Prices slump by up to 50% for discontinued Rolex watches (Watchpro)

[nocaps]

Originally Posted by soicanbefree

Let's see if I can really break this down Barney Style for the crowd.

1) Core inflation print comes in hot. (Higher than expected)
2) High print forces the Fed to increase rate. (75-100 basis points next meeting)
3) Future expectation of higher rates cause Treasuries to increase, Dollar to increase, valuations to decrease.

Everything is priced off the risk free rate (RFR) (Treasuries). Higher RFR = Higher yield your assets must produce to justify it's valuation. Everything must be repriced. All assets.

Simultaneously people are going to experience:

1) Inflation. Higher day to day prices. Rent is up. Food is up. Gas is up.
2) Saving depletion and higher borrowing costs for all major purchases.
3) Asset valuations down. They are going to literally be poorer.
4) The Fed actively trying to "cool" inflation by destroying their jobs / wealth / earnings power.
5) There is not free money coming in to save us. The previous solution is the problem. We have barely even begun quantitively tightening.

This is mega bullish for high end trinkets. (Rolex Watches). (/sarcasm)

With that said we never seem to allow the destruction to come. Maybe they blink. Market keeps trying to rally into this for some reason that I don't understand.

well said. in the meantime, grey dealers continue to
probe the bottom of the market, hoping that
any hint of positive news justifies a bump in asking prices…

[messikens]

Any more recent moda updates for the 26420 and 26240?

[Vince_76]

Did anyone see the 77350st on MODA? Listed twice by two different people, same description and photos. It’s interesting because both are active dealers in there

[SwissmadeTexan]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

Did anyone see the 77350st on MODA? Listed twice by two different people, same description and photos. It’s interesting because both are active dealers in there

Sometimes there are more than one “dealer” that work for an overall larger dealing firm.

[soicanbefree]

Originally Posted by SwissmadeTexan

Sometimes there are more than one “dealer” that work for an overall larger dealing firm.

"work"

I believe they refer to themselves as "teams"

[eijiboy]

Rg olive dial now dipping to 55k nib


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[BrunoMalik]

Originally Posted by eijiboy

Rg olive dial now dipping to 55k nib


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Keep going. I am a buyer at 20% below retail.


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[QuelleHeureEstIl]

In the last CRM video, the guy is saying that he is not buying if not cheap because now he is offered daily watches at retail or even a little below: https://youtu.be/XYPYwKgE-Ak?t=842

[eijiboy]

Originally Posted by BrunoMalik

Keep going. I am a buyer at 20% below retail.


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It will be discontinue before it happen


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[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by eijiboy

Rg olive dial now dipping to 55k nib


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And another NIB 55.3k sitting

[dmash]

Originally Posted by messikens

Any more recent moda updates for the 26420 and 26240?

420 actually leveled out a bit. was below MSRP after tax for a few listings, now its back to around MSRP after tax from what I've seen.

[soicanbefree]

Originally Posted by QuelleHeureEstIl

In the last CRM video, the guy is saying that he is not buying if not cheap because now he is offered daily watches at retail or even a little below: https://youtu.be/XYPYwKgE-Ak?t=842

Uh ohhhhhhhhh who is gonna hold all the watches they don't actually want when the music stops.

Far too few end users.

Way too many sneaker boi backpack dealers / holders.

Realllllllllllllllllllllllllllllly gotta flush that all out first.

[soicanbefree]

If it is indeed "cheap", "good deal", "fire seller"... then pray tell good sales listing commentator.

Why have you not purchased it?

Why is it still for sale days later?

[EEpro]

Originally Posted by soicanbefree

Let's see if I can really break this down Barney Style for the crowd.

1) Core inflation print comes in hot. (Higher than expected)
2) High print forces the Fed to increase rate. (75-100 basis points next meeting)
3) Future expectation of higher rates cause Treasuries to increase, Dollar to increase, valuations to decrease.

Everything is priced off the risk free rate (RFR) (Treasuries). Higher RFR = Higher yield your assets must produce to justify it's valuation. Everything must be repriced. All assets.

