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Old 25 February 2020, 12:22 PM   #121
GreenLantern
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Luxury goods don't usually do great in downturns.

(Look at the value of Bugatti Veyrons in 2008 compared to now.)
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Old 25 February 2020, 01:34 PM   #122
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Speaking of bubbles, hoarding, and market manipulation:

https://www.instagram.com/p/B89Z7HMIlc6/
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Old 25 February 2020, 01:41 PM   #123
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Speaking of bubbles, hoarding, and market manipulation:

https://www.instagram.com/p/B89Z7HMIlc6/

If those watches are genuine and not fakes, that photo is incredible and disturbing. If there are 100 such grey operators each with that many “hot” pieces, they could absolutely manipulate the market. You’d like to think that if Rolex saw this, they’d want to act. However, in producing one million watches a year, what can they realistically do?


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Old 25 February 2020, 01:54 PM   #124
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If the corona virus takes down the global economy, what is it that you think will be a store of value? Will it be shown that all assets except, ironically, bonds were in a bubble? Nothing will survive an economic nuclear explosion. We learned that in 2009.


Gold. USD.
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Old 26 February 2020, 04:23 AM   #125
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Speaking of bubbles, hoarding, and market manipulation:

https://www.instagram.com/p/B89Z7HMIlc6/
Note the warranty cards are blank. May be a photo of a Rolex distributor/importer. I just saw the photo and did not read the attached article. If the cards are blank with no serials and not Rolex importer the watches may be fake.
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Old 26 February 2020, 05:32 AM   #126
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Why would grey dealers post pictures of such inventory?
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Old 26 February 2020, 05:53 AM   #127
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if the corona virus takes down the global economy, what is it that you think will be a store of value? Will it be shown that all assets except, ironically, bonds were in a bubble? Nothing will survive an economic nuclear explosion. We learned that in 2009.


chf....
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Old 26 February 2020, 06:50 AM   #128
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I think if coronavirus takes down the global economy we will buy Patek Nautilus at maximum 30% of the list price and AD will please us to buy one and second Nautilus is a gift!!
On Rolex situation will be more friendly, they will sell us a Sub, GMT BLRO and Daytona in buckets on 25% of the price!!
������
Guys the hot pieces will remain hot with or without coronavirus.
Because this game it’s a marketing strategy. Yap if the coronavirus put down the economy I really think Patek and Rolex will cut number of hot pieces production and the hot pieces like Nautilus and Daytona will remain HOT.
Just my opinion...
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Old 26 February 2020, 09:59 AM   #129
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I heard Mr. Stern is ready to cut prices of Patek by 50% if the market continues to crash. Buy gold references as gold will do best in a depression or so I heard.

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Originally Posted by Xerxes77 View Post
I think if coronavirus takes down the global economy we will buy Patek Nautilus at maximum 30% of the list price and AD will please us to buy one and second Nautilus is a gift!!
On Rolex situation will be more friendly, they will sell us a Sub, GMT BLRO and Daytona in buckets on 25% of the price!!
������
Guys the hot pieces will remain hot with or without coronavirus.
Because this game it’s a marketing strategy. Yap if the coronavirus put down the economy I really think Patek and Rolex will cut number of hot pieces production and the hot pieces like Nautilus and Daytona will remain HOT.
Just my opinion...
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Old 26 February 2020, 01:42 PM   #130
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Speaking of bubbles, hoarding, and market manipulation:

https://www.instagram.com/p/B89Z7HMIlc6/
Quote:
Originally Posted by Calatrava r View Post
Note the warranty cards are blank. May be a photo of a Rolex distributor/importer. I just saw the photo and did not read the attached article. If the cards are blank with no serials and not Rolex importer the watches may be fake.
They're not blank, they're photoshopped to be erased (gotta look very closely to see that).

This is from a somewhat reputable (as I'm told) grey dealer: https://www.instagram.com/watchtradingco/

So, those don't appear to be fake to me, nor are they from a distributor/importer. :(
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Old 26 February 2020, 05:07 PM   #131
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The bubble is what we watch fans are trapped in!


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Old 26 February 2020, 06:25 PM   #132
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The bubble is what we watch fans are trapped in!


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Old 18 May 2021, 10:55 AM   #133
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Interesting to bump this thread.

All this time later, and watches are just the start. Cars, art, crypto, homes, etc...

Interesting times we are living in. I think the world is in this crazy euphoric state. A bubble of some sort must burst. But I personally don’t think it’ll be something we’ve seen before.

Given inflation, I see prices just continuing to go up. Not saying watches are a hood investment strategy. By no means. In fact, just the opposite. But given inflation and rushing prices, might not be a terrible thing to have a watch on your wrist that you enjoy and is likely getting more costly to buy vs money in the bank that is losing value.

Balance of investments, along with cash flow are imho the way to go. Everything else, no one knows. After all, just look at this thread.
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Old 19 May 2021, 01:15 AM   #134
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Interesting to bump this thread.

All this time later, and watches are just the start. Cars, art, crypto, homes, etc...

Interesting times we are living in. I think the world is in this crazy euphoric state. A bubble of some sort must burst. But I personally don’t think it’ll be something we’ve seen before.

Given inflation, I see prices just continuing to go up. Not saying watches are a hood investment strategy. By no means. In fact, just the opposite. But given inflation and rushing prices, might not be a terrible thing to have a watch on your wrist that you enjoy and is likely getting more costly to buy vs money in the bank that is losing value.

Balance of investments, along with cash flow are imho the way to go. Everything else, no one knows. After all, just look at this thread.
touché
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Old 19 May 2021, 01:20 AM   #135
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Interesting to bump this thread.

