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Old 1 August 2020, 08:50 AM   #121
GreenLantern
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I don't think it has anything to do with that.

Simply, the pandemic caused a roughly 25% reduction in production for 2020 (at least, AP is at minus 25%, and I have to presume so are Patek and Rolex).

This reduced production reduces an already constrained supply. Hence the madness we see right now.

If there's extremely long term unemployment and negative economic forces, obviously demand will drop. But it's too short of a period right now to have that significant of an effect to outweigh the further reduction in supply.
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Old 1 August 2020, 11:01 AM   #122
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Nice fake 5711... That purplish tint never existed in the real thing. Come on man...
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+1....^^^......

I did an investigation on the OP....

All I could say is this......

OP is trolling us.....lol.....

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Originally Posted by RoscoPico View Post
always baffles me. like feeding their own lie or something.
pretty sure op's not the only member either (not referring to this thread)

but the thread is merited nonetheless
Is the watch fake or not? That is a pretty serious accusation here so I'm just trying to understand what's going on.
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Old 1 August 2020, 08:42 PM   #123
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Nice fake 5711... That purplish tint never existed in the real thing. Come on man...
Ever heard of white balance? Don’t know whether the watch is genuine, but I know the colors say more about how the camera that captured that shot works than about the watch...
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Old 1 August 2020, 08:50 PM   #124
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I don't think it has anything to do with that.

Simply, the pandemic caused a roughly 25% reduction in production for 2020 (at least, AP is at minus 25%, and I have to presume so are Patek and Rolex).

This reduced production reduces an already constrained supply. Hence the madness we see right now.

If there's extremely long term unemployment and negative economic forces, obviously demand will drop. But it's too short of a period right now to have that significant of an effect to outweigh the further reduction in supply.
I think when bonuses start falling flat in February-April, things will start to slow. The industry was kept afloat by a lot of opportunistic purchasers over the initial wave, as prices dropped and people still had ample money. The second factor will change as GDPs regress over the coming years and thus the prices may slide. But the fact of the matter remains that AP and Patek will likely be the last to be affected. They can reduce their hot steel models to almost zero and continue to operate (Patek more so than AP). I could see Rolex prices losing ground first, as less people find themselves in a position to pay gray prices.
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Old 1 August 2020, 09:46 PM   #125
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I think when bonuses start falling flat in February-April, things will start to slow. The industry was kept afloat by a lot of opportunistic purchasers over the initial wave, as prices dropped and people still had ample money. The second factor will change as GDPs regress over the coming years and thus the prices may slide. But the fact of the matter remains that AP and Patek will likely be the last to be affected. They can reduce their hot steel models to almost zero and continue to operate (Patek more so than AP). I could see Rolex prices losing ground first, as less people find themselves in a position to pay gray prices.

Agree with you on the GDP ramifications but this crisis has really only widened the wealth gap which benefits the top end of the market ie >$20k. Also agree on Rolex suffering first; that said the real wild card here is Asia which seems to be sucking up everything luxury


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Old 2 August 2020, 01:05 AM   #126
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Ever heard of white balance? Don’t know whether the watch is genuine, but I know the colors say more about how the camera that captured that shot works than about the watch...
This question is bothering me now. Nick was banned because of that and he was a great member that I miss a lot, so if you don't mind OP, and please don't get me wrong, also if you bought your watch at an AD it's all good and I'm sorry, but would you mind posting a closer picture?

I'm not an expert on this watch, in fact I'm not an expert on anything and all I know is the watch is square with blue or white stripes on the dial and has a date that desperately needs a diet to fit that window properly, but I'm sure other members will be able to give their opinion and we can put that doubt to rest.

Would you be kind enough to post another picture OP?
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Old 2 August 2020, 01:19 AM   #127
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This question is bothering me now. Nick was banned because of that and he was a great member that I miss a lot, so if you don't mind OP, and please don't get me wrong, also if you bought your watch at an AD it's all good and I'm sorry, but would you mind posting a closer picture?

