the Coronavirus outbreak thread

[superdog]

Lots of people complaint that there are no tests.

Okay. Who cares?

If you get sick, err on the side of caution and figure you have this. Self quarantine. Rest, stay hydrated, rest, eat fruits and vegetables and rest some more.

The vast majority that get this, won’t even know it.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by daveathall

They are also going ask those on the "at risk" list to self isolate, I am on that list, I have a seriously compromised immune system, COPD and heart problems. I am 62 and as far as possible will self isolate for that length of time, my wife will work from home. What is the alternative? The risk of death by catching this virus, for me is, is very real. I live in the country and am retired so will take walks in the countryside, my wife will do the shopping at off peak times. To carry on as normal would be foolish.

I see those from the media are saying it is a big ask, I dont hear them coming up with an alternative. The media are just trying to generate viewing figures by continuously criticising. Just watching Sophie Ridge and her colleagues on Sky, whinging and whining but not coming up with anything useful. Rather than peddle news, it seems to me that they spend their time trying to embarrass politicians and ultimately force them out of a job.

What was said by the Health Minister in regards to self isolation for the old and infirm was "it will happen, but not yet, starting too soon would be too difficult to sustain." I don't know what is so difficult for her to understand about that? If there is an alternative view to "shielding the old and firm" it should be aired.

Originally Posted by BLACKHORSE 6

My father-in-law is an international airline pilot and tested positive for coronavirus several days ago, one of the very first in our area. Because of our contact with him, my family and I self-quarantined as soon as he thought there was a problem. Our 22 month old son is showing symptoms, so we’re just waiting to see for the rest of us in the house.

We’ll work through it. I’m not overly concerned about our 6 year old or toddler, as the virus doesn’t seem to hit kids that hard and my father-in-law seems to be doing fine. My wife is 6 months pregnant, so keeping a close eye on her.

My thoughts are with you guys.

Stay safe.

[daveathall]

Originally Posted by rootbeer7

I agree with you about the media. I’ve just watched this video explaining the thought process of government. Here’s the link
https://youtu.be/nl6tTwxzCi8.
Basically it’s suggesting that isolating a population can only happen once and it needs to be well timed to allow the Health Service to cope.

That is an excellent video, thank you for posting the link, much appreciated.

[daveathall]

Originally Posted by superdog

My thoughts are with you guys.

Stay safe.

Thank you Seth.

[subtona]

Originally Posted by superdog

...

The vast majority that get this, won’t even know it.

This is a major concern, young healthy people who encounter elderly parents or friends are exposing them without even knowing it.

Everyone must be thoughtful about interacting in groups and follow best practices to help reduce the rate of transmission.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by subtona

This is a major concern, young healthy people who encounter elderly parents or friends are exposing them without even knowing it.

Everyone must be thoughtful about interacting in groups and follow best practices to help reduce the rate of transmission.

You are absolutely correct.

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by subtona

This is a major concern, young healthy people who encounter elderly parents or friends are exposing them without even knowing it.

Everyone must be thoughtful about interacting in groups and follow best practices to help reduce the rate of transmission.

Originally Posted by superdog

You are absolutely correct.

Yes. In all this crisis this is the thing that most concerns me. Most of us have parents. Most of our parents are probably in that danger age. This worries me the most.

[Hollie_Rollie]

Originally Posted by BLACKHORSE 6

My father-in-law is an international airline pilot and tested positive for coronavirus several days ago, one of the very first in our area. Because of our contact with him, my family and I self-quarantined as soon as he thought there was a problem. Our 22 month old son is showing symptoms, so we’re just waiting to see for the rest of us in the house.

We’ll work through it. I’m not overly concerned about our 6 year old or toddler, as the virus doesn’t seem to hit kids that hard and my father-in-law seems to be doing fine. My wife is 6 months pregnant, so keeping a close eye on her.

Prayers for you and your family. I have full confidence all of your loved one affected will make a full recovery.

[daveathall]

Originally Posted by subtona

This is a major concern, young healthy people who encounter elderly parents or friends are exposing them without even knowing it.

Everyone must be thoughtful about interacting in groups and follow best practices to help reduce the rate of transmission.

Perfect.

[Moggo]

Originally Posted by daveathall

They are also going ask those on the "at risk" list to self isolate, I am on that list, I have a seriously compromised immune system, COPD and heart problems. I am 62 and as far as possible will self isolate for that length of time, my wife will work from home. What is the alternative? The risk of death by catching this virus, for me is, is very real. I live in the country and am retired so will take walks in the countryside, my wife will do the shopping at off peak times. To carry on as normal would be foolish.

I see those from the media are saying it is a big ask, I dont hear them coming up with an alternative. The media are just trying to generate viewing figures by continuously criticising. Just watching Sophie Ridge and her colleagues on Sky, whinging and whining but not coming up with anything useful. Rather than peddle news, it seems to me that they spend their time trying to embarrass politicians and ultimately force them out of a job.

What was said by the Health Minister in regards to self isolation for the old and infirm was "it will happen, but not yet, starting too soon would be too difficult to sustain." I don't know what is so difficult for her to understand about that? If there is an alternative view to "shielding the old and firm" it should be aired.

