Prices slump by up to 50% for discontinued Rolex watches (Watchpro)

[EEpro]

Originally Posted by AbeFroman

Wasn’t that aftermarket meteorite dial disclosed though? I thought the seller mentioned it in the ad.

Def no. Text says 116509 meteorite mint like new condition short 1, box and paper. $123,500 free shipping.

[JRedford]

Originally Posted by EEpro

Def no. Text says 116509 meteorite mint like new condition short 1, box and paper. $123,500 free shipping.

If true, clear misrepresentation. Seems odd given all posts are reviewed by a moderator.

My experience with them is they frown on that. Most of the sellers and buyers are sophisticated dealers. You may get them once but it is doubtful you will remain a member, it seems like a tight knit group.

FWIW, I just completed my second transaction. Both went smoothly. With that said, no white glove service. Know what you are buying and vet the seller.

[train-time]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

September will be very telling. Summer’s over, kids are back to school, etc.

If the market doesn’t bounce, I don’t know what excuse market bulls will use next.

Reading this thread has been interesting and enlightening. I have been in the financial services industry one way or another since the 1970's and have seen all the trends. I have been sitting back and observing the watch market over the past few years and have noticed the recent change of the last few months from afar.

Oddly enough the run up in the watch market and other financial markets i.e. housing, interest rates, retail, etc was widely impacted by the economic effects associated with a Worldwide pandemic and we haven't seen anything like this before at least in my lifetime.

I believe we are transitioning out of the effects of the pandemic impact and will transition to a more stable, but moderate watch market in the coming months. The market will be one that we will recognize is more similar to the market of several years ago. I'm guessing we will not see the run up or rebound of the markets driven by the anomaly I am calling the pandemic market. I think secondary market prices are being held up temporarily due to higher acquisitions costs and will eventually fall as inventory is reduced. Secondary market resellers are not replacing inventory, most likely due to cash flow issues.

Time will tell if I am wrong but that's my 2 cents.

[AbeFroman]

Originally Posted by EEpro

Def no. Text says 116509 meteorite mint like new condition short 1, box and paper. $123,500 free shipping.

I must be thinking of another. I know there was a few listings of these recently. I agree with you though.

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by train-time

Reading this thread has been interesting and enlightening. I have been in the financial services industry one way or another since the 1970's and have seen all the trends. I have been sitting back and observing the watch market over the past few years and have noticed the recent change of the last few months from afar.

Oddly enough the run up in the watch market and other financial markets i.e. housing, interest rates, retail, etc was widely impacted by the economic effects associated with a Worldwide pandemic and we haven't seen anything like this before at least in my lifetime.

I believe we are transitioning out of the effects of the pandemic impact and will transition to a more stable, but moderate watch market in the coming months. The market will be one that we will recognize is more similar to the market of several years ago. I'm guessing we will not see the run up or rebound of the markets driven by the anomaly I am calling the pandemic market. I think secondary market prices are being held up temporarily due to higher acquisitions costs and will eventually fall as inventory is reduced. Secondary market resellers are not replacing inventory, most likely due to cash flow issues.

Time will tell if I am wrong but that's my 2 cents.

Fully agree. I’m in finance as well, and appreciate the healthy discourse here. I hope, and fully expect, a more rational watch market to stabilize.

[QuelleHeureEstIl]

Originally Posted by train-time

reading this thread has been interesting and enlightening. I have been in the financial services industry one way or another since the 1970's and have seen all the trends. I have been sitting back and observing the watch market over the past few years and have noticed the recent change of the last few months from afar.

Oddly enough the run up in the watch market and other financial markets i.e. Housing, interest rates, retail, etc was widely impacted by the economic effects associated with a worldwide pandemic and we haven't seen anything like this before at least in my lifetime.

I believe we are transitioning out of the effects of the pandemic impact and will transition to a more stable, but moderate watch market in the coming months. The market will be one that we will recognize is more similar to the market of several years ago. I'm guessing we will not see the run up or rebound of the markets driven by the anomaly i am calling the pandemic market. I think secondary market prices are being held up temporarily due to higher acquisitions costs and will eventually fall as inventory is reduced. Secondary market resellers are not replacing inventory, most likely due to cash flow issues.