Simultaneously people are going to experience:

1) Inflation. Higher day to day prices. Rent is up. Food is up. Gas is up.
2) Saving depletion and higher borrowing costs for all major purchases.
3) Asset valuations down. They are going to literally be poorer.
4) The Fed actively trying to "cool" inflation by destroying their jobs / wealth / earnings power.
5) There is not free money coming in to save us. The previous solution is the problem. We have barely even begun quantitively tightening.

This is mega bullish for high end trinkets. (Rolex Watches). (/sarcasm)

With that said we never seem to allow the destruction to come. Maybe they blink. Market keeps trying to rally into this for some reason that I don't understand.

It seems so obvious that perhaps it will go the other way. Everyone on here predicted covid closures and job losses and lock downs to send prices of Rolex to the cellar and we know what happened next.

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by soicanbefree

If it is indeed "cheap", "good deal", "fire seller"... then pray tell good sales listing commentator.

Why have you not purchased it?

Why is it still for sale days later?

Exactly. They’re grasping for straws. The tomfoolery that goes on in this regard has been widely discussed. Can’t wait until the holidays, when things still haven’t picked up.

Call any grey - they won’t buy even the hotter models anywhere close to where asks are now, let alone where they were a couple months ago. Many refs they’re offering at/below retail.

Originally Posted by EEpro

It seems so obvious that perhaps it will go the other way. Everyone on here predicted covid closures and job losses and lock downs to send prices of Rolex to the cellar and we know what happened next.

Covid was unprecedented, therefore making the economic ramifications hard to predict. But that’s exactly why the fed kept rates low and juiced the economy with helicopter money and QE.

Rate hikes of historic proportions and QT, however… any economist will tell you what that does to the economy.

[messikens]

Originally Posted by dmash

420 actually leveled out a bit. was below MSRP after tax for a few listings, now its back to around MSRP after tax from what I've seen.

Thank you - always appreciate your replies


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[Xtralarg]

Originally Posted by QuelleHeureEstIl

In the last CRM video, the guy is saying that he is not buying if not cheap because now he is offered daily watches at retail or even a little below: https://youtu.be/XYPYwKgE-Ak?t=842

Does anyone actually believe this BS on YouTube? Give your head a wobble

[QuelleHeureEstIl]

Originally Posted by Xtralarg

Does anyone actually believe this BS on YouTube? Give your head a wobble

When browsing your comment, I noticed that you hate Youtube when traders are not pumping the market.

Have you seen the sequence in the link I provided (It starts at the correct time code so you will not waste time). In no time, traders can source all references (because we are in a seller market), so their only reason to stock a watch would be if it is dirt cheap. And when sellers need to sell they have no choice and drop their asking price way below market...

Can you let me understand why you think what they say is BS? (I genuinely want to understand your point of view as I may missing something) Thank you.

[soicanbefree]

Wasn't someone obsessed with the pricing / availability on this watch?

Omega Speedmaster 321 Ed White 311.30.40.30.01.001 Like New Full Set
Warranty card dated 4/30/22, minor clasp wear otherwise indistinguishable from new.

Price is $18,000 shipped.

[malice146]

Originally Posted by soicanbefree

Wasn't someone obsessed with the pricing / availability on this watch?

Omega Speedmaster 321 Ed White 311.30.40.30.01.001 Like New Full Set
Warranty card dated 4/30/22, minor clasp wear otherwise indistinguishable from new.

Price is $18,000 shipped.

I so wish I could up vote this.


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[AbeFroman]

Originally Posted by soicanbefree

Wasn't someone obsessed with the pricing / availability on this watch?

Omega Speedmaster 321 Ed White 311.30.40.30.01.001 Like New Full Set
Warranty card dated 4/30/22, minor clasp wear otherwise indistinguishable from new.

Price is $18,000 shipped.

He’s punching the air right now reading this.

[JRedford]

Originally Posted by AbeFroman

He’s punching the air right now reading this.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by messikens

Any more recent moda updates for the 26420 and 26240?

Bnib 15510 $47k
Bnib 26420 $43k

I hope this keeps trending downwards and flushes out more flippers. Between economy and no more 50th’s after December I think it’s looking good for people actually wanting to keep long term.



