Are we now wearing home down payments on our wrists ?

[Jsol]

Over the past couple of years I’ve been fortunate, and in some cases lucky enough to acquire some lust-worthy references. With the skyrocketing values, I’ve been getting increasingly nervous to wear my watches around town. If you think about it, we are sporting watches that are valued as much as cars or can be a down on properties! I live in San Francisco and we have crime just like most cities, but I never worried the way I do now. These days, my safe and not my wrist is seeing much more action. Anyone relate ?


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[911AP]

No. Get insurance at grey market prices. Problem solved.......

People are walking around wearing concept APs and RMs that are well over the price of 99% of APs for a long time now.

[macrowatch]

Jsol, I've started to have those same feelings as well. Just generally as you point out when the value you are tempting people with is approaching a property down payment, or the entire property itself!

In SF, I would even feel more that way given the change of the city. Generally no problems still psychologically for me for Manhattan and the parts of Virginia I have visited. But SF in 2021...yeah.

Also, I will confess that I'm not wealthy enough to where the premiums at full market value do not put a big bite out of my enjoyment. Besides, I'm in the camp that I want a watch to have been mine from the start and not pre-loved, so for all intents and purposes most of the watches I have are irreplaceable now.

[Neming]

Originally Posted by Jsol

Over the past couple of years I’ve been fortunate, and in some cases lucky enough to acquire some lust-worthy references. With the skyrocketing values, I’ve been getting increasingly nervous to wear my watches around town. If you think about it, we are sporting watches that are valued as much as cars or can be a down on properties! I live in San Francisco and we have crime just like most cities, but I never worried the way I do now. These days, my safe and not my wrist is seeing much more action. Anyone relate ?


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Feeling the same, especially here in Europe. I live in Switzerland so the streets are mostly safe but whenever I travel to other countries I start thinking "should I wear my watch or not?". I never had that feeling before (had AP on my wrist for the past 7 years).

My watches are insured at grey market value, but still I am puzzled when I read about gangs stealing watches in Paris (100 watches since Jan 2021) or St Tropez. I guess with so many youtubers talking about watch value, it is not going to stop. I miss the days when people didn't know any watch brands besides Rolex...

Even the SA at AP Fusterie admitted that some models are becoming "almost dangerous to wear" (ceramic QP, or 15407...)

Crazy days...

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[Sleepy996]

If I stop wearing a watch because of the value being above my comfort level it's gotta go.

[Token74]

Not something i particularly worry about. Maybe I’m misguided, but the average crook will surely just as likely to grab a £5k watch off my wrist as a £100k watch.

Slightly different if you are high profile and people know you regularly wear £100k on your wrist, professional muggers who steal to order may target you.

But for most of us, a mugger or pick-pocket will unlikely differentiate between a £5k target and a £100k target.

If anything, I still think an easy-to-spot and world renowned DJ is far more likely to be recognised and nabbed, than an AP or Patek that the vast majority of amateur scum won’t recognise.

Put it this way, very few people I know can recognise any watch, and the few that can sometimes comment on my Sea Dweller. They have never commented on my Patek or APs as they have never heard of them.

That said, I don’t live in a City, so maybe I’m seriously misjudging things.


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[911AP]

Originally Posted by macrowatch

Jsol, I've started to have those same feelings as well. Just generally as you point out when the value you are tempting people with is approaching a property down payment, or the entire property itself!

In SF, I would even feel more that way given the change of the city. Generally no problems still psychologically for me for Manhattan and the parts of Virginia I have visited. But SF in 2021...yeah.

Also, I will confess that I'm not wealthy enough to where the premiums at full market value do not put a big bite out of my enjoyment. Besides, I'm in the camp that I want a watch to have been mine from the start and not pre-loved, so for all intents and purposes most of the watches I have are irreplaceable now.

You can always buy from the grey market as new unopened just FYI......

I insure my watches all at new unworn grey market prices. I think I pay 300 a year in premiums for that. I'll pay 300 for peace of mind any day of the week so I can wear my watches without worry.

[JF100]

Move to Hong Kong. You can wear an infinite price tag on your wrist here and have 0 worries.

[macrowatch]

Originally Posted by 911AP

You can always buy from the grey market as new unopened just FYI......

