Vintage Rolex Integrity In Jeopardy

[Franks07]

Is anyone else as deeply concerned as I now find myself to be regarding the future of vintage Rolex watch integrity and collecting?
I have read Eric Ku's and Philipp Stahl's recent articles which are readily available online regarding the ever increasing "quality" and prevalence of fake / redone vintage Rolex dials and hands making their way into the market and it really begs the question what does the future hold for the hobby.
The impact on the hobby is here now and as the technology and profitability associated with faking vintage dials and hands continues to improve (I will leave the case laser welding issue for someone else to address) it gives me pause on the wisdom of staying in the hobby or making my exit now before things really get ugly.
To be clear...I love the hobby and get a great deal of enjoyment from my vintage Rolex ownership as well as the content of this and other Rolex Forums. You guys are terrific! That said...I really have to ask myself if I am up for the future challenges that will become part and parcel to the vintage Rolex (watch) hobby as relates to the authenticity issues that will always be the cornerstone to the hobby.
As an owner of a truly authentic and "honest" all original and "period correct" (replacement crown and acrylic crystal) one owner vintage Rolex Sub reference 6205 (pictured) that has been in my family since it was bought new for $100 in 1954; I don't think I want to have to defend the authenticity of my watch to the degree that is becoming increasingly necessary given the highly aggressive con artists that are lurking out there looking to take advantage of vintage Rolex buyers /collectors.
While I don't envision selling my watch anytime soon; if my circumstances were to change in say five years; am I ready to have potential buyers take me to task on every aspect of my watch's authenticity and insist on completely dismantling my watch as part of the "due diligence" that is mandated by today's issues since it is now to the point where the vintage dial's absolute authenticity can only be validated 100% by an expert examining the dial out of the watch?
Frankly, I don't know that I am up for that...
Anyone else feeling my angst?

[cajuntiger]

no worries here...I think a bit of common sense, and education go a long way.

[Kingair]

Read read read and ask ask ask

That's our future ;)

[Old Expat Beast]

Original paperwork goes a long way. Do you still have it?

[Franks07]

I don't have my father's watch's box or paperwork. He bought it in 1954 (perhaps early 1955) and wore it for Many years as his daily and wasn't really a "watch guy" that would have even thought twice about pitching the box and papers the day he put it on his wrist...who knew:) in fact when I had it repaired and completely overhauled by Bob Ridley there was not sign of a previous service on the watch as would typically be noted inside the case back.
What I do have is a recently received "Certificate of Authentication" that I paid extra for from Bob Ridley as he performed a complete overhaul and "vintage restoration" of the watch that was quite costly (and well worth the investment).
Frank

[Vincent65]

I see your concern, but as with everything else, there will always be criminals copying the good stuff. I doubt you'd have too much trouble finding a buyer who knew what he was looking at.

[waQstar]

When demand is so great and prices are so high... Crooks find this a great opportunity and get these in through un suspected buyers... Best advice I can give is, verify the crap out of the watch, there are many online communities and forums that have members with knowledge that can tell you straight up if your piece is legit...

[Xantiagib]

only a fool would buy the watch and not the seller... I don't think you would have a problem with the latter

[The_Walrus]

A watch like yours could easily find its way to one of the big auction houses- I don't think you would have a great deal of trouble.

[jedly1]

there have been what in their moment in time have been considered really good fakes for donkeys years and its never had an impact ...most faked out there is a newman and has been for years...bout the most sought after and expensive and consistently strongest grower ...newman.

[marcello pisani]

in Italy we have a proverb that sounds like " don't bind your head untill you break it ! "

[waspy1]

I'm not too bothered. Even though the fakers improve, the average collector is also more informed than 20 years back.


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[JohnBaker3]

Frank:

The problem that you have so elequently described is not unique to the vintage Rolex arena.

It has been a problem for many years with antique Tiffany Lamps and historic European paintings. Just ask the Getty Museum about their "Greek Statue"....

Bottom line: we are at risk for criminals trying to take our money in the quest for great vintage watches.

Caveat emptor; do your homework and buy the seller when possible. Don't let the bastards bring us down !

In the meantime, let's enjoy our one owner, unmolested Rolex's (and others) for the simple joys they bring us.

Life is good.

[cruvon]

Paintings have been faked for centuries(?) and collectors still pay big money for them inspite of the risks involved. Similar story with vintage Rolexes in my opinion, collecting them isn't going stop anytime soon!

[QueueCumber]

It's true. Too many fakes. You should just give up and sell me your 6205 at a steep discount...

