5167A Price Drop Maybe?

[offrdmania]

Anyone think the 5167A will drop down to its 2018 prices of high teens to low 20s price range?
I have seen $29K so far. Fingers crossed so I can pick one up finally. Im not willing to pay high 20s or low 30s for an entry level stainless watch.

[Humble michael]

Naw - not going to happen . :-) jmo

[blabus]

I'm similarly curious about what kind of a drop will be experienced by models like the rose gold Nautilus (5711/1R). The other watches that have experienced a similarly crazy increase in prices in recent times are Rolex stainless sport models, but the differences between gray and MSRP are comparatively much smaller for those, given the lower MSRP.

But when it comes to a watch like the 5711/1R, it was trading at a peak of ~$95-110k, with an MSRP of $48k. That's a massive amount of room to drop, but then with watches like the Nautilus, the much more constrained supply (relative to Rolex) has also contributed to the high prices. As someone who's been keenly interested in acquiring a 5711/1R, but unwilling to pay the massive gray market premiums, I wonder what the bottom will be for a model like that. Will they actually drop below MSRP at some point? Or will they level out around $60-70k at the lowest, which will be the time to snag as good a "deal" as you'll ever get on one (outside of waiting many years for one from an AD). Interesting times.

[The Argonaut]

Originally Posted by offrdmania

Anyone think the 5167A will drop down to its 2018 prices of high teens to low 20s price range?
I have seen $29K so far. Fingers crossed so I can pick one up finally. Im not willing to pay high 20s or low 30s for an entry level stainless watch.

I don't that unlikely. Mid 20s is very possible.

[offrdmania]

Originally Posted by The Argonaut

I don't that unlikely. Mid 20s is very possible.

On the lower end of the mid 20s would be my ceiling. Not because I can’t afford it but out of principle.

[The Argonaut]

Originally Posted by offrdmania

On the lower end of the mid 20s would be my ceiling. Not because I can’t afford it but out of principle.

Agreed. I think even amongst the current whirlwind, we might see some around $24-25k.

[cascavel]

Originally Posted by The Argonaut

Agreed. I think even amongst the current whirlwind, we might see some around $24-25k.

I think this is dead on, price wise. Now there will be a premium, but a smaller one, precisely because no one can buy one at MSRP.

[chiscott_29]

My advice is keep watching every dealer on here and keep aware of what’s going on. Prices are almost certain to be lower in 30-60 days, but low $20s for a 5167a is probably pushing it unless you find a dealer that’s starting to panic.

I’d still pay a bit of a premium for trusted dealers you see on here over an unknown party. You’re still buying the dealer.

Another option if you’re more brave is watch private party sellers on C24 and eBay. Pay zero attention to dealer prices on C24 as that’s straight propaganda. Nobody is paying anything close to the prices most dealers are asking.

[blabus]

Originally Posted by chiscott_29

Pay zero attention to dealer prices on C24 as that’s straight propaganda. Nobody is paying anything close to the prices most dealers are asking.

Do you mean that nobody is buying from those dealers, or that everybody is negotiating the price down with them?

[chiscott_29]

Originally Posted by blabus

Do you mean that nobody is buying from those dealers, or that everybody is negotiating the price down with them?

Prices on C24 are like list prices for a car or the list price of a commercial aircraft. The dealers on the platform all set inflated prices on there to give the impression that the "market price" is strong. This was the case even before our current world crisis, but it seems to be holding even now as I've seen very few price reductions.

There are many, many reputable dealers on the C24 platform, so I wouldn't concern myself about that. It's just the prices on several watches are out of touch with reality. If you see something on there, you simply must negotiate. That's all I mean by it.

[Apheaven]

Originally Posted by chiscott_29

Prices on C24 are like list prices for a car or the list price of a commercial aircraft. The dealers on the platform all set inflated prices on there to give the impression that the "market price" is strong. This was the case even before our current world crisis, but it seems to be holding even now as I've seen very few price reductions.

There are many, many reputable dealers on the C24 platform, so I wouldn't concern myself about that. It's just the prices on several watches are out of touch with reality. If you see something on there, you simply must negotiate. That's all I mean by it.

Many dealers don't have access to their inventories thus making it difficult to transact....so that's one part of the problem.

