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Old 20 March 2020, 10:36 PM   #2971
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No offense, but this is exactly the type of mindset that needs to change. A helmet doesn't necessarily make any difference to a soldier if a large enough explosive detonates under his vehicle, but the soldier still wears the helmet.

This virus is has asymptomatic transmission. A mask on 1 person acts as a barrier for droplets may expel onto another. A 2nd mask on another person creates a 2nd barrier. 2 barriers is better than 1, 1 barrier is better than none. No barriers and you're just trusting to luck or some debatable theory.

Everyone wearing masks creates multiple barriers. It also creates a barrier against your own fingers touching your own face. It's also a constant reminder not to do so, to remain vigilant.

Masks also create a general awareness of the situation, and helps develop the collective mindset that its important everyone is doing their part.

During this, would you rather be among a populace that is clearly vigilant and aware and taking every precaution, or would you rather be among those who look for reasons why NOT to do something?


Totally agree with you which is why in public anywhere I have been wearing a mask yet you still hear the “jeez” “whoa” comments in the aisles . And to those that say it doesn’t help I say bs. Wash your hands before you put the mask on wash your hands after and every time you touch it . Sucks but if done right it works . So yeah for the ones out there convincing themselves it doesn’t matter , I say get a clue but I am doing my part
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Old 20 March 2020, 10:42 PM   #2972
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My advice for all of us.



1. How about no political views?

2. Keep in mind, there's such a thing as right and wrong. There are no reasons to be unkind, but this is a time when misinformation is harmful. Misinformation needs to be corrected. This is not a time when we can afford ignorance to be defended with "well that's my opinion", "my gut", "it's a hoax", "we have it under control".

3. Being civil to each other is how we survive this. All this anxiety we're carrying needs to vent and if we're not careful we can burn that energy in fits of meanness. That in turn takes focus and when we lose focus people get sick and die.

4. It's critical not be stupid. If someone believes your gut, non-factual opinion, or flat-out misinformation, people get sick and die. Don't turn a blunt correction into a referendum on etiquette.

I agree - sometimes the rhetoric obscured the real facts.

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I hope not.



Nothing wrong with discussion.



No reason to attack people with dissenting viewpoints.



I hope we can all learn from this and simply move on.

I certainly understand - I was sharing the devolution slope that I sensed.

Just unsure what Mods might do if the topic became overheated. Closure has happened here once and then resurrected by Steve with a stern warning.

That was nearly 2000 posts ago and before some of the hotheads hit the thread.


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Old 20 March 2020, 10:46 PM   #2973
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Exercise to burn off that anxious energy. It helps. It also seems that the healthier you are when you get this, the better your outcome, so why not invest?

Keep a schedule. That "idle hands" thing mother told you is in play here.
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Old 20 March 2020, 10:47 PM   #2974
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I agree - sometimes the rhetoric obscured the real facts.




I certainly understand - I was sharing the devolution slope that I sensed.

Just unsure what Mods might do if the topic became overheated. Closure has happened here once and then resurrected by Steve with a stern warning.

That was nearly 2000 posts ago and before some of the hotheads hit the thread.


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understood. and agree. hopefully your comments will help everyone, myself included, cool off and think with a more level head.

again, as this whole thing evolves, I have learned a ton from this thread. and I still am.
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Old 20 March 2020, 10:47 PM   #2975
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Exercise to burn off that anxious energy. It helps. It also seems that the healthier you are when you get this, the better your outcome, so why not invest?

Keep a schedule. That "idle hands" thing mother told you is in play here.
agree with this 100%.

great post.

cant be repeated enough.
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Old 20 March 2020, 11:00 PM   #2976
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I think all we can hope is Northern Italy is an anomaly and we can avoid that level of devastation

I’m severely worried and as someone who has had mental health issues for many years it’s impact is horrendous.


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Old 20 March 2020, 11:03 PM   #2977
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We are all experiencing this in different ways. Proximity, pace, prior experience all play into our expectations and opinions. This is compounded by the emotional aspect of health, financial and societal disruption. With those variables in mind it should not surprise anyone that views and opinions are strongly felt and sometimes expressed indelicately.

