2021 Run Out Predictions

[Acquisition40]

Hi all and Happy New Year,

What models do you think will be discontinued as of 2021? Any guesses?

S

[GenevaFan]

Originally Posted by Acquisition40

Hi all and Happy New Year,



What models do you think will be discontinued as of 2021? Any guesses?



S

Air King

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[77T]

Didn’t know Patek Philippe made Air Kings...


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[maecenas]

I asked around a little and no one has heard anything. I suppose they might delay due to not being able to launch what they wanted this year, but I really really hope they discontinue the 5270p. I feel like the Salmon dial should be kept rare. At the moment, there are a good number around, but discontinuation right now should drive them up fast.

[Acquisition40]

Originally Posted by maecenas

I asked around a little and no one has heard anything. I suppose they might delay due to not being able to launch what they wanted this year, but I really really hope they discontinue the 5270p. I feel like the Salmon dial should be kept rare. At the moment, there are a good number around, but discontinuation right now should drive them up fast.

Same. No news of any sort.

Perhaps the 5270J is a good indicator that the P is on its way out?!

Do people here think that the 5270P will be the last non-application production salmon dial watch for the next foreseeable future?

Not sure if any of the sports models will be run out, and a few of my friends are hoping to see a 5712/1R.

S

[jamestucker]

Originally Posted by 77T

Didn’t know Patek Philippe made Air Kings...


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[jamestucker]

My guesses would be 5270P, 5980R, 5980/1R, 5980/1AR

[PPcollector]

Originally Posted by maecenas

I asked around a little and no one has heard anything. I suppose they might delay due to not being able to launch what they wanted this year, but I really really hope they discontinue the 5270p. I feel like the Salmon dial should be kept rare. At the moment, there are a good number around, but discontinuation right now should drive them up fast.

Agreed...the 5270P has run it’s course and even secondary markets are really soft on this piece. It deserves more than what ppl are pricing it in. Of course, once discontinued maybe the prices will reflect the true value of this reference. I’m amazed that a Salmon dial Patek can be lower in price than MSRP...

[jamestucker]

Originally Posted by PPcollector

Agreed...the 5270P has run it’s course and even secondary markets are really soft on this piece. It deserves more than what ppl are pricing it in. Of course, once discontinued maybe the prices will reflect the true value of this reference. I’m amazed that a Salmon dial Patek can be lower in price than MSRP...

There are several pink dial Pateks which can be bought for a good deal at the moment, 5024G, 5124G etc

[PPcollector]

Originally Posted by jamestucker

There are several pink dial Pateks which can be bought for a good deal at the moment, 5024G, 5124G etc

Haha...correct but those are not CURRENT production references. On the other hand, 5270P is still in production AND is a PCC which is considered the DNA reference of Patek

[Calatrava r]

5196 is my guess.

[VintageVagabound]

Originally Posted by 77T

Didn’t know Patek Philippe made Air Kings...


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It’s known as the Heir King

[Russell996]

5131/1P. I am pretty sure this will go this year.

[Rushne]

Patekaholic is and has been insinuating that the 5711 blue dial will be discontinued/replaced. Who knows.

[Thrasher36]

LOL Heir King ...

[Russell996]

Originally Posted by Rushne

Patekaholic is and has been insinuating that the 5711 blue dial will be discontinued/replaced. Who knows.

Perhaps they will replace it with an actual ‘blue’ dial.

[maecenas]

Originally Posted by Russell996

5131/1P. I am pretty sure this will go this year.

Nooooooooo!!!! ... but yeah, I think you’re right. Wish I could have gotten one, but there’s just sooo few each year. I thought it was the best expression of the enamel world timer (for my style).

[ragsk]

Originally Posted by Rushne

Patekaholic is and has been insinuating that the 5711 blue dial will be discontinued/replaced. Who knows.

That would be a missive call!!! They have been making it for something like 15 years. Discontinuing it may start riots

They haven't even replaced the white dial yet.

Unless they release a brand new Nautilus line under a new reference and a new size?

[Rushne]

Originally Posted by ragsk

That would be a missive call!!! They have been making it for something like 15 years. Discontinuing it may start riots

They haven't even replaced the white dial yet.

Unless they release a brand new Nautilus line under a new reference and a new size?

They would have to keep something. 6711 maybe? :)

[jamestucker]

Originally Posted by Russell996

5131/1P. I am pretty sure this will go this year.

[IBDOC]

The 5711 are the only Nautilii (only time-dates overall) updated with 26-330. Don’t really see them discontinuing them unless they release a direct equivalent.

[bob101]

Just some guesses:

5712 range (perhaps just a new all gold + bracelet version option to replace for limited time)
5980 remaining models discontinued.
5990 new dial colour/ precious metal options
5167a to be replaced with a new 5168a size
5196, 5227 series - replaced with new calatrava line up, new movement
5270 - Just 5270J for another year or two

[Acquisition40]

Originally Posted by bob101

Just some guesses:

5712 range (perhaps just a new all gold + bracelet version option to replace for limited time)
5980 remaining models discontinued.
5990 new dial colour/ precious metal options
5167a to be replaced with a new 5168a size
5196, 5227 series - replaced with new calatrava line up, new movement
5270 - Just 5270J for another year or two

x2

[2nastie]

What's the average life span on a Patek model before there is a replacement? 10+?

I expect (or hoping) for a updated movement for the 5196. Just a new manual wind movement more fitting for the current case size with a display back.

That alone should be good enough in my books plus a few new dial options for other references...

[taylorhall]

Originally Posted by ragsk

That would be a missive call!!! They have been making it for something like 15 years. Discontinuing it may start riots

They haven't even replaced the white dial yet.

Unless they release a brand new Nautilus line under a new reference and a new size?

I can see them adding the 5740 clasp to all new Nautiluses...similar to what they have done with the woman equivalent 7118. My wife has the 7118 and it is nice because it has a micro adjuster. Or perhaps just ad the deployment clasp to only PM Nautiluses.

[ragsk]

Originally Posted by taylorhall

I can see them adding the 5740 clasp to all new Nautiluses...similar to what they have done with the woman equivalent 7118. My wife has the 7118 and it is nice because it has a micro adjuster. Or perhaps just ad the deployment clasp to only PM Nautiluses.

That would be great. Thats the only thing I dislike about the watch - the clasp is a real pain. On my white 5711 its a nail killer. My wife also has 7118 models and I way prefer the clasp system on those and it doesn’t add much bulk.

[GreenLantern]

Originally Posted by Russell996

5131/1P. I am pretty sure this will go this year.

I've been saying that (in private / in my head) for the past two years.

I continue to hope it won't disappear while I wait for mine.

[Rwatcher]

My AD seems to think 5726 on leather will say goodbye, its been around for 10 years now.