and his wife just gave birth.

If I was in a more better financial situation I would have even done more but I've lost ALOT as well. Thats why I'm saying as a purist watch lover myself I cant see myself spending not even $10k on a watch right now and only 6 months ago I was happy to drop $30k on a DD40 no probs.

Originally Posted by AK797

My mother has done the same with tenants that cannot work, she also has a key health worker there who is working full time so there is the worry that he could still bring in the virus to her but as he is a key worker we could not throw him out, they have just been separating as much as possible, only share the front door now.

Very nice gestures guys.

[Sephiroth]

There are literal ‘bread’ lines in some cities folks. We are approaching Great Depression levels of craziness!

Prices will go down.

[Marcjvr]

Originally Posted by dtwer

I can't speak for other countries but my take is the US will have a fairly speedy recovery as soon as the country opens back up.

Most working people are protected by the EPSLA so the prospect for a large scale unemployment is averted. When employment is stable, recession will not happen.

I would give the stay at home orders through the end of April and most of the country should be back in business right after that. There will be a lot of inventories to be built back up, businesses and manufacturers will be back in high gears.

16 million already unemployed over 3 weeks. Capitalism drives the US economy, not hand outs from the government. Right now the us economy is mostly shut down. This is not a problem that can be solved by the government signing new acts in to place.

[inadeje]

As per my watch portfolio on C24, certain pieces that i have became purportedly less valuable. To characterize what this means, I was up for example X% on a piece and now its still up Y% but the % is less than it was. The % are tiny though, like minus 1-3% before and after covid19. C24 isn’t true value mind but it does serve as a barometer I guess. I don’t care because I don’t buy watches as investments, this is a hobby.

[RoscoPico]

Originally Posted by HTV88

Nice watch bro, how long did you wait for it?

yes that sure is.

prices going to/have dipped ? of course. we may very well be on the edge of a massive recession. not sure how much watch prices dropped a decade ago as i wasn't collecting, but real estate and the stock market sure dropped then.

are some s/s watches, especially rolex, overpriced to begin with, yup. and i myself am a collector. not including current economic trends i would guess this watch market segment softens a little anyway.

[socalwatchcollector]

Originally Posted by marcjvr

16 million already unemployed over 3 weeks. Capitalism drives the us economy, not hand outs from the government. Right now the us economy is mostly shut down. This is not a problem that can be solved by the government signing new acts in to place.

+1 The shit storm here is just getting warmed up. The F5 is coming soon. The imbeciles at the banks are telling people NOT to call because they can't handle it all. Housing is next to go. Once that collapses there will be a plethora of watches on the market at good prices. Just get with the sellers before the grey's do. They sit on here and grab every watch they can from private sellers then re-list it a few days later for more money. Witnessed it too many times to count in the 7 years of being on here.

[abrace]

The Federal minimum wage is $7.25, and the Federal unemployment kicker of $600 a week is worth about $15 an hour of a 40 hour job. That plus the normal state unemployment means many unemployed people will be better off out of work than in. This is going to give the impression of not being as bad off as things really are...but what happens what that stimulus runs out?

When restaurants do reopen, my guess is they will reopen with reduced capacity (every other table type stuff) in an effort to reduce virus spread. This means a bunch of people arent going back to work and the business owners may not even be able to break even without rent/lease reductions. Which many will get as some rent is better than no rent. So we have restautant owners barely treading water even with rent reductions. Landlords having reduced revenue. Everyone cutting back on all discretionary purchases. Cutting/reducing cableTV, lowering speeds on their broadband services, cutting out Netflix, Dropping Sirius, buying cheaper groceries, not eating out...and on and on. Classic deep recession.


Sports stadiums and other dense types of event may not resume until a vaccine. Travel is going to be damaged for years, just as it was after 2001. The airline industry did not recover to pre 2009 employment numbers until late 2017...and that wasn't a pandemic that especially impacted travel like this one. The public can have a long memory. I know people that to this day won't fly on an airplane because of 9/11. How many people are going to avoid cruise ships for the forseeable future? What will that do to the economy of the Fort Lauderdale area, whose hotel community,airport, and restaurants were built up specifically to handle those passengers? What about Boeing who was already in trouble?

While this situation is an immediate shock to some, the effects will lag for many as demand destruction slowly works it way through the economy. I still have my job and it appears stable, but my end of year bonus is evaporating before my eyes...and I am in a very in-demand business right now. The expected bad debt from customers alone is going to hurt is. Not getting a bonus is going to impact my desire to purchase watches, and my personal debt situation is better than a lot of people. Im in OK shape.