I'm not an expert on this watch, in fact I'm not an expert on anything and all I know is the watch is square with blue or white stripes on the dial and has a date that desperately needs a diet to fit that window properly, but I'm sure other members will be able to give their opinion and we can put that doubt to rest.

Would you be so kind and post another picture OP?

It’s at the safe box at the moment, but I have a photo I hope it clears this miss.


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Old 2 August 2020, 01:25 AM   #128
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Uh... absolutely not. Pre-covid during peak Nautilus back in late 2019 getting a good condition 5711 at less than $70K took a little effort. Now getting one at $55K is easy peasy. Inflated C24 unworn listings:
If you or anyone wants to sell me an Unworn 5711 @$55k today PM me. I‘ll wire on arrival, easy peasy.

Regular joes are blowing unemployment $$$ on any and everything sub $5k.
“Rich” guys are blowing cash for big boy toys since PPP money came along.
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Old 2 August 2020, 01:27 AM   #129
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If you or anyone wants to sell me an Unworn 5711 @$55k today PM me. I‘ll wire on arrival, easy peasy.

Regular joes are blowing unemployment $$$ on any and everything sub $5k.
“Rich” guys are blowing cash for big boy toys since PPP money came along.
What is happening too is the USD is dropping and Asia is mopping up. Nautilus prices are climbing.
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Old 2 August 2020, 01:27 AM   #130
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It’s at the safe box at the moment, but I have a photo I hope it clears this miss.


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Now it's here for anyone to judge. Thank you and sorry for the trouble.
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Old 2 August 2020, 01:36 AM   #131
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Nice fake 5711... That purplish tint never existed in the real thing. Come on man...
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That branding PP plate on the 5711 isnt found on a 2013... Quit lying too
Do you stand by your comments? Pretty aggressive accusation that normaly leads to ban here.
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Old 2 August 2020, 01:47 AM   #132
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Is the watch fake or not? That is a pretty serious accusation here so I'm just trying to understand what's going on.
i too am no expert and have no intention of ever calling out authenticity based on pictures.
but i am fully aware some members try to post pictures of high end fakes and pass them as authentic. that baffles me
people who try to sell them disgust me.
people wearing and enjoying fakes does not bother me in the least.

i don't know who nick is, but was he banned for posting up fakes, or accusing someone else of it ?
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Old 2 August 2020, 01:48 AM   #133
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Duplicate

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Old 2 August 2020, 01:52 AM   #134
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The Nautilus was purchased early in my Patek journey. Over the years, I have added an AC, PC, manual chrono, PCC, WT and many others. Some people here may remember my "white metal collection" series.

However for nostalgic reasons, I have kept the Nautilus. It reminded me of how I got started with the brand. I am the poster child of what Thierry Stern mentions in his interviews, where a single watch (e.g. Nautilus) may be an entry point into the brand, but one grows to appreciate all the other watches they offer.

Certainly being invited to tour their factory and meeting TS and other Patek execs was a big part of the journey.

Although I am not as crazy about the Nautilus as others are and do not fully understand people willing to pay 2-3x retail price, I see how it can be an entry point into a brand that can lead someone to becoming a long-term customer.
that's pretty awesome right there !!!
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Old 2 August 2020, 01:52 AM   #135
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The 5711 is in the safe box but I got these now.