That does not however need to translate into a lack of respect...

Unfortunately last night I allowed my own experience of knowing people suffering health consequences to express myself in a needlessly aggressive way. Patton250 I am sorry, you deserve better!

I ask you all to recognize that for some people on this forum this discussion is purely a theoretical conversation while for others it is fast becoming a health crisis. One persons opinion can be contradicted by an other persons reality. Under such a scenario it is tempting to be dismissive of one another but ultimately doing so prevents the intended goal of informing one another.

Stay safe all.
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Old 20 March 2020, 11:11 PM   #2978
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People want to complain about leaders and if they did this or that.

Meanwhile, they themselves are going to pubs, touching their faces, kissing and hugging their friends and family. Having extended family dinners. Taking unnecessary trips in public. Hitting the beach. Not wearing/Debating the use of face masks because it's not their "culture" to do so. Doing the minimum required, balancing the inconveniences against the lifestyle to determine whether they're worth doing or not.

Then they wonder why the virus hits fertile ground when it shows up instead of a barren field that could limit it's spread....why, why didn't the leaders do something.

It's the Information Age for the last 25+ years and this thing has been reported-on and discussed for months.

A week ago NYC had fewer cases than HK (7.5 million, which shares a border with China and far more congested living and commuting conditions than NYC, and had a 2-month head start on infections) and now has about 165 cases with 4 deaths. HK Restaurants and bars and shops are still open and I'll be venturing out for some shopping in awhile with vigilance but no fear because I'll be among a populace where everyone is highly aware how it can be spread and behaving accordingly.. in a way to minimize it all the time. Almost everyone will be wearing masks, using hand sanitizer, and I'll see masked-up, gloved workers sanitizing handrails, knobs, grocery cart handles etc etc. Almost nobody will be hugging or kissing or sneezing and coughing. If they were doing the latter, they won't be out.

There will be an additional 20,000 people not out there because that's the number currently home quarantined in HK, with electronic ankle bracelets and wristbands that will alert the authorities if they go outside their homes for 2 weeks after, even with no symptoms, being exposed to someone or arriving from anywhere else in the world besides Macau or Taiwan. Those don't include those in medical quarantine who definitely have contracted the virus or tried to enter with the virus.

7 days later, today, NYC is reporting 3,600 cases and a jump of 1,600 cases in 1 day.

There's really no debate as to what tactically works in order to create the mostly-barren ground for the strategy to be successful, but it requires almost everyone to get on the same page and change behavior, in particular hygiene and how and how much they interact with one another.

Dont change behavior as preventative measure, or change them too little, then the real problem does become how many ventilators can be manufactured, hospital ships activated, and ethical questions answered re triage etc.
The response and subsequent results that HK has displayed in combating the virus are absolutely awesome. It is possible to mitigate this virus within a large and congested populace. I guess it comes down to planning, discipline and real effort....with a little help from the weather...
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Old 20 March 2020, 11:15 PM   #2979
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bryant Park View Post
We are all experiencing this in different ways. Proximity, pace, prior experience all play into our expectations and opinions. This is compounded by the emotional aspect of health, financial and societal disruption. With those variables in mind it should not surprise anyone that views and opinions are strongly felt and sometimes expressed indelicately.

That does not however need to translate into a lack of respect...

Unfortunately last night I allowed my own experience of knowing people suffering health consequences to express myself in a needlessly aggressive way. Patton250 I am sorry, you deserve better!

I ask you all to recognize that for some people on this forum this discussion is purely a theoretical conversation while for others it is fast becoming a health crisis. One persons opinion can be contradicted by an other persons reality. Under such a scenario it is tempting to be dismissive of one another but ultimately doing so prevents the intended goal of informing one another.

Stay safe all.

you are a true gentleman.
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Old 20 March 2020, 11:18 PM   #2980
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bryant Park View Post
We are all experiencing this in different ways. Proximity, pace, prior experience all play into our expectations and opinions. This is compounded by the emotional aspect of health, financial and societal disruption. With those variables in mind it should not surprise anyone that views and opinions are strongly felt and sometimes expressed indelicately.

That does not however need to translate into a lack of respect...