So for the rolex market, I think we will see a gradual rampdown in prices and not a hard crash as many say. Back in 2005 I bought a TT Submariner for 15% off MSRP from an AD. In 2009 I bought a stainless sport model also from an AD for 5% off MSRP. I don't think its unreasonable we get to those levels again. We will see prices drop on everything in the economy for a while. I am having a home improvement project done, relatively small one ($21K) and my contractor said he has had half of his bids pulled back and people asking for their deposits back in the last 4 weeks. He gave me a 5% discount to continue with my project, which I gladly did.

To think Rolex is going to be immune just isn't realistic. It is the definition of a discretionary purchase.

[Arcticsub]

Originally Posted by dtwer

I can't speak for other countries but my take is the US will have a fairly speedy recovery as soon as the country opens back up.

Most working people are protected by the EPSLA so the prospect for a large scale unemployment is averted. When employment is stable, recession will not happen.

I would give the stay at home orders through the end of April and most of the country should be back in business right after that. There will be a lot of inventories to be built back up, businesses and manufacturers will be back in high gears.

This post makes no sense to me.

Back in business at the end of April? Talk about pipe dreams.

[socalwatchcollector]

Originally Posted by Arcticsub

This post makes no sense to me.

Back in business at the end of April? Talk about pipe dreams.

It's without a doubt a bang the head on the wall moment.

[MiamiGT4]

Prices will go down, but by how much will depend on the model. Vintage Daytona’s, Subs, etc. probably won’t be effected because of the type of buyer and lack of hordes of speculators. We’ve already seen some prices drop, or at least availability on ceramic steel sports models as the ‘flippers’ get shaken out of the market and, let’s face it, flippers add to hype in any bull market. Are we in a a Rolex bear market? No. But even in bull markets prices fluctuate.

People who say prices are completely unaffected have narrow vision, markets in China and Italy absolutely effect how much we pay for second hand watches here in the USA.

I think if you want prices to stay where they are, you’ll say prices are stable. If you want prices to drop, you’ll see it that way. The market will tell. But, if prices are dropping we probably won’t all agree on it for another 2 months or so as cash becomes scarce for some, even if we start going back to more normal times. The guy making $150K plus working for a multi-national will still be buying or holding. The flipper, small dealer, or independent contractor who has taken a big hit will be selling to raise cash and that means more supply coupled with lighter demand. Prices will fall, but we won’t all agree it’s happening for a little while yet.

[Maverick_1908]

Originally Posted by abrace

The Federal minimum wage is $7.25, and the Federal unemployment kicker of $600 a week is worth about $15 an hour of a 40 hour job. That plus the normal state unemployment means many unemployed people will be better off out of work than in. This is going to give the impression of not being as bad off as things really are...but what happens what that stimulus runs out?

When restaurants do reopen, my guess is they will reopen with reduced capacity (every other table type stuff) in an effort to reduce virus spread. This means a bunch of people arent going back to work and the business owners may not even be able to break even without rent/lease reductions. Which many will get as some rent is better than no rent. So we have restautant owners barely treading water even with rent reductions. Landlords having reduced revenue. Everyone cutting back on all discretionary purchases. Cutting/reducing cableTV, lowering speeds on their broadband services, cutting out Netflix, Dropping Sirius, buying cheaper groceries, not eating out...and on and on. Classic deep recession.


Sports stadiums and other dense types of event may not resume until a vaccine. Travel is going to be damaged for years, just as it was after 2001. The airline industry did not recover to pre 2009 employment numbers until late 2017...and that wasn't a pandemic that especially impacted travel like this one. The public can have a long memory. I know people that to this day won't fly on an airplane because of 9/11. How many people are going to avoid cruise ships for the forseeable future? What will that do to the economy of the Fort Lauderdale area, whose hotel community,airport, and restaurants were built up specifically to handle those passengers? What about Boeing who was already in trouble?

While this situation is an immediate shock to some, the effects will lag for many as demand destruction slowly works it way through the economy. I still have my job and it appears stable, but my end of year bonus is evaporating before my eyes...and I am in a very in-demand business right now. The expected bad debt from customers alone is going to hurt is. Not getting a bonus is going to impact my desire to purchase watches, and my personal debt situation is better than a lot of people. Im in OK shape.


