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Old 28 June 2020, 10:51 PM   #61
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It’s still related to disease prevalence. The former hot spots are not hot now because the disease is not very active there. It’s active in other locations. It’s like the Asian brown marmorated stink bug that was very active in our area a few years back, and now the spotted lantern fly. They were very active in the area, everywhere. Multiple in the house, solarium, etc. I was flushing several a day, then they moved on. They’re still here, but not in my solarium. The prevalence in the community is much less here, and maybe now they’re in MD? The hot spots flattened the curve, slowed the spread, etc. but now the disease prevalence is high elsewhere. If it comes back here, that’s the second wave. The community doesn't have enough exposure for herd immunity, and the antibody testing doesn’t seem to support widespread asymptotic contact. 100% of the medical folks I know that got tested for antibodies without any known infection didn’t have antibodies. Penn Med and CHOP are doing a couple big antibody studies in their health care workers.
Dr B, if a vaccine is fast tracked for say September, what are your thoughts on it’s overall effectiveness? I have asked 3 Doctors here locally, I know, to put me in any first trials, they may get.
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Old 28 June 2020, 10:54 PM   #62
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I have a theory...

Yet to be disproven, but time will tell. The prior hotspots were hot for months. Likely many thousands of people were exposed to it and had no idea. Anti-bodies or no, it appears possible that people built up a tolerance.

When the hot spots shut down, so did the rest of the country. But the rest of the country had less exposure. No tolerance built up. Now that it spread there, and they are all out and about they are getting hit with it.

I can tell you first hand that people in the northeast are packing beaches, homes, and there are all sorts of gatherings outside where people are super close to one another. I see hugging, kissing and hand shaking. People are also indoors as many have returned to work.

Yet the numbers continue to go down? That seems hard to explain. If the NY area explodes once again, I am wrong. If it doesn't, I don't see how I can be wrong.
I would tend to agree with this theory.
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Old 28 June 2020, 11:05 PM   #63
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It’s still related to disease prevalence. The former hot spots are not hot now because the disease is not very active there. It’s active in other locations. It’s like the Asian brown marmorated stink bug that was very active in our area a few years back, and now the spotted lantern fly. They were very active in the area, everywhere. Multiple in the house, solarium, etc. I was flushing several a day, then they moved on. They’re still here, but not in my solarium. The prevalence in the community is much less here, and maybe now they’re in MD? The hot spots flattened the curve, slowed the spread, etc. but now the disease prevalence is high elsewhere. If it comes back here, that’s the second wave. The community doesn't have enough exposure for herd immunity, and the antibody testing doesn’t seem to support widespread asymptotic contact. 100% of the medical folks I know that got tested for antibodies without any known infection didn’t have antibodies. Penn Med and CHOP are doing a couple big antibody studies in their health care workers.
So I think that will be the ultimate answer.

If it comes back to the hotspots, I’m wrong. Clearly. And time will tell.

But imho, based on how contagious this is, if even a dozen people had it, and way more than that have it, the actions and activities of the last few months would mean logically that it should be spreading again.

FWIW, unless I read you wrong, at one point you said the prior hotspots are declining because of the proper following of protocols. In this post you are saying they are declining because the disease is not prevalent.

For me, imo, I’m just doing some basic troubleshooting based on logic. Everyone seems to “know” the answers. Yet the facts continue to change as new data comes to light.

I’m just following the patterns as they emerge and using logic. Even a few cases should be enough to cause huge spread based on previous examples. Unless some kind of natural resistance is building in the population.
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Old 28 June 2020, 11:17 PM   #64
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You said yourself that you got hit first.
My last comment: I did not say that I got hit personally by the virus: what I said is that I wasn't so lucky not to know anyone who caught it.

I know many people that caught it and at least two people who died (one of the two was 54 years old in perfect health with no previous diseases).

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Old 28 June 2020, 11:22 PM   #65
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My last comment: I did not say that I got hit personally by the virus: what I said is that I wasn't so lucky not to know anyone who caught it.

I know many people that caught it and at least two people who died (one of the two was 54 years old in perfect health with no previous diseases).

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I wasn’t talking about you personally.

You said, “we were hit before them” in Europe. That is what I was referring to.
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Old 28 June 2020, 11:53 PM   #66
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I wasn’t talking about you personally.



You said, “we were hit before them” in Europe. That is what I was referring to.
Uh OK, I understand now

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Old 29 June 2020, 12:02 AM   #67
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Uh OK, I understand now

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Brother.
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Old 29 June 2020, 12:20 AM   #68
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So I think that will be the ultimate answer.

If it comes back to the hotspots, I’m wrong. Clearly. And time will tell.

But imho, based on how contagious this is, if even a dozen people had it, and way more than that have it, the actions and activities of the last few months would mean logically that it should be spreading again.

