Is it getting easier at ADs for SS sports?

[Santiago32]

Asked my AD what they have… a few lady DJ and Smaller OPs. With all this correction talk it doesn’t seem like much has changed at the ADs. Either that or I need a new AD

[ArtNouveau]

As noted on another recent thread, I visited my high volume dealer a week ago and pretty much everything they receive is presold, no slowdown for them.

[vika01]

No it isn’t. Just grey prices getting lower because of crash hype.

[JParm]

No changes here in Monterey. My AD says demand is still at an all-time high with no signs of slowing down.

[underpar]

It's not going to happen overnight but it's going to happen.

[smallcollector]

of course - still a spread between grey and AD

[MYK]

3 ads in the last couple of weeks, all empty.

[watchmework]

I haven’t seen any slow down at the ADs I’ve visited.

[Daytonaman799]

Give it time….it’s coming

[blargle]

the illusion of insatiable demand is the only thing keeping this bubble going, when it pops, the outcome will be truly staggering

[Mystro]

No. IF you see a lonely TT DJ41 in the display case for sale then you know there is a tangible minute change starting.

[amh]

Still on the waitlist for the waitlist behind the VVIPs and VIPs

[macrowatch]

Originally Posted by Mystro

No. IF you see a lonely TT DJ41 in the display case for sale then you know there is a tangible minute change starting.

I do think though in Europe / US you are starting to see more on hand stock but they have maintained the illusion of empty but there have even been some DJ41 on hand in the back.

[fixinbones]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

No changes here in Monterey. My AD says demand is still at an all-time high with no signs of slowing down.

Agree, any SS or PM ROLEX at MSRP is now and will be considered a great deal.

[Golfbone]

It is not getting easier to get Rolex from the Ad....in fact....based on what I've seen I think if anything it's getting harder. People who are posting ...."just wait...it's coming" are basing their opinions on their personal wishes /desires. There is no indication that a crash is coming. The market is down and Rolex is down. This is a correction....not a crash.

[Jpccarguy]

Originally Posted by amh

Still on the waitlist for the waitlist behind the VVIPs and VIPs

[Mystro]

Originally Posted by macrowatch

I do think though in Europe / US you are starting to see more on hand stock but they have maintained the illusion of empty but there have even been some DJ41 on hand in the back.

Then nothing will change even from a AD or buyers perspective if the AD won’t eventually display lower demand models. If that’s is in fact the case long term, AD’s will forever use even lower demand models as a carrot to sell their undesirable jewelry and the illusion is in fact a reality to the Rolex buyer. That has always been the fear that there is no insensitive for anything to change now that this technique has proven as a sales tool for the AD.
Rolex sells every model they make and AD’s sell every model they want to sell to move other merchandise. There is nothing that needs to change from the controlling parties of the product.

[WantBlue15202]

They’re still peddling things out slowly. It keeps the illusion alive, if you walked into an AD and they have 10 watches in the case (let’s exclude Daytona, Kermit, GMT hype models) - you’d be very likely to think “I actually get to think about a huge purchase before I make it” or “maybe they get something I like more next week”..

If they say “I’ve got something back here for you” and send you weird/creepy text messages - you feel the pressure is on, you’ve gotta make a split second decision and you won’t get a second chance. My AD moved to doing this nonsense with Tudors too. It’s a joke - Jomashop has every Tudor model at a discount..

[RanHong]

No it wouldnt be just yet. If the down turn continues, i think we will first start to see more 2 tone DJs on shelves, followed by more and more popular models, the last ones are probably the steel daytonas.

[Beto737]

Nothing’s changed at my AD. I still can’t get most of what I want…

[JRell]

Yes

[inadeje]

The laws of economics tell us that the ADs will be the VERY LAST in the chain to feel the recession in the watch market. Why? Well, almost every watch is still x2 retail, even though the 3x retail at greys is dropping to 2x, and the 2x to 1.5x. Those that can get pieces from ADs can still make incredible profit. So scarcity of popular models at ADs will not change for a very long time. When you see say a sub at greys for 1k over retail, that’s when the ADs will start having watches, since the speculators won’t immobilize their money or waste time for such a paltry return.

[omar10213245]

Originally Posted by WantBlue15202

They’re still peddling things out slowly. It keeps the illusion alive, if you walked into an AD and they have 10 watches in the case (let’s exclude Daytona, Kermit, GMT hype models) - you’d be very likely to think “I actually get to think about a huge purchase before I make it” or “maybe they get something I like more next week”..