[blabus]

Originally Posted by chiscott_29

Prices on C24 are like list prices for a car or the list price of a commercial aircraft. The dealers on the platform all set inflated prices on there to give the impression that the "market price" is strong. This was the case even before our current world crisis, but it seems to be holding even now as I've seen very few price reductions.

There are many, many reputable dealers on the C24 platform, so I wouldn't concern myself about that. It's just the prices on several watches are out of touch with reality. If you see something on there, you simply must negotiate. That's all I mean by it.

Good to know, thanks!

[Flex368]

Originally Posted by offrdmania

Im not willing to pay high 20s or low 30s for an entry level stainless watch.

Why pay any cent above MSRP if it´s only 'an entry level stainless watch'?

And no, a price drop is not going to happen.

[cascavel]

Originally Posted by Flex368

Why pay any cent above MSRP if it´s only 'an entry level stainless watch'?

And no, a price drop is not going to happen.

Where can you get one at MSRP?

[superdog]

Originally Posted by cascavel

Where can you get one at MSRP?

An AD.

I think the point was if someone is so principled, why have your own made up ceiling.

I could be wrong though. That’s just how I read it.

[offrdmania]

Originally Posted by superdog

An AD.

I think the point was if someone is so principled, why have your own made up ceiling.

I could be wrong though. That’s just how I read it.

That is where the problem lies. I would love to buy one at MSRP if any were to be had at MSRP without a multi-year wait.

[cascavel]

Originally Posted by superdog

An AD.

I think the point was if someone is so principled, why have your own made up ceiling.

I could be wrong though. That’s just how I read it.

Is the AD near you open?

[KBM]

Originally Posted by Flex368

And no, a price drop is not going to happen.

Except it already has...

[Tay821]

Prices will only drop if greys need to sell for cashflow. Some of them aren't liquid and are becoming under water. Those that can weather this have no reason to drop prices...why take a margin cut or loss if you don't have to

[LJubel328]

Originally Posted by Tay821

Prices will only drop if greys need to sell for cashflow. Some of them aren't liquid and are becoming under water. Those that can weather this have no reason to drop prices...why take a margin cut or loss if you don't have to

This. Some greys I have been speaking with are trying to hold their prices steady (only coming down 3-5%), however, I'd say half of the ones I've spoken with are really starting to worry. They first offer that initial 3-5% but when low-balled they have quickly come down 15-20%.

Of course, there will be ones that do not need the immediate cf and will be able to weather the storm, but there are plenty that are highly leveraged and will need inventory turnover.

I have heard end of month is best when negotiating with greys. This is because the leveraged ones need to liquidate to cover their current liabilities. This could all be hearsay but it makes sense.

[chiscott_29]

Originally Posted by Tay821

Prices will only drop if greys need to sell for cashflow. Some of them aren't liquid and are becoming under water. Those that can weather this have no reason to drop prices...why take a margin cut or loss if you don't have to

I'm sorry, but what dealer can weather a situation where they don't sell anything and stop generating cash flow? There is ZERO demand right now and that's not changing unless there is a massive turnaround. Just look on the 'For Sale' forum here, or go to dealer websites if you don't believe me. Nothing is moving. Sure, maybe the "hobbyist dealer" can weather this, but the ones in it for business (i.e., a majority of them) are going to have to lower prices substantially, or they'll go under. It's Economics 101.

Add to this some good old human psychology. In bad financial times, people ask themselves things such as "why am I paying a premium" and "can I really afford this now"? They don't ask those questions when the market goes up 15% to 25% every year.

All of this spells the end of these big premiums. Sure, a 5711 or 5167 will still command something over MSRP as supply remains very low, but given our current course those premiums will be 10 to 15% above MSRP in a few months.

[Tay821]

Originally Posted by chiscott_29

I'm sorry, but what dealer can weather a situation where they don't sell anything and stop generating cash flow? There is ZERO demand right now and that's not changing unless there is a massive turnaround. Just look on the 'For Sale' forum here, or go to dealer websites if you don't believe me. Nothing is moving. Sure, maybe the "hobbyist dealer" can weather this, but the ones in it for business (i.e., a majority of them) are going to have to lower prices substantially, or they'll go under. It's Economics 101.

Add to this some good old human psychology. In bad financial times, people ask themselves things such as "why am I paying a premium" and "can I really afford this now"? They don't ask those questions when the market goes up 15% to 25% every year.

All of this spells the end of these big premiums. Sure, a 5711 or 5167 will still command something over MSRP as supply remains very low, but given our current course those premiums will be 10 to 15% above MSRP in a few months.

