Another "My AD said..."

[jrs146]

Interesting comments. Thanks for sharing.


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[Canook]

hmmmmmmmmmm? makes me think my AD is not being truthful with me and that i wont be getting my "Rolex Unicorn Horn Watchstand"


yours sounds alot more legit.... nice to hear a bit of honesty for once

[DocHolliday]

Originally Posted by The Argonaut

The short answer is, yes, Rolex plan and manufacture years ahead like most companies. However, unlike most companies, whilst they can adjust within a given percentage to increase sales, they don’t have to. This forum is a testament to the power of the brand, and that many will wait years for a Daytona, pay over the odds for a limited piece, or pay huge amounts for a vintage piece. Rolex has no equal. There’s no other watch manufacturer that can achieve these outcomes. Not one.


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Bingo. This is it. They simply don’t have to, and that’s my point as well. For them to plainly say “demand exceeded production” is overly simplistic and makes them sound like they have their heads in the sand. What they would say if they were interested in transparency would be something like “yes we sold everything ahead of schedule and we plain don’t care that you are waiting because we know we are untouchable”. My point is that Rolex probably saw this coming six months ago, and as you said intentionally did nothing for one reason or another.

[RMC12]

Seems like a fair explanation. Especially given the likes of the BLNR have gained in popularity rather than been in instant demand on their release like the Ceramic Daytona's were.

[Wcdhtwn]

Demand surprisingly outpaced supply for certain models. There is an abundance of DJ's available at AD's and boutiques. When last time someone bought a Cellini? Is lack of demand for those a surprise at Rolex too?

[1William]

This makes as much sense as some things I have read. I believe that this is one part of the situation but I also believe that other factors play into the lack of watches. Rolex reportedly makes 1 million watches a year, or close to that is the estimate, and to think that they have no back inventory on the hot models is not realistic. They have chosen not to supply the demand, for what ever reason(s) and as consumers we have to deal with it. But if this continues it will have an impact on me as, the market for watches from other quality brands will be considered and purchased.

[The Argonaut]

In many ways, the situation of zero to no stock faced by ADs and buyers represents the best and worst of Rolex. At its best, it reflects a company untouched by issues of over demand, and which is and will be for the future THE market leader in luxury watches. At its worst, it reflects an inflexible company that doesn’t need to adapt, and doesn’t really care about its customer and future customer base. If they did, production would be increased to meet demand. After all, let’s be honest, three years to wait for a piece of jewelry is patently ridiculous.


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[Kenrocks]

Maybe Rolex is using the grey market to test how much customers are willing to pay for sport models to gauge how much they can raise MSRP?

I just saw today a posting in a HongKong fb group with 5 or 6 brand-new 116500LN Daytona C white dial selling at 50% above list. Similar postings for other sport models are not uncommon.

Is there a true lack of supply?


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[The Argonaut]

The real answer to whether Rolex is concerned with current and future customers is what is does in 2018 as regards its SS models, and how it responds to the demand shown in late 2017. Bear in mind however, it is a very conservative company. Done expect a flood of Daytonas!!

[johnnyjazz]

You might find that like most businesses, when sales as in the last couple of years have been low then the business starts to streamline their staff. Could be a case of Rolex let go of said staff and are now struggling with production.

[DrahthaarHunter]

Originally Posted by Zedder

Just getting interested in watches again, so forgive the ‘newbie’ question...what was the typical wait time for a SS Daytona before the Ceramic change? Also, what was the typical Grey Market premium then?

I got lucky in 98 my local jeweler became a AD and I said I want a SS white daytona he said ok, called me a few weeks & 5200.00 later I got it. He was not a watch guy and said man those are hard to come by. In the last 19 years I have spent more on the service than original price

[Mangas]

Originally Posted by yxc145

70 in 3 years! that's 23 daytona a year. Some dealers only get one or two a year.

Thought that sounded a bit too optimistic . I can't believe that one AD will get 20 + pieces in a year of D500

[explodingtaco]

My AD told me the same thing and we (TRF) have had this idea floating around for a bit.

Funny that we all want watches that take a year to make, but get anoyed if Rolex does not predict the future.

[texasmade]

Originally Posted by Mangas

Thought that sounded a bit too optimistic . I can't believe that one AD will get 20 + pieces in a year of D500

20+ a year works out to about 1 black and 1 white a month. Doesn’t sound too far off since this is a Rolex boutique for a very large city. If it was 20+ a year of each color that would be unbelievable.

[IAN1]

Originally Posted by yxc145

70 in 3 years! that's 23 daytona a year. Some dealers only get one or two a year.

I agree. 23 a year is a joke. I think your AD was not being so truthful.

[HK Islandboy]

Originally Posted by Ruud Van Driver

One of the most sensible “my AD said.....” posts I’ve seen on here

Heartily agree!

[HK Islandboy]

Originally Posted by johnnyjazz

You might find that like most businesses, when sales as in the last couple of years have been low then the business starts to streamline their staff. Could be a case of Rolex let go of said staff and are now struggling with production.

I assume that Rolex runs an apprentice system and consequently ramping up the supply of trained staff takes a while also.

I would be very surprised if Rolex actively cut staff (owned by a foundation, potential reputational damage from doing so, Swiss labour relations, etc) but could well believe that they slowed down replacement of retirees in the face of soft markets.