If they say “I’ve got something back here for you” and send you weird/creepy text messages - you feel the pressure is on, you’ve gotta make a split second decision and you won’t get a second chance. My AD moved to doing this nonsense with Tudors too. It’s a joke - Jomashop has every Tudor model at a discount..

^this is 100% spot-on

[inadeje]

Originally Posted by WantBlue15202

They’re still peddling things out slowly. It keeps the illusion alive, if you walked into an AD and they have 10 watches in the case (let’s exclude Daytona, Kermit, GMT hype models) - you’d be very likely to think “I actually get to think about a huge purchase before I make it” or “maybe they get something I like more next week”..

If they say “I’ve got something back here for you” and send you weird/creepy text messages - you feel the pressure is on, you’ve gotta make a split second decision and you won’t get a second chance. My AD moved to doing this nonsense with Tudors too. It’s a joke - Jomashop has every Tudor model at a discount..

Jomashop - yes, most tudors but not all. My bb58 bronze is 500$ more than retail. But I agree that most others are 5-20% below retail. Same with other brands (besides Rolex). I just bought a beater for summer, a mont blanc chrono 41mm with ceramic bezel. 3900 retail, unworn 2500-3000 on C24 yet 1500 on jomashop…

[Turbo Racer]

Originally Posted by inadeje

The laws of economics tell us that the ADs will be the VERY LAST in the chain to feel the recession in the watch market. Why? Well, almost every watch is still x2 retail, even though the 3x retail at greys is dropping to 2x, and the 2x to 1.5x. Those that can get pieces from ADs can still make incredible profit. So scarcity of popular models at ADs will not change for a very long time. When you see say a sub at greys for 1k over retail, that’s when the ADs will start having watches, since the speculators won’t immobilize their money or waste time for such a paltry return.

I agree with this. I do see ad as the last place to feel the correction. Watching for sale ads and seeing for the first time things I think are actually good deals. And then I go, “yeah, it’s still double msrp.” Ugh.

[taitun4life]

Originally Posted by inadeje

the laws of economics tell us that the ads will be the very last in the chain to feel the recession in the watch market. Why? Well, almost every watch is still x2 retail, even though the 3x retail at greys is dropping to 2x, and the 2x to 1.5x. Those that can get pieces from ads can still make incredible profit. So scarcity of popular models at ads will not change for a very long time. When you see say a sub at greys for 1k over retail, that’s when the ads will start having watches, since the speculators won’t immobilize their money or waste time for such a paltry return.

💯

[LA_LEC]

Originally Posted by blargle

the illusion of insatiable demand is the only thing keeping this bubble going, when it pops, the outcome will be truly staggering

Or will it...

[Nairn1980]

Originally Posted by Daytonaman799

Give it time….it’s coming

Do you really believe that?
I don’t. I think some datejusts might reach windows, but not much more.

People dreaming of steel subs and GMT’s in AD windows (for sale) will have to keep dreaming, in my humble opinion

[johnwigan]

When the flippers flip off you will be left with people who just want to buy an £8k watch to wear. I don't think you can underestimate how many flippers there are. Everyman and his dog became a flipper. It was easy money. When the flippers and the 'investors' see they can also lose money they will disappear.

ADs will resist this of course because recent years have been the best ever for them. Bundling, no discounts etc etc. And record profits. Amazing that people think their AD is their friend and that they believe everything they say as the gospel truth. But not surprising, alas. They are selling and you are the customer. That is the extent of your relationship. ADs will try to maintain the 'shortage illusion' and 'you are special' because I sold you a watch for as long as possible, but the market will prevail.

We are only at the beginning of the process of returning to normal business. Grey prices have a lot further to fall yet. Watches that were not available are not going to suddenly become available overnight, like a tap turning on. Rather, gradually availability will improve. Remember there will be a backlog of demand from people who actually want to buy a watch to wear, who have not been able buy in recent years. But eventually we will return to normal. I expect what remains of the waiting lists, after the flippers decline watches, will be fulfilled before display cases start being filled up again. More people 'getting the call' will be the first sign. ADs will want to drag out the 'shortages' but Rolex will keep churning out those watches every year which need to find paying customers.

[johnwigan]

When grey dealers stop buying that indicates where they really think we are heading. Not their YouTube videos telling us this is a buying opportunity or 'buy the dip'. The whole thing has been based on 'hurry buy now before you miss out and prices go up again'. And 'you can't lose money on a Rolex'. People thinking they are going to retire on their watches, whose value will only go up and up. Reckless crazy bubble behaviour.