I wouldn't go as far to say there is ZERO demand right now. Greys are still selling watches as I've seen turn on their sites as well as speaking to a few of them. I bought something from a grey this weekend.

Also, to support that demand is still there...folks who feel they have ample money saved to weather this and still have a watch fund put aside are still looking to buy. Myself included as I bought a watch from an AD this past weekend that I finally got the call for. I have friends that would jump at buying watches that they've been waiting for as well.

I'm far from rich, but I'm good with my money and feel my job is secure...so why not buy if opportunity knocks, which happened to be twice this past week.

[fabio62]

Patek is closed...production stopped...so prices can only increase....
impossible hope differently....

[Bosscheto]

I would wait to see what happens when the AD's open. They have already admitted that they will fire people, so there will be fire sales of inventory as well. (Source, Hodinkee newsletter from yesterday.

In Switzerland the government will subsidies up to 50% of employee salaries for a trimester to help avoid mass sackings. Yesterday, officially the government announced that the demands for financial support have greatly increased the peak of demands of 2008 - 2009.

Here, the financial crisis is expected to be far worse than the last crisis, so my expectation is, that all those hot entry level watches will become entry level watches.

You have massive financial pressure on gray dealers, massive pressure on retailers, and do not forget that Patek will lose minimum of 40% of its revenues this year thanks to COVID 19, while keeping its costs, which are highly fixed anyway. On top of this, Baselworld kept the money for participation because it did not cancel but only postponed the event.

If you have waited for an Aquanaut, (like I have) wait a bit more. I am officially rejecting mine because I have lost 20% of my salary, and no bonus for 2021 so far, and my boss is fighting for not letting people off. Our company has applied for the financial aid, and we hope to get it, otherwise I will get only 60% of my salary, and these calculations include full restart of economic activity by September 1, which is optimistic. For the record, I could have bought my Aquanaut on MSRP in the last 2 years of waiting any month on my credit card and clearing the debt on the next month with zero problem.

[Mrngrz46]

Originally Posted by Bosscheto

I would wait to see what happens when the AD's open. They have already admitted that they will fire people, so there will be fire sales of inventory as well. (Source, Hodinkee newsletter from yesterday.

In Switzerland the government will subsidies up to 50% of employee salaries for a trimester to help avoid mass sackings. Yesterday, officially the government announced that the demands for financial support have greatly increased the peak of demands of 2008 - 2009.

Here, the financial crisis is expected to be far worse than the last crisis, so my expectation is, that all those hot entry level watches will become entry level watches.

You have massive financial pressure on gray dealers, massive pressure on retailers, and do not forget that Patek will lose minimum of 40% of its revenues this year thanks to COVID 19, while keeping its costs, which are highly fixed anyway. On top of this, Baselworld kept the money for participation because it did not cancel but only postponed the event.

If you have waited for an Aquanaut, (like I have) wait a bit more. I am officially rejecting mine because I have lost 20% of my salary, and no bonus for 2021 so far, and my boss is fighting for not letting people off. Our company has applied for the financial aid, and we hope to get it, otherwise I will get only 60% of my salary, and these calculations include full restart of economic activity by September 1, which is optimistic. For the record, I could have bought my Aquanaut on MSRP in the last 2 years of waiting any month on my credit card and clearing the debt on the next month with zero problem.

Interesting your point of view. I also live in Swiss so I can easily do the math. Since you show off a bit (sorry to say) with your credit capability I assume you could buy it even if now you are scared because of situation.

[Flex368]

Some ADs are closed but still call customers to arrange a local pick up of their watches.

But for 5167 and 5711 it doesn´t matter if the AD is open or not.

[Bearxj86]

Might be able to get a naked one in the mid 20s at some point perhaps :)

[Beauregard]

Originally Posted by offrdmania

Im not willing to pay high 20s or low 30s for an entry level stainless watch.

Three words: Vacheron Constantin Overseas.

Done.

[offrdmania]

Originally Posted by Beauregard

Three words: Vacheron Constantin Overseas.

Done.

Thanks, but ive never been a fan of the Iron Cross styling.

[ct.matt]

Originally Posted by offrdmania

Thanks, but ive never been a fan of the Iron Cross styling.

Would it change your opinion if I told you that it’s a Maltese cross which looks very different from an iron cross?