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Old 20 May 2022, 06:00 PM   #121
Adam84
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Have you ever heard the word "Brexit"?
i mean, were still part of europe, just not the european union.
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Old 20 May 2022, 06:02 PM   #122
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Same in the UK. The media is telling us the economy is effectively crashing, but my eyes are telling me that it's roaring.

Traffic on roads is massive. Shop footfall is massive, trains packed.. etc.
Technically we are in recession because of the lack of growth, but i think this is mainly down to supply issues and high prices/ inflation.

I work in the construction industry and we are really busy at the moment, but supply chain issues and material costs are an utter nightmare!
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Old 20 May 2022, 06:07 PM   #123
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I find it really interesting how many seem to be triggered by this thread. If that describes you, do some self-reflection and ask yourself why.

I am very fortunate to have a reliable occupation with a great income (physician). The vast majority of my net worth is invested, and that number has taken a nosedive recently. Guess what? When my AD calls to tell me they have a 126715CHNR for me, I will be buying it, irrespective of what external economic factors are doing. Call it passion, call it stupidity, I think you could make an argument for either. To me, being able to buy a ‘luxury item’ means not having to worry about the rationality of the decision.
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Old 20 May 2022, 06:19 PM   #124
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I find it really interesting how many seem to be triggered by this thread. If that describes you, do some self-reflection and ask yourself why.

I am very fortunate to have a reliable occupation with a great income (physician). The vast majority of my net worth is invested, and that number has taken a nosedive recently. Guess what? When my AD calls to tell me they have a 126715CHNR for me, I will be buying it, irrespective of what external economic factors are doing. Call it passion, call it stupidity, I think you could make an argument for either. To me, being able to buy a ‘luxury item’ means not having to worry about the rationality of the decision.
As ever, polarising opinions cause debates and entrenchment.

At the end of the day, we are all individuals who are capable of making our own decisions. Some will feel more comfortable than others with whats going on at the moment whether that be your watch 'portfolio' or stock portfolio losing money.

Im with you though, i dont understand why everything has to end up in a heated argument these days....not just with watches but in sport, politics etc etc
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Old 20 May 2022, 07:51 PM   #125
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I feel like people are arguing here that the more passionate you are about a hobby the more you have to spend... or that somehow spend = passion.
This POV will make sense to some and sound ridiculous to others, me included. That's people for you. Some people colour coordinate, some people need others to tell them if a watch fits them, I could go on...

We all have at least one thing in common.

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But that is part of what makes this forum great. And it will aways be a great place if people who are passionate about watches can respectfully disagree.
^ what he said.
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Old 20 May 2022, 08:31 PM   #126
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When people FEEL less wealthy - they spend less. Simple.
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Old 20 May 2022, 08:32 PM   #127
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I'll preface this by saying there's no judgement on individual motivations here : just an observation.

I've been a part of various watch communities for a long time now - for example I've been moderating a dedicated Breitling forum for the past 15 years - and I have to say that Rolex is the only brand (at least in my experience) where considerations other than just the "passion" for a particular watch regularly come to the fore.

I can probably count on the fingers of one hand the number of times that investment, portfolios, and stock market performance has cropped up in relation to other brands I'm involved with, and yet with Rolex it's a daily (if not hourly!) thing. Of course, with most brands you automatically just accept that when you buy a watch it immediately loses a chunk of it's value, which obviously isn't the case with Rolex these days, and that fact alone attracts a certain type of person : Rolex attracts the highly cautious and financially risk-averse in a way that other brands don't.

As I say, no judgement as we're all different people just making our way through life - it's just an observation into the mindset of many modern Rolex buyers.
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Old 20 May 2022, 09:11 PM   #128
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I guess it's relative to where in America.

I was just in SFL. Couldn't see any appreciable impact from any economic issues.

Gas is the highest I have ever seen it: Roads were PACKED as always. Highways, surface streets....packed packed packed.

Went to a few upper end restaurants: Also packed. Some had no reservations available..on a weeknight..lol

Mall? Malls are supposed to be dead right? NOPE. PACKED with shoppers. Lines outside luxury stores.

Construction is still booming. Custom Homes, Tract Homes, Multi-family...no hesitation at all.

It's just different now. Bad economic "news" all over the place. Costs are certainly up up and away, but in some places, it doesn't seem to matter.


So...Buy the ROLEX....STONKS GO UP!