[motoikkyu]

Anybody remember character watches? Remember what happened to the values? Seriously, will anyone be wearing a wristwatch thirty years from now? The only reason to collect or acquire is because you yourself enjoy it. While our "assets" are currently appreciating, with values for good examples going sky-high, it will all eventually come crashing down. What did a Bunn Special pocket watch go for in 1988? $4000. You can get those for $350 now... no one wants Grandpa's old watch collection, no matter what HE paid for it. There will always be enthusiasts, there will always be fakes, there will always be knowledge lost. I expect the values of the pre-1980s Rolex and Tudors to converge even more: to a person born in 1996, who is now eighteen, a Tudor IS a Rolex. And probably half of those born in 1996 don't wear wristwatches and probably never will.

[Beelzy]

From what I have seen lately, people will buy just about anything from anyone. Folks sell incorrect pieces,
and nobody questions. For example, a 5513 being sold by a reputable dealer as a Serif dial simply because it has a tiny fishtail on a couple of plots. Never mind the dial print indicates it's not a serif dial....and nobody questions.

Vintage Rolex, not for the faint of heart anymore.

[brandrea]

Water always finds it's own level. As prices for luxury goods increase, it makes it more palatable for con artists to copy and reproduce replicas.

It's a shame, but nowadays you really need to be extra vigilant and do your homework.

[QueueCumber]

Originally Posted by motoikkyu

Anybody remember character watches? Remember what happened to the values? Seriously, will anyone be wearing a wristwatch thirty years from now? The only reason to collect or acquire is because you yourself enjoy it. While our "assets" are currently appreciating, with values for good examples going sky-high, it will all eventually come crashing down. What did a Bunn Special pocket watch go for in 1988? $4000. You can get those for $350 now... no one wants Grandpa's old watch collection, no matter what HE paid for it. There will always be enthusiasts, there will always be fakes, there will always be knowledge lost. I expect the values of the pre-1980s Rolex and Tudors to converge even more: to a person born in 1996, who is now eighteen, a Tudor IS a Rolex. And probably half of those born in 1996 don't wear wristwatches and probably never will.

You are comparing apples to oranges IMO.

Hamilton pocket watches are not comparable to Rolex sports watches on many levels. It's like comparing a classic Ferrari to a 1946 Jeep Station Wagon. You are comparing two different markets as if they are equal; these are two different lifestyles: sport vs. utility.

Besides the sports vs. utility comparison, you are comparing a pocket watch vs. a wrist watch. The pocket watch stays hidden in a pocket, while a wristwatch acts as more than just a timekeeping device. A wristwatch also acts as jewelry (sometimes subtle and sometimes not).

Even comparing a Hamilton sports watch vs. a Rolex sports watch, Hamilton does not have anywhere near the interesting history as Rolex (going to the bottom of the ocean; tops of highest mountains; etc.), and has not maintained an iconic design for decades like Rolex.

The comparison has been made before that sportscars are to the vintage car market what sports-watches are to the vintage watch market. The vintage sportscar market seems to parallel vintage sports-watch markets in many ways:

http://www.foxbusiness.com/industrie...es-rev-higher/

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/m...k-markets.html

Additionally, Smart-watches will soon help to continue the interest in wearing devices on the wrist for younger generations, increasing the visibility of vintage watches in the process. A comparison can be drawn between pocket watches and smartphones vs. wristwatches and smart-watches. Albeit, the larger screen that a smartphone provides may still be useful at this point in time for most people.

The biggest threat to all collectible industries are recessions and crashes in the stock market, at which point collectors strapped for capital flood the market with too many pieces and dealers can't find buyers for their pieces, because almost everyone has lost the value to purchase high priced luxury goods and collectibles.

[JohnBaker3]

Originally Posted by Beelzy

Vintage Rolex, not for the faint of heart anymore.

Well stated......

[77T]

I see no issue in owning a vintage Rolex - e.g., like the one you have. You know it's valid. The issue for you is if you want to later reap its full value at sale time. But keeping it and handing it down is no real problem.


Frankly the inflated values for 100% period pieces is not important to me. As long as it keeps good time and is worth owning, I won't worry if the original hands are on it.

