RIP vintage Rolex hobby?

[HERITAGE82]

Originally Posted by Clay

What is it that you people expect…???

The price of EVERYTHING has gone up…

Do you honestly expect the price of a fine vintage watch (Be it Rolex or otherwise) to come down over time…???

One of the reasons that vintage Rolex watches have gone up in price is because they are so sought after…

If you can't afford to play in the game (A game which I myself can no longer compete…I bought my first DRSD for $4000.) then that's just to bad…

It's what we call: "The way of the world…!!!"…

I agree with the sentiment of you "pay to play". My issue is the fact that it's become so "trendy." Therefore wealthy non enthusiast are buying up (and driving up the prices) the very pieces that collectors and hobbyist would treasure.

[watchcrank]

:-) Man, I feel old. First SS datejust I bought new was $700. full retail at Bailey, Banks & Biddle. First used cream dial Explorer 2 was $1K & a SS 1601 :-)
First 5513 used was $500. Sold my 71 Cuda when I got married for $1850. Prices are as they are and if you are lucky you can sell off for what you have in them. I started with Bubblebacks and sold before the crash in 1983 and bought what I liked after that until I sold off most of the collection in 2005/6. Bought a lot back in 2007 before the crash and ended up about even. You never know, just have some fun and enjoy the positive. M

[Clay]

I'm confused…???
I couldn't buy my house today for what I paid 21 years ago…
I couldn't buy my car today for what I paid 21 years ago…
In fact I don't think there's anything that I could buy today for what it would have cost me 21 years ago…
Why should Rolex watches be any different…???

[QueueCumber]

Originally Posted by JohnBaker3

+1

Amazingly, the vintage Rolex market may be the ONLY market out there that ISN'T manipulated by the boys on Wall Street...

Every other headline lately has been about LIBOR, FX, gold, silver, equitities and the relentless High Frequency Trading....

I guess it is refreshing to see something behave on the free market ideas of "supply and demand".....

You go Rolex!

Originally Posted by psv

Almost John, a large part of new money/buyers are if not trust fund babies but bankers so they are certainly influencing the demand, ergo the prices.

Hence, I'm not crying foul or do away with free markets, I'm simply making the observation that prices of vintage Rolex have now gone beyond the levels of normal hobbyist to be able to get any quality pieces.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...n-in-fund.html

[Old Expat Beast]

Once the Mainland China market gets a taste for vintage Rolex in the way they have had for new Rolex in the last decade or so, all bets will be off.

[Franks07]

Yikes. Very interesting thread that's for sure. I guess for once in my life I might find myself on the inside looking out on the vintage Rolex conundrum that has been very eloquently debated here.
I happen to be holding (next week when Bob Ridley returns it after a very expensive "vintage tuneup" that he is so well known for) an all original one owner (my father) Submariner ref. 6205 that I am now going to have to decide what to do with. Granted...a very good problem to have;but seriously, do I really want to walk around with perhaps $50k or more on my wrist or sellout and put the money into something else more useful to me or my kids? I will have to make a decision on this while also wrestling with the age old question of do I sell it now or anticipate continued explosive demand (and ridiculous prices) for the truly rare one owner all original Submariners like the stunning 6205 that I am blessed to be in possession of.
For the short term I plan to wear it as it is a very cool family heirloom; but, I am not at all sure how long I will be able to justify owning such a piece that very few people (if any) in my business or social circle will even notice or appreciate...for now it will be my little secret on my wrist. Pics to follow in the next week or so when she comes back from her extended vacation at Club Ridley :)
Thanks to all for they very insightful comments...love this Forum.

[Dr. Robert]

Why worry about vintage????? Buy new, live as long as me....and your Rolex will be vintage.............................
bought new in Hong Kong in 1973 ( I won't sadden you with the price paid)



the other one....my dad's......also bought new in HK in '73...........................



live long & prosper compadres.

[Kingair]

Originally Posted by Dr. Robert

Why worry about vintage????? Buy new, live as long as me....and your Rolex will be vintage.............................
bought new in Hong Kong in 1973 ( I won't sadden you with the price paid)



the other one....my dad's......also bought new in HK in '73...........................



live long & prosper compadres.

