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Old Today, 02:43 AM   #121
Patton250
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Originally Posted by mongrelnomoad View Post
At the moment, with regards to the crisis, literally any country is superior.

Anyway, let’s get back to the topic.
Well this certainly isn’t an offensive comment.

Stupid me thought this was a Watch forum
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Old Today, 02:58 AM   #122
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No resentment. Just difficult to watch the nightmare unfolding in the US and square it with the ďoh this isnít a big dealĒ, ďĎMurica!Ē comments from some on this forum.

Deeply depressed, and worried for each and every person over there, would be a better description of my emotion.
Btw , I am sorry for your depression and your worry for us. Many of us are not relying on horses or chariots or government- w/o getting more off topic or continuing this fruitless discussion, I appreciate the freedom you feel in sharing your perceptions and that you might have complete peace and comfort . Philippians 4:19
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Old Today, 02:59 AM   #123
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At the moment, with regards to the crisis, literally any country is superior.

Anyway, letís get back to the topic.
This guys a Troll and acting like thereís not a few people from every country saying the same thing as ďMurciaĒ lol. Stop being so jealous.
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Old Today, 03:11 AM   #124
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This guys a Troll and acting like there’s not a few people from every country saying the same thing as “Murcia” lol. Stop being so jealous.
I’m not a troll. And if there were people banging drums about how Corona was “just the flu” in other countries, they’re not doing it any more.

I hope you remain safe, just as I hope the people I love who are in America stay safe too, and that your country can stop the spread before the death toll spirals out of control. Sadly, evidence appears to be that it is too late, though we will have to wait 14 days to see how bad this gets. That is all I will write on the topic.

So... Patek prices. Who thinks what?
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Old Today, 03:12 AM   #125
mongrelnomoad
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This guys a Troll and acting like there’s not a few people from every country saying the same thing as “Murcia” lol. Stop being so jealous.
“... so jealous”?

Sorry, but what exactly am I jealous of?
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Old Today, 03:40 AM   #126
jon_jon
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Due to the relatively quick recovery of asset prices from 2009 lows, it appears to me that many people believe that quick recovery is inevitable. It would need to be bad for many years before people would start dumping 5711 - to cause people to believe that “this time it’s really different” . It would also be interesting know how many owners are passionate about watches or just want to own the “it” watches - highly passionate owners will sell other things first since a 5711 is irreplaceable in many ways.
I agree that time will reveal who are the real watch collectors and who have entered the market because of the hype and FOMO and possibly to make a quick buck on a flip.

True collectors will keep their collection if they are in it for the love of these watches, unless their personal finances tank quickly.

However if the economy stays down for a while, eventually resellers will need to sell before they lose more money on their existing inventory. Also you have to remember, during the Great Recession of the late 2000s, many ADs went under. It depends on how much reserve they have. How long can they withstand the depressed market for "luxury goods"? Perhaps China will recover more quickly and start buying up everything. Germany is aware of this possibility and trying to pass a law preventing majority foreign ownership of many of their large corporations.
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Old Today, 03:41 AM   #127
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I have never sold a watch I owned.

Dont plan to start.
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Old Today, 04:14 AM   #128
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i honestly have not seen any $50K 5711 and definitely nothing below $63K if new/unworn.
at $50K it is a good deal. i would do it if i have the means, and if i don't have the means, i honestly would not care about its price anyway.
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Old Today, 05:25 AM   #129
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Small anecdote - I was offered a 2017 5990/1A for 64K last week. The dealer without asking has dropped it to 60K within a few days. He also offered me a 5164R at MSRP. The bubble on these historically "Tier 2" pieces (in terms of desirability) has burst.
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Old Today, 05:27 AM   #130
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With all do respect the folks who seem shocked donít seem to have been in this hobby for 10 plus years or having seen 5711s trade for $23k and 5980 1/a trade for $35k...


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If you just got here last few years everything appears to be tits and whisky.

I wish there was a short nautilus etf. Iíd put 100k in tomorrow.
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Old Today, 05:28 AM   #131
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Small anecdote - I was offered a 2017 5990/1A for 64K last week. The dealer without asking has dropped it to 60K within a few days. He also offered me a 5164R at MSRP. The bubble on these historically "Tier 2" pieces (in terms of desirability) has burst.
I love the 5164r. If I was in the market for one, I'd be buying at MSRP.
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Old Today, 05:35 AM   #132
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The rarest around is definately the 5726-014; that one will stay well over retail.
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Old Today, 05:43 AM   #133
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Small anecdote - I was offered a 2017 5990/1A for 64K last week. The dealer without asking has dropped it to 60K within a few days. He also offered me a 5164R at MSRP. The bubble on these historically "Tier 2" pieces (in terms of desirability) has burst.
This is completely on point. There are nautiluses and aquanauts that are currently trading at MSRP or close to MSRP, namely 5726A (strap), 5712G, 5167R and 5164R.

I find no good reason why the damage wouldn't spread to other models. The next on the chopping block will likely be 5164A, 5167A, 5990/1A and then 5712R.

Then if the down market lasts long enough, maybe even 5711/1A and 5712/1A.

One of the most frequent complaints on this forum is the unreasonable pricing of sports Pateks.

