the Coronavirus outbreak thread

[Runnin' Rebel]

AA pilots filed law suit yesterday refusing to fly to China. Effective today all flights canceled to Chinese mainland until late March

AA was going to stop February 9 but then the lawsuit was filed

[Ichiran]

Originally Posted by Zakalwe

I’m happy to debate you in good faith but I’m out of here if you’re going to deliberately misconstrue my words. ‘Flu kills 600,000 people per year yet for most people it is mild and self limiting. I’ve had it at least twice and I was fine. Despite the hysteria, coronavirus is likely similar for most. Not all, obviously.

I noted you have highlighted the 600,000 annual deaths from flu, which was an estimated made in a Lancet report and was also referenced by WHO. I have no issue with that.

Yesterday, the same WHO has announced the 2019 coronavirus as a global health emergency. WHO defines a global health emergency as an "extraordinary event" that is "serious, unusual or unexpected".

Now, I'm pretty sure the team of medical professors, scientists, microbiologists, virologists and doctors in WHO and in China know exactly what is a seasonal flu or influenza, and I'm sure they have the competency to understand what are the differences between a seasonal flu and the 2019 coronavirus. I'm also pretty sure there were mortalities arising from seasonal flu in China, and they must have seen and experienced it year after year.

From my very layman perspective, this 2019 coronavirus seems to have a higher infection rate, pneumonia and mortality rate in the community, and it kills the middle-aged adults more so than the common cold.

And we are just in the beginning stage of this outbreak which as you said, could become more serious as it progresses. It's extremely early days to call this 2019 coronavirus no worse than a "normal flu".

By the way, I also have had cold at least twice, but I won't use that in a debate on a mystery virus.

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by Ichiran

I noted you have highlighted the 600,000 annual deaths from flu, which was an estimated made in a Lancet report and was also referenced by WHO. I have no issue with that.

Yesterday, the same WHO has announced the 2019 coronavirus as a global health emergency. WHO defines a global health emergency as an "extraordinary event" that is "serious, unusual or unexpected".

Now, I'm pretty sure the team of medical professors, scientists, microbiologists, virologists and doctors in WHO and in China know exactly what is a seasonal flu or influenza, and I'm sure they have the competency to understand what are the differences between a seasonal flu and the 2019 coronavirus. I'm also pretty sure there were mortalities arising from seasonal flu in China, and they must have seen and experienced it year after year.

From my very layman perspective, this 2019 coronavirus seems to have a higher infection rate, pneumonia and mortality rate in the community, and it kills the middle-aged adults more so than the common cold.

And we are just in the beginning stage of this outbreak which as you said, could become more serious as it progresses. It's extremely early days to call this 2019 coronavirus no worse than a "normal flu".

By the way, I also have had cold at least twice, but I won't use that in a debate on a mystery virus.

Stay safe buddy. It’s also in NYC now I think. The India case worries me because I don’t think they can mobilize as quick as the central govt in China can.

[Ichiran]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

Stay safe buddy. It’s also in NYC now I think. The India case worries me because I don’t think they can mobilize as quick as the central govt in China can.

You stay safe too bro, and keep your family safe.
It's popping up and spreading to new places. With the incubation period of up to 14 days, and doctors opining that the virus can spread without symptoms, it is certainly a concern.

[hideki4]

Ok but seriously. How will the coronavirus impact Patek values?

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by hideki4

Ok but seriously. How will the coronavirus impact Patek values?

Chinese recession, its a big hit to GDP... yuan devaluation which has happened already... people can’t go to work. Etc etc.

[Boothroyd]

People seem very sanguine about this not impacting the US. There are already cases here, with transmission between people.

A new virius that can be transmitted between humans, for which we have no natural immunity, while also mutate over time. The side effects of that mutation could be catastrophic.

SARS didn't take the world down, and coronavirus likely won't either. But read up on the "Spanish" flu outbreak of 1918. Sooner or later, it will happen again.

[Arcticsub]

Originally Posted by Boothroyd

People seem very sanguine about this not impacting the US. There are already cases here, with transmission between people.

A new virius that can be transmitted between humans, for which we have no natural immunity, while also mutate over time. The side effects of that mutation could be catastrophic.