Great 1655's Bob

Congrats again

HAGOne

[jfmiii]

anything that the wealthy are interested in has and will continue to go up in value. you have seen enormous wealth creation since 2009 bc of the easy money policies of central banks around the world. real estate and stock mkt prices have rebounded and made very wealthy people wealthier. they have had a ton of money to throw into art, real estate, stocks, collector cars, and yes, watches. until this easy money goes away, prices will continue increase very quickly. and as China becomes more involved in the hobby, the sky is the limit. i really think you could see something like DRSDs in the $100k range in the next 5-10 years with no problem. run of the mill 5513s and 1680s will be $15-20k. prices on a lot of these watches have doubled in the past 5 years and the hobby is just becoming mainstream. Look at the new Omega 300 Master, it has fake patina and is a copy of a 2913. They made that watch bc there is HUGE interest in vintage. wait until Rolex releases a 6263 panda homage and watch those go $100k+ also. it really is buy now or be priced out forever. bc once these uber-wealthy people buy these watches, they dont sell them bc they never have to. what is another $25k to a guy with $30,000,000 in his bank account? that is who we are competing with.

[MitchSteel]

Who knows what Main Land China will want.....could be Rolex, could be Breitling, could be Vostok.......I'm sticking to Vintage Rolex because I like them.

There is no bubble to burst, things in demand command a premium, that's all.

[eco8gator]

Bottom line...you have to pay to play.

If you want vintage then save up.

My grail is a Rolex milsub...hell I'd even be happy with a Tudor milsub.

From there a Comex SD or Sub.

Both way more than Im willing to pay and will only get farther out of reach the later I wait.

[RC2]

Understand prices increase - not the issue. Look at college in the 90s vs college today; huge increase in cost vs folks income.

The fact is prices have increased a lot in a short amount of time to the point some vintage collectors ( generally speaking of course) are not paying these prices but folks caught up in the vintage fad are driving up prices.



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[HERITAGE82]

Originally Posted by RC2

The fact is prices have increased a lot in a short amount of time to the point some vintage collectors ( generally speaking of course) are not paying these prices but folks caught up in the vintage fad are driving up prices.



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Shawnnyang]

Hope you guys are insulted but I just got into vintage rolexes and has admittedly contributed in a very small way to increasing prices by buying watches at current prices.

One thing I do want to note is that this hobby - unlike many others that have been uncool on account of the masses, will remain exclusive to some extent because they sure aren't making any more vintage rolexes on an assembly aline (aside from fakes).

Another thing that I want to note is that the price hike- as well all things recently may be driven in large part by China. I live in Hong Kong and mainland tourists don't give a shit if it's marked up 10% or 100%.

[MitchSteel]

^ well, in that case, do us a favour and tell them to buy Vintage Sports Models......

[Beaumont Miller II]

My observations and some confessions:
1. Anybody that has bought and then sold a watch for more money is in some part responsible for the escalation of prices. I have never met anyone that bought a Vintage Rolex and tried to lose money when they sold it. Confession: I made money on a watch sale, lost some too.
2. Cell phones, computers, and televisions get cheaper over time. Vintage Rolex does not. They just are not making anymore plastic crystal Subs. Why would someone think they should get cheaper? A 1970 Chevy Nova costs more today too.
3. Dealers are paying much more for the watches they bring to market than they used to. In addition to that the costs of travel to find the watches have increased as well. When dealers pay more, we all pay more. Confession: I feel like I always pay more no matter what I buy, but I got a great deal on my Toyota Tundra last year, which will depreciate because they are still making them.
4. My guess is that if you looked at a period in the last six years when the SP500 was at its lowest, you would also find during that same time many popular watches were not selling well. Now that SP500 is at or near its peak you see watches selling for prices that were much higher than before. I don't know people that sell a bunch of stock to buy a watch, but instead know some who have seen their net worth rise and feel that they can splurge on a 1665 at 12k. Trust fund babies are not driving this market. Confession I bought a watch with my line of credit and so my banker may be partly at fault.
5. To some degree this rise in prices may be healthy because if someone truly believes this is a bubble then they are less likely to speculate on a purchase with a quick flip in mind, thus leaving the collectors in the market. Confession: I am looking to purchase another, and part of me hopes I find it sooner rather than later.
6. I also think its healthy to collect other brands of watches and was interested to see some pics of the Omegas and Blacpains at the GTG in London. When I see what the prices of certain Heuers, Omegas, and Blacpains are going for these days it makes me realize that the rise in cost to purchase a vintage watch is not just a Rolex phenomenon. What makes more sense a 13k Heuer Monaco or a 1665 Great White? Confession: each person needs to answer that question for themselves.

Enjoy the weekend everyone.