With all due respect you have an ideal scenario to be able to do it, try a high rise somewhere with no family.

I get your point but many will go through tremendous hardship.

Just my point of view. Alternative? Testing,


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[Kowaco]

Testing is a red herring, if we had the means to test every soul on earth right now then there would be another road block. And on and on it goes


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[m j b]

Sal and Dave and everyone else in the high risk groups, my best wishes.

Unfortunately people are needlessly panicking around here, clearing out the grocery stores and worrying. I'm not trying to diminish the severity, but I think hoarding is anti-social.

[Zakalwe]

Originally Posted by m j b

Sal and Dave and everyone else in the high risk groups, my best wishes.

Unfortunately people are needlessly panicking around here, clearing out the grocery stores and worrying. I'm not trying to diminish the severity, but I think hoarding is anti-social.

Cheers Michael

I’m sure there are some mathematicians on here that can express this better than me, and it’s a bit of a tangent, but I find game theory fascinating and this supermarket thing (which is going on in this neck of the woods too) seems to be a variation of the classic Prisoners Dilemma.

If everybody co-operates and only takes what they need, then there’s enough for everybody and there’s no problem. If however you suspect that a substantial proportion of people will act selfishly and buy up more than they need, then the actual rational response, if your priority is self preservation, is to also act selfishly and hoard, to the detriment of the people who act selflessly.

The solution would seem to be obvious - rationing at the point of purchase.

[Moggo]

Originally Posted by Kowaco

Testing is a red herring, if we had the means to test every soul on earth right now then there would be another road block. And on and on it goes


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Just had an expert on from South Korea who seemed to handle it pretty well. Expressed that their best policy was testing so they could truly isolate the ill.

If we tested then those that had it and got better could assist those who hadn’t knowing they would cause no danger.


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[GB-man]

Originally Posted by Kowaco

Testing is a red herring


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The results of S Korea vs say Italy prove otherwise. Reducing there R0 value early on is the absolute best we can do. The only way to do this is to track and inform those who are infected and reduce the contact rate.

[brandrea]

Originally Posted by Zakalwe

I’m self isolating as of today. Cough and headache. My surgery is as of now four hands down with respiratory tract infections - another small illustration of the fact that the impact on the health service is as much of a threat as the virus itself. I have no way of knowing whether or not what we’ve come down with is COVID-19 or another of the legion respiratory viruses that do the rounds, but I will say that I don’t remember the last time that four clinicians at the practice were off work with an RTI at the same time.

Originally Posted by daveathall

They are also going ask those on the "at risk" list to self isolate, I am on that list, I have a seriously compromised immune system, COPD and heart problems. I am 62 and as far as possible will self isolate for that length of time, my wife will work from home. What is the alternative? The risk of death by catching this virus, for me is, is very real. I live in the country and am retired so will take walks in the countryside, my wife will do the shopping at off peak times. To carry on as normal would be foolish.

I see those from the media are saying it is a big ask, I dont hear them coming up with an alternative. The media are just trying to generate viewing figures by continuously criticising. Just watching Sophie Ridge and her colleagues on Sky, whinging and whining but not coming up with anything useful. Rather than peddle news, it seems to me that they spend their time trying to embarrass politicians and ultimately force them out of a job.

What was said by the Health Minister in regards to self isolation for the old and infirm was "it will happen, but not yet, starting too soon would be too difficult to sustain." I don't know what is so difficult for her to understand about that? If there is an alternative view to "shielding the old and firm" it should be aired.

Originally Posted by BLACKHORSE 6

My father-in-law is an international airline pilot and tested positive for coronavirus several days ago, one of the very first in our area. Because of our contact with him, my family and I self-quarantined as soon as he thought there was a problem. Our 22 month old son is showing symptoms, so we’re just waiting to see for the rest of us in the house.

We’ll work through it. I’m not overly concerned about our 6 year old or toddler, as the virus doesn’t seem to hit kids that hard and my father-in-law seems to be doing fine. My wife is 6 months pregnant, so keeping a close eye on her.

Thoughts and prayers to you all.

[daveathall]

Originally Posted by Moggo

With all due respect you have an ideal scenario to be able to do it, try a high rise somewhere with no family.

I get your point but many will go through tremendous hardship.

Just my point of view. Alternative? Testing,


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What do you suggest? Testing everyone? That test is only as good as the minute it is taken. I may be in a better than some position, but what is the next solution?

It may be that people go through hardship during the attempted shielding, the alternative is to allow them to carry on as normal, contract the virus and then die, it is a precaution.


You keep on about testing, the thinking is quite clear, if one feels the symptoms one self isolates, if one gets worse, one is then tested. Testing has not cured one person.

[daveathall]

Originally Posted by m j b

Sal and Dave and everyone else in the high risk groups, my best wishes.

Originally Posted by brandrea

Thoughts and prayers to you all.

Thank you Michael and Brian.

[Moggo]

Originally Posted by daveathall

What do you suggest? Testing everyone? That test is only as good as the minute it is taken. I may be in a better than some position, but what is the next solution?