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Old 2 August 2020, 01:57 AM   #136
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nice collection op.
and not for my sake, but if you wanted to post a pic for other members to have a look see, i'd say it needs to be much more of a macro shot, and include some movement pics.
cheers
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Old 2 August 2020, 02:02 AM   #137
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i too am no expert and have no intention of ever calling out authenticity based on pictures.
but i am fully aware some members try to post pictures of high end fakes and pass them as authentic. that baffles me
people who try to sell them disgust me.
people wearing and enjoying fakes does not bother me in the least.

i don't know who nick is, but was he banned for posting up fakes, or accusing someone else of it ?
You're absolutely right and that's why I politely asked the OP. Nick posted a fake PAM. Stupid mistake. To make things worse he stood by his picture. Another member called him out. Sad actually. Nick was almost the only one that loved my Russian threads about watches, alphabet, cities, etc that used to fail completely but he always posted. Very kind guy. I'm sorry about what happened but we're all grown ups here and I had no way to post anything to defend him.
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Old 2 August 2020, 02:02 AM   #138
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If you or anyone wants to sell me an Unworn 5711 @$55k today PM me. I‘ll wire on arrival, easy peasy.

Regular joes are blowing unemployment $$$ on any and everything sub $5k.
“Rich” guys are blowing cash for big boy toys since PPP money came along.
Strawman? I wrote ”good condition”, not ”unworn”. And erh, wire on arrival? You wish.

Here’s one that was the equivalent of $55K-ish at the time of writing* that’s gone unsold on the biggest Swedish watch forum for some time.

* As in before the covid situation sent the USD down the sh*tter.

https://klocksnack.se/threads/patek-...e-5711.132440/
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Old 2 August 2020, 02:04 AM   #139
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nice collection op.
and not for my sake, but if you wanted to post a pic for other members to have a look see, i'd say it needs to be much more of a macro shot, and include some movement pics.
cheers
Wouldn't hurt.
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Old 2 August 2020, 02:06 AM   #140
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You're absolutely right and that's why I politely asked the OP. Nick posted a fake PAM. Stupid mistake. To make things worse he stood by his picture. Another member called him out. Sad actually. Nick was almost the only one that loved my Russian threads about watches, alphabet, cities, etc that used to fail completely but he always posted. Very kind guy. I'm sorry about what happened but we're all grown ups here and I had no way to post anything to defend him.
ah that is a bummer. wonder if he knew his was fake ? i will have to start reading your threads then !!! :)
my name is Chris btw. nice to meet you

and yeah agreed about this thread. i also don't want to pretend i know what i'm talking about, but i won't assume either the op or the comments are correct. i think op has the chance to post pictures to defend himself, and probably should at this point
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Old 2 August 2020, 02:09 AM   #141
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ah that is a bummer. wonder if he knew his was fake ? i will have to start reading your threads then !!! :)
my name is Chris btw. nice to meet you

and yeah agreed about this thread. i also don't want to pretend i know what i'm talking about, but i won't assume either the op or the comments are correct. i think op has the chance to post pictures to defend himself, and probably should at this point

I just posted a pic you can see it.
And my next trip to the bank would be in about a month, I’ll make sure to take some close up pics and post them here.



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Old 2 August 2020, 02:10 AM   #142
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ah that is a bummer. wonder if he knew his was fake ? i will have to start reading your threads then !!! :)
my name is Chris btw. nice to meet you

and yeah agreed about this thread. i also don't want to pretend i know what i'm talking about, but i won't assume either the op or the comments are correct. i think op has the chance to post pictures to defend himself, and probably should at this point
I think he knew. Unfortunately.

Nice to meet you as well Chris.
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Old 2 August 2020, 03:49 AM   #143
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This was actually supposed to go back to the bank with the 5711 but apparently it’s staying at home, it also got resized already







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Old 2 August 2020, 04:13 AM   #144
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Strawman? I wrote ”good condition”, not ”unworn”. And erh, wire on arrival? You wish.

Here’s one that was the equivalent of $55K-ish at the time of writing* that’s gone unsold on the biggest Swedish watch forum for some time.

* As in before the covid situation sent the USD down the sh*tter.

https://klocksnack.se/threads/patek-...e-5711.132440/
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Old 2 August 2020, 05:09 AM   #145
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Is the watch fake or not? That is a pretty serious accusation here so I'm just trying to understand what's going on.
Well there a lot of fishy thread on Patek Philippe discussion forum lately......

IMHO this is one of them.....