[HK Islandboy]

Originally Posted by tng11

Bubbly equity and real estate markets, IMO.

Agreed - and Chinese consumption is back in a big way

[ArtNouveau]

Originally Posted by IAN1

I agree. 23 a year is a joke. I think your AD was not being so truthful.

I think you're wrong. This is one of a handful of designated Boutiques in the US and yes they get more inventory than any Mom and Pop jeweler does. Houston also gets lots of international businessmen from the oil industry and medical tourism so always plenty of customers.
He also told me they get at least three BLNR's a month and I got one from the back room the day I asked for one. My past experiences over 30 years of Rolex buying tell me that dealers are more likely to get more stock than they tell you than less.
But you are free to believe whatever you want.

[johnnyjazz]

Originally Posted by HK Islandboy

I assume that Rolex runs an apprentice system and consequently ramping up the supply of trained staff takes a while also.

I would be very surprised if Rolex actively cut staff (owned by a foundation, potential reputational damage from doing so, Swiss labour relations, etc) but could well believe that they slowed down replacement of retirees in the face of soft markets.

Thank you, you said it a lot better than me.

[tng11]

Originally Posted by HK Islandboy

Agreed - and Chinese consumption is back in a big way

What's interesting is I've heard that Chinese consumption is back, but at a different level. Before the anti-corruption crackdown, people were going for the super expensive pieces (think USD 100K+). Now, the Chinese market is consuming pieces in the 10K-30K range with a vengeance. I recall reading an article recently that watch sales are back up in HK in terms of the numbers sold, but that average watch values have fallen significantly, which seems to make sense with this explanation.

It would also seem to make sense when you look at what segments of the market have exploded in 2017. Seems like SS Rolexes, Pateks and APs, i.e. mostly in the USD 8K-30K exploded in demand this year. With the possible exception of RM, you almost can't give away pieces in the 75K+ range.

[Golf&Watches]

Originally Posted by IAN1

I agree. 23 a year is a joke. I think your AD was not being so truthful.

The city I grew up in has two ADs, both receive four-six Daytonas a year. The population is around 200k, and very little tourism. Based on that it would be easy to extrapolate that a major worldwide industry hub, with a large tourism base , that was also a boutique could... easily get 20+ per year.

[HK Islandboy]

Originally Posted by tng11

What's interesting is I've heard that Chinese consumption is back, but at a different level. Before the anti-corruption crackdown, people were going for the super expensive pieces (think USD 100K+). Now, the Chinese market is consuming pieces in the 10K-30K range with a vengeance. I recall reading an article recently that watch sales are back up in HK in terms of the numbers sold, but that average watch values have fallen significantly, which seems to make sense with this explanation.

It would also seem to make sense when you look at what segments of the market have exploded in 2017. Seems like SS Rolexes, Pateks and APs, i.e. mostly in the USD 8K-30K exploded in demand this year. With the possible exception of RM, you almost can't give away pieces in the 75K+ range.

That would make a lot of sense to me. The PM pieces in the Rolex dealers certainly aren’t flying off the shelves - though the AP boutiques I’ve been in of late have been doing brisk business while I’ve been browsing

[hulkalicious]

Originally Posted by The Argonaut

The short answer is, yes, Rolex plan and manufacture years ahead like most companies. However, unlike most companies, whilst they can adjust within a given percentage to increase sales, they don’t have to. This forum is a testament to the power of the brand, and that many will wait years for a Daytona, pay over the odds for a limited piece, or pay huge amounts for a vintage piece. Rolex has no equal. There’s no other watch manufacturer that can achieve these outcomes. Not one.


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Indeed. My wakeup call was my grail watch always being the Omega Seamaster which I walked out brand new with a huge discount for cash before some years later becoming interested in the Submariner. After asking in the AD why I couldn't even see it in the showcase before being told there was no chance of a discount..this attracted me to the brand, I have to say.

[AK797]

Originally Posted by HK Islandboy

That would make a lot of sense to me. The PM pieces in the Rolex dealers certainly aren’t flying off the shelves - though the AP boutiques I’ve been in of late have been doing brisk business while I’ve been browsing

Yes, this makes sense, but as I was saying on the other LV thread with Megan Fox, that's fun to say , Chinese demand is high at retail and maybe slightly above retail, but are the savvy Chinese middle class happy to pay huge premiums on these watches? I understand the conspicuous consumption of rich insta kids and extravagant show-off types but I don't really see the Chinese middle class falling quite into this category even if they are new money.

[HK Islandboy]

Originally Posted by AK797

Yes, this makes sense, but as I was saying on the other LV thread with Megan Fox, that's fun to say , Chinese demand is high at retail and maybe slightly above retail, but are the savvy Chinese middle class happy to pay huge premiums on these watches? I understand the conspicuous consumption of rich insta kids and extravagant show-off types but I don't really see the Chinese middle class falling quite into this category even if they are new money.

I think there are a couple of factors - Most purchase happening offshore where, even with a high premium, prices are lower than they are onshore; purchases happening on vacation, so waiting around to maybe find a better deal is not really an option; willingness to spend money and not stress about +/- 1-2k in the context of a 10k watch - not everyone, but enough people to hoover up the supply that comes available