thoughts on Rolex market prediction 5 year

[Francist]

I'd like to share some old info, there are funds out there who are investing in Rolex & other hard to get watches.
A simple google search of thewatchfund will give u all u need to know. It's just crazy. Rolex is now an industrialized commodity & I think in the long run it's gonna go even higher.

In a sense, it's a much better underlying than exotic art pieces. You don't need curators & the upkeep costs are much lower. The pool of liquidity is much better, you can probably unload 50 pieces of Daytona strolling through any CBDs in the world iso trying to sell a Monet.

The basic infrastructures are already in place, you can trade any unworn Rolex within 5-20% spread. The public has been brainwashed by hype. Most people are not satisfied with only 1 watch, even those with a suitcase of watches are left wanting more.

Until we see a huge market crash it will keep rising. And from here to that point, I have no idea how much further it can go.

[skp]

I think people are just buying Rolexes to keep for themselves. All luxury goods have become harder to get due to increased demand. There are more people with more disposable income due to covid and lockdowns and travel restrictions. Nothing stays up for ever. Especially watches that last a long time. The games that AD’s are playing won’t last and they’ll change there tune when the time comes but it’ll always be business as usual for them.

[ELLimon]

Originally Posted by Francist

Most people are not satisfied with only 1 watch, even those with a suitcase of watches are left wanting more.

Until we see a huge market crash it will keep rising. And from here to that point, I have no idea how much further it can go.

LOL … that’s me.

[horseShu]

most members here have vested interests. therefore, biased. therefore, you won't be hearing anyone say that prices will drop like a rock in the next 5 yrs.

ah yes, prices are gonna keep rising year after year.
until it doesn't. nobody knows the future.

[dontbeshort]

Supply has already returned to normal in UK since BREXIT. AD cases are literally stuffed with Pandas, BLRO’s, BLNR’s , LV’s.
This barmy thread deserves a barmy answer. Moderators STOP these threads

[myanezt]

If the FED raises the interest rate in 2022 to relief the inflation, the real state have a correction and economy cool down I think will impact any kind a business, including watches

[majidessa]

SS Daytona will be priced at $150K and Hulk for $100K, people will be kicking themselves for not buying them cheap in 2021

Or a complete crash

[edisonstar23]

Originally Posted by majidessa

SS Daytona will be priced at $150K and Hulk for $100K, people will be kicking themselves for not buying them cheap in 2021

Or a complete crash

You can’t be serious right ? 100k for a hulk - I will be kicking myself for not spending 23k… I just can’t even justify 23k for it. But who knows


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[myanezt]

I think this graphic depicts the economy cycles very well... would be interesting check what was the values of the watches on those downfalls

[edisonstar23]

Originally Posted by horseShu

most members here have vested interests. therefore, biased. therefore, you won't be hearing anyone say that prices will drop like a rock in the next 5 yrs.

ah yes, prices are gonna keep rising year after year.
until it doesn't. nobody knows the future.

Agreed 100%… most of the members here already have a quite impressive collection which it’s natural for them to think and hope for the market to go on like this. Their 50-60k few years ago, their same collection its now 150k+.

But for a beginner like myself- I could only think and hope for a crash so I can acquire few pieces. Nobody knows the future!!! I’ve learned that patience its key in this hobby and paying what’s right for you and you are the most confortable with.


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[edisonstar23]

Originally Posted by myanezt

I think this graphic depicts the economy cycles very well... would be interesting check what was the values of the watches on those downfalls

Talking to dealer - he said that post 2008 there was a significant price reduction and the market was slow to say the least. People were forced to sell their collections to keep up with their house payments. I could see that happening again and the patient people will be able to capitalize on these downturns by acquiring assets.

Historically speaking “everything it’s on sale” when the economy as whole its hurting.


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[myanezt]

Originally Posted by edisonstar23

Talking to dealer - he said that post 2008 there was a significant price reduction and the market was slow to say the least. People were forced to sell their collections to keep up with their house payments. I could see that happening again and the patient people will be able to capitalize on these downturns by acquiring assets.

Historically speaking “everything it’s on sale” when the economy as whole its hurting.


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Yep, all this hype in the economy will continue with a down... working that way for the last 2 centuries.


On the other side, I think Rolex will slowly increase the production, a multinational company cannot live only of organically prices increase and right now there is a incredible market share that they are losing towards competitors.

[daveswordfish]

I loved my watches back in 2007 when I started collecting. I love them now. I’ll love them in 2 years, 5 years, etc. for me the market has been quite stable.


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[edisonstar23]

Originally Posted by daveswordfish

I loved my watches back in 2007 when I started collecting. I love them now. I’ll love them in 2 years, 5 years, etc. for me the market has been quite stable.


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Stable? How so? Most will argue otherwise


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[Tyler_Durden_8]

Yes and no. I think the caveat here is that we have never seen so much money printing. Forty percent of the USD were printed in the last twelve months. This is unprecendented and unchartered territory.

2008/09 post subprime mortgage never seen money printing like we have had in the past 18 months.

And if MMT and CBDC come into play with UBI leading the charge, we will probably see debt ceiling go out the window as Yellen had eluded to and money priniting ad infinitum.
It will be to anyone's guess to see what will happen to asset prices then.

But most importantly, enjoy what you buy and buy what you enjoy.

[Tyler_Durden_8]

Yes and no. I think the caveat here is that we have never seen so much money printing. Forty percent of the USD were printed in the last twelve months. This is unprecendented and unchartered territory.

2008/09 post subprime mortgage never seen money printing like we have had in the past 18 months.

And if MMT and CBDC come into play with UBI leading the charge, we will probably see debt ceiling go out the window as Yellen had eluded to and money priniting ad infinitum.
It will be to anyone's guess to see what will happen to asset prices then.

But most importantly, enjoy what you buy and buy what you enjoy.

[daveswordfish]

Originally Posted by edisonstar23

Stable? How so? Most will argue otherwise


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My point was simply that, for me, it’s about watches I love. Not appreciation nor investment. If the value goes up, or it goes down, the value to me remains.


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