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Old 18 May 2018, 12:51 AM   #31
tyler1980
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Ahh... this brings back bad memories for me. I turned down a double sealed one for $36K last August as I thought that was too much to pay. I passed on multiple BNIB examples in the low 40s all the way through up to December. 6 months later, I still don't have a 5712 in my hands and there's no firm ETA on when I will ever get one. I'm wishing I just paid the premium in December and gotten over with it.
thats still close to the current retail and i think the 20% increase took everyone by surprise. So, passing just saved you from overpaying which i probably would have done too
It will come
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Old 18 May 2018, 12:53 AM   #32
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Only if overpaying means mark to market profit?
;-)

I'll take that kind of overpaying all day everyday!

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Old 18 May 2018, 12:57 AM   #33
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Only if overpaying means mark to market profit?
;-)

I'll take that kind of overpaying all day everyday!

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in thought they might jack the 5711 price but not that much. The 12 was unexpected. Its all sepcuation at the end of the day and it is a risk either way. hindsight is 20/20

The 11 has been super hot for a while. The 12 is very new to that kind of attention.
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Old 18 May 2018, 01:02 AM   #34
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in thought they might jack the 5711 price but not that much. The 12 was unexpected. Its all sepcuation at the end of the day and it is a risk either way. hindsight is 20/20

The 11 has been super hot for a while. The 12 is very new to that kind of attention.
Agree mostly. Namely that the increase was unexpected and hindsight is 20/20.

However in this case we get the advantage of hindsight to know it wasn't overpaying. Couldn't have known that then, but we can know that, strictly speaking, it turned out to he the wrong conclusion that buying back then was overpaying with the info we have today.

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Old 18 May 2018, 04:14 AM   #35
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Well, if I had a crystal ball then I wouldn't have sold the Bitcoin I had a few years back. Lost out on 8 figures of upside on that one. Much worse than passing on a 36K 5712/1A come to think of it.

Thankfully, there are other watches I like and have in the pipeline.
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Old 18 May 2018, 08:38 AM   #36
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As has been said if you do not have a strong relationship with an AD, you cannot buy one except on the aftermarket and the going price is 50K. That is really all there is to it. There really is not many for sale so sales are brisk.
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Old 18 May 2018, 10:26 AM   #37
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Who's buying the 5711/1a at $50k?

I’d slam my head in my car door before I would pay ~70% markup on anything.

Not sure of any other way I could say it.

I’ve never wanted ANYTHING that badly.

And I’d sell every watch I had - and give up the hobby if someone ever offered me a price like that for my collection. I’m not going to hold my breath.


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Old 18 May 2018, 12:46 PM   #38
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Well, if I had a crystal ball then I wouldn't have sold the Bitcoin I had a few years back. Lost out on 8 figures of upside on that one
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Old 18 May 2018, 05:03 PM   #39
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There are some people that call it a crystal ball. They take the comforting view that these things are completely random and not foreseeable.

There are others who insist that they have "edge" in forecasting future prices.

Of the latter group there is an even smaller subset within that actually do have edge in their speculative decisions.

We probably all wish we were in the last group. It is painfully difficult and frustratingly rare to be in that last subset. Especially given many get a little taste of what it is like to be there now and again. Much easier to believe it doesn't exist at all..
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Old 18 May 2018, 05:18 PM   #40
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I’d slam my head in my car door before I would pay ~70% markup on anything.

Not sure of any other way I could say it.

I’ve never wanted ANYTHING that badly.

And I’d sell every watch I had - and give up the hobby if someone ever offered me a price like that for my collection. I’m not going to hold my breath.


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To save you from such physical harm I am happy to pay 70% over list for the following so you don't have to ;-):
La Ferrari Aperta
Ferrari TDF
McLaren F1
Ferrari 599 Aperta
5711 (over 2015 list) even though they could be found at list then
Any original Van Gogh or Picasso's (expanded artist list is available)
Numerous older Pateks...

Hope you take this in the good humor as intended. After all I am just trying to save you from head trauma!