Unfortunately last night I allowed my own experience of knowing people suffering health consequences to express myself in a needlessly aggressive way. Patton250 I am sorry, you deserve better!

I ask you all to recognize that for some people on this forum this discussion is purely a theoretical conversation while for others it is fast becoming a health crisis. One persons opinion can be contradicted by an other persons reality. Under such a scenario it is tempting to be dismissive of one another but ultimately doing so prevents the intended goal of informing one another.

Stay safe all.
No worries Bryant. It’s all good my friend. I’m very sorry for what you’re going through. I totally understand. Thank you and stay safe.

Brett
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Old 20 March 2020, 11:26 PM   #2981
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Just out of interest has anyone seen Ant Middleton’s social media posts? (Ex-SAS, on TV a lot in the U.K.)

If you think some of the posts on here are insensitive at times check him out. Total career suicide, absolute idiot.


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Old 20 March 2020, 11:34 PM   #2982
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This is the final warning to all, keep this thread civil and on subject, as mark my words no matter the member or members responsible they will have there account closed permanently
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Old 20 March 2020, 11:36 PM   #2983
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This is the final warning to all, keep this thread civil and on subject, as mark my words no matter the member or members responsible they will have there account closed permanently




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Old 21 March 2020, 01:31 AM   #2984
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When making a decision in an attempt to solve a problem, you always need to ask yourself, “What if this doesn’t work?”

The US CDC, perhaps too influenced by SARS data, decided to control the development and processing of virus tests in the US. That was a bad decision- the CDC and state agencies never got output over a couple hundred tests per day. It is only now, after private industry was enlisted, that the required scale could be handled. If they had made the decion to seek help from the private sector weeks earlier, we would be in a dramatically better place now.

The next decision, for the government, is “socially distance” or “ride it out”. Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and other Asian nations have had great success with social distancing. For Italy, it is too late. They are trying to self quarantine, but they are still, against their will, in a “ride it out” situation. And it is awful. They are triaging 70 year olds out of treatment, and carting off trucks of corpses for cremation. I live in freaking Arlington, Texas, and my family prays for Italy every night. So, social distancing can come too late to work.

The US needs, in my opinion, to prepare for a “ride it out” even as we try social distancing. We can’t keep this up for months. I think we need to plan for a scaled up need for respirators, for quarantined hospital beds, for more medical care providers and to fast track possible treatments and vaccines. Because, despite our best efforts, we may need them.

Agree or disagree?
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Old 21 March 2020, 01:41 AM   #2985
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NY just shut down essentially.

I hoping they do the same for NJ.
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Old 21 March 2020, 01:44 AM   #2986
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NY just shut down essentially.

I hoping they do the same for NJ.
Yes. State wide. With enforcement.

Stay safe.
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Old 21 March 2020, 01:45 AM   #2987
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And Mecklenburg County NC (Charlotte) has advised they may be close to shelter in place.

Stay safe.
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Old 21 March 2020, 01:48 AM   #2988
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When making a decision in an attempt to solve a problem, you always need to ask yourself, “What if this doesn’t work?”

The US CDC, perhaps too influenced by SARS data, decided to control the development and processing of virus tests in the US. That was a bad decision- the CDC and state agencies never got output over a couple hundred tests per day. It is only now, after private industry was enlisted, that the required scale could be handled. If they had made the decion to seek help from the private sector weeks earlier, we would be in a dramatically better place now.

The next decision, for the government, is “socially distance” or “ride it out”. Hong Kong, Japan, Korea and other Asian nations have had great success with social distancing. For Italy, it is too late. They are trying to self quarantine, but they are still, against their will, in a “ride it out” situation. And it is awful. They are triaging 70 year olds out of treatment, and carting off trucks of corpses for cremation. I live in freaking Arlington, Texas, and my family prays for Italy every night. So, social distancing can come too late to work.

The US needs, in my opinion, to prepare for a “ride it out” even as we try social distancing. We can’t keep this up for months. I think we need to plan for a scaled up need for respirators, for quarantined hospital beds, for more medical care providers and to fast track possible treatments and vaccines. Because, despite our best efforts, we may need them.