FWIW, unless I read you wrong, at one point you said the prior hotspots are declining because of the proper following of protocols. In this post you are saying they are declining because the disease is not prevalent.
It is both. And one leads to the other.
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Old 29 June 2020, 01:07 AM   #69
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I used to think like some of the people here and thought “ I don’t know anyone who has it” that has changed in the last 2 weeks.

Family in Houston, Mexico City,NYC, Dallas, have tested positive and unfortunately 5 people I know locally have passed away in just last week (just one of them was above 50 years old)

Everyone has the right to think what they want and treat this thing as they wish, just mind the rest of the people and think about your family.

God bless you and your family.
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Old 29 June 2020, 01:39 AM   #70
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I personally knew 2 people who died from contracting Covid 19, both were school teachers, I was sat next to one of them at a restaurant about 5 months ago. Both were elderly.
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Old 29 June 2020, 02:32 AM   #71
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So I think that will be the ultimate answer.

If it comes back to the hotspots, I’m wrong. Clearly. And time will tell.

But imho, based on how contagious this is, if even a dozen people had it, and way more than that have it, the actions and activities of the last few months would mean logically that it should be spreading again.

FWIW, unless I read you wrong, at one point you said the prior hotspots are declining because of the proper following of protocols. In this post you are saying they are declining because the disease is not prevalent.

For me, imo, I’m just doing some basic troubleshooting based on logic. Everyone seems to “know” the answers. Yet the facts continue to change as new data comes to light.

I’m just following the patterns as they emerge and using logic. Even a few cases should be enough to cause huge spread based on previous examples. Unless some kind of natural resistance is building in the population.

Poor statistics with scenario analysis leading the way and based on the Monte Carlo of just a few. If we were looking at statistics, our sample testing globally are heavily populated into those at most risk that skew figures. That is a poor sample of the population and in statistics would have low significance. People that don’t feel well seek testing while those that do, do not. This increasing the perceived mortality rates. Add false positive rates that are very high (statistically) speaking then lower heard immunity by keeping everyone away from each other and funneled all in one place only (grocery store) and it’s a recipe for disaster. Doing this would make even alternative mild bugs, impactful. Same concept as going to a different country and common bugs making you sick.

Unless everyone was wearing P100 respirators with full face masks, really counterintuitive to wear masks but leave eyes exposed. Wearing masks that harbor germs, really is just a way to increase societal sickness if not done fully. How many people really wash their N95s or replace after every single exposure. So my point is masks are false hopes that make us feel safer, but have really poor protocol. Forcing many to wear masks that end up being cloth in many cases where they can’t find or afford is a recipe for disaster and a huge societal burden on health. I don’t see anyone passing out proper masks in poor communities. Even rewashed N95 aren’t the most sanitary. So perhaps minimize covid while increasing things like bacterial pneumonia, which in turn makes co-infection with covid more likely. It makes much more sense for those weakened to isolate themselves as we do with other illnesses, then to expect others to not bring germs to. Just like all other germs we’re going to be exposed to it whether we like it or not, if we haven’t already. Isolation is a good way to decrease heard immunity or at the least delay it and make it more difficult.

H1N1 infected 25% of the global population, lasted 1 1/2 years, and killed over 500k people in conservative estimates. If we would’ve socially distanced I’d be horrified by those results. We would’ve delayed infection rates and by proxy given the virus more time to spread and to a greater proportion. Just like a fire you can either let it burn out quick or cuddle it and blow oxygen on it. Either way gets worse before better. I had family die from both H1N1 and the 2018 influenza. But neither of those were something we held debates over or as a society cared much about. Restrict people from doing stuff now we care. Go figure. The largest difference is social media in 2020 and our desire to virtue signal instead of addressing problems with solutions. Social media’s ability to essentially craft story lines by moderating has made them de facto publishers. That allows generally accepted theories that are not scientifically proven to become fact by group think. But some perspective and the only thing novel is the reaction.
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Old 29 June 2020, 03:54 AM   #72
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Population compliance with masking correlates pretty well with countries’ success in combatting this virus. No mystery there, pretty straightforward. Wear the mask. This is the way.
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Old 29 June 2020, 04:04 AM   #73
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I know two people who passed away and several who were infected. We live in NJ, which was hit hard.
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Old 29 June 2020, 04:07 AM   #74
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Population compliance with masking correlates pretty well with countries’ success in combatting this virus. No mystery there, pretty straightforward. Wear the mask. This is the way.
Exactly.

Take a look at Europe. Nuff said. Hopefully the medical community will bail us out of this one, ASAP.
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Old 29 June 2020, 06:36 AM   #75
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I will wear a mask, I don't know if it would help save someone from contracting the virus from me if I had it. What I do know is this, less of my spittle or droplets that carries the virus would be transmitted to anyone close by than if I wore nothing.