Well, guys - we can actually make it happen this time! Just sit on your cash. Don't buy from the grey dealers now. Let's see how long they last.
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Old Today, 05:58 AM   #134
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This is completely on point. There are nautiluses and aquanauts that are currently trading at MSRP or close to MSRP, namely 5726A (strap), 5712G, 5167R and 5164R.

I find no good reason why the damage wouldn't spread to other models. The next on the chopping block will likely be 5164A, 5167A, 5990/1A and then 5712R.

Then if the down market lasts long enough, maybe even 5711/1A and 5712/1A.

One of the most frequent complaints on this forum is the unreasonable pricing of sports Pateks.

Well, guys - we can actually make it happen this time! Just sit on your cash. Don't buy from the grey dealers now. Let's see how long they last.
Hope youíre right! Looking for a 5711/2 as Iím pretty sure this too large on my wrist.

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Old Today, 06:54 AM   #135
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Originally Posted by tng11 View Post
Small anecdote - I was offered a 2017 5990/1A for 64K last week. The dealer without asking has dropped it to 60K within a few days. He also offered me a 5164R at MSRP. The bubble on these historically "Tier 2" pieces (in terms of desirability) has burst.

Good info... I hear 116500 white dials are being offered to buy by dealers at 15k now.. crazy how quick things change

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If you just got here last few years everything appears to be tits and whisky.



I wish there was a short nautilus etf. Iíd put 100k in tomorrow.

Hahaha yes...




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Old Today, 07:11 AM   #136
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Good info... I hear 116500 white dials are being offered to buy by dealers at 15k now.. crazy how quick things change




Hahaha yes...




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And which dealers might this 15K be coming from? They are still over 20 everywhere that I have come across new and used.
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Old Today, 07:18 AM   #137
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And which dealers might this 15K be coming from? They are still over 20 everywhere that I have come across new and used.
Thatís what theyíre buying for, not selling price.

Another poster here on TRF has said he got offered 19K for black 116500 a few months ago and now the same dealers are offering 12K or refusing to buy at all. DSW now has black 116500 priced below 20K and heís normally on the high end of pricing.
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Old Today, 08:14 AM   #138
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Market on both have dropped about 20%

Panda Daytona around 20 and Black around 18 - mint, add about $1000 for new
5711 blues still in mid to low 50s depending on condition
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Old Today, 10:21 AM   #139
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Just be patient at this point. It hasn’t reached the bottom yet. People’s priorities might change once recession hits... perhaps there will be less hype around certain watches which would allow true watch collectors a chance to purchase their desired watch without losing an arm and a leg.

It’s also a good time to weed out those arrogant ADs who were thinking that good times will last forever. Remember all those arm twisting that these ADs forced upon customers? All those bundling nonsense, rude replies, backdoor selling to greys...

We should not support greys too even though they lower their prices as they try to get rid of the pieces they have in hand. If not, the cycle will repeat again in the future. Once those flippers and greys experienced significant losses, hopefully in the future situations like FAKE WAITING LIST will not occur again. Once bitten twice shy right?
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Old Today, 10:35 AM   #140
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Make no mistake this will play out on the buy side first. Iím sure offers from dealers are down huge already. The sale prices will take another month or two I think to get really attractive as thatís when reality will set in.

Iíve had my eye on a 5164r and contemplated offering slightly less than MSRP + Tax. I think itís best to just wait...and hope for very close to MSRP.
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Old Today, 11:23 AM   #141
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Hope to see 5726a14 near Retail price
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Old Today, 02:27 PM   #142
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Make no mistake this will play out on the buy side first. Iím sure offers from dealers are down huge already. The sale prices will take another month or two I think to get really attractive as thatís when reality will set in.

Iíve had my eye on a 5164r and contemplated offering slightly less than MSRP + Tax. I think itís best to just wait...and hope for very close to MSRP.
Wouldnít be surprised if you can get one below msrp preowned soon.
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Old Today, 02:53 PM   #143
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Make no mistake this will play out on the buy side first. Iím sure offers from dealers are down huge already. The sale prices will take another month or two I think to get really attractive as thatís when reality will set in.

Iíve had my eye on a 5164r and contemplated offering slightly less than MSRP + Tax. I think itís best to just wait...and hope for very close to MSRP.
Lets make it happen!
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Old Today, 02:58 PM   #144
CHEY
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Just be patient at this point. It hasnít reached the bottom yet. Peopleís priorities might change once recession hits... perhaps there will be less hype around certain watches which would allow true watch collectors a chance to purchase their desired watch without losing an arm and a leg.

Itís also a good time to weed out those arrogant ADs who were thinking that good times will last forever. Remember all those arm twisting that these ADs forced upon customers? All those bundling nonsense, rude replies, backdoor selling to greys...

We should not support greys too even though they lower their prices as they try to get rid of the pieces they have in hand. If not, the cycle will repeat again in the future. Once those flippers and greys experienced significant losses, hopefully in the future situations like FAKE WAITING LIST will not occur again. Once bitten twice shy right?
Yes, let the arrogant dealers and greys hurt.

Sorry if I come off as too negative. I know I do. But thats only because of the terrible attitudes displayed by these dealers and greys over the years and its payback time.
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