I live in FL too. The economy is booming here.

However, we need to pay attention to the basic fundamentals.

Some patients look like they’re in great shape, but they actually have a ticking time bomb in their chest. Upon doing an ECG or echo cardiogram, that’s when the problems become clear.

Walmart and Target just reported terrible quarterly earnings. Both companies are considered bellwethers (leading indicators) for the overall health of the economy. They both advised that the economic outlook is problematic. Many other companies are saying the same thing, but Walmart and Target are especially noteworthy.

Inflation is at a 40 year high. It was at a 40 year high before Russia invaded Ukraine, so when people try to blame Russia for it, they sound stupid. Only way to combat inflation is to dramatically raise interest rates. This will make housing much less affordable and hurt the construction industry long term. Fact is, the amount of new mortgages last month just took a huge nosedive.

The Stock Market is another leading indicator. It’s crashing. It’s a slow motion crash, but it’s crashing. This will wipe away trillions of dollars worth of wealth globally.

Also, many of the worlds leading economists are now saying a global recession is likely. All the banks are saying the same thing too.

So I wouldn’t make any economic forecasts based on what I see when driving or going shopping.


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Old 20 May 2022, 09:29 PM   #129
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Originally Posted by RollieNZ View Post
When people FEEL less wealthy - they spend less. Simple.
Correct, classic “wealth effect” at play.

And exactly one of the things the Fed is trying to engineer by raising interest rates - asset prices are falling, making people feel less wealthy and thus cooling off the demand.

Looks like it’s already working!
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Old 20 May 2022, 09:32 PM   #130
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The stock market made me hit the pause button

Quote:
Originally Posted by Driver8 View Post
I'll preface this by saying there's no judgement on individual motivations here : just an observation.

I've been a part of various watch communities for a long time now - for example I've been moderating a dedicated Breitling forum for the past 15 years - and I have to say that Rolex is the only brand (at least in my experience) where considerations other than just the "passion" for a particular watch regularly come to the fore.

I can probably count on the fingers of one hand the number of times that investment, portfolios, and stock market performance has cropped up in relation to other brands I'm involved with, and yet with Rolex it's a daily (if not hourly!) thing. Of course, with most brands you automatically just accept that when you buy a watch it immediately loses a chunk of it's value, which obviously isn't the case with Rolex these days, and that fact alone attracts a certain type of person : Rolex attracts the highly cautious and financially risk-averse in a way that other brands don't.

As I say, no judgement as we're all different people just making our way through life - it's just an observation into the mindset of many modern Rolex buyers.

That’s not what the OP and others are saying though. People are saying they don’t want buy a new watch because their net worth is tanking. I personally just lost a huge percentage of my wealth because of financial market declines.

Nobody said anything about the watch itself potentially losing value.

Understand?

Also, when the recession hits, all brands will be impacted (Rolex less so).


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Old 20 May 2022, 09:40 PM   #131
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Good time to reevaluate your portfolio...maybe diversify a little more?
I believe that ship has sailed....
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Old 20 May 2022, 10:07 PM   #132
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Originally Posted by hoot504 View Post
I find it really interesting how many seem to be triggered by this thread. If that describes you, do some self-reflection and ask yourself why.

I am very fortunate to have a reliable occupation with a great income (physician). The vast majority of my net worth is invested, and that number has taken a nosedive recently. Guess what? When my AD calls to tell me they have a 126715CHNR for me, I will be buying it, irrespective of what external economic factors are doing. Call it passion, call it stupidity, I think you could make an argument for either. To me, being able to buy a ‘luxury item’ means not having to worry about the rationality of the decision.
This above x100%

Most people who have got triggered are to be seen in in the stocks trade thread frequently and previously have boasted fancy vacations, cars and watches lets hope their lives are not so leveraged... Hobbies or luxury should be bought by spare cash or rather burn cash...
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Old 20 May 2022, 10:26 PM   #133
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Same in the UK. The media is telling us the economy is effectively crashing, but my eyes are telling me that it's roaring.

Traffic on roads is massive. Shop footfall is massive, trains packed.. etc.
lol sorry but this is a cray statement.

People still need to live and shop lol. Yes the roads are packed, but are those people travelling to work? See family, etc? Trains packed, 99% of the time Mon-Fri they are workers between rush hour. On the flip side I am a consultant so travel during the day to avoid rush hour and trains are empty, even weekends. Simple economics over the past x years shows that people's lives do not slow down, they continue with increasing levels of debt and borrowing.