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Old 18 May 2018, 06:12 PM   #41
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Originally Posted by galtinuk View Post
To save you from such physical harm I am happy to pay 70% over list for the following so you don't have to ;-):
La Ferrari Aperta
Ferrari TDF
McLaren F1
Ferrari 599 Aperta
5711 (over 2015 list) even though they could be found at list then
Any original Van Gogh or Picasso's (expanded artist list is available)
Numerous older Pateks...

Hope you take this in the good humor as intended. After all I am just trying to save you from head trauma!

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All but one of those is discontinued!
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Old 18 May 2018, 06:17 PM   #42
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All but one of those is discontinued!
Bottom line: in cases where production is limited the market determines the true price not the "manufacturer suggested list price"is

The same argument could have been made for all of those Ferraris while they were in production...chuckle...and numerous other examples (brands and products) if you need more "chuckle^2" to use your term again! ;-)

Perhaps you are not familiar with the Ferrari market...but it was clear the Aperta la Ferrari would be worth quite a bit over MSRP. Same with the 911R...and yes..same with the 5711...seems quite easy to come up with examples of things that the market decides should trade over manufacturer MSRP. From a few % to many% as the market dictates..

The market is typically smarter than both me and you.. unless you were the one paying a few % over MSRP for a 5711 could be had for that or less a few years ago only to be now selling for +100% now!

Now if you had done that you could have a well deserved and more rewarding chuckle..



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Old 18 May 2018, 07:31 PM   #43
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Bottom line: in cases where production is limited the market determines the true price not the "manufacturer suggested list price"is

The same argument could have been made for all of those Ferraris while they were in production...chuckle...and numerous other examples (brands and products) if you need more "chuckle^2" to use your term again! ;-)

Perhaps you are not familiar with the Ferrari market...but it was clear the Aperta la Ferrari would be worth quite a bit over MSRP. Same with the 911R...and yes..same with the 5711...seems quite easy to come up with examples of things that the market decides should trade over manufacturer MSRP. From a few % to many% as the market dictates..

The market is typically smarter than both me and you.. unless you were the one paying a few % over MSRP for a 5711 could be had for that or less a few years ago only to be now selling for +100% now!

Now if you had done that you could have a well deserved and more rewarding chuckle..



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The difference I see is that the 5711 is still available to anyone prepared to wait, the cars on the other hand were NEVER available to anyone but a very select few.
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Old 18 May 2018, 08:10 PM   #44
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The difference I see is that the 5711 is still available to anyone prepared to wait, the cars on the other hand were NEVER available to anyone but a very select few.
Waiting and uncertainty of wait certainly has a price.

And, strictly speaking, there are plenty of examples of zero wait or restrictions on availability. Where the initial list price ends up being far from the market price. Obviously the very nature of market prices is that they are dynamic.

In addition, most would probably agree that some of the valuable watches were very unpopular when they were easily available at dealer showrooms (early Daytona for example). In fact so unpopular that the manufacturer could not sell many units which constrained the future supply.

The 5711 is an example. They were relatively easy to get in 2015. Dont ask me how I know ;-)

The McLaren P1 was also easy to get at MSRP during the pre order phase. Etc etc etc....

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Old 18 May 2018, 08:43 PM   #45
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Waiting and uncertainty of wait certainly has a price.

And, strictly speaking, there are plenty of examples of zero wait or restrictions on availability. Where the initial list price ends up being far from the market price. Obviously the very nature of market prices is that they are dynamic.

In addition, most would probably agree that some of the valuable watches were very unpopular when they were easily available at dealer showrooms (early Daytona for example). In fact so unpopular that the manufacturer could not sell many units which constrained the future supply.

The 5711 is an example. They were relatively easy to get in 2015. Dont ask me how I know ;-)

The McLaren P1 was also easy to get at MSRP during the pre order phase. Etc etc etc....
Understood, nevertheless my point of distinction between all the cars listed and the 5711 is that anyone can still order and get a 5711 at MSRP (at the rate prevailing on the day they take delivery) if they are prepared to wait. So to answer the OP's question, no to me it makes no sense to pay over MSRP for a piece you can purchase new. The wait is part of the ownership experience. Clearly many don't value anything but actual ownership and to them the market price of ownership might well make sense - you only have to read the Rolex thread about AD's to see how many no longer value the AD relationship (which is very sad). Anything no longer produced is a totally different scenario and clearly you HAVE to pay market price - which is the case with all the cars you list.
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Old 18 May 2018, 09:01 PM   #46
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Not me. If money was not an issue and I wanted a watch then maybe.
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Old 18 May 2018, 09:32 PM   #47
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Who's buying the 5711/1a at $50k?