I insure my watches all at new unworn grey market prices. I think I pay 300 a year in premiums for that. I'll pay 300 for peace of mind any day of the week so I can wear my watches without worry.

Yeah...so I've unfortunately had to come head to head with the fine print of a bad policy a number of years back for something of that low of a premium. You must have the good fortune of better underwriters than me.

Originally Posted by JF100

Move to Hong Kong. You can wear an infinite price tag on your wrist here and have 0 worries.

I do think we've gone from 0 worries to like 0.001 worries though. Practically no worries but at the same time not inconsequential.

[mrs_LA]

Even if the watch is insured on the wrist, surely no one wishes to have their watch taken away from them. Here in SoCal, even safe indoor spaces such has South Coast Plaza have become hunting grounds for thieves. People get followed to the parking lot and robbed. I’m with you in being hesitant.

[CoveWatch]

Originally Posted by mrs_LA

Even if the watch is insured on the wrist, surely no one wishes to have their watch taken away from them. Here in SoCal, even safe indoor spaces such has South Coast Plaza have become hunting grounds for thieves. People get followed to the parking lot and robbed. I’m with you in being hesitant.

I do watch what I wear depending on where I plan on going and even then, best to always be vigilant

[JF100]

[MACROWATCH]I do think we've gone from 0 worries to like 0.001 worries though. Practically no worries but at the same time not inconsequential. [/QUOTE]

hahaha. My worries in HK are 0! I think we are very lucky to live here and to be able to wear our watches unconcerned! Where is safer!? Even with 0.001 chance that implies you will lose a watch every 3 years to theft! (Calculation below)
I pose this question to you sir, do you believe in the next 3 years you will have a watch stolen in HK?

(Method) 0.01 = 1% = 3.6 days per year your watch is stolen (i.e. you lose 3.6 watches). So for a 0.001 worry (1/1000) you get 0.36 watches per year stolen i.e. 1 every 3 years.

The interesting question we should ask ourselves is - what are the real odds?

[gretch6364]

Originally Posted by JF100

[MACROWATCH]I do think we've gone from 0 worries to like 0.001 worries though. Practically no worries but at the same time not inconsequential.

hahaha. My worries in HK are 0! I think we are very lucky to live here and to be able to wear our watches unconcerned! Where is safer!? Even with 0.001 chance that implies you will lose a watch every 3 years to theft! (Calculation below)
I pose this question to you sir, do you believe in the next 3 years you will have a watch stolen in HK?

(Method) 0.01 = 1% = 3.6 days per year your watch is stolen (i.e. you lose 3.6 watches). So for a 0.001 worry (1/1000) you get 0.36 watches per year stolen i.e. 1 every 3 years.

The interesting question we should ask ourselves is - what are the real odds?

As long as you don't speak out politically...you should be safe ;-)

I have zero worry walking around Aspen.

[macrowatch]

Originally Posted by JF100

[MACROWATCH]I do think we've gone from 0 worries to like 0.001 worries though. Practically no worries but at the same time not inconsequential.

hahaha. My worries in HK are 0! I think we are very lucky to live here and to be able to wear our watches unconcerned! Where is safer!? Even with 0.001 chance that implies you will lose a watch every 3 years to theft! (Calculation below)
I pose this question to you sir, do you believe in the next 3 years you will have a watch stolen in HK?

(Method) 0.01 = 1% = 3.6 days per year your watch is stolen (i.e. you lose 3.6 watches). So for a 0.001 worry (1/1000) you get 0.36 watches per year stolen i.e. 1 every 3 years.

The interesting question we should ask ourselves is - what are the real odds?[/QUOTE]

Touché. Touché good sir. I got tired of typing more zeros. Lol.

@ gretch6364 I’m not 100% sure about Aspen. I understand Moose have picked up on the ceramic craze and might lift it off you if they see one.

[gretch6364]

Originally Posted by macrowatch

@ gretch6364 I’m not 100% sure about Aspen. I understand Moose have picked up on the ceramic craze and might lift it off you if they see one.

The impending bear invasion is most likely our biggest threat. The moose don't really have wrist, so not sure a watch would be much use to them...

https://www.aspentimes.com/news/with...r-this-summer/

[MichelleP]

I live in SF as well and even though my watches are insured it is only for retail value. If I am walking around the city I will wear a less expensive watch, Tudor or Omega, that can be easily replaced.

