the Coronavirus outbreak thread

[gnuyork]

Originally Posted by Patton250

And with that I think I end my participation in this thread. see ya.

No offense, Brett, but this is like the 3rd time you have announced leaving this thread. If you can't take opposing opinions and/or facts, then that's your choice. I don't know who is right, but I sure don't have confidence that things are being handled properly at the top.

[Laszlo]

Originally Posted by Patton250

I just now on live news heard the Health and Human Services Secretary day we have 2 million tests for those who need one. I guess he is lying?

I just think we are very ill prepared. We’ve test ~4500 while South Korea has already tested 150,000. It’s embarrassing as the most equipped nation on the planet could be so unprepared for a situation like this. Regardless of the numbers the system will just not be able to handle this. And because of our position this will cascade into other forms of disruption. You also mentioned you’re seeing two narratives and I pointed this out a while back. Personally the best form of information is those from positions like physicians on the front line and epidemiologists providing their insights. As well as organizations such as WHO who are fact based. I wouldn’t believe anything from the CCP but would definitely lean on Italy because that’s a real-time situation that can be a proxy. Another interesting thing to ponder is that there are 2 strains.

[beshannon]

Take this seriously. Coronavirus is about to change your life for a while

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/11/polit...ife/index.html

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by Laszlo

I just think we are very ill prepared. We’ve test ~4500 while South Korea has already tested 150,000. It’s embarrassing as the most equipped nation on the planet could be so unprepared for a situation like this. Regardless of the numbers the system will just not be able to handle this. And because of our position this will cascade into other forms of disruption. You also mentioned you’re seeing two narratives and I pointed this out a while back. Personally the best form of information is those from positions like physicians on the front line and epidemiologists providing their insights. As well as organizations such as WHO who are fact based. I wouldn’t believe anything from the CCP but would definitely lean on Italy because that’s a real-time situation that can be a proxy. Another interesting thing to ponder is that there are 2 strains.

The Dangerous Delays in U.S. Coronavirus Testing Haven’t Stopped

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/a...umbers/607714/

After surveying local data from across the country, we can only verify that 4,384 people have been tested for the coronavirus nationwide, as of Monday at 4 p.m. eastern time. These data are as comprehensive a compilation of official statistics as currently possible.

[uscmatt99]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

More front line, experienced, accounts of the virus from Italy:

https://www.yahoo.com/huffpost/italy...040542022.html

The other jibber jabber is just noise from “experts” who have never even seen a single Coronavirus patient in person.

Yep we are bracing for an Italy-style wave of sick patients over here, it's only a matter of time. It's very frustrating as a provider having to work in the dark. Let alone the mass rescheduling of any visits or procedures/surgeries that aren't urgent or emergent.

[Laszlo]

From Dr. Fauci:

Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, issued a disturbing warning during a White House briefing Tuesday: Americans everywhere need to change the way they live their lives. Right now.

"We would like the country to realize that as a nation, we can't be doing the kinds of things we were doing a few months ago. It doesn't matter if you're in a state that has no cases or one case," Fauci said, referring Americans to the new federal Coronavirus.gov website for details on precautions to take at home, at work and out in the world.

"If and when the infections will come -- and they will come, sorry to say, sad to say -- when you're dealing with an infectious disease... we want to be where the infection is going to be, as well as where it is," Fauci said.

"If and when the infections will come -- and they will come, sorry to say, sad to say -- when you're dealing with an infectious disease... we want to be where the infection is going to be, as well as where it is," Fauci said.

"Everybody should say, 'All hands on deck,'" he added.

[Laszlo]

Originally Posted by beshannon

The Dangerous Delays in U.S. Coronavirus Testing Haven’t Stopped

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/a...umbers/607714/

It’s pretty disappointing and it’s going to force actions from FEMA and National Guard because these basic measures were never in place.

[Kowaco]

Originally Posted by greggsiam

The US is blowing it at every point of prevention and testing. It's an absolute joke.

My boss returned to the US from Thailand last week. Upon entering LAX there was ZERO testing of any passengers, especially from Asia (not that country of departure matters anyway). He had a slight fever and decided to go to the hospital to get checked out. All the hospitals he called or went to flat out refused to check him. The only option he was given was to call the CDC, which he remained on hold for 2 hours.