Quote:
Originally Posted by galtinuk View Post
To save you from such physical harm I am happy to pay 70% over list for the following so you don't have to ;-):
La Ferrari Aperta
Ferrari TDF
McLaren F1
Ferrari 599 Aperta
5711 (over 2015 list) even though they could be found at list then
Any original Van Gogh or Picasso's (expanded artist list is available)
Numerous older Pateks...

Hope you take this in the good humor as intended. After all I am just trying to save you from head trauma!

Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using Tapatalk


Ha!!!! of course!!

Touché!

I should have said I would be more likely to take the 70% additional and invest it in my wine collection!!!

(And as mentioned earlier — back 3-4 years back...my AD had with 0 wait.... ...which is the genesis of my comment)



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Old 18 May 2018, 10:02 PM   #48
galtinuk
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Ha!!!! of course!!

Touché!

I should have said I would be more likely to take the 70% additional and invest it in my wine collection!!!

(And as mentioned earlier — back 3-4 years back...my AD had with 0 wait.... ...which is the genesis of my comment)



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Speaking of, there is this book called SWAG (Silver Wine Art and Gold) sort of about cash alternatives and why they can store value pretty well relative to cash which seems to be increasing in supply at an alarming rate!

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Old 18 May 2018, 10:21 PM   #49
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Speaking of, there is this book called SWAG (Silver Wine Art and Gold) sort of about cash alternatives and why they can store value pretty well relative to cash which seems to be increasing in supply at an alarming rate!

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Cool. I will have to check it out.


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Old 18 May 2018, 10:26 PM   #50
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It’s a nice watch but not 50K nice. Thanks for playin.


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Old 24 May 2018, 02:13 PM   #51
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Understood, nevertheless my point of distinction between all the cars listed and the 5711 is that anyone can still order and get a 5711 at MSRP (at the rate prevailing on the day they take delivery) if they are prepared to wait. So to answer the OP's question, no to me it makes no sense to pay over MSRP for a piece you can purchase new. The wait is part of the ownership experience. Clearly many don't value anything but actual ownership and to them the market price of ownership might well make sense - you only have to read the Rolex thread about AD's to see how many no longer value the AD relationship (which is very sad). Anything no longer produced is a totally different scenario and clearly you HAVE to pay market price - which is the case with all the cars you list.
I dont think this is wholly accurate - ive reached out to over 20 AD’s and none would take my name or a deposit...

So, its not just a question of ‘waiting’.
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Old 24 May 2018, 02:42 PM   #52
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Yes, if you have an AD relationship you can probably wait a few years and get one. Or you might get lucky and get it sooner.

But for some people I know, and I’m sure many of you know as well, money is not an issue and paying 50K for a watch like the 5711 is acceptable.

I’m talking about folks who can spend 5-6 thousand $ on a night of sushi in lower Manhattan once a week and not blink.

Would I pay that much for a 5711? Yes, if I really liked that watch and wanted it now and don’t want to wait.

I happen to look at David SW’s site last week and this. 5712 used, listed at over 52K, sold in less than 24 hours (see incoming thread about it)

5726, used Listed at over 52K, sold in less than 12 hours.

5990 listed at over 69k sold in 24 hours.

And the list goes on...




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Old 24 May 2018, 03:03 PM   #53
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I dont think this is wholly accurate - ive reached out to over 20 AD’s and none would take my name or a deposit...

So, its not just a question of ‘waiting’.
if you go in person its going to help. Its an automatic no over the phone almost always.

Think of it as applying for a job. Don't do anything you wouldn't do in that same situation as you are selling yourself in the same way. No one calls up a potential employer and says hey can you hire me. Building a relationship doesnt necessarily mean buying stuff either.
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Old 24 May 2018, 03:26 PM   #54
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if you go in person its going to help. Its an automatic no over the phone almost always.