So for the rolex market, I think we will see a gradual rampdown in prices and not a hard crash as many say. Back in 2005 I bought a TT Submariner for 15% off MSRP from an AD. In 2009 I bought a stainless sport model also from an AD for 5% off MSRP. I don't think its unreasonable we get to those levels again. We will see prices drop on everything in the economy for a while. I am having a home improvement project done, relatively small one ($21K) and my contractor said he has had half of his bids pulled back and people asking for their deposits back in the last 4 weeks. He gave me a 5% discount to continue with my project, which I gladly did.

To think Rolex is going to be immune just isn't realistic. It is the definition of a discretionary purchase.

Great common sense post my friend. Stay safe.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Wahlberg]

Originally Posted by Golf&Watches

100% that there are much lower prices.
I have just bought a truly like new in box 16710 (2005 complete set) for £6,500.
The buyer paid £9,000 for it 18 months ago, he contacted the usual UK greys, three said they weren't buying, one offered £5k.
I am a well known collector of 16710's (I currently own 7), the owner contacted me, I told him that he would get more than the current £5k offer, he did not want t risk eBay, he said that he'd be happy with £6k (that would buy him a month or two of time), I did not know the watch in person (I knew the seller as a goo guy), so I said that I'd pay £6.5, I've let him know that he can buy the watch back at the same price at Nytime on the future.
Yes, prices have changed, I am certain that this is just the beginning.
Stay safe everyone

Could you post some pictures? New in box for 9k UK pounds sounds reasonble.

[Onikage]

Originally Posted by Anton911

sick of the nay slayers and stupid people on this forum who are continually posting threads about Rolex coming down in value.Dreamers who can’t afford these watches,end of story and should buy a Casio and shut up.

You should probably get upset in a less entertaining way if you want these threads to die off.

[francoamerican]

Leading indicators and trailing indicators

[Hollie_Rollie]

Originally Posted by Anton911

Totally agree,sick of the nay slayers and stupid people on this forum who are continually posting threads about Rolex coming down in value.Dreamers who can’t afford these watches,end of story and should buy a Casio and shut up.

Get fired up.

[smym18]

Originally Posted by Onikage

You should probably get upset in a less entertaining way if you want these threads to die off.

Originally Posted by Hollie_Rollie

Get fired up.

He has a Hulk and Daytona. You can see why this topic may upset him

[Cwillis0001]

Originally Posted by Hollie_Rollie

Never. Rolex is impervious.

Originally Posted by Roli4life

Not happening. Please move topic to dreamers, and speculators sub forum;)

Originally Posted by Anton911

Totally agree,sick of the nay slayers and stupid people on this forum who are continually posting threads about Rolex coming down in value.Dreamers who can’t afford these watches,end of story and should buy a Casio and shut up.

Let me take a wild guess. You guys have paid well over retail for some hype pieces and turning to anger and disbelief is easier than admitting that you're the exact kind of sucker that the speculators saw coming a mile away?

You got ripped off, guys. Try not to let it happen again.

[SBR]

Originally Posted by abrace

The Federal minimum wage is $7.25, and the Federal unemployment kicker of $600 a week is worth about $15 an hour of a 40 hour job. That plus the normal state unemployment means many unemployed people will be better off out of work than in. This is going to give the impression of not being as bad off as things really are...but what happens what that stimulus runs out?

When restaurants do reopen, my guess is they will reopen with reduced capacity (every other table type stuff) in an effort to reduce virus spread. This means a bunch of people arent going back to work and the business owners may not even be able to break even without rent/lease reductions. Which many will get as some rent is better than no rent. So we have restautant owners barely treading water even with rent reductions. Landlords having reduced revenue. Everyone cutting back on all discretionary purchases. Cutting/reducing cableTV, lowering speeds on their broadband services, cutting out Netflix, Dropping Sirius, buying cheaper groceries, not eating out...and on and on. Classic deep recession.


Sports stadiums and other dense types of event may not resume until a vaccine. Travel is going to be damaged for years, just as it was after 2001. The airline industry did not recover to pre 2009 employment numbers until late 2017...and that wasn't a pandemic that especially impacted travel like this one. The public can have a long memory. I know people that to this day won't fly on an airplane because of 9/11. How many people are going to avoid cruise ships for the forseeable future? What will that do to the economy of the Fort Lauderdale area, whose hotel community,airport, and restaurants were built up specifically to handle those passengers? What about Boeing who was already in trouble?

While this situation is an immediate shock to some, the effects will lag for many as demand destruction slowly works it way through the economy. I still have my job and it appears stable, but my end of year bonus is evaporating before my eyes...and I am in a very in-demand business right now. The expected bad debt from customers alone is going to hurt is. Not getting a bonus is going to impact my desire to purchase watches, and my personal debt situation is better than a lot of people. Im in OK shape.


