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Old 22 September 2022, 05:12 PM   #1141
*M5
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Not here to give an account of the market because I may not be qualified to do so but as a buyer and a collector I don't really see much change, prices are still a ridiculous amount over msrp, there is absolutely no availability with any of my local ADs or throughout my travels, and most places are not even 'considering' putting new buyers on the list.

Vacheron specifically asked me purchase 2-3 non desirable models to be vetted for an Overseas. Rolex was not even willing to budge on a bulk buy (wanted to get a ladies model for my wife).

Please note that these are all places where I have spend history.


My experiences are very recent, your mileage may vary.

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Old 22 September 2022, 08:59 PM   #1142
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Originally Posted by *M5 View Post
Not here to give an account of the market because I may not be qualified to do so but as a buyer and a collector I don't really see much change, prices are still a ridiculous amount over msrp, there is absolutely no availability with any of my local ADs or throughout my travels, and most places are not even 'considering' putting new buyers on the list.

Vacheron specifically asked me purchase 2-3 non desirable models to be vetted for an Overseas. Rolex was not even willing to budge on a bulk buy (wanted to get a ladies model for my wife).

Please note that these are all places where I have spend history.


My experiences are very recent, your mileage may vary.

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Supply is still very low relative to demand. I know for sure demand is dropping though. My AD said they still sell everything before it arrives but now they have to go further down the list.
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Old 23 September 2022, 04:30 AM   #1143
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Any more recent moda updates for the 26420 and 26240?
There’s a brand new complete 26240 stainless steel with blue dial AP on Moda for $82k. Listed yesterday, and still available.
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Old 23 September 2022, 04:42 AM   #1144
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There’s a brand new complete 26240 stainless steel with blue dial AP on Moda for $82k. Listed yesterday, and still available.
White and black have sat even at $50k

AP market is giving. Very happy.
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Old 23 September 2022, 06:03 AM   #1145
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Rg olive dial dd now at 54 bnib


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Old 23 September 2022, 08:16 AM   #1146
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Supply is still very low relative to demand. I know for sure demand is dropping though. My AD said they still sell everything before it arrives but now they have to go further down the list.
Same here in Michigan.

Grays will keep dropping prices and ADs will have to move further down their waiting lists, but as long as they have SOMEONE on the list who will buy at MSRP, they won't put them on display. From the outside, it will appear as if the market is completely unchanged at the AD shelves. Joe sixpack with a windfall will still walk into his AD and find nothing available.

Once gray/used prices on SS models fall below retail, AD shelves will start to populate. Then the game will be up, at least for awhile.

After the recession, people will forget these times. Grays will again corner the market and drive up prices, and we'll be right back to the bad old days again.
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Old 23 September 2022, 08:33 AM   #1147
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This blows my mind. It reminds me of the time Micheal Jackson passed away and his paraphernalia skyrocketed to insane prices... then came back down within a year or so.
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Old 23 September 2022, 11:44 AM   #1148
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Same here in Michigan.

Grays will keep dropping prices and ADs will have to move further down their waiting lists, but as long as they have SOMEONE on the list who will buy at MSRP, they won't put them on display. From the outside, it will appear as if the market is completely unchanged at the AD shelves. Joe sixpack with a windfall will still walk into his AD and find nothing available.

Once gray/used prices on SS models fall below retail, AD shelves will start to populate. Then the game will be up, at least for awhile.

After the recession, people will forget these times. Grays will again corner the market and drive up prices, and we'll be right back to the bad old days again.
Well said!!
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Old 23 September 2022, 12:24 PM   #1149
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White and black have sat even at $50k

AP market is giving. Very happy.


Thanks dmash and honus, I will be getting my popcorn ready until I can pick it up close to retail... doesnt seem that far off. Give it another Fed rate hike and we may get there...
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Old 23 September 2022, 01:15 PM   #1150
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Same here in Michigan.

Grays will keep dropping prices and ADs will have to move further down their waiting lists, but as long as they have SOMEONE on the list who will buy at MSRP, they won't put them on display. From the outside, it will appear as if the market is completely unchanged at the AD shelves. Joe sixpack with a windfall will still walk into his AD and find nothing available.

Once gray/used prices on SS models fall below retail, AD shelves will start to populate. Then the game will be up, at least for awhile.

After the recession, people will forget these times. Grays will again corner the market and drive up prices, and we'll be right back to the bad old days again.

Yep.


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Old 23 September 2022, 02:11 PM   #1151
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Once gray/used prices on SS models fall below retail, AD shelves will start to populate. Then the game will be up, at least for awhile.

After the recession, people will forget these times. Grays will again corner the market and drive up prices, and we'll be right back to the bad old days again.
There was a perfect storm that gave a lot of people more money than they ever expected or deserved; the end of the recession won't necessarily mean the economy gets as crazy as before. I made a small fortune in real estate and lost a lot of money in 08-09 (on paper anyway). That experience made me more cautious during the recent run up in asset prices.

Hopefully there are lessons learned by the "windfall rich", who decided it was okay to pay 100%+++ markup over MSRP, and they are a bit tighter with their money in the future. The idea of mass produced watches as an "asset class" is pretty new (grey dealers on Youtube proclaiming "watches never go down in price" ) and no doubt a lot of "investors" are getting burned, or at a minimum are upside right now.

I also have some hope that the influencers & hype chasers find another trinket to latch onto and watches aren't the "it thing" going forward. Their popularity on such a grand scale is/was a new phenomenon and it may fade with time.