Just do a quick Thread / Thread Starter search on the OP.....

Member since 10-9-19 You could tell the OP is an amateur into the watch hobby by the history of the thread he start.....

Nothing wrong with it...... You have to start somewhere......

Some of my quick proof of evidence....

Notice pictures inconsistent....

Good pictures of OP watch that he own....... Just check out OP Thread Starter... OP seem to have a lot of detail pictures of the real watch that he own.....

Except for the 5711 and maybe Daytona 500..... Which IMHO is fake.....





















---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
VS bad pictures of 5711.... Notice pictures of the 5711 always far away from the wrist shot and minutes hand always cover the date window....







VS bad pictures of 5711.... Notice pictures of the 5711 always far away from the wrist shot and minutes hand always cover the date window....

The more OP post about his 5711 the more he letting the cat out of the bag.....

https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=753315

Fishy thread about him drop the 5711 3-4 feet face down on tile floor...^^^.....

I find it hard to believe no damage or dents or scratch whatsoever.....

Even drop a Rolex 3-4 feet face down on tile floor will do some kind of damage.....

Quote:
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Hello fellow members
I am actually starting to think that the prices on these is actually pretty nuts, and I really don't think it's justified what so ever, this watch is so so over priced and after sometime with it I think people are crazy now a days paying 60-70k for this piece or any Nautilus for that matter.
What do you guys think? Do you think the Nautilus market will soften in the near future?
I think these will drop to 25-35k in the near future which is a fair price for this watch
All inputs are appreciated.
Thank you.
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Pretty much impossible.
I bought mine at the end of 2013 after 6 month from getting my name on the waiting list.


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How many time you have it?
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I bought it in 2013


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Letting cat out of the bag again.......

OP try to showoff that he smart and never buy over retail......

Again OP being a member of TRF since 10-9-19 and you could tell the OP is an amateur into the watch hobby by questions he posts about Rolex watch in general.......

I doubt he even know about the 5711 back in 2013.....

Since he own the 5711 for 7 years..... He recently post 3 bad pictures of the 5711...... He telling us he don't have any good pictures of the 5711 in his back up files photos.....

Then he telling us he couldn't take new pictures of the 5711 because is in the bank safe but promise he go to the bank safe to take some pictures of the 5711 that he own.......

Come on give me a break...... I don't buy it.......

Most likely he going to the gray dealer to take some good wrist shots photos of the 5711.......

Seriously their no point of asking him to post new pictures of the 5711......

This could have been a great topic discussion until he post a awful fake 5711......
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Old 2 August 2020, 05:16 AM   #146
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I'll just grab my popcorn now
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Old 2 August 2020, 05:17 AM   #147
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Well there a lot of fishy thread on Patek Philippe discussion forum lately......

IMHO this is one of them.....

Just do a quick Thread / Thread Starter search on the OP.....

Member since 10-9-19 You could tell the OP is an amateur into the watch hobby by the history of the thread he start.....

Nothing wrong with it...... You have to start somewhere......

Some of my quick proof of evidence....

Notice pictures inconsistent....

Good pictures of OP watch that he own....... Just check out OP Thread Starter... OP seem to have a lot of detail pictures of the real watch that he own.....

Except for the 5711 and maybe Daytona 500..... Which IMHO is fake.....





















---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
VS bad pictures of 5711.... Notice pictures of the 5711 always far away from the wrist shot and minutes hand always cover the date window....







VS bad pictures of 5711.... Notice pictures of the 5711 always far away from the wrist shot and minutes hand always cover the date window....

The more OP post about his 5711 the more he letting the cat out of the bag.....

https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=753315

Fishy thread about him drop the 5711 3-4 feet face down on tile floor...^^^.....

I find it hard to believe no damage or dents or scratch whatsoever.....

Even drop a Rolex 3-4 feet face down on tile floor will do some kind of damage.....









Letting cat out of the bag again.......

OP try to showoff that he smart and never buy over retail......