If by wearing a mask I can be even 1% less likely to pass on anything that I have, then, out of respect for the people around me, damn right I will wear the mask. It is basic manners as far as I am concerned. I don't wear the mask for me and would be less than chuffed if someone didn't extend the same courtesy back.
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Old 29 June 2020, 09:08 AM   #76
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Unfortunately, at least here in America, mask wearing (or refusing to) has been highly politicized.
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Old 29 June 2020, 10:43 AM   #77
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A very good friend of mine had it, she's 77 and made a 100% recovery. I know several other people around the country have had it, only one had to be hospitalized and all recovered.

An ex-coworker got it and died, most of his family that lived with him got it, and all survived.

I am being careful and cautious, but not hiding. I'm only going onsite to one of my clients, and I have my own office there and there are only 4-5 other people in the building, so we all feel comfortable not wearing masks.

When I am in public around others, I wear a mask...grocery store, checking in for golf, a restaurant once or twice a week, and it adds up to maybe a total of 30 minutes of mask wearing a week, not a big deal at all, and if it helps even 1%, I'm all for it.
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Old 29 June 2020, 02:15 PM   #78
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Kids and young adults are not dying because they naturally absorb multiple times more vitamin D than Boomers. So pretty simple fix to stay healthy. Start taking large doses of vitamin D daily. I’m hittin 10000iU a day of D now. Just read about the Spanish flu and doctors who treated their patients with Vitamin D and open air sunlight therapy. Damn shame nobody is talking about it.
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Old 29 June 2020, 02:48 PM   #79
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A very good friend of mine had it, she's 77 and made a 100% recovery. I know several other people around the country have had it, only one had to be hospitalized and all recovered.

An ex-coworker got it and died, most of his family that lived with him got it, and all survived.

I am being careful and cautious, but not hiding. I'm only going onsite to one of my clients, and I have my own office there and there are only 4-5 other people in the building, so we all feel comfortable not wearing masks.

When I am in public around others, I wear a mask...grocery store, checking in for golf, a restaurant once or twice a week, and it adds up to maybe a total of 30 minutes of mask wearing a week, not a big deal at all, and if it helps even 1%, I'm all for it.
You expressed this so well, “...being careful and cautious but not hiding..” I completely agree. I also know people that have had the virus, five to be exact and one is a TRF member and a contributor of this thread; but I will say no more to respect their privacy. This is serious, take the necessary precautions, but holding up in a cave and shutting down society is not a proportionate response. You are also right about taking precautions to help other people. I am not really concerned about getting it myself, I don’t WANT it, but am healthy and confident I would recover fine, but if wearing a mask helps protect an elderly or otherwise vulnerable individual I can put up with the inconvenience. I’ll just be SO damm glad when this is all over!!!!!
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Old 29 June 2020, 03:22 PM   #80
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3 weeks ago all of us went back to the office. 2 weeks ago we all had our blood drawn and were tested. 1 of us came back positive. A field guy/ PM who frequently comes into the office.

Last week another PM, who sits maybe 10’ from me, tested positive following a weekend of feeling like he had been run over by a truck. Our first positive resulted in high anxiety throughout the office. The 2nd has been kept under the radar. I didn’t find out he had even been tested until Friday when he came back positive. Concerning. Becoming complacent is going to keep this virus going.
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Old 29 June 2020, 04:48 PM   #81
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My wife is a "key worker" and in the UK that means you have to be tested. She was tested in early April and it was positive so I got a test too - positive. So we've both had it and that must mean (if it as contagious as they say) that our two kids have had it too.
My wife only experienced a loss of taste and smell (no temperature, no dry cough, no illness at all) and would have carried on working if it hadn't been for the test. I was completely asymptomatic - not a thing, in fact I kept up my daily 5k runs (indoor running machine) and HIT workouts all through. Kids showed no sign of a single symptom.
My wife has now been asked to donate blood for plasma as she has the antibodies apparently.
My mum is 77 and all through the 14 day incubation period (when we had no symptoms and therefore had no idea we had it) I continued to visit her out of necessity. She's showed no symptoms but hasn't had a test.
There must be a lot people like us who have had this virus but have had zero symptoms and wouldn't even notice. Because of that I'm dubious about the statistics, especially mortality statistics when expressed as a % of those who have contracted it.
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Old 29 June 2020, 06:24 PM   #82
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You expressed this so well, “...being careful and cautious but not hiding..” I completely agree. I also know people that have had the virus, five to be exact and one is a TRF member and a contributor of this thread; but I will say no more to respect their privacy. This is serious, take the necessary precautions, but holding up in a cave and shutting down society is not a proportionate response. You are also right about taking precautions to help other people. I am not really concerned about getting it myself, I don’t WANT it, but am healthy and confident I would recover fine, but if wearing a mask helps protect an elderly or otherwise vulnerable individual I can put up with the inconvenience. I’ll just be SO damm glad when this is all over!!!!!
Good on you Paul That’s the essence of the rational for wearing a mask. It’s a little bit of protection and inconvenience for the wearer, but the simplest gift to both the strangers and loved ones you encounter every day. It also poses absolutely no ill effects to the wearer, so why not, right?