All this time later, and watches are just the start. Cars, art, crypto, homes, etc...

Interesting times we are living in. I think the world is in this crazy euphoric state. A bubble of some sort must burst. But I personally don’t think it’ll be something we’ve seen before.

Given inflation, I see prices just continuing to go up. Not saying watches are a hood investment strategy. By no means. In fact, just the opposite. But given inflation and rushing prices, might not be a terrible thing to have a watch on your wrist that you enjoy and is likely getting more costly to buy vs money in the bank that is losing value.

Balance of investments, along with cash flow are imho the way to go. Everything else, no one knows. After all, just look at this thread.
the way i see it is if you're invested up to your personal standards or risk tolerance and don't want to invest any more for whatever reason (stock market at crazy levels, housing at insane levels) then these watches are the next best thing. it allows you to park your cash and avoid inflation while not necessarily being exposed to the same level of risk as investments which can lose you all your money

of course it all comes down to what price you buy them at as well, but as you said these are unprecedented times and this can keep going for a few more years
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Old 19 May 2021, 07:41 PM   #136
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If you buy something and it goes up in value to the point where you can sell it and make a profit, it was an investment. Maybe when you bought it you didn't know it was an investment, but you can't be blamed for that, often circumstances are beyond your control. Personally, with the advantage of hindsight, I like to rebrand my spending decisions; 5711a was an investment, Lange 1815 was a luxury purchase. No mistakes.
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Old 19 May 2021, 09:11 PM   #137
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If you buy something and it goes up in value to the point where you can sell it and make a profit, it was an investment. Maybe when you bought it you didn't know it was an investment, but you can't be blamed for that, often circumstances are beyond your control. Personally, with the advantage of hindsight, I like to rebrand my spending decisions; 5711a was an investment, Lange 1815 was a luxury purchase. No mistakes.
By that same logic a stock I bought as an investment ceases to be an investment if the value goes down?
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Old 20 May 2021, 12:41 AM   #138
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By that same logic a stock I bought as an investment ceases to be an investment if the value goes down?
Exactly! Investments are supposed to make money for you. If you lose money it wasn't an investment, it was a speculation, you just thought it was an investment. In the stock market, particularly, a better term than investment would be "crapshoot". Only afterwards can you determine whether or not it was an investment.
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Old 20 May 2021, 01:27 AM   #139
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Exactly! Investments are supposed to make money for you. If you lose money it wasn't an investment, it was a speculation, you just thought it was an investment. In the stock market, particularly, a better term than investment would be "crapshoot". Only afterwards can you determine whether or not it was an investment.
Except that’s just plain wrong. Something that drops in value can still provide ongoing returns. A non-realized loss on whatever asset you choose to call investment or speculation doesn’t negate its status as an investment.

Investments are allocations made with the expectation of future returns. Appreciation in value doesn’t suddenly make an asset an investment just because of the appreciation per se.
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Old 20 May 2021, 09:26 AM   #140
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Wait, are we having a debate on whether or not modern generally still-in-production watches with no hard / numbered limitation are "investments"?

They aren't.

Vintage watches, sure.

Same argument goes for cars. Most are not. Some, a very select few are, and so are vintage cars.
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Old 20 May 2021, 02:49 PM   #141
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Simple - just sell your Bubbleback collection and you have the millions to buy SS Pateks.

Because Bubblebacks are a safe investment, the only way is up.
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Old 22 May 2021, 08:34 PM   #142
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If you buy something and it goes up in value to the point where you can sell it and make a profit, it was an investment. Maybe when you bought it you didn't know it was an investment, but you can't be blamed for that, often circumstances are beyond your control. Personally, with the advantage of hindsight, I like to rebrand my spending decisions; 5711a was an investment, Lange 1815 was a luxury purchase. No mistakes.
Ah! The mental games we all play to internally justify our watch purchases to ourselves

I do try to stick with Benjamin Graham and David Dodd's attempt at defining "investment" and "speculation" in Security Analysis (from 1934):

“An investment operation is one which, upon thorough analysis, promises safety of principal and a satisfactory return. Operations not meeting these requirements are speculative.”

It is as simple as that. However much certain PP references have shot up in market value they still do not "promise safety of principal" (unless perhaps if bought at retail price )
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Old 23 May 2021, 12:36 AM   #143
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Ah! The mental games we all play to internally justify our watch purchases to ourselves

I do try to stick with Benjamin Graham and David Dodd's attempt at defining "investment" and "speculation" in Security Analysis (from 1934):

“An investment operation is one which, upon thorough analysis, promises safety of principal and a satisfactory return. Operations not meeting these requirements are speculative.”

It is as simple as that. However much certain PP references have shot up in market value they still do not "promise safety of principal" (unless perhaps if bought at retail price )
I love it! Thanks for quoting Graham and Dodd, Warren Buffett would be so happy to see this. It's ridiculous how few things would meet G+D's criterion for investment in today's world, and yet, those speculative things have made many people wealthier.
But your point is taken.
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Old 23 May 2021, 12:46 AM   #144
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Ah! The mental games we all play to internally justify our watch purchases to ourselves

I do try to stick with Benjamin Graham and David Dodd's attempt at defining "investment" and "speculation" in Security Analysis (from 1934):

“An investment operation is one which, upon thorough analysis, promises safety of principal and a satisfactory return. Operations not meeting these requirements are speculative.”

It is as simple as that. However much certain PP references have shot up in market value they still do not "promise safety of principal" (unless perhaps if bought at retail price )
Yes, yes, yes.

I think the current situation is more of a Ponzi scheme than a bubble. Why? Because when there are not enough suckers buying 100k 5711s, then the scheme will pop.

The dance of musical chairs.
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