PP and the SS Problem

[The Argonaut]

Originally Posted by rolexpatek363

PP and Rolex are the two dominant watch brands. I suspect they know what they are doing. Is your business bigger than theirs?

I work for Uncle Sam in a very different kind of business. I didn't say PP and Rolex didn't know what they were doing. I simply challenged the assumption that just because they are top of the heap right now, they'll stay there, or they are somehow omniscient. No business is. Period. Also, look at the history of both brands and both have taken risks and knocks along the road. It takes great skill to get in pole position, and it's even harder to stay there.

[The Argonaut]

Originally Posted by Russell996

I ordered and then waited 8 years for my first PP. It was also my first purchase of any sort from the AD and all I needed was patience - if you want a piece that other very good clients also want you need to wait your turn. Nautilus has been in production for 42 years and will be in production for many more.

Thanks Russell. Indeed, patience is my MO for a PP 5164 or 5167 purchase. I'm excited about it, and know it may take a while but will be all the sweeter when I get one. It'll be quite something. PP are just so exceptional, like ALS.

[RussW]

Originally Posted by Russell996

I ordered and then waited 8 years for my first PP. It was also my first purchase of any sort from the AD and all I needed was patience - if you want a piece that other very good clients also want you need to wait your turn. Nautilus has been in production for 42 years and will be in production for many more.

You did very well there Russell, especially as it was a 5131. The watch market is very different now to what it was 10 years ago though. Some guys can’t even get on the list for a 5711, let alone a 5131, without some sort of bundling condition. There are no doubt some ADs out there that don’t attach conditions, but sadly for a lot of people it isn’t as easy as just waiting it out.

[Russell996]

Originally Posted by RussW

You did very well there Russell, especially as it was a 5131. The watch market is very different now to what it was 10 years ago though. Some guys can’t even get on the list for a 5711, let alone a 5131, without some sort of bundling condition. There are no doubt some ADs out there that don’t attach conditions, but sadly for a lot of people it isn’t as easy as just waiting it out.

Possibly it is different, possibly not. Currently we are in a bubble, 2-3 years time who knows what the position will be and let alone in 8 years? I would still recommend getting to know your local AD before you even start to think about ordering a piece. They get many cold calls a week, it is simply too easy for them to treat a new customer walking in off the street in the same way. Build a relationship - you never know you might get lucky!

[RussW]

Originally Posted by Russell996

Possibly it is different, possibly not. Currently we are in a bubble, 2-3 years time who knows what the position will be and let alone in 8 years? I would still recommend getting to know your local AD before you even start to think about ordering a piece. They get many cold calls a week, it is simply too easy for them to treat a new customer walking in off the street in the same way. Build a relationship - you never know you might get lucky!

Agreed. Building a good relationship is invaluable

[BillA]

I can personally tell you that supply of certain PP SS models in the US is less than Europe or UK. I put my name on a waitlist at 2 AD’s in the northeast for a 5167a in early 2018. The first AD called me in May and the second in early December with the watch. I never bought from them before, I was really shocked to get the call.

[JR16]

Originally Posted by RussW

Agreed. Building a good relationship is invaluable

+1


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[The Argonaut]

Originally Posted by BillA

I can personally tell you that supply of certain PP SS models in the US is less than Europe or UK. I put my name on a waitlist at 2 AD’s in the northeast for a 5167a in early 2018. The first AD called me in May and the second in early December with the watch. I never bought from them before, I was really shocked to get the call.

Thanks BillA.


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[kultschar]

I was extremely lucky to get a 5711 in 2017 as a first time buyer.

Ive been a good boy and not flipped the watch (never intended to