[mluther]

“Every important watch I bought, when I bought it, many people said I overpaid. Now, the prices I paid look ridiculously cheap. I take a view, and usually my view is to go for high quality and rarity.” Quote by Alfredo Paramico, in article link posted by QC above. Who knows where the market is going. A long term view is often the best play.

[Old Expat Beast]

Rolex is currently running an exhibition in Hong Kong, featuring a few vintage Daytonas (including two Paul Newmans), and with Chinese-only explanatory signage. Make of that what you will.

[Vincent65]

Originally Posted by QCASANOVA

I agree with the sentiment of you "pay to play". My issue is the fact that it's become so "trendy." Therefore wealthy non enthusiast are buying up (and driving up the prices) the very pieces that collectors and hobbyist would treasure.

I think there's a considerable dollop of assumption here. Who/where are these 'trendy' 'non-enthusiasts' I wonder…? Speculation. There may well be some who buy at the very top end of the market also as potential investments, but I'd guess they would still profess more than a passing interest in horology. I reckon if you asked anyone who had bought one, they would say they are passionate and enthusiastic about it, particularly because they're not cheap. You'd have to do a case-by-case interview process to try to support that assumption/argument. They may not obsessively frequent online discussions about them, but who is to say that all people are not equally entitled to buy a decent old watch?! So-called 'hobbyists' and 'collectors' have no more right to them than anyone else, IMHO. Also, what is seen as 'trendy' is totally subjective - many think vintage/antique items are old junk, and that 'new' is trendy!

[MonBK]

Everything goes up except boats.

[Puffy]

Originally Posted by JohnBaker3

Amazingly, the vintage Rolex market may be the ONLY market out there that ISN'T manipulated by the boys on Wall Street...

Actually John, not true, there are watch funds out there that have been around for years and they can indeed be cooked up to be more than what they are to still remain within the rules.

Debt needs to be underwritten and we're back to Wall St and the Square Mile. "We'll underwrite and this is what we want funds to be priced at to offer ~x return".

And now the UK FCA says the UCIS funds can only be marketed to investors with approx £250k to throw at them.

Article below published today.

Watch funds offer investment in limited editions

Watches, in common with other “passion” investments such as art and wine, do not behave like ordinary commodities. Value can be hard to ascribe, and sales depend on a small number of potential buyers.
Those buyers tend to be collectors, a pursuit that comes with risks attached.

Justin Koullapis, co-founder and director of Watch Club, a vintage retailer, says: “Watches are artefacts with subjective attributes; it’s not just a numbers game. There are reasons why ugly watches don’t increase in price. It’s difficult to strip out emotion.”
Nevertheless, a report published this year by private bank Coutts found that fine watches had risen in value 176 per cent since 2005. With UK base rates stuck at 0.5 per cent, some investors see watches as an alluring prospect.
There are a select few funds on offer. One of the best known is Precious Time, run by Elite Advisers and established in 2010 by Alfredo Paramico, an Italian banker and watch collector. The fund had a reported €23.6m under management at the end of 2012 – representing 500 watches.
The Watch Fund operates on similar lines. It is run by Dominic Khoo, a former Antiquorum and Spink valuation expert, and has offices in Geneva, Hong Kong and Singapore. For $250,000 or more, investors can buy into the fund and receive a personal portfolio of watches of equivalent value.
Mr Khoo says the fund offers the ability to acquire “queue-cutting watches and extreme limited editions”. It has 30 investors with a total of $25m in more than 100 watches.
Most investors receive and wear the timepieces, although as Mr Khoo says: “We once faced the situation of a client who asked us to video ourselves putting the watches in a safe-deposit box and FedEx-ing them the key.”
The watch fund concept is becoming more common, as investors recognise the potential value of a pristine watch stored safely.
London-based retailer Watchfinder, with 12 years’ experience buying and selling used watches, is considering setting up a fund. “We have people ring us up and ask us to buy three or four of a certain watch and put them in the safe with the box and papers,” says Lloyd Amsdon, co-founder. “Then they ring up after two or three years and say: ‘Right, I want to get out of that; find me something else.’
“We had a Patek Philippe that the customer bought for £300,000 and sold 18 months later for £425,000 without ever wearing it.”
When it comes to assets, two brands come up time and again: Rolex and Patek Philippe. But the funds buy other brands, and experts have their own ideas about which is currently undervalued.
For Mr Koullapis, it is 1950s Breitling Navitimers. However, this is not a market given to surprises.
“[Most] watches are not investment grade,” says Mr Khoo. “We sift through thousands of watches monthly to arrive at our purchases.”
With the top end of the market ruled by Patek Philippes and Rolexes, the future of watch funds could lie further down, at a level where short-term gains on a wider range of watches might be possible, and trades are common enough for pricing information to come into the market.
Watchfinder’s fund would work along such lines, says Mr Amsdon, offering investors the chance to buy into a portfolio with just a few thousand pounds and for their money to be invested in models from Bremont to Bulgari.
This year, unregulated collective investment schemes (UCIS investments) such as funds investing in watches, wines or stamps, had new restrictions applied. The UK Financial Conduct Authority has ruled that schemes can be marketed only to investors with either annual incomes of more than £100,000 or with more than £250,000 to invest.
It remains to be seen what impact this will have on initiatives such as that proposed by Watchfinder.
-------------------------------------------
Performance: How they compare
What do returns on watch funds look like and how much do they cost?
Elite Advisers’ Precious Time fund claims an annual average return of 15 per cent, but recently it has returned closer to 12 per cent. Watch Fund says its investors expect 20-30 per cent returns after a period of two to three years, and that it has averaged 10-15 per cent annually.
Watchfinder’s inventory has grown in value by 6.6 per cent a year on average.
By comparison, the fine wine investment market has returned an average growth of 12.1 per cent for the past 25 years.
Fund management fees vary, but are generally high. Precious Time charges a fee of 2.5 per cent and takes a cut of 20 per cent if profit exceeds 5 per cent.
At Watch Fund, investors part with 5 per cent as a purchase fee. If they leave the fund, they pay 10 per cent of their profit or 5 per cent of the total sale price, whichever is higher.
Watchfinder expects to charge clients a performance fee of about 10 per cent.