Think of it as applying for a job. Don't do anything you wouldn't do in that same situation as you are selling yourself in the same way. No one calls up a potential employer and says hey can you hire me. Building a relationship doesnt necessarily mean buying stuff either.
I have been to several in person.

Honestly, its nothing like a job application to me.

Part of this is also a numbers game, no (ie the more dealers you try to contact the higher the chances you may be able to get on a list)? Although i can visit some AD’s, I would think it advisable to try and speak to as manay as possible?

There are only so many cities I travel to or with which I have connection.
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Old 24 May 2018, 03:35 PM   #55
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I have been to several in person.

Honestly, its nothing like a job application to me.

Part of this is also a numbers game, no (ie the more dealers you try to contact the higher the chances you may be able to get on a list)? Although i can visit some AD’s, I would think it advisable to try and speak to as manay as possible?

There are only so many cities I travel to or with which I have connection.
all im saying is there has to be a reason for them to pick you over someone else so at the end of the day they really have to person personally like you.

I think finding one AD that is a good AD and being persistent with them is a better strategy than trying to contact 100 AD's.
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Old 24 May 2018, 03:39 PM   #56
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I dont think this is wholly accurate - ive reached out to over 20 AD’s and none would take my name or a deposit...

So, its not just a question of ‘waiting’.
20? How many local AD’s have you got?
Local family run AD (if one is available) would be my suggestion, visit them a number of times. Engage the owners if you can, wear other pieces of yours of interest and discuss them. Ask about and look at some of their stock that interests you. Do not walk in asking to go on the PP Nautilus list. That will be only worth doing on your 4th or 5th visit several months down the line once there is a recognition of who you are when you enter the shop. Good luck.
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Old 24 May 2018, 03:47 PM   #57
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20? How many local AD’s have you got?
Local family run AD (if one is available) would be my suggestion, visit them a number of times. Engage the owners if you can, wear other pieces of yours of interest and discuss them. Ask about and look at some of their stock that interests you. Do not walk in asking to go on the PP Nautilus list. That will be only worth doing on your 4th or 5th visit several months down the line once there is a recognition of who you are when you enter the shop. Good luck.
Thanks for well wishes :)

I happen to have family spread out across 3 cities and travel for work pretty regularly in another 2 - so, those have been my in person visits.

Made some additional calls to try and widen the net.

Unfortunately, I havent had much success in my own area (SF Bay area).

Though I am sure my approach is not the best - I have not started the in person visits with ‘so...this Nautilus thing’ lol

One really depressing thing is I just found out the main local AD and person I had been talking watches with suddenly left for a new
career path...so, completely back to square one.
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Old 24 May 2018, 03:48 PM   #58
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all im saying is there has to be a reason for them to pick you over someone else so at the end of the day they really have to person personally like you.

I think finding one AD that is a good AD and being persistent with them is a better strategy than trying to contact 100 AD's.
You could well be right, thanks!
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Old 24 May 2018, 09:19 PM   #59
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Ahh... this brings back bad memories for me. I turned down a double sealed one for $36K last August as I thought that was too much to pay. I passed on multiple BNIB examples in the low 40s all the way through up to December. 6 months later, I still don't have a 5712 in my hands and there's no firm ETA on when I will ever get one. I'm wishing I just paid the premium in December and gotten over with it.
I've changed my approach to buying other things in light of this, I've lost out bidding for stuff I wanted because I set reasonable price limits but recently I've decided that I want the item more than the money in my account as the pain of loss is greater. So now I have bought even going over previous limits, so within reason I now buy the item, not the price. Obviously harder to do with expensive watches but principal is the same.
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Old 25 May 2018, 12:27 PM   #60
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I've changed my approach to buying other things in light of this, I've lost out bidding for stuff I wanted because I set reasonable price limits but recently I've decided that I want the item more than the money in my account as the pain of loss is greater. So now I have bought even going over previous limits, so within reason I now buy the item, not the price. Obviously harder to do with expensive watches but principal is the same.
Very well put. But is this just another way of describing the prevalent FOMO that seems to dominate our society these days?
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