26240st is what I’m after and there’s over ONE HUNDRED sitting brand new on Chrono24 right now. Something has to give soon, not a single one has sold in months it seems. People wildly overestimated the interest in those with the insane $150k asks originally. I hope those clowns got burnt. Also seems AP didn’t vouch those 240st buyers too well, or they were given as tokens to Whales who immediately flipped them. 100 brand new examples is A LOT when discussing a specific AP model.

[EEpro]

Originally Posted by dmash

Bnib 15510 $47k
Bnib 26420 $43k

I hope this keeps trending downwards and flushes out more flippers. Between economy and no more 50th’s after December I think it’s looking good for people actually wanting to keep long term.



26240st is what I’m after and there’s over ONE HUNDRED sitting brand new on Chrono24 right now. Something has to give soon, not a single one has sold in months it seems. People wildly overestimated the interest in those with the insane $150k asks originally. I hope those clowns got burnt. Also seems AP didn’t vouch those 240st buyers too well, or they were given as tokens to Whales who immediately flipped them. 100 brand new examples is A LOT when discussing a specific AP model.

Maybe once this cools off the boutique here in Vegas will actually let me get on a list. I want a white dial time only or a Chrono.

[messikens]

Originally Posted by dmash

Bnib 15510 $47k
Bnib 26420 $43k

I hope this keeps trending downwards and flushes out more flippers. Between economy and no more 50th’s after December I think it’s looking good for people actually wanting to keep long term.



26240st is what I’m after and there’s over ONE HUNDRED sitting brand new on Chrono24 right now. Something has to give soon, not a single one has sold in months it seems. People wildly overestimated the interest in those with the insane $150k asks originally. I hope those clowns got burnt. Also seems AP didn’t vouch those 240st buyers too well, or they were given as tokens to Whales who immediately flipped them. 100 brand new examples is A LOT when discussing a specific AP model.

Thanks man as always.

I agree, the amount of 26240s on C24 is insane! Even discounting the stock pic ones, there's a ton of watches out there that seem to have been flipped immediately. I sincerely hope people get burnt badly.

It's a special release but you gotta be insane to pay 6 figures for this as in the beginning... I really wonder how many folks bought this from a customer at 70-90k and now are trying to figure out how to get out of the falling knife.

Sad that any amount of vetting doesn't take care of the flipping, but I guess making a quick 50k is tempting (esp if people may think that they don't have a realistic chance at a CE / QP / Tourb without spending another 300k and hence don't mind ruining their relationship)


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[Vince_76]

The 50ths had a particularly absurd run up in price, so wouldn’t be surprised by a continuous and precipitous drop.

There’s a lot of royal oaks sitting (50th and older refs). I think a lot of refs will stabilize near or even below retail. You’re already seeing that with ROOs. I believe I saw a 15450 in the mid/high 20s brand new.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by messikens

Thanks man as always.

I agree, the amount of 26240s on C24 is insane! Even discounting the stock pic ones, there's a ton of watches out there that seem to have been flipped immediately. I sincerely hope people get burnt badly.

It's a special release but you gotta be insane to pay 6 figures for this as in the beginning... I really wonder how many folks bought this from a customer at 70-90k and now are trying to figure out how to get out of the falling knife.

Sad that any amount of vetting doesn't take care of the flipping, but I guess making a quick 50k is tempting (esp if people may think that they don't have a realistic chance at a CE / QP / Tourb without spending another 300k and hence don't mind ruining their relationship)


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I am loving any flipper who bought a ROC at $60-$80k thinking it was a 6 figure flipper and is now sitting on a $20k loss instead. Put them out of the game for good

Sorry but not sorry, just gotten bitter at this point. I absolutely love for my watches to maintain MSRP, but this other nonsense is out of control.

[train-time]

Fed announced another 75-basis point rate hike today. Tighten your seat belts!!

[eijiboy]

Originally Posted by train-time

Fed announced another 75-basis point rate hike today. Tighten your seat belts!!

No wonder stocks plummet all of a sudden right before they close


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[Fedpete]

Expect another two rounds of this before year end.


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