[IR201]

I wish it was as easy as insurance. If it stopped at get insurance, get your watch taken, get reimbursed at re-buy value, no problem. But the real issue is that you choose to wear something which increases the chances of your experiencing a violent and potentially deadly encounter. By how much it increases those chances are up for debate, but it is an increase entirely of our own creation. So we would have to live with that.

[shafran]

I had a guy grab a shopping bag I was holding. When I went to block him, he took a knife and cut my hublot off my wrist. I chased him, even though my wrist was bleeding and he had a knife. He disappeared into thin air. Obviously a pro.

[Fersanchezc]

Things have been crazy lately, heard of 4 cases just a couple days apart. You cannot be overconfident anymore.



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[gretch6364]

Sad state of affairs…glad none of you have been seriously hurt!

[JF100]

Originally Posted by shafran

I had a guy grab a shopping bag I was holding. When I went to block him, he took a knife and cut my hublot off my wrist. I chased him, even though my wrist was bleeding and he had a knife. He disappeared into thin air. Obviously a pro.

Wow... cutting the wrist. That is literally out of hand - pun intended. Sorry that this happened to you brother.

[Fishrus]

Wow reading threads like these makes me appreciate my country all the more where crimes are almost non existent. When I'm overseas i wear my Casio to prevent these things from happening.

We are all in this hobby to enjoy our watches and wear them but the fact is that many of these watches are becoming ridiculously expensive. I'm sure the average criminal will recognize even the non mainstream brands like APs and PPs sooner or later so wear them only in the safer part of town.

[Jsol]

This is the dark side of what was once a nerdy but lux habit go almost mainstream. The sheer value of just one piece is more than my entire collection was worth 4-5 years ago. That coupled with Instagram making it much easier for folks to now recognize a watch grail. I have to admit my own culpability in that I love posting on the gram! Certainly “uptown problems” but it does sadden me that I think twice everyday about the risks.


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[AshAP]

The problem is that there are some total psychopaths out there who apparently have no fear of being arrested and are therefore quite happy to carry and use weapons.


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[karasus]

Originally Posted by AshAP

The problem is that there are some total psychopaths out there who apparently have no fear of being arrested and are therefore quite happy to carry and use weapons.


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After talking with the police and getting more information about the profile of some perpetrators, I disagree that they are psychos.

Most of the people who do these muggings come from socially disfavoured backgrounds and don't have a fixed address or a longterm place they call "home".

Because of the shit situation they are in, they really have nothing to lose in their mind. The risk of getting arrested doesn't seem too big a deal if you are already at the rock bottom of the social ladder.

I think they would be just normal people if the were in a better environment. But maybe that is wishful thinking on my part and that I like to believe in the better nature of humanity.

[macrowatch]

Originally Posted by karasus

After talking with the police and getting more information about the profile of some perpetrators, I disagree that they are psychos.

Most of the people who do these muggings come from socially disfavoured backgrounds and don't have a fixed address or a longterm place they call "home".

Because of the shit situation they are in, they really have nothing to lose in their mind. The risk of getting arrested doesn't seem too big a deal if you are already at the rock bottom of the social ladder.

I think they would be just normal people if the were in a better environment. But maybe that is wishful thinking on my part and that I like to believe in the better nature of humanity.

I think, if i can project onto the OP, that's the essence of this thread. A 5k watch or even a 10k item may not be worth the risk. But at 100k, 200k...a lot of temptation and risk that normally wouldn't be there is now there.

[RolexZen]

I don’t believe that it’s economically disadvantaged, pseudo-homeless otherwise normal dudes that are targeting high-end watches because of inflated secondary market prices.

[RolexZen]

Originally Posted by Token74

the average crook will surely just as likely to grab a £5k watch off my wrist as a £100k watch.

That’s why I wear a blingy Invicta on my left wrist with my sleeve slightly rolled up, and keep my AP tucked under my right sleeve. :-D

I also keep a fat wallet full of $1’s and loyalty cards in my back pocket.

j/k

[fsprow]

I find the answer is long sleeved shirts, very light fabric in the summer.

Add insurance, no worries here.

[GS93108]

A stetson and the inference therein is all that's necessary. Unfortunately that look doesn't suit me.