Time will tell if i am wrong but that's my 2 cents.

100%

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by mquarter

It's hilarious. I've got a saved search alert on C24 for 116500 which has retrieves 500 entries. Every day dealers add new listings at prices that just fall somewhere in the middle/upper half of the range ... what's the point??

You see this on MODA as well. For example there’s a BNIB Panda Daytona listed at a hefty price, and you have people commenting “Markets back! 🚀” and “up up and away”. Meanwhile there hasn’t been any offers let alone a sale. Mind you, the guys commenting are trying to juice the market as they’re all high volume sellers on there.

The amount of product sitting at recent lows is quite telling.

[Booth9999]

The only thing I’m buying right now are discontinued pieces that I’ve been watching for a bit. I feel like I might over pay short term but I’m comfortable with that to get them as there not making them any more. Everything that is available at AD; I’m watching the market to see where prices settle in the next year. Also I’m thinking it is time to move into my first PM piece so I’ll need the time to let the watch fund grow.

[QuelleHeureEstIl]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

You see this on MODA as well. For example there’s a BNIB Panda Daytona listed at a hefty price, and you have people commenting “Markets back! ��” and “up up and away”. Meanwhile there hasn’t been any offers let alone a sale. Mind you, the guys commenting are trying to juice the market as they’re all high volume sellers on there.

It is a mini WallStreetBet (Reddit)... It is crashing but floods of comments to "the moon" or "Diamond hands".

Hope (for them) these guys acts before Quantitative Tightening starts.

Originally Posted by Vince_76

The amount of product sitting at recent lows is quite telling.

Greys are not restocking massively as they are advising their customers. It is pretty telling. :)

[RationalPragmatist]

Only with Rolex can a market value above original MSRP be called a slump.

[soicanbefree]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

You see this on MODA as well. For example there’s a BNIB Panda Daytona listed at a hefty price, and you have people commenting “Markets back! 🚀” and “up up and away”. Meanwhile there hasn’t been any offers let alone a sale. Mind you, the guys commenting are trying to juice the market as they’re all high volume sellers on there.

The amount of product sitting at recent lows is quite telling.

My favorite comment is...

Cheap!

That's cheap!

On an unsold listing, of a not in demand watch, that has had 3-4 listed at the same price over the last 2 weeks.

People living in denial.

[Vince_76]

That Daytona post got deleted after over 24hrs of it sitting.

You can’t make this up.

[eijiboy]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

That Daytona post got deleted after over 24hrs of it sitting.

You can’t make this up.

Yup! after they try to push the price up. i noticed it also on skyd blue. they pushing 27k.

While here on trf theres a 2019 panda bnib for 32k

[awu]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

That Daytona post got deleted after over 24hrs of it sitting.

You can’t make this up.

Ah I see, that's what happened to that listing. I was curious ever since it was listed and was scrolling through checking to see if it actually moved since so many were exclaiming the market is back etc. Guess the market isn't back.

[trojanrolex]

I wondered how many fake sales happen on MODA between dealers to pump up prices lol

[soicanbefree]

Originally Posted by trojanrolex

I wondered how many fake sales happen on MODA between dealers to pump up prices lol

More than a few.

You should assume that if there is an easy, costless, method to manipulate prices or perception of prices it will be done.

A subjective take of mine is that it is starting to reek a little bit of desperation there.

If anyone tracked volume of postings / sales closed it would be easier to tell.

It feels like some odd ball / junkier listings coming out of the wood work. A higher volume of stale / now overpriced listings and few sales.

Totally subjective take.

Bitcoin is off 25% from August Peak. Stocks about 10%

[AbeFroman]

Originally Posted by trojanrolex

I wondered how many fake sales happen on MODA between dealers to pump up prices lol

Oh man, don’t get me started. I caught an auction for a 228235 RG olive dial DD40. The first auction had a new member win that joined the day prior and bid the price up $20k more than the recent high. She ended up winning.

Approx one week later, the same watch returns but with new pics and slightly tweaked description. I knew it was the same watch because it was a unique example (fully stickered, early 2018 model). I was able to confirm by matching the QR code on the 9 o’clock side of the case. The second auction resulted in substantially lower bids.