It may be that people go through hardship during the attempted shielding, the alternative is to allow them to carry on as normal, contract the virus and then die, it is a precaution.


You keep on about testing, the thinking is quite clear, if one feels the symptoms one self isolates, if one gets worse, one is then tested. Testing has not cured one person.

Agreed it’s not cured anyone but saved many. It’s not only as good as the time it’s taken if it’s positive. Isolating with symptoms that could be a seasonal cold is not helping.

We will have to agree to differ, all the best


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[daveathall]

Originally Posted by Moggo

Agreed it’s not cured anyone but saved many. It’s not only as good as the time it’s taken if it’s positive. Isolating with symptoms that could be a seasonal cold is not helping.

We will have to agree to differ, all the best

Of course my friend

[statsman]

In the US, testing issue was solved a few days ago. Private company testing went online, and without formal announcement, the requirement for a test went from “showing symptoms and exposed to a know carrier” to “doctor requests a test”. If your doctor believes you need a test, you can get a test.

Say, is everyone buying the stats from PRC- single digit new cases per day?

[mountainjogger]

Originally Posted by daveathall

You keep on about testing, the thinking is quite clear, if one feels the symptoms one self isolates, if one gets worse, one is then tested. Testing has not cured one person.

Agree that the constant repeating drama over the initial lack of testing capability in some countries is not helping. In my opinion It was initially important bring the issue to light. But now that government and industry seem to be devoting reasonable efforts and resources to increase availability of testing it is time to move on and talk about something constructive. Unfortunately, that does not sell as many clicks.

As to the utility of testing, I also agree that mass testing of people who do not fit the criteria is a waste of time and resources, and in fact is disruptive to the social distancing that is being advocated. Think about the strain this would put on an already over burdened medical system.

I do have one caveat. Since it appears that asymptomatic people may be able to spread Covid-19, people with a known exposure to a confirmed case, or who have spent significant time in outbreak area should also either self isolate or be tested.

[mountainjogger]

Originally Posted by statsman

In the US, testing issue was solved a few days ago. Private company testing went online, and without formal announcement, the requirement for a test went from “showing symptoms and exposed to a know carrier” to “doctor requests a test”. If your doctor believes you need a test, you can get a test.

Yes. And as an observation, in my area providers are setting up tent triages outside of hospitals for testing to go on line now. Front page news on local media.

[mountainjogger]

Originally Posted by statsman

Say, is everyone buying the stats from PRC- single digit new cases per day?

Hope it is true. It would be great news. But even if there is a slight fudge factor, it still appears to be vastly improved.

[gmh1013]

2 weeks ago March 1st at 8 pm cst according to the Johns Hopkins website there was 71 reported cases in the USA ....today at 10am there are 2952 reported cases ....big jump

[c41006]

Originally Posted by gmh1013

2 weeks ago March 1st at 8 pm cst according to the Johns Hopkins website there was 71 reported cases in the USA ....today at 10am there are 2952 reported cases ....big jump

It isn't as crazy of a number when you consider the total population. Still not good obviously. We shall see what happens between now and next Sunday. This past week was a crazy one.

[gwozhog]

Do we have any TRF members in Wuhan? How can a virus be so contagious in a city of 11 million people and they already have empty hospital beds. Are the Chinese officials telling lies by saying they have it contained? I think the only thing deadly about this virus is the News Media telling us we are all going to die.

[c41006]

Originally Posted by gwozhog

Do we have any TRF members in Wuhan? How can a virus be so contagious in a city of 11 million people and they already have empty hospital beds. Are the Chinese officials telling lies by saying they have it contained? I think the only thing deadly about this virus is the News Media telling us we are all going to die.

I was wondering the same. I seems to have peaked and subsided REALLY quickly. I think watching what happens in Italy is going to be a better true indicator.

[RW16610]

My thoughts and prayers are also with all either facing symptoms, at high risk, or just in general to avoid this virus.

I've kept calm and have been sensible about this but the things I've been witnessing have me a bit worried. I'm doing everything to avoid contact and reduce the probability of exposure.

A few years ago I was diagnosed with benign neutropenia and ended up seeing a hemotologist for 7 months. The levels have fallen even further since then and after my last blood test the doctor wants me to go for a follow-up test in mid March. I guess to track the rate they're falling and possibly diagnose as chronic, I'm not sure. I'll be holding off for a bit to avoid medical clinics / labs and have to consider working from home.

Despite taking precautions and maintaining my composure I would be telling a lie if I was to say this wasn't always on the back of my mind. I just REALLY want things to be back to normal again.

[JasoninDenver]

Originally Posted by c41006

I was wondering the same. I seems to have peaked and subsided REALLY quickly. I think watching what happens in Italy is going to be a better true indicator.

Just remember the extreme measures that Wuhan had to take to get it to subside at the rate it did.

Italy eventually took the same steps, but a bit later in the curve. The effects of this delay will be telling.

Dr. Fauci just stated that his ideal scenario would be where people at the end of this said we overreacted.