To put it into perspective. I live in Thailand and every passenger is tested for a fever and symptoms no matter country of origin. Even domestic flights are checked. Every single person. This is from a third world country run by an incompetent and corrupt junta.

At my work, I document every worker that leaves the country, and their return path. Any symptoms, they get a 2 week quarantine.

If you want a massive virus spread, just keep doing what the US is doing, which is nothing.

Every country has a different situation, Korea is a homogenous society so they do things differently. I worked over there a long time. The US will do fine and handle it well. There’s still too much hype with corona right now and the panic is really the problem.


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[uscmatt99]

Originally Posted by Kowaco

Every country has a different situation, Korea is a homogenous society so they do things differently. I worked over there a long time. The US will do fine and handle it well. There’s still too much hype with corona right now and the panic is really the problem.


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Unfortunately the US approach is the ostrich technique and not handling this well at all at the federal level. We don't even know the extent of what we are dealing with here. All policy seems to be based on numbers of currently diagnosed individuals, which we know is GROSSLY underestimating the true numbers of people walking around with this virus. States and municipalities are being left to figure it out on their own.

[Laszlo]

We’re doing awesome and contact tracing has been done so well that a coronavirus virus contact shook hands with our president, rode on Air-force One, and rode in the motorcade compromising our deepest national security protocols. We’ll be just fine. Don’t worry, it’s just hype. Italy is hype and media embellishments.

[Laszlo]

Originally Posted by uscmatt99

Unfortunately the US approach is the ostrich technique and not handling this well at all at the federal level. We don't even know the extent of what we are dealing with here. All policy seems to be based on numbers of currently diagnosed individuals, which we know is GROSSLY underestimating the true numbers of people walking around with this virus. States and municipalities are being left to figure it out on their own.

Yup. Ten more nursing homes in Washington State have cases. Can you imagine!? Those poor people. This is literally just the very, very beginning. We haven’t even scratched the surface.

[Duey]

Here's a good one for you from the totally waked out state of California.

California's Sacramento County is calling off automatic 14-day quarantines that have been implemented for the coronavirus. "With the shift from containment to mitigation, it is no longer necessary for someone who has been in contact with someone with COVID-19 to quarantine for 14 days," the county says.
Effective immediately, people in Sacramento County should not quarantine themselves if they've been exposed to the COVID-19. Instead, they should go into isolation only if they begin to show symptoms of the respiratory virus, the county's health department says.

Got to Love this beautiful state

[Kowaco]

Conclusion. CDC estimates that influenza was associated with more than 35.5 million illnesses, more than 16.5 million medical visits, 490,600 hospitalizations, and 34,200 deaths during the 2018–2019 influenza season

Interesting


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[904VT]

Originally Posted by greggsiam

That's just not possible. It's misguided if you think banning X Y Z country is going to do anything. "Leaving the disease in the country where it started" is and was never going to happen no matter what actions are taken.

The virus is not even that bad to warrant such an extreme measure.

Originally Posted by greggsiam

The US is blowing it at every point of prevention and testing. It's an absolute joke.

My boss returned to the US from Thailand last week. Upon entering LAX there was ZERO testing of any passengers, especially from Asia (not that country of departure matters anyway). He had a slight fever and decided to go to the hospital to get checked out. All the hospitals he called or went to flat out refused to check him. The only option he was given was to call the CDC, which he remained on hold for 2 hours.

To put it into perspective. I live in Thailand and every passenger is tested for a fever and symptoms no matter country of origin. Even domestic flights are checked. Every single person. This is from a third world country run by an incompetent and corrupt junta.

At my work, I document every worker that leaves the country, and their return path. Any symptoms, they get a 2 week quarantine.

If you want a massive virus spread, just keep doing what the US is doing, which is nothing.

1. Thailand was the first country outside China to report a case of COVID-19 and with a population of about 70 million is the size of approximately 1/5 the population of the US. Total cases of COVID-19 in Thailand are roughly 50. Sounds small until you consider that it is very hot and humid in Thailand relatively speaking. What's the weather today in Bangkok? The US has a much greater variety of weather climates. For example the Maritime climate of the Pacific NW to the dry SW.