I did a large post w/ screenshots about it in one of the numerous threads that were deleted from the general sub forum. Vadim even chimed in saying the reason was the original buyer fell through and as a result forfeited her $5k deposit. I didn’t buy it because why wouldn’t they just sell to the second highest bidder vs make a new auction, and why not disclose that in the new auction? Suspect imo.

My guess is they didn’t get a high enough bid on the first auction to sell and were using shill accounts.

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by AbeFroman

Oh man, don’t get me started. I caught an auction for a 228235 RG olive dial DD40. The first auction had a new member win that joined the day prior and bid the price up $20k more than the recent high. She ended up winning.

Approx one week later, the same watch returns but with new pics and slightly tweaked description. I knew it was the same watch because it was a unique example (fully stickered, early 2018 model). I was able to confirm by matching the QR code on the 9 o’clock side of the case. The second auction resulted in substantially lower bids.

I did a large post w/ screenshots about it in one of the numerous threads that were deleted from the general sub forum. Vadim even chimed in saying the reason was the original buyer fell through and as a result forfeited her $5k deposit. I didn’t buy it because why wouldn’t they just sell to the second highest bidder vs make a new auction, and why not disclose that in the new auction? Suspect imo.

My guess is they didn’t get a high enough bid on the first auction to sell and were using shill accounts.

Great insight - I remember that. Given the sheer number of dealer to dealer transactions in there, and the recent influx of retail buyers (group size has been consistently growing), I’d think this goes on quite often.

[JRedford]

In the end no matter how they try, Moda can not control the market.

Over time it is a good barometer for pricing. Much of what is listed does not sell. I have been able to purchase two watches at a considerable discount, neither were Rolex.

Do you homework and buy the seller. It’s the Wild West in a lot of ways.

[soicanbefree]

The auction format is a total joke. Of course it will be filled with schills and zero accountability. I would only ever participate if it was a one of a kind / super hard to find watch.

I would never expect anything to go for a true steal either. Seller's buddy is always going to outbid you. Zero fees or consequences for not following through.

[EEpro]

Originally Posted by soicanbefree

The auction format is a total joke. Of course it will be filled with schills and zero accountability. I would only ever participate if it was a one of a kind / super hard to find watch.

I would never expect anything to go for a true steal either. Seller's buddy is always going to outbid you. Zero fees or consequences for not following through.

Platona for $113k seemed pretty good to me.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[awu]

Originally Posted by AbeFroman

Oh man, don’t get me started. I caught an auction for a 228235 RG olive dial DD40. The first auction had a new member win that joined the day prior and bid the price up $20k more than the recent high. She ended up winning.

Approx one week later, the same watch returns but with new pics and slightly tweaked description. I knew it was the same watch because it was a unique example (fully stickered, early 2018 model). I was able to confirm by matching the QR code on the 9 o’clock side of the case. The second auction resulted in substantially lower bids.

I did a large post w/ screenshots about it in one of the numerous threads that were deleted from the general sub forum. Vadim even chimed in saying the reason was the original buyer fell through and as a result forfeited her $5k deposit. I didn’t buy it because why wouldn’t they just sell to the second highest bidder vs make a new auction, and why not disclose that in the new auction? Suspect imo.

My guess is they didn’t get a high enough bid on the first auction to sell and were using shill accounts.

Nice catch and good info.

[Vince_76]

Look at this morning’s inflation report. Prices aren’t bouncing back anytime soon, and have definitely not stabilized

[AbeFroman]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

Look at this morning’s inflation report. Prices aren’t bouncing back anytime soon, and have definitely not stabilized

Right.

I would like to also add that Core CPI for August is at 6.3%, up (worsened) from 5.9% in June & July. This is very telling because Core CPI excludes food and energy in its calculations, which are both volatile. It goes to show how widespread the pricing pressures are in the economy.

Anyone that thinks that the watch market has bottomed out already and is on the path of recovery is sorely mistaken. IMO, I think we are in for at least another 2-3 rate hikes before a pause is even considered.