Agree or disagree?
I don't disagree completely. But my opinion is that we need to flatten the curve to buy time first. And people are not voluntarily doing enough to do that yet. And the less we do, the longer it takes to flatten the curve.

Stay safe.
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Old 21 March 2020, 01:49 AM   #2989
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Living in California, this is a bad situation.
I understand the shut down of all "non-essential businesses" because it will slow virus transmission and not overload the health care system.

But it will crush the economy by bankrupting small businesses and result in massive unemployment. There are no good choices here.

The only good thing is that the internet allows remote work, remote schooling, and streaming entertainment. What would we do if the virus happened 30 years earlier and there was no internet?
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Old 21 March 2020, 01:58 AM   #2990
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NY just shut down essentially.

I hoping they do the same for NJ.
So am I, my son is working in NJ (Jersey city), he is working from his apartment. I am so worried about him.
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Old 21 March 2020, 02:10 AM   #2991
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These are the possible outcomes in a pandemic.

1) Person becomes infected, recovers via natural immunity.
2) Person becomes infected, recovers after receiving antiviral agents.
3) Person becomes infected, dies.
4) Person avoids infection after isolating, avoiding infected persons.
5) Person receives vaccine effective against infecting agent.

At some date in the future, there will be a vaccine, and there will probably be effective antiviral drugs to decrease the severity and duration of the infection. Until then, the ONLY practical strategy against this pandemic today is isolating. We should have done it long ago, but late is better than never. I think a nationwide lockdown in the US is mandatory, and I think we will see it by the end of the weekend.
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Old 21 March 2020, 02:12 AM   #2992
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While this is not good, let's please keep things in perspective. This is not the end of the world.

"So far, the new coronavirus has led to more than 220,000 illnesses and more than 9,300 deaths worldwide. But that's nothing compared with the flu, also called influenza. In the U.S. alone, the flu has caused an estimated 36 million illnesses, 370,000 hospitalizations and 22,000 deaths this season, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). "
https://www.livescience.com/new-coro...-with-flu.html

How many people have died of hunger this year? Almost 2 million.
https://www.theworldcounts.com/chall...nger-each-year

The corona virus will probably cause a peak that will stretch or break the health care systems of some countries over a relatively short period. It is not the end of the world. I suspect the greatest damage will be economic damage caused in part by poor leadership. Let's stay positive. Look at China for example. They are pulling out of this. For an example of a country that is dealing with this well, look at Singapore.
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Old 21 March 2020, 02:13 AM   #2993
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These are the possible outcomes in a pandemic.

1) Person becomes infected, recovers via natural immunity.
2) Person becomes infected, recovers after receiving antiviral agents.
3) Person becomes infected, dies.
4) Person avoids infection after isolating, avoiding infected persons.
5) Person receives vaccine effective against infecting agent.

At some date in the future, there will be a vaccine, and there will probably be effective antiviral drugs to decrease the severity and duration of the infection. Until then, the ONLY practical strategy against this pandemic today is isolating. We should have done it long ago, but late is better than never. I think a nationwide lockdown in the US is mandatory, and I think we will see it by the end of the weekend.

Antimalarial drug, Hydroxychloroquine(plaquenil), which is showing promise in treating coronavirus is now on back order for all pharmacies.
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Old 21 March 2020, 02:31 AM   #2994
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its about time that NYC shut down. We still had tourists wandering around the last few days. I think the tristate area and other states will soon follow suit. We are able to conduct 10,000 tests minimum a day now so expect to see the numbers spiking up dramatically over the next few days and coming week. I have free reign to travel around because I help manage and maintain an operation logistics software and system for an essential NYC government agency but I've postponed all new installs and will minimize travel to only emergency repair. The government office workers are 70% working from home except for the uniformed agencies like Sanitation, Police, and Fire are all ramping up their forces to reinforce the new "restrictions"
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Old 21 March 2020, 02:33 AM   #2995
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Originally Posted by joeychitwood View Post
These are the possible outcomes in a pandemic.

1) Person becomes infected, recovers via natural immunity.
2) Person becomes infected, recovers after receiving antiviral agents.
3) Person becomes infected, dies.
4) Person avoids infection after isolating, avoiding infected persons.
5) Person receives vaccine effective against infecting agent.