So for the rolex market, I think we will see a gradual rampdown in prices and not a hard crash as many say. Back in 2005 I bought a TT Submariner for 15% off MSRP from an AD. In 2009 I bought a stainless sport model also from an AD for 5% off MSRP. I don't think its unreasonable we get to those levels again. We will see prices drop on everything in the economy for a while. I am having a home improvement project done, relatively small one ($21K) and my contractor said he has had half of his bids pulled back and people asking for their deposits back in the last 4 weeks. He gave me a 5% discount to continue with my project, which I gladly did.

To think Rolex is going to be immune just isn't realistic. It is the definition of a discretionary purchase.

Agree 100%

[Bladeshot]

Originally Posted by dtwer

I can't speak for other countries but my take is the US will have a fairly speedy recovery as soon as the country opens back up.

Most working people are protected by the EPSLA so the prospect for a large scale unemployment is averted. When employment is stable, recession will not happen.

I would give the stay at home orders through the end of April and most of the country should be back in business right after that. There will be a lot of inventories to be built back up, businesses and manufacturers will be back in high gears.

This is the way I see it. Not a huge dip in Rolex prices (and I don’t care. I’m not a for-profit member; I just like trading around)... YMMV.

I hope all have a speedy recovery, both health wise and financially. It’s crushing to hear of a lady (above in the thread) located in the UK who had to hand in the keys to her business and walk away. Different areas will experience varied outcomes.

[pkincy]

I listed a TT Daytona and black dial RO 16500 about 3.5 weeks ago and got several offers immediately. Picked two of the buyers and set up a sale, but that was about March 18-20 and the shut down gave both of them cold feet. Frankly I think they wanted to buy for resale so didn't want to go into the troubles holding inventory. At any rate, not having a need to sell I will just bide my time. In the meantime enjoy your watches as I am mine. Prices will likely come down a bit as folks that need to sell do so, but unless you are trying to sell to a restaurant or bar owner I suspect things will recover soon enough.

[sallyhats]

Originally Posted by dtwer

I can't speak for other countries but my take is the US will have a fairly speedy recovery as soon as the country opens back up.

Most working people are protected by the EPSLA so the prospect for a large scale unemployment is averted. When employment is stable, recession will not happen.

I would give the stay at home orders through the end of April and most of the country should be back in business right after that. There will be a lot of inventories to be built back up, businesses and manufacturers will be back in high gears.

Two family restaurants in manhattan have closed their doors. Forget going to eat in, no one is ordering food. They had to close and layoff everyone. 15% of all restaurants that are closed are closed permanently. Please stop saying things like the economy will be up an running by May 1st. A lot of smart people are scared we wont be up and running by the end of the year. I for sure will not be going out unless there is medication for this, not some patch work or a vaccine.

[Hollie_Rollie]

Originally Posted by Cwillis0001

Let me take a wild guess. You guys have paid well over retail for some hype pieces and turning to anger and disbelief is easier than admitting that you're the exact kind of sucker that the speculators saw coming a mile away?

You got ripped off, guys. Try not to let it happen again.

Haha good one. Nope, In my specific case (and if you looked at my post history or previous posts prior to your snarky comment that severely missed it’s mark) I’m a huge advocate for the market being over for the flippers and subsequent price crash.

All my rolexes( BLNR, Sub ND, and Sea-Dweller) have been purchased at msrp plus tax

But love your energy, keep fighting the good fight

Oh and the comment you quoted of mine, I was being facetious. This is about the 100th thread on this. It’s getting exhausting hence I gave an exhausted response

[Cwillis0001]

Originally Posted by Hollie_Rollie

Haha good one. Nope, In my specific case (and if you looked at my post history or previous posts prior to your snarky comment that severely missed it’s mark) I’m a huge advocate for the market being over for the flippers and subsequent price crash.

All my rolexes( BLNR, Sub ND, and Sea-Dweller) have been purchased at msrp plus tax

But love your energy, keep fighting the good fight

Oh and the comment you quoted of mine, I was being facetious. This is about the 100th thread on this. It’s getting exhausting hence I gave an exhausted response

Hey, if I missed the mark I missed the mark. Been wrong before and I'll surely be wrong again. I am however glad that you identified my comment as mere snark, because that's what I was hoping to project. No true hard feelings or battle lines drawn or any stuff like that. Enjoy your watches.