This thread is a mess though, and is a barometer of why the forum gets e-laughed at by people on other forums/offline. If the OP want's to put a chill on his purchases let him. Maybe the "burn cash" people talk about is actually left over generated by his investments.

No one has the right to tell people how hobbies or luxuries should be funded, because not all hobbies or luxuries cost thousands of £/$ and could simply be buying a more luxurious food item or going to see your local sports team play.
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Old 20 May 2022, 10:26 PM   #134
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This above x100%

Most people who have got triggered are to be seen in in the stocks trade thread frequently and previously have boasted fancy vacations, cars and watches lets hope their lives are not so leveraged... Hobbies or luxury should be bought by spare cash or rather burn cash...
You're correct, it's "burn cash."

Euro vacation for the family easily costs 20k these days and that's on a "budget" of sorts. Just get there, look around for a week, come back. That money's burned, but we do have great memories.

What really burns are my wife's pets Dog breaks a bone? 3k. Pet dies? Easily 5k (diagnosis, care.... cremation) I've decided to shut up in order to preserve the marriage. To her it's all worth it and I'll leave it at that.

Anything wrong with the house? Those things start at 5k and then go up in multiples. And that's just maintenance usually.

I don't even own a boat but I can imagine they're a huge money pit. Probably 10k every time you look at it. Same thing with an airplane.

So in light of some other things where money can get burned, buying something like a watch for daily enjoyment is actually a great way to spend it. It makes me feel good, great in fact! Yes the market may be tanking but I've decided not to even look at it since I'm still 15-20 years from retirement. Who knows, maybe I'll never get to retire? Some things are out of my control. Worry too much about the future will ruin today. If the AD texts me I'll drop what I'm doing and go buy it
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Old 20 May 2022, 10:30 PM   #135
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That’s not what the OP and others are saying though. People are saying they don’t want buy a new watch because their net worth is tanking. I personally just lost a huge percentage of my wealth because of financial market declines.

Nobody said anything about the watch itself potentially losing value.

Understand?

Also, when the recession hits, all brands will be impacted (Rolex less so).


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Oh I understand perfectly well my friend. That's why I said it was just an observation. A related observation.

It was merely that I have rarely, if ever, come across threads talking about not buying a watch because of what the stock market is doing with any of the other brands I follow. It's a peculiarly Rolex thing, which quite understandably leads some to believe that many Rolex purchases are made with the head (and the portfolio analysis), rather than the heart.

Like I say, no judgement - just an observation.
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Old 20 May 2022, 10:55 PM   #136
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I live in FL too. The economy is booming here.

However, we need to pay attention to the basic fundamentals.

Some patients look like they’re in great shape, but they actually have a ticking time bomb in their chest. Upon doing an ECG or echo cardiogram, that’s when the problems become clear.

Walmart and Target just reported terrible quarterly earnings. Both companies are considered bellwethers (leading indicators) for the overall health of the economy. They both advised that the economic outlook is problematic. Many other companies are saying the same thing, but Walmart and Target are especially noteworthy.

Inflation is at a 40 year high. It was at a 40 year high before Russia invaded Ukraine, so when people try to blame Russia for it, they sound stupid. Only way to combat inflation is to dramatically raise interest rates. This will make housing much less affordable and hurt the construction industry long term. Fact is, the amount of new mortgages last month just took a huge nosedive.

The Stock Market is another leading indicator. It’s crashing. It’s a slow motion crash, but it’s crashing. This will wipe away trillions of dollars worth of wealth globally.

Also, many of the worlds leading economists are now saying a global recession is likely. All the banks are saying the same thing too.

So I wouldn’t make any economic forecasts based on what I see when driving or going shopping.


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I don't disagree with you about the fundamentals and impending recession...it just seems as people just aren't quite ready yet to participate in the downturn...except for watch collectors who are as afraid of their shadow as can possibly be!
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Old 20 May 2022, 11:03 PM   #137
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If you have to sell stocks to buy a watch its better to buy and enjoy a Seiko 5 which IMO is an amazing watch. I am again saying don't buy watches or multiples if its not your passion. It shouldn't really pinch your financials when getting any luxury item. Ofcourse basics come first. I still would say you really not into watches as a passion but recently many people have been collecting and hoarding watches for the wrong reasons. A normal person earlier could live a life with just one watch or max two watches and now the phone is enough for telling the time.
So you double down with a lecture?