Again OP being a member of TRF since 10-9-19 and you could tell the OP is an amateur into the watch hobby by questions he posts about Rolex watch in general.......

I doubt he even know about the 5711 back in 2013.....

Since he own the 5711 for 7 years..... He recently post 3 bad pictures of the 5711...... He telling us he don't have any good pictures of the 5711 in his back up files photos.....

Then he telling us he couldn't take new pictures of the 5711 because is in the bank safe but promise he go to the bank safe to take some pictures of the 5711 that he own.......

Come on give me a break...... I don't buy it.......

Most likely he going to the gray dealer to take some good wrist shots photos of the 5711.......

Seriously their no point of asking him to post new pictures of the 5711......

This could have been a great topic discussion until he post a awful fake 5711......

Dude you’re out of your mind.
But I like that detective work.
Btw been a collector for 10 years now and Almost bought and sold every hot watch that you ever dream of wearing.


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Old 2 August 2020, 06:00 AM   #148
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Originally Posted by SL BRABUS View Post
Well there a lot of fishy thread on Patek Philippe discussion forum lately......

IMHO this is one of them.....

Just do a quick Thread / Thread Starter search on the OP.....

Member since 10-9-19 You could tell the OP is an amateur into the watch hobby by the history of the thread he start.....

Nothing wrong with it...... You have to start somewhere......

Some of my quick proof of evidence....

Notice pictures inconsistent....

Good pictures of OP watch that he own....... Just check out OP Thread Starter... OP seem to have a lot of detail pictures of the real watch that he own.....

Except for the 5711 and maybe Daytona 500..... Which IMHO is fake.....





















---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
VS bad pictures of 5711.... Notice pictures of the 5711 always far away from the wrist shot and minutes hand always cover the date window....







VS bad pictures of 5711.... Notice pictures of the 5711 always far away from the wrist shot and minutes hand always cover the date window....

The more OP post about his 5711 the more he letting the cat out of the bag.....

https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=753315

Fishy thread about him drop the 5711 3-4 feet face down on tile floor...^^^.....

I find it hard to believe no damage or dents or scratch whatsoever.....

Even drop a Rolex 3-4 feet face down on tile floor will do some kind of damage.....









Letting cat out of the bag again.......

OP try to showoff that he smart and never buy over retail......

Again OP being a member of TRF since 10-9-19 and you could tell the OP is an amateur into the watch hobby by questions he posts about Rolex watch in general.......

I doubt he even know about the 5711 back in 2013.....

Since he own the 5711 for 7 years..... He recently post 3 bad pictures of the 5711...... He telling us he don't have any good pictures of the 5711 in his back up files photos.....

Then he telling us he couldn't take new pictures of the 5711 because is in the bank safe but promise he go to the bank safe to take some pictures of the 5711 that he own.......

Come on give me a break...... I don't buy it.......

Most likely he going to the gray dealer to take some good wrist shots photos of the 5711.......

Seriously their no point of asking him to post new pictures of the 5711......

This could have been a great topic discussion until he post a awful fake 5711......
Wow, you put a lot of time into this. Personally, what looks awkward to me is the crown, which seems to stick out of the crown guards a bit far, but not enough to judge anyone in my view.
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Old 2 August 2020, 06:08 AM   #149
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Originally Posted by Nav01L View Post
Wow, you put a lot of time into this. Personally, what looks awkward to me is the crown, which seems to stick out of the crown guards a bit far, but not enough to judge anyone in my view.
the guy gets called out on his 5711, post a garbage resolution picture and expect us to believe his watch is genuine? and it looks like he just got banned by the mods, I wonder why...
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Old 2 August 2020, 06:34 AM   #150
Nav01L
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ganiccus View Post
the guy gets called out on his 5711, post a garbage resolution picture and expect us to believe his watch is genuine? and it looks like he just got banned by the mods, I wonder why...
I just meant that the image was not enough to judge whether it’s fake
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