I desperately want to avoid another shutdown for many reasons. I fear that if we don’t remain vigilant it would happen again here in Michigan, but likely only in the setting of overwhelming our hospitals. Many died both from COVID and from not getting care for other maladies, either out of fear of going to the hospital when needed, or worse inability to access an overwhelmed system in their area. We can get through this if we work together.
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Old 29 June 2020, 10:29 PM   #83
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Kids and young adults are not dying because they naturally absorb multiple times more vitamin D than Boomers. So pretty simple fix to stay healthy. Start taking large doses of vitamin D daily. I’m hittin 10000iU a day of D now. Just read about the Spanish flu and doctors who treated their patients with Vitamin D and open air sunlight therapy. Damn shame nobody is talking about it.
Smart person. Check out the correlation between outbreak areas and proportion of the populations that have vitamin D deficiencies. I’ve been loading up on D since the beginning as well. Sadly, stay at home orders deprive many of their natural vitamin d production if they don’t have a large property to enjoy privately. This disproportionately impacts the poor unfortunately.
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Old 30 June 2020, 05:29 AM   #84
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So I think that will be the ultimate answer.

If it comes back to the hotspots, I’m wrong. Clearly. And time will tell.

But imho, based on how contagious this is, if even a dozen people had it, and way more than that have it, the actions and activities of the last few months would mean logically that it should be spreading again.

FWIW, unless I read you wrong, at one point you said the prior hotspots are declining because of the proper following of protocols. In this post you are saying they are declining because the disease is not prevalent.

For me, imo, I’m just doing some basic troubleshooting based on logic. Everyone seems to “know” the answers. Yet the facts continue to change as new data comes to light.


I’m just following the patterns as they emerge and using logic. Even a few cases should be enough to cause huge spread based on previous examples. Unless some kind of natural resistance is building in the population.
Using your same logic, you contracted the virus and by your own admission, you gave it to your wife.

Do you know how many other people you gave it to? Do you know how many other people your wife gave it to? Do you know if anyone died because you were part of the chain that passed on the virus to your wife and others?
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Old 30 June 2020, 06:06 AM   #85
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I had a guy tell me with a straight face yesterday that the stuff the government is putting in the jet chem trails is not the cause of COVID...that is until they activate it with the 5G towers. He is immune however because he puts a pinch of 20 Mule Team Borax in his morning coffee. I gave him a link to this site.
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Old 30 June 2020, 06:17 AM   #86
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Finished a long day with a PUI for appendics,full PPE .
Such a schlep ,BUT we do it right !!
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3 of my theatre personel tested positive in the one hospital .
They rotated in the Covid ward .
One was sick for a day ,one was admitted ,needed oxygen,discharged after two days and the third is still very sick .

Want to give Covid a try ? See how it goes ?
I don't think so .

Mask
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Distancing .
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Old 30 June 2020, 06:17 AM   #87
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Smart person. Check out the correlation between outbreak areas and proportion of the populations that have vitamin D deficiencies. I’ve been loading up on D since the beginning as well. Sadly, stay at home orders deprive many of their natural vitamin d production if they don’t have a large property to enjoy privately. This disproportionately impacts the poor unfortunately.

Don’t forget salmon, cod liver oil and egg yolk !

Sunlight is also known to deactivate the virus too
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Old 30 June 2020, 06:19 AM   #88
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Don’t forget salmon, cod liver oil and egg yolk !

Sunlight is also known to deactivate the virus too
Heat ...mask, 20min at 60 degrees C in the oven .
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Old 30 June 2020, 06:22 AM   #89
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Kids and young adults are not dying because they naturally absorb multiple times more vitamin D than Boomers. So pretty simple fix to stay healthy. Start taking large doses of vitamin D daily. I’m hittin 10000iU a day of D now. Just read about the Spanish flu and doctors who treated their patients with Vitamin D and open air sunlight therapy. Damn shame nobody is talking about it.

Just curious but why take 10000 iU a day when 4000 is widely considered the safe upper limit?

I’m genuinely asking as I am no expert. I’m taking 1000 per day.
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Old 30 June 2020, 06:24 AM   #90
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My wife sells an immune pack at her practice...

Glutamine
Vit C
Glutathione
Vit D3
Mg
Zinc

I use it daily .
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