2. It has been proven that UV light can kill the virus. It is also proven that heat and especially humidity causes virus particulates to become heavier and to more quickly fall to the ground. Thus causing SARS-COV-2 to be suspended in air far shorter as an aerosol based virus that it is.

3. The rate of international travel and trade is much greater in the US than in Thailand.

4. The US has the greatest number of international exchange students at University than any other country. Think super spreaders with no symptoms. We have over a million exchange students in the US btw and they pay the same tuition rates as out of state students. What's wrong with that picture, well many of those institutions are taking Federal funding meaning that all US taxpayers are contributing to this supplemental funding and reduction in tuition for exchange students.

5. So which is it that it isn't bad enough to warrant travel restrictions or it is bad enough? Because as I outlined above these aren't remotely similar situations in US and Thailand and without stopping exchange students from outside the US there really is no way to contain.

And as far as being not being that bad are you familiar with both strain types L and S of SARS-COV-2 and ability to test for both strains and mutations? Also, many false negatives in tests for younger adults. If we are going to be strict then your quarantine you are conducting as well needs to be greater than 14 days. Minimum 21 days, and to be very safe 40 days. I find it highly suspect that your work colleague lives in the US but wouldn't know that they could report this to their local health department. And Los Angeles of all places, they were some of the first in the US to put in measures and reporting. Was your colleague screened on his way out of Thailand before boarding the flight? If we want to be comprehensive he should've been.

We do much better working together on solutions instead of finger pointing imo. I agree though EVERYONE needs to be doing a better job

[Laszlo]

Very useful data but it is hindsight data. If perhaps coronavirus modeling is correct, if 40- to-70% over the next 12- to 18-months worldwide become infected, and we use WHO’s global deathrate of 3.4%, where exactly does that put the numbers in comparison to the seasonal flu? Then segment out the other layer of 25% hospitalizations, where does that put the support system? When coronavirus has hindsight data, only then can we compare it to the seasonal flu. Does anyone here want to do the math? Then reduce it by 50%?

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by Laszlo

It’s pretty disappointing and it’s going to force actions from FEMA and National Guard because these basic measures were never in place.

Agreed

[Moggo]

It’s getting out of control pretty quick. Too many thinking they are bullet proof unfortunately.

We’ve been too slow to react in the UK also, I fear it’s probably running riot here and the number will go up fast. Even our Health Minster has it and is in self isolation.

We have a huge rugby game going ahead in my city on Saturday, probably 125,000 people coming to the city, recipe for disaster but money talks.


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[seslwr]

Originally Posted by Laszlo

Very useful data but it is hindsight data. If perhaps coronavirus modeling is correct, if 40- to-70% over the next 12- to 18-months worldwide become infected, and we use WHO’s global deathrate of 3.4%, where exactly does that put the numbers in comparison to the seasonal flu? Then segment out the other layer of 25% hospitalizations, where does that put the support system? When coronavirus has hindsight data, only then can we compare it to the seasonal flu. Does anyone here want to do the math? Then reduce it by 50%?

Was listening to a Joe Rogan podcast. His guest was Michael Olsterholm, who is an infectious disease researcher with the University of Minnesota. This guy knows his stuff. His forecast in the U.S. is 90 million infections, 48 million hospitalizations, and 480,000 fatalities.

[gmh1013]

28:06:42:12

[Zakalwe]

Originally Posted by seslwr

Was listening to a Joe Rogan podcast. His guest was Michael Olsterholm, who is an infectious disease researcher with the University of Minnesota. This guy knows his stuff. His forecast in the U.S. is 90 million infections, 48 million hospitalizations, and 480,000 fatalities.

So basically he's predicting Armageddon? Since - and I'm taking a figure from Paul 77T earlier upthread as Gospel - you only have 700k hospital beds in the entire country, it won't actually be possible to admit even a small fraction of that number of people to hospital.

[904VT]

Originally Posted by Zakalwe

So basically he's predicting Armageddon? Since - and I'm taking a figure from Paul 77T earlier upthread as Gospel - you only have 700k hospital beds in the entire country, it won't actually be possible to admit even a small fraction of that number of people to hospital.