[motoikkyu]

Point taken on apples vs. oranges. I don't think I'm completely wrong, only mostly wrong. To a twenty-something, there is no difference between a pocket watch and a wristwatch: both are affectations, if you need to know the time, look at your telephone. You spend 14 hours a day staring at it and fondling it anyway. No disrespect to QueueCumber, were you being funny about the Ferrari and the Jeep? Which of these could still be used for its intended purpose? Could you still race a 1946 Ferrari? Which would be more satisfying to maintain? Yes, the more rare item trades at higher prices, but to argue that it is more utilitarian? Not sure I can agree completely. As for economic indicators and predictions, I have a bubble-back I can sell you: bought it in the 1980s for $8000. I'm fairly certain by the time small watches come back into fashion, the majority of the first-world population will NOT be wearing wristwatches, even if they have little screens that allow you to play tiny games. But, as you have so astutely observed, I am frequently wrong.

[omitohud]

U r going to let others bad behavior dictate ur decision? Don't b bro. If u like this hobby stick to it.


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[QueueCumber]

Originally Posted by motoikkyu

Point taken on apples vs. oranges. I don't think I'm completely wrong, only mostly wrong. To a twenty-something, there is no difference between a pocket watch and a wristwatch: both are affectations, if you need to know the time, look at your telephone. You spend 14 hours a day staring at it and fondling it anyway.

I was the same way until I hit my 30s and had money. I wore Swatches in my tweens, but stopped wearing anything for a number of years, until I became interested in watches again for my wife and myself as jewelry. I used my simple cellphone or asked someone else for the time in the interim.

As for watches dissappearing, you are hardly the first to make that claim, and sales have continued to rise over time, excluding the recession dip.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the...-up-2013-07-01

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/07/fa...anted=all&_r=0

Originally Posted by motoikkyu

No disrespect to QueueCumber, were you being funny about the Ferrari and the Jeep? Which of these could still be used for its intended purpose? Could you still race a 1946 Ferrari? Which would be more satisfying to maintain? Yes, the more rare item trades at higher prices, but to argue that it is more utilitarian? Not sure I can agree completely.

I think my point went over your head on this one. My apologies if I wasn't clear.

The point was that sports models in vintage car markets are in much higher demand, and sell for multiples, and in some cases exponential amounts of money, compared to the more utilitarian classics like an original Jeep station wagon. They represent very different lifestyles. A Rolex submariner and Daytona represent very different lifestyles compared to a Hamilton pocket watch, or even a Rolex Bubbleback.

Likewise, these niche lifestyle markets at the time made for smaller production numbers, increasing their value over time even more. But let's face it. You can have a low production number on a piece, but if it doesn't represent something desirable or interesting historically to the market, then who cares about it?

Originally Posted by motoikkyu

As for economic indicators and predictions, I have a bubble-back I can sell you: bought it in the 1980s for $8000. I'm fairly certain by the time small watches come back into fashion, the majority of the first-world population will NOT be wearing wristwatches, even if they have little screens that allow you to play tiny games. But, as you have so astutely observed, I am frequently wrong.

I think you are wrong in the long term about certain watches, but of course not all watches.

I don't see the draw in buying a bubble-back myself much like I don't see the draw in owning an original Jeep station wagon, unless someone important owned it. Sports-watches like Submariners or Daytonas I can see the draw, much like I can see the draw in buying a vintage Ferrari. They represent a lifestyle of adventure, romance, exploration, and danger. The bubbleback and Hamilton pocketwatch don't represent those things to me, much like the Jeep station wagon doesn't either. I see Jeep station wagon and I think of the boring family life someone had in the 1940s and how much it is like the boring family life I have now...

In any case, car racing and adventure diving are not disappearing anytime soon, and Rolex is intertwined with the history of both while still maintaining much of its iconic look since the 1950s and 1960s. A look so iconic and desirable, that a vast number of people wearing Submariners don't dive, and a vast number of people wearing Daytonas don't race cars. It is a design that has become symbolic of something much greater than its original utility. The same can be said for many high end sports cars with long histories and iconic products. I see a lot of Ferraris where I live, and I rarely see anyone driving them fast, or taking them to the track. They are mostly driven to the local Starbucks. Likewise, as you mentioned, almost no one will race a vintage Ferrari, but likewise, almost no one would dive with a vintage Submariner either (unless they don't mind destroying their watch!). It isn't the racing that is being sold by these companies anyway; it is the symbolic lifestyle.

I will agree that if the iconic nature of these two models in the present were to suddenly become less iconic or desirable, then the values would fall, but I don't see that happening anytime soon. Rolex has brilliantly sealed their iconic status with these two models in particular, simultaneously cementing their long-term vintage values in the process.

That's my opinion on it anyways...