You should read just the first page of responses to your original unthoughtful post. Most of them nail it.

87 octane gasoline is $5.15 a gallon in a state where it’s usually pretty reasonable that being Florida. That’s going to cause absolutely everything in the world to go up in cost hurting the middle class and the lower middle class. Yes I realize most people here are in the upper middle-class or the wealthy and won’t be affected that much but when the other parts of the economy suffer it causes all kinds of problems. America is in trouble right now. It’s sad. But look on the bright side. All those threads about Rolex prices dropping will get heated up even more as our economy falls into the pit.
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Old 20 May 2022, 11:10 PM   #138
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At the end of the day we are all buying status whether its a time piece at a certain LEVEL (for monetary or passion purposes) or saving to retire at a certain LEVEL. I have been a financial advisor for over a decade and I can tell you with certainty my happiest clients are those that can sleep better at night regardless of the status they are buying. So the question you have to ask yourself is what STATUS do I want to buy that will let me sleep at night. It's different for everyone.

Orrrrrr you can just the the heck with it and make like Cortez and burn the ships!!!
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Old 20 May 2022, 11:11 PM   #139
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Oh I understand perfectly well my friend. That's why I said it was just an observation. A related observation.

It was merely that I have rarely, if ever, come across threads talking about not buying a watch because of what the stock market is doing with any of the other brands I follow. It's a peculiarly Rolex thing, which quite understandably leads some to believe that many Rolex purchases are made with the head (and the portfolio analysis), rather than the heart.

Like I say, no judgement - just an observation.

It’s a matter of demographics. I’m on other watch forums too. People are definitely more budget conscious on other forums in general, no doubt.

On some of these watch forums, people talk about how a $700 Christopher Ward is a stretch for them. The stock market is irrelevant because they live pay check to pay check and don’t have an investment portfolio worth millions and millions of dollars

Fact is, there are a lot more ballers on this forum. Definitely a lot more people in the investment class, and the stock market frequently comes up in good times and bad times. It’s something many of us have in common.

Anyway, buying a watch with your head and not your heart is better anyway…


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Old 20 May 2022, 11:19 PM   #140
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I think the pundits who say we are already in recession are correct. One would assume the resultant declining wealth effect will negatively impact luxury spending on consumer goods and services. Rolex will be fine at retail and folks given the opportunity to buy will fill the retail demand. Crazy aftermarket prices should soften.
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Old 20 May 2022, 11:19 PM   #141
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I don't disagree with you about the fundamentals and impending recession...it just seems as people just aren't quite ready yet to participate in the downturn...except for watch collectors who are as afraid of their shadow as can possibly be!

Are you serious? Do you honestly think it’s just watch collectors? You need to get out more, travel around the country and talk to people.


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Old 20 May 2022, 11:19 PM   #142
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You're correct, it's "burn cash."

Euro vacation for the family easily costs 20k these days and that's on a "budget" of sorts. Just get there, look around for a week, come back. That money's burned, but we do have great memories.

What really burns are my wife's pets Dog breaks a bone? 3k. Pet dies? Easily 5k (diagnosis, care.... cremation) I've decided to shut up in order to preserve the marriage. To her it's all worth it and I'll leave it at that.

Anything wrong with the house? Those things start at 5k and then go up in multiples. And that's just maintenance usually.

I don't even own a boat but I can imagine they're a huge money pit. Probably 10k every time you look at it. Same thing with an airplane.

So in light of some other things where money can get burned, buying something like a watch for daily enjoyment is actually a great way to spend it. It makes me feel good, great in fact! Yes the market may be tanking but I've decided not to even look at it since I'm still 15-20 years from retirement. Who knows, maybe I'll never get to retire? Some things are out of my control. Worry too much about the future will ruin today. If the AD texts me I'll drop what I'm doing and go buy it
Brings the classic Boat Cliche to mind.
“Bust Out Another Thousand”
LoL.