[Rolexatlast]

High inflation may drive watch demand, if people believe that watches are a safer investment than leaving their money in the bank to depreciate

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by Rolexatlast

High inflation may drive watch demand, if people believe that watches are a safer investment than leaving their money in the bank to depreciate

No. Watches are not a hedge against inflation. Even if that was the case, then you’d see multifamily REITs’ stock price skyrocket. In fact, they’re down today (like pretty much everything) upon today’s inflation report, and for the year.

What you’re saying is not how any of this works.

[train-time]

Originally Posted by AbeFroman

Right.

I would like to also add that Core CPI for August is at 6.3%, up (worsened) from 5.9% in June & July. This is very telling because Core CPI excludes food and energy in its calculations, which are both volatile. It goes to show how widespread the pricing pressures are in the economy.

Anyone that thinks that the watch market has bottomed out already and is on the path of recovery is sorely mistaken. IMO, I think we are in for at least another 2-3 rate hikes before a pause is even considered.

CPI inflation well above the expected levels caused large losses for stocks and bonds today. Demand was stronger than average for the 30yr Treasury auction, as investors received the largest yields in years. In addition, 2yr Treasury yields reached the highest levels since 2007. The Dow is down 1,300 points.

Keep your eye on the housing market six months out. Values are already falling with interest rates tripled since the beginning of the year. Gonna be a rough ride into next year despite the great investment in watches.

[soicanbefree]

Let's see if I can really break this down Barney Style for the crowd.

1) Core inflation print comes in hot. (Higher than expected)
2) High print forces the Fed to increase rate. (75-100 basis points next meeting)
3) Future expectation of higher rates cause Treasuries to increase, Dollar to increase, valuations to decrease.

Everything is priced off the risk free rate (RFR) (Treasuries). Higher RFR = Higher yield your assets must produce to justify it's valuation. Everything must be repriced. All assets.

Simultaneously people are going to experience:

1) Inflation. Higher day to day prices. Rent is up. Food is up. Gas is up.
2) Saving depletion and higher borrowing costs for all major purchases.
3) Asset valuations down. They are going to literally be poorer.
4) The Fed actively trying to "cool" inflation by destroying their jobs / wealth / earnings power.
5) There is not free money coming in to save us. The previous solution is the problem. We have barely even begun quantitively tightening.

This is mega bullish for high end trinkets. (Rolex Watches). (/sarcasm)

With that said we never seem to allow the destruction to come. Maybe they blink. Market keeps trying to rally into this for some reason that I don't understand.

[Andy0331]

Originally Posted by soicanbefree

5) There is not free money coming in to save us. The previous solution is the problem. We have barely even begun quantitively tightening.

Yep. Hard for this to not be interpreted as political, but in the US, both parties, all administrations over the past ~12 years (arguably 20) have been kicking this can down the road so it's "not them". Frankly, I'm surprised it's taken so long.

I know the USD loses money over the long term, but in the not so distant future, "having cash" and minimal/no liabilities will be invaluable for riding out the storm and/or profiting in the aftermath.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by Andy0331

Yep. Hard for this to not be interpreted as political, but in the US, both parties, all administrations over the past ~12 years (arguably 20) have been kicking this can down the road so it's "not them". Frankly, I'm surprised it's taken so long.

I know the USD loses money over the long term, but in the not so distant future, "having cash" and minimal/no liabilities will be invaluable for riding out the storm and/or profiting in the aftermath.

or for some, even 'having a job' and not a 2-3 year gap sans employment will be invaluable. There's still people living off crypto earnings, wfh side gigs and trying to be 'day traders' who are going be up the creek with no paddle in my opinion. Who have been shunning a normal job as being for losers. This population is larger than one might think. and in my opinion, prospective employers for white collar type jobs are going to start being highly selective in the next 6-12 months, because they have the ability to do so.

I for one wish this would all just come and we get it over with. It can't continue to get punted, we have to pay the piper at some point. There's an entire slew of newly minted adults though who believe that the government can/will always bail them out if they're in trouble, as they just experienced that once in the lifetime COVID $ influx. Will be a major learning lesson for them. I had mine in the 06 housing crash, not fun.