I think this is the issue that Italy is dealing with now. And hopefully medical workers stay healthy, so that staffing stays full. The cumulative effect of care of COVID-19 may pressure the rest of the system, causing less care for everyday flu, cold, injuries. SARS-COV-2 from my understanding even pneumonia may be represented as a mild symptom. Severe cases require ventilators. So "mild' cases have the potential to be nothing like what would be deemed a mild cold or even flu.

[superdog]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/coronavir...190303174.html

I very much realize I am likely one of the only hold outs here. But I still think this is being over blown.

Based on the way this spreads, likely 5x (ore more) people actually have it than has been reported.

And they don't even know it.

[mannyv11]

Originally Posted by gmh1013

28:06:42:12

lol I wouldn't go that far =)

[mannyv11]

Originally Posted by Kowaco

Conclusion. CDC estimates that influenza was associated with more than 35.5 million illnesses, more than 16.5 million medical visits, 490,600 hospitalizations, and 34,200 deaths during the 2018–2019 influenza season

Interesting


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I really think people need to stop trying to compare it to the flu, we get it the flu numbers are what they are, but it isn't related to Covid-19

[Spartacus]

Originally Posted by Laszlo

From Dr. Fauci:

Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, issued a disturbing warning during a White House briefing Tuesday: Americans everywhere need to change the way they live their lives. Right now.

"We would like the country to realize that as a nation, we can't be doing the kinds of things we were doing a few months ago. It doesn't matter if you're in a state that has no cases or one case," Fauci said, referring Americans to the new federal Coronavirus.gov website for details on precautions to take at home, at work and out in the world.

"If and when the infections will come -- and they will come, sorry to say, sad to say -- when you're dealing with an infectious disease... we want to be where the infection is going to be, as well as where it is," Fauci said.

"If and when the infections will come -- and they will come, sorry to say, sad to say -- when you're dealing with an infectious disease... we want to be where the infection is going to be, as well as where it is," Fauci said.

"Everybody should say, 'All hands on deck,'" he added.

Dr. Fauci has lost all credibility from my perspective.

He should be fired immediately. He had an obligation to send this message earlier, he and the task force decided to play politics and try to convince everyone “no change to your life”...now, faced with facts, they are moving the message.

This whole situation screams of hubris.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by gmh1013

28:06:42:12

oh no....

I take it all back.

we are not exaggerating this.

[joeychitwood]

Originally Posted by seslwr

Was listening to a Joe Rogan podcast. His guest was Michael Olsterholm, who is an infectious disease researcher with the University of Minnesota. This guy knows his stuff. His forecast in the U.S. is 90 million infections, 48 million hospitalizations, and 480,000 fatalities.

i went to the U of M medical school. Osterholm is a truth teller, whether it’s a popular opinion or not. He and Fauci in my mind are the two most reliable sources in the US.

[77T]

Originally Posted by Zakalwe

So basically he's predicting Armageddon? Since - and I'm taking a figure from Paul 77T earlier upthread as Gospel - you only have 700k hospital beds in the entire country, it won't actually be possible to admit even a small fraction of that number of people to hospital.

I’m not that good to write a Gospel, - but my stats are from the AHA 2020 report.

So that’s as factual as the American Hospital Assn. is in their reporting.

Check out aha.org

The predictions of dire healthcare impacts are based on many assumptions, variables and unknowns. One thing for sure is that large numbers can fool the reader.

If we have an outbreak in an understaffed area, they will be overwhelmed. To that group, the big numbers are fairly useless.

I should also say that the AHA number I cited in my earlier question didn’t include military and other state-owned facilities. The public wouldn’t go there unless we have a National State of Emergency methinks.

So if we take every bed from every type of hospital, then we have 931,203 beds. Again a large number and every bed isn’t available to every citizen.

For comparison, over 36+ million admissions are handled annually. That includes elective procedures that might be postponed in an emergency situation.



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[Moggo]

Originally Posted by joeychitwood

i went to the U of M medical school. Osterholm is a truth teller, whether it’s a popular opinion or not. He and Fauci in my mind are the two most reliable sources in the US.

Why so much greater numbers than China though?


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[Moggo]

I see WHO have just declared it a pandemic.


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