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25 March 2020, 11:42 PM | #61 | |
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25 March 2020, 11:47 PM | #62 | |
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Best George "Also remember that feet don't get fat and a watch will always speak volumes." Robert Johnston --------------------- *new*https://youtu.be/EljAF-uddhE *new * http://youtu.be/ZmpLoO1Q8eQ IG @passionata1 |
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25 March 2020, 11:49 PM | #63 |
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I don't think they will drop a whole lot with the production stoppage, and dealers sitting on product to wait this out. Mid 20's possibly, but those are typically a little older, more wear, no B&P, and things like that. I don't think like new full set with bracelet will reach those prices.
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26 March 2020, 12:22 AM | #64 | |
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Patek has been in crisis before, they will be here after, but they make what 1.5 bln CHF a year (not official, because it is a family owned and run company), AP crossed the 1 billion mark this year - so slash 30-40% of this, and keep the same cost. Do the math, why sit on cash or just give the AD's what they can sell to save the business. The grey dealers are speculators, those who stacked lots of watches and have little liquidity are in trouble, those who have little watches and liquidity are ok. Do not forget these are mass produced watches - not a Philippe Dufour Simplicity. There are a lot of safe queens, a lot of owners who bought for the resell value, will sell now. My opinion is, at the end of this year - GMTS, Aquanauts, high end Nautiluses will be on MSRP, and the 5711 and the Daytonas will have like a year waiting time. On the secondary market I expect all Rolexes around MSRP with the exception of the Daytona, with up to the 50K Pateks, only the 5711 or any new interesting releases (who will come 2021) will trade above MSRP on the secondary market. The big issue is purchasing power, the market will clear speculators, and you will have harmed watch lovers. It depends a lot the current perseption where you are. I am locked down in Switzerland, it is very difficult to imagine buying a watch, when you are not sure of keeping your job, paying the kid school fee and the mortgage. |
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26 March 2020, 12:30 AM | #65 | |
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I don't question that some do. But I don't think every dealer can afford to wait this out without running into cash and liquidity problems. As soon as a dealer budges and lowers prices, the lowered prices become the new market prices. The longer the virus situation lasts, the longer the dealers are forced to wait it out, and the more likely an increased number of dealers will need to sell at lower prices to meet their cash flow obligations. A reputable dealer just legitimately offered me good condition 2015 5712/1A with box and paper for USD55,000. That sounds to me like a whole of reduction from peak prices. Some dealers on this forum still quotes USD75,000 for a used 5712/1A. Well, to them, my question is, "What have you been smoking?" Coz whatever it is, it sure is trippy! |
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26 March 2020, 12:51 AM | #66 | |
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the virus will be here long term but in 12-18 months we shall have a rather effective vaccine and on a much shorter time scale there will be an antiviral/anti-inflammatory treatment. a well known german virologist was asked whether he prefers to catch the virus now or in six months. his answer was "no doubt, in six months". |
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26 March 2020, 12:55 AM | #67 | |
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But yeah to flatten the curve, drag this out and we will beat this with science! |
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26 March 2020, 12:59 AM | #68 |
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26 March 2020, 01:02 AM | #69 |
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26 March 2020, 01:31 AM | #70 |
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that is clearly correct. we all watched wuhan as if it was on a different planet.
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26 March 2020, 03:57 AM | #71 |
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Can we get back onto topic please
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26 March 2020, 04:12 AM | #72 |
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Lol entertaining read. I hope he's right - I'd love to see these gems at MSRP or close to it - not going to happen IMHO.
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26 March 2020, 04:17 AM | #73 | |
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Anyone with a relationship isn't paying retail for anything. |
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26 March 2020, 04:17 AM | #74 |
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26 March 2020, 04:19 AM | #75 |
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I haven't been watching the 5167a too closely, but the 5164a sure is heading south. This was to be my next watch, but I'm on the sidelines now and have a self imposed "nothing in unless something goes out" rule and now's not the time to be bidding adieu... The 5164a was consistently at $52k to $55k, and sometimes even a bit higher. I'm getting daily alerts from WatchRecon and it's down now to $47k to $49k. All complete with B/P, and conditions are very good. I'm relatively certain $45k would take any of them. |
26 March 2020, 04:24 AM | #76 | |
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Because of this, going into the secondary market is a very viable (and in some cases, intelligent) option. |
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26 March 2020, 04:46 AM | #77 |
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Of course these are going down, but not near MSRP; Patek will supply even less and when I look at the Dow right now, people also have enough to pay them.
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26 March 2020, 04:59 AM | #78 |
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27 March 2020, 01:42 AM | #79 |
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Someone has just paid 75,000 CHF plus fees for a 5711 2016 and a 5712 2014 sold for the same money at Sotheby’s online auction, that about £64k plus fees
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27 March 2020, 03:57 AM | #80 | |
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27 March 2020, 04:06 AM | #81 | |
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You just have to keep your fingers crossed to see what happens hoping it drop a little, but not expecting something much though. |
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27 March 2020, 05:36 AM | #82 | |
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Though the elderly are more at risk, even a young and healthy person is easily vulnerable when hospitals are saturated. Read an article how currently more people are dying in Spain due to lack of medical team/equipment(oxygen) amongst other things than the virus itself. Genuinely hope this was some sort of lame joke you were making. Be safe |
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27 March 2020, 07:09 AM | #83 |
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Come on everyone, there is already a Corona virus thread going. Please stick to the topic.
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27 March 2020, 08:00 AM | #84 |
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As good a price as I’ve seen in the last few years even after sellers commission,
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27 March 2020, 08:56 AM | #85 |
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Most likely an ill informed impulse buyer
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28 March 2020, 06:36 AM | #86 | |
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28 March 2020, 06:44 AM | #87 |
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28 March 2020, 07:12 AM | #88 |
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Are you saying that Patek is buying pieces back at higher prices hoping to push the market back up?
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28 March 2020, 07:16 AM | #89 |
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I had to stop myself saying this! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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28 March 2020, 07:28 AM | #90 | |
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