I hope anyway...
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Old Yesterday, 08:55 AM   #1152
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Message to people who are in a list to only make money: https://youtu.be/9MXgdp6HfYQ?t=1995



Bad surprise to a:
- Guy selling a GMT PM: https://youtu.be/9MXgdp6HfYQ?t=1917
- Guy selling a Sub: https://youtu.be/9MXgdp6HfYQ?t=2030
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Old Yesterday, 10:08 AM   #1153
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After the recession, people will forget these times. Grays will again corner the market and drive up prices, and we'll be right back to the bad old days again.


In my opinion:

You and a lot of others are defaulting to watches still maintaining the same amount of popularity post 'hype'/being worth more than retail. 100% there are some new faces who are into horology, but that number is incredibly small in the overall picture. As prices continue to fall back down, owners will leave in droves, new buyers will dry up and we'll settle around MSRP. I know for a fact there's tons of guys who have their entire savings strapped on the wrist because they think it's a good investment. When that starts dissipating they will sell ASAP to recoup what they paid as it's quite literally, most all of the money they have.

Furthermore, I think a run up like the last 2 years will never happen again. Just like the stimulus money, the stock market, so many variables....this was a once in a lifetime thing....I highly doubt anything like this will ever happen again in my lifetime.

Why is everyone casually forgetting that around 2015/2016 Swiss watchmakers were doing serious market research at how to get individuals back into horology as it was starting to be seen as an antiquated trinket? Are people really this blind to think this type of market reality will never return? Watches are not an essential good, they're overpriced jewelry.

If anything though, this all circles back to, it's absolutely insane to ever look at watches as a store of wealth and especially not an investment.
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Old Yesterday, 10:24 AM   #1154
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If anything though, this all circles back to, it's absolutely insane to ever look at watches as a store of wealth and especially not an investment.

It is a little funny that people buy a luxury car, drive it a few years and expect to lose most of the value, while buying reasonably “affordable” luxury watches and have heart palpitations if they don’t appreciate.

I’m all for making the best deal and not throwing money away, but even in the “good old days,” there were a lot of people who wouldn’t buy outside Rolex for fear of a lack of value retention.

How much does your wife expect to get for her Kelly or Birkin in 5 or 10 years? Or you, for your 911 Turbo with 75k miles?
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Old Yesterday, 01:20 PM   #1155
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These things tend to become merely second hand until they become "vintage" and then suddenly appreciate.
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Old Yesterday, 01:41 PM   #1156
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Well the idea of a good re-sell value was fun while it lasted but those days seem far behind already.
Though it’s sad to make that a factor in making a purchase.


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Old Yesterday, 02:06 PM   #1157
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Can anyone please update us on the latest Moda prices>
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Old Yesterday, 09:46 PM   #1158
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Can anyone please update us on the latest Moda prices>
Is there a certain model you’re looking for?
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Old Yesterday, 10:37 PM   #1159
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Is there a certain model you’re looking for?

I would take a bead on DD40 olive. Thank you!


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Old Yesterday, 10:56 PM   #1160
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Any patek 5164’s on moda? Price?


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Old Today, 03:51 AM   #1161
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I would take a bead on DD40 olive. Thank you!


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54K. Not moving, no offer.
55.5K Watch + Card. An offer at 52K.
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Old Today, 04:49 AM   #1162
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54K. Not moving, no offer.
55.5K Watch + Card. An offer at 52K.
‘An offer’

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Old Today, 04:56 AM   #1163
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Any patek 5164’s on moda? Price?


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5164A dated September 2015, full set. Asking price $66.9k
Listing marked as sold on 19 September
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Old Today, 05:04 AM   #1164
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5164A dated September 2015, full set. Asking price $66.9k
Listing marked as sold on 19 September

Ok thank you


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Old Today, 06:40 AM   #1165
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54K. Not moving, no offer.
55.5K Watch + Card. An offer at 52K.
It’s amazing, 7 months ago, these dd rose greens were $90-$95k.

I would really love the idea that these hit msrp in the next year. It’s looking more hopeful with each passing month. I’d grab one!!!
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Old Today, 08:20 AM   #1166
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It’s amazing, 7 months ago, these dd rose greens were $90-$95k.

I would really love the idea that these hit msrp in the next year. It’s looking more hopeful with each passing month. I’d grab one!!!
its coming soon to msrp. Now the cookie monster and rg rootbeer are selling below msrp plus tax
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Old Today, 08:35 AM   #1167
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It’s amazing, 7 months ago, these dd rose greens were $90-$95k.

I would really love the idea that these hit msrp in the next year. It’s looking more hopeful with each passing month. I’d grab one!!!
Remember that the guy selling his "slider watch" acquired from an AD can only expect these "chat groups' prices" if he sells it to a final customer (which is not an easy game). If he wants to sell to a dealer, he will have to lower at msrp + tax or a little below depending of the model. Of course, there are exceptions in all brands AP, RX, PP, etc (but the list is getting smaller).

Reasons:
- market is flooded with pieces.
- dealers do not want to hold the risk.
- dealers can source any ref in 24 hours.
- etc.
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Old Today, 09:40 AM   #1168
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its coming soon to msrp. Now the cookie monster and rg rootbeer are selling below msrp plus tax
Basically the last references to take off were the first to drop drastically in secondary prices.
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