At some date in the future, there will be a vaccine, and there will probably be effective antiviral drugs to decrease the severity and duration of the infection. Until then, the ONLY practical strategy against this pandemic today is isolating. We should have done it long ago, but late is better than never. I think a nationwide lockdown in the US is mandatory, and I think we will see it by the end of the weekend.
How long do you think the entire country should stay in lockdown? Lockdown meeting absolutely no one goes to work?
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Old 21 March 2020, 02:34 AM   #2996
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I think London needs locking down, critical incident in one of the hospitals as they have run out of beds already


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Old 21 March 2020, 02:39 AM   #2997
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Originally Posted by joeychitwood View Post
These are the possible outcomes in a pandemic.

1) Person becomes infected, recovers via natural immunity.
2) Person becomes infected, recovers after receiving antiviral agents.
3) Person becomes infected, dies.
4) Person avoids infection after isolating, avoiding infected persons.
5) Person receives vaccine effective against infecting agent.

At some date in the future, there will be a vaccine, and there will probably be effective antiviral drugs to decrease the severity and duration of the infection. Until then, the ONLY practical strategy against this pandemic today is isolating. We should have done it long ago, but late is better than never. I think a nationwide lockdown in the US is mandatory, and I think we will see it by the end of the weekend.
With your medical background I'd be curious to hear your thoughts if you think #5 is possible. From my knowledge, the below are the 7 Coronaviruses that infect humans. I'm not familiar with a reliable vaccine for any of these though, so very curious how we will develop one effective against SARS-COV-2. I'm not an epidemiologist though, so perhaps virus coding is different and more targetable with this compared to others. Though it doesn't seem much progress has been made with the 3 below that potentially cause acute respiratory syndrome. Perhaps there have not been enough cases prior though to justify full research of the ARS causing infections?

Common Cold Causing Coronaviruses:
Serotype HUK1
Serotype NL63
Serotype OC43
Serotype 229E

The more serious Coronaviruses that more often result in respiratory issues compared to the prior:

SARS-COV-1
MERS
SARS-COV-2

I imagine we can make some solid progress towards treating symptoms at the very least though.
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Old 21 March 2020, 03:07 AM   #2998
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With your medical background I'd be curious to hear your thoughts if you think #5 is possible. From my knowledge, the below are the 7 Coronaviruses that infect humans. I'm not familiar with a reliable vaccine for any of these though, so very curious how we will develop one effective against SARS-COV-2. I'm not an epidemiologist though, so perhaps virus coding is different and more targetable with this compared to others. Though it doesn't seem much progress has been made with the 3 below that potentially cause acute respiratory syndrome. Perhaps there have not been enough cases prior though to justify full research of the ARS causing infections?

Common Cold Causing Coronaviruses:
Serotype HUK1
Serotype NL63
Serotype OC43
Serotype 229E

The more serious Coronaviruses that more often result in respiratory issues compared to the prior:

SARS-COV-1
MERS
SARS-COV-2

I imagine we can make some solid progress towards treating symptoms at the very least though.

Vaccine trials are already underway in the US, and will start in the UK next month. I take this to mean a vaccine has already been produced. I don’t think they would be investing time and resources, nor would they be publicizing it, if they didn’t think it had a good chance of success. It will still be a long time before it works its way through trials and comes to market, however.


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Old 21 March 2020, 03:14 AM   #2999
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I think London needs locking down, critical incident in one of the hospitals as they have run out of beds already


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If you’re talking about the report about Lewisham Hospital I have it from the mouth of one of the consultant physicians there that it’s fake news. Having said that it sounds like things could get very bad very quickly.

BoJo did though just announce that pubs and restaurants in London are being shut down.
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Old 21 March 2020, 03:24 AM   #3000
LandWatch
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Contrarian perspective. Carry on as normal, do nothing, let it pass through the population as quickly as possible. Short term disruption. But, back to normal as soon as possible. And, the economy keeps on rolling with only a minor hiccup.

What’s currently going on feels like death by a thousand cuts ...
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