[locutus49]

Much WISdom here. I have collected antiquarian books (leather-bound) for years, and they appreciated in value until 2 years ago, and now I'd be lucky to get half of what they were worth. Young people have no interest. I have this from a specialist.

As for vintage watches, if John Mayer can be fooled, most any collector can, as he apparently has solid knowledge of vintage Rolexes. But FrankenRolexes are often subtle.

My main warning, that is often unheeded: unless you are an expert, do NOT buy vintage Rolex off of flea-bay. You have no idea what has been done to the movement.

Originally Posted by QueueCumber

You are comparing apples to oranges IMO.

Hamilton pocket watches are not comparable to Rolex sports watches on many levels. It's like comparing a classic Ferrari to a 1946 Jeep Station Wagon. You are comparing two different markets as if they are equal; these are two different lifestyles: sport vs. utility.

Besides the sports vs. utility comparison, you are comparing a pocket watch vs. a wrist watch. The pocket watch stays hidden in a pocket, while a wristwatch acts as more than just a timekeeping device. A wristwatch also acts as jewelry (sometimes subtle and sometimes not).

Even comparing a Hamilton sports watch vs. a Rolex sports watch, Hamilton does not have anywhere near the interesting history as Rolex (going to the bottom of the ocean; tops of highest mountains; etc.), and has not maintained an iconic design for decades like Rolex.

The comparison has been made before that sportscars are to the vintage car market what sports-watches are to the vintage watch market. The vintage sportscar market seems to parallel vintage sports-watch markets in many ways:

http://www.foxbusiness.com/industrie...es-rev-higher/

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/m...k-markets.html

Additionally, Smart-watches will soon help to continue the interest in wearing devices on the wrist for younger generations, increasing the visibility of vintage watches in the process. A comparison can be drawn between pocket watches and smartphones vs. wristwatches and smart-watches. Albeit, the larger screen that a smartphone provides may still be useful at this point in time for most people.

The biggest threat to all collectible industries are recessions and crashes in the stock market, at which point collectors strapped for capital flood the market with too many pieces and dealers can't find buyers for their pieces, because almost everyone has lost the value to purchase high priced luxury goods and collectibles.

[descartes]

I share the same concerns as the OP. And, while it may not stop me from collecting altogether, I have come to grips with the fact that (i) top vintage dealers who know that the market is much more likely now to "buy-the-seller" know that they can now a command super, super premium (see, e.g. Sheartime currently asking $18,000 for a nice non-DR, non-RD 1665); and (ii) the opportunity for a too-good-to-be-true "find" at a great price is VERY likely to good to be true.

[motoikkyu]

I am indeed sorry for having missed the point. "Adventure, romance, exploration, and danger" are indeed evocative for many humans and I forget that. Some of us crave the opposites: boredom, ennui, safety, and the proverbial rut. I'd love to have a boring family life more than you'd ever imagine. I started collecting timepieces because they are so very neat and tidy and regular, so very different from my chaotic life. Don't get me wrong, I own my choices and have few regrets, but we all wish we could "have it all." There will always be purists who love wristwatches, and there will always be crooks that are ready to profit from items of questionable provenance. The problem as I see it is that to some degree, most people are satisfied with a superficial resemblance to the desirable object. I have a Mil-Sub-style bezel insert on my 5513 because I like the look: I don't have a Mil-Sub and if I bought one, I probably wouldn't wear it for fear of lowering the value of a rare item. Perfectly happy with my little insert, just as many are happy with Camaros that have been painted to appear as Z28s, or Tempests that have come to resemble GTOs. So, it's not just criminality you must fight, but inertia and lack of interest. We must always encourage ourselves to "look closer, pay attention, do not compromise," and that's in all things, not just watches.

[greekbum]

I have been at this for over 25 years. The 1st 18 or so i never ever sold a watch just collected what i liked and could afford to buy. Lucky for me it was vintage sport model rolex watches it could have been something else I guess? Seikos.... Never in my mind then did i think i would sell or that they would go up in value much. The money i spent on them was in my mind gone and never to be seen again. Things changed around 2003 for me and the prices moved fast. Since then I've said many times to myself there is no way they can go higher and they did. Its a global game now and there is lots of hype for certain models and fewer pieces than buyers and its making prices go sky high for the like NOS pieces. How will it end? IMHO just like all that came before it. When is anybody guess.

[watchcrank]

Everything has a beginning and an end. I've been collecting for over 30 years and I only keep what I love to wear. I still sleep pretty well :-) m

[Johny]

if there is a profit to be made then the crooks and fakers will be in there. it is just a fact of life.