SARS didn't take the world down, and coronavirus likely won't either. But read up on the "Spanish" flu outbreak of 1918. Sooner or later, it will happen again.

Currently, the Wuhan virus has a mortality rate of 3%. The Spanish flu had the same rate.

The Spanish flu killed 50-100 million people.

Lot of posts in this topic saying that we don't know the potential impact of this new virus. They're right. However, it's impact has already been enormous. A large chunk of China is in lockdown. The other parts are slowly grinding to a standstill.

I think the world economy is in big trouble. I hope I'm wrong, but the ncov2019 looks to be incredibly virulent.

[pickettt]

Originally Posted by Arcticsub

Currently, the Wuhan virus has a mortality rate of 3%. The Spanish flu had the same rate.

The Spanish flu killed 50-100 million people.

3% is either 50 million or 100 million, it can't be both. With that kind of deviation it's hard to conclude that it has the same mortality rate.

[bayerische]

Originally Posted by pickettt

3% is either 50 million or 100 million, it can't be both. With that kind of deviation it's hard to conclude that it has the same mortality rate.

Good one.

[Burnettwatches]

Originally Posted by Knappo 1307

Am I the only one not worried??

you're not alone bud

[Arcticsub]

Originally Posted by Arcticsub

Currently, the Wuhan virus has a mortality rate of 3%. The Spanish flu had the same rate.

The Spanish flu killed 50-100 million people.

Lot of posts in this topic saying that we don't know the potential impact of this new virus. They're right. However, it's impact has already been enormous. A large chunk of China is in lockdown. The other parts are slowly grinding to a standstill.

I think the world economy is in big trouble. I hope I'm wrong, but the ncov2019 looks to be incredibly virulent.

Should have added that the 1918 Spanish flu had a 10% fatality rate (not 3% as I initially erroneously posted).

[Boothroyd]

The additional tragedy to the Spanish flu is that it kicked one's immune system into overdrive. The young and healthy had the most robust immune systems. It disproportionately killed younger people as a result.

[3 Putt]

People will be indifferent and casual about this virus until it hits their backyard. Forget the mortality rate..catching this virus is painful with a long recovery. Not to mention, if you get it, chances are you will infect your family and watch them suffer through it too. Its a big pain in the ass for many reasons including economic and lifestyle.

I've seen it up close and it is causing much chaos in China...which will translate to the world economy. Vegatable prices have almost tripled in the area I live due to price gouging and reduced supply chains. The Chinese gov. has ordered companies to remain closed until Feb. 10 to keep people isolated longer. Yesterday, our provincial government ordered that unless all employees wear approved masks, a business cannot open on Feb. 10th.

There is a shortage of masks in China. China has imported more than 56 million masks and now asking the EU for help getting supplies. I need 80,000 masks to operate for 60 days. We have a 5 day supply. The magnitude of the hit to the economy will depend on how long this virus spreads without confidence in its management. It affect everybody in more ways than a potential mortality rate.

[A971]

Hong Kong just closed schools for a month.

It’s getting real...


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[Fat_ninja]

Cases spiked over passed day. 14,628 cases
Deaths 305


SARS was in the 700’s

[Ichiran]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

Cases spiked over passed day. 14,628 cases
Deaths 305

SARS was in the 700’s

Wuhan was locked down on 23 Jan, and since the incubation period is 2 weeks, the first important date is 7 Feb. In theory, the infections should drop substantially after 7 Feb. 5 more days - finger crossed.

Due to the lack of infection control segregation rooms, I understand a lot of suspected people are quarantined at home. Due to potential infection of family members at home, the 2nd wave will be another 2 weeks after 6 Feb, ie 21 Feb. After that the numbers should really come down.

If there is a 3rd wave, then God Help us all.

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by Ichiran

Wuhan was locked down on 23 Jan, and since the incubation period is 2 weeks, the first important date is 7 Feb. In theory, the infections should drop substantially after 7 Feb. 5 more days - finger crossed.

Due to the lack of hospital beds, I understand a lot of suspected people are quarantined at home. The 2nd wave will be another 2 weeks after 6 Feb, ie 21 Feb. After that the numbers should really come down.

If there is a 3rd wave, then God Bless us all.