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Old 20 May 2022, 11:55 PM   #143
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I have no investment in the stock market (other than a pension fund with a 20 years horizon), so I'm not directly affected by the current stock market dip. I will continue to buy the watches I want if available at ADs. I admit I might have felt differently had I been losing money, that wouldn't put me in the right frame of mind to splurge on luxury..
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Old 21 May 2022, 12:12 AM   #144
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At the end of the day we are all buying status whether its a time piece at a certain LEVEL (for monetary or passion purposes) or saving to retire at a certain LEVEL. I have been a financial advisor for over a decade and I can tell you with certainty my happiest clients are those that can sleep better at night regardless of the status they are buying. So the question you have to ask yourself is what STATUS do I want to buy that will let me sleep at night. It's different for everyone.

Orrrrrr you can just the the heck with it and make like Cortez and burn the ships!!!
I think I can speak for the vast majority of the people on this forum when I say to you, speak for yourself.

Good grief.
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Old 21 May 2022, 12:27 AM   #145
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It’s a matter of demographics. I’m on other watch forums too. People are definitely more budget conscious on other forums in general, no doubt.

On some of these watch forums, people talk about how a $700 Christopher Ward is a stretch for them. The stock market is irrelevant because they live pay check to pay check and don’t have an investment portfolio worth millions and millions of dollars

Fact is, there are a lot more ballers on this forum. Definitely a lot more people in the investment class, and the stock market frequently comes up in good times and bad times. It’s something many of us have in common.

Anyway, buying a watch with your head and not your heart is better anyway…
Yes I have a modest portfolio myself.... but as I said previously in this thread, for me, watches are just a nice little hobby that is entirely separate from my investment activity. Things would have to tank on an industrial scale to make me start worrying that my watch fund would be better spent elsewhere. And I freely admit I almost always buy watches with my heart over my head (within reason of course), because I'm of the opinion that things you like and are passionate about in life should transcend just the cold, hard, monetary aspects (again, within reason).

But anyway, we're all different, and I'm pretty sure no-one is ever 100% right, or 100% wrong about any of this stuff. It's all just opinions.
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Old 21 May 2022, 12:34 AM   #146
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Are you serious? Do you honestly think it’s just watch collectors? You need to get out more, travel around the country and talk to people.


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Huh

As for traveling around and talking to people about the economy?

Nah…I’m good.

But my advice back to you is to chill bro’

You can take it or leave it. I couldn’t care less.
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Old 21 May 2022, 12:38 AM   #147
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Huh

As for traveling around and talking to people about the economy?

Nah…I’m good.

But my advice back to you is to chill bro’

You can take it or leave it. I couldn’t care less.
I don’t drive around and talk to people about it but I have an active circle of friends and acquaintances and I’m getting an idea. Let me give you an example. My son‘s music teacher. When gas prices cause a lower middle class family‘s budget to increase by $200 a month there goes the music lessons. My son‘s music teacher is losing clients and as a result he himself is now hurting.
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Old 21 May 2022, 12:43 AM   #148
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I don’t drive around and talk to people about it but I have an active circle of friends and acquaintances and I’m getting an idea. Let me give you an example. My son‘s music teacher. When gas prices cause a lower middle class family‘s budget to increase by $200 a month there goes the music lessons. My son‘s music teacher is losing clients and as a result he himself is now hurting.
No doubt it’s affecting lots of people very negatively and that’s a shame.

Also lots of people with no personal impacts felt whatsoever…which is great. They simply won’t participate in a downturn…whether they have the means or go into debt up to their eyeballs, they aren’t going to stop spending because the news says it’s bad times. They don’t care. Not the wisest thing, but not everyone is Warren Buffet.

That could change in time….or not. Guess we will find out.
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Old 21 May 2022, 12:44 AM   #149
Njkdog
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Originally Posted by rajurama View Post
This above x100%

Most people who have got triggered are to be seen in in the stocks trade thread frequently and previously have boasted fancy vacations, cars and watches lets hope their lives are not so leveraged... Hobbies or luxury should be bought by spare cash or rather burn cash...
stop making random assumptions about people and stating them as fact. you know what happens when you assume??? well you're that right now...
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Old 21 May 2022, 02:00 AM   #150
Krash
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Originally Posted by Fleetlord View Post
Huh

As for traveling around and talking to people about the economy?

Nah…I’m good.

But my advice back to you is to chill bro’

You can take it or leave it. I couldn’t care less.

I couldn’t care less either.

But it is pretty ignorant to say only watch collectors are concerned about the current economic situation.

When someone posts something that outrageous, you should expect to be called out.


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