[MATCH1969]

Originally Posted by mluther

“Every important watch I bought, when I bought it, many people said I overpaid. Now, the prices I paid look ridiculously cheap. I take a view, and usually my view is to go for high quality and rarity.” Quote by Alfredo Paramico, in article link posted by QC above. Who knows where the market is going. A long term view is often the best play.

+1

[Suprageex]

Originally Posted by mluther

“Every important watch I bought, when I bought it, many people said I overpaid. Now, the prices I paid look ridiculously cheap. I take a view, and usually my view is to go for high quality and rarity.” Quote by Alfredo Paramico, in article link posted by QC above. Who knows where the market is going. A long term view is often the best play.

Stop it Michael, comments like this make it easier on my mind to sell off a couple of pieces, add some cash & go for a 6263

[rootbeer7]

If we´re a bit honest though, aren't we all hoping the little piece we bought a few years ago, becomes the new grail?? We would then be hard pushed not to make a good return and find the next one?

[Old Expat Beast]

Originally Posted by rootbeer7

If we´re a bit honest though, aren't we all hoping the little piece we bought a few years ago, becomes the new grail?? We would then be hard pushed not to make a good return and find the next one?

You might think that. I can't possibly comment.

[HERITAGE82]

Originally Posted by Vincent65

I think there's a considerable dollop of assumption here. Who/where are these 'trendy' 'non-enthusiasts' I wonder…? Speculation. There may well be some who buy at the very top end of the market also as potential investments, but I'd guess they would still profess more than a passing interest in horology. I reckon if you asked anyone who had bought one, they would say they are passionate and enthusiastic about it, particularly because they're not cheap. You'd have to do a case-by-case interview process to try to support that assumption/argument. They may not obsessively frequent online discussions about them, but who is to say that all people are not equally entitled to buy a decent old watch?! So-called 'hobbyists' and 'collectors' have no more right to them than anyone else, IMHO. Also, what is seen as 'trendy' is totally subjective - many think vintage/antique items are old junk, and that 'new' is trendy!

I think the term wealthy was misunderstood in my post. I am not talking about people buying in the big leagues of watch collecting spending in the excess of $20,000 or so. Yes, those people are not buying blindly at all since it is a huge chunk of money. I am more speaking to the fad/trend of vintage watch wearing, such as been seen in magazines as well as many major brands coming out with heritage models replicating the vintage patina and so forth.

My point is that the "well off" for use of a better term now see these items and where there used to be say 10 buyers for a nice $3-6,000 vintage Rolex there are now say 30 buyers so the supply is dwindling. These buyers are not buying them for collecting or investing purposes. They literally are seeing them becoming mainstream and wanting one. A few thousand dollars on a watch is a lot of money, but it also is not outrageous for a person to have a few multiple thousand dollar watches and know nothing about them other than "they look nice". So now instead of their collections consisting of all modern pieces they have one (or a few) vintage to throw on with certain outfits as part of their wardrobe. There is nothing wrong with these people in any way since we all follow some fad/trend in one way or another. I was just pointing out that having a cool vintage watch just isn't as exclusive as it once was and since there are more buyers (due to the new fad/trend of wearing vintage) the prices are rising as the supply is diminishing.

Don't even get me started on NATO straps which I love, but they sell them at Target/J-crew and many other retail stores so I personally am put off from wearing them for now since I go to a restaurant and everyone and their mother (literally I see moms wearing Subs on NATO straps) has them on.

I guess I am just a grouch when I like something and it becomes popular. I have always liked being unique and can remember when I would wear my vintage watches and NATO straps and people would look at me funny and I enjoyed it.

[Robbyvm]

i love all vintage items (altough i must say i'm not realy into vintage women)

Guitars
Cars
Motorcycles
Fourniture
Watches
...

the last 25 years i've been collecting all of the above, when i found what i liked and i could afford it, i bought it.
none of the above has decreased in value in the past 25 years but the most important criterium is/was that it is an item that was at the time of fabrication of construction consedered as high quality/reference brand...

rolex watches have always been a high quality/reference so when it becomes rarer and the originality is conserved, the price goes up
porsche cars idem
Triump, HD motorcycles idem
Fender, Gibson guitars idem
Eames furniture idem
...

i don't see the big issue here, yes it becomes more and more expensive but as stated above, nobody complains that the watches (or other items) they collect become more valuable right ?
look for a fantastic example in the price range you can afford and you will never lose in the long run

[Clay]

Originally Posted by Robbyvm

i love all vintage items (altough i must say i'm not realy into vintage women)

I wasn't either until my wife hit 50...

[powerfunk]

Yes, the prices of the "more desireable" vintage Rolexes have gone crazy in the past few years. I believe that exponentially more people nowadays know about Milsubs, Comex, Paul Newmans, 1655's, DRSD's etc. than they did a decade ago. But these watches are not the entirety of vintage Rolex!

If you're willing to define "desireable" for yourself, there are plenty of great vintage Rolex values left. Bombe lugs, barked gold, logo dials, Oysterquartzes...there are so many cool little quirks in Rolex's history that I find no need to obsess over the same 5-6 models that have already been researched/hyped so thoroughly.

[Vincent65]

Originally Posted by QCASANOVA

I think the term wealthy was misunderstood in my post. I am not talking about people buying in the big leagues of watch collecting spending in the excess of $20,000 or so. Yes, those people are not buying blindly at all since it is a huge chunk of money. I am more speaking to the fad/trend of vintage watch wearing, such as been seen in magazines as well as many major brands coming out with heritage models replicating the vintage patina and so forth.

My point is that the "well off" for use of a better term now see these items and where there used to be say 10 buyers for a nice $3-6,000 vintage Rolex there are now say 30 buyers so the supply is dwindling. These buyers are not buying them for collecting or investing purposes. They literally are seeing them becoming mainstream and wanting one. A few thousand dollars on a watch is a lot of money, but it also is not outrageous for a person to have a few multiple thousand dollar watches and know nothing about them other than "they look nice". So now instead of their collections consisting of all modern pieces they have one (or a few) vintage to throw on with certain outfits as part of their wardrobe. There is nothing wrong with these people in any way since we all follow some fad/trend in one way or another. I was just pointing out that having a cool vintage watch just isn't as exclusive as it once was and since there are more buyers (due to the new fad/trend of wearing vintage) the prices are rising as the supply is diminishing.

Don't even get me started on NATO straps which I love, but they sell them at Target/J-crew and many other retail stores so I personally am put off from wearing them for now since I go to a restaurant and everyone and their mother (literally I see moms wearing Subs on NATO straps) has them on.

I guess I am just a grouch when I like something and it becomes popular. I have always liked being unique and can remember when I would wear my vintage watches and NATO straps and people would look at me funny and I enjoyed it.

Good post - and I agree with much of it. I know what you mean about 'mainstream' popularity spoiling something, too! BTW, I was referring to those that are in the min. $50K and up to several hundred $K bracket, and that's who I thought you meant by 'wealthy.' I believe the trickle-down effect from the top end is what largely influences the price-hikes in the more 'bread-and-butter' models as demand goes up generally.

Enjoy it anyway, I say!