It’s in NYC and Boston as well

[Ichiran]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

It’s in NYC and Boston as well

A recent study has indicated the R-nought as 4.08, and I read the latest case in NY is a 20+ youngish individual?

Stay safe bro.

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by Ichiran

A recent study has indicated the R-nought as 4.08, and I read the latest case in NY is a 20+ youngish individual?

Stay safe bro.

I haven’t had a chance to read up on it...yet but yeah getting real. I wanted to get masks but my team didn’t think we needed it. Now it’s back ordered. Told the wife to get me some

[gtnator]

Just don’t touch your face, you’ll be fine.


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[Spartacus]

Originally Posted by Zakalwe

I’m happy to debate you in good faith but I’m out of here if you’re going to deliberately misconstrue my words. ‘Flu kills 600,000 people per year yet for most people it is mild and self limiting. I’ve had it at least twice and I was fine. Despite the hysteria, coronavirus is likely similar for most. Not all, obviously.

It’s rather disheartening that you see this as a “debate” when the members you are “debating” are dealing with the impacts of the virus. While you likely are casually looking for a reason to be right.

“Just like the flu” ...great, now I guess we can all go get the shot at the local health center....oh wait.

For the members here directly or indirectly affected, I am thinking of you and hope things are resolved soon. I can not imagine being quarantined at home for weeks, and my my city, my country, being shutdown.

[RW16610]

Originally Posted by A971

Hong Kong just closed schools for a month.

It’s getting real...


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Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

Cases spiked over passed day. 14,628 cases
Deaths 305


SARS was in the 700’s

Oh man, all of this is terrible. I can't imagine what it would be like to be there right now. No idea how people are to get food or other essential items as needed.

[gtnator]

Originally Posted by 3 Putt

People will be indifferent and casual about this virus until it hits their backyard. Forget the mortality rate..catching this virus is painful with a long recovery. Not to mention, if you get it, chances are you will infect your family and watch them suffer through it too. Its a big pain in the ass for many reasons including economic and lifestyle.



I've seen it up close and it is causing much chaos in China...which will translate to the world economy. Vegatable prices have almost tripled in the area I live due to price gouging and reduced supply chains. The Chinese gov. has ordered companies to remain closed until Feb. 10 to keep people isolated longer. Yesterday, our provincial government ordered that unless all employees wear approved masks, a business cannot open on Feb. 10th.



There is a shortage of masks in China. China has imported more than 56 million masks and now asking the EU for help getting supplies. I need 80,000 masks to operate for 60 days. We have a 5 day supply. The magnitude of the hit to the economy will depend on how long this virus spreads without confidence in its management. It affect everybody in more ways than a potential mortality rate.

That sucks man. I didn’t realize it was that bad. If one gets the virus, what is the typical duration till recovery, assuming a normal/strong immune system? And can you get reinfected??


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[utc66]

My wife thought I was silly to buy one month of food (canned and dried) last weekend. If it gets to the point we are asked to shelter in place at least we won’t be one of thousands scrambling to empty shelves at the last minute. Can’t hurt to be a little prepared.

[Point break]

Originally Posted by utc66

My wife thought I was silly to buy one month of food (canned and dried) last weekend. If it gets to the point we are asked to shelter in place at least we won’t be one of thousands scrambling to empty shelves at the last minute. Can’t hurt to be a little prepared.

If this situation gets any worse I would be doing the same thing. I get panic attacks when ever something like this occurs

[utc66]

Originally Posted by Point break

If this situation gets any worse I would be doing the same thing. I get panic attacks when ever something like this occurs

And to me that’s the point, to not get anxiety, but to calmly be prepared - at least to some extent.

[77T]

I don’t think this is a thing to spark arguments. I respect those professionals who are facing the onslaught of cases either on frontlines or in the vicinity.

We are at the start of an odyssey which will exact its full measure of misery for the afflicted, their loved ones and those who are affected by it.

Wuhan is in the crosshairs plus other adjacent provinces with HK & SG at risk. EMEA has reasons for concern and the Americas too.



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[Doc Savage]

This is crazy. I hope the lockdown in Wuhan does the trick.

[Laszlo]

Originally Posted by gtnator

Just don’t touch your face, you’ll be fine.


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Or sit on a toilet. Now that they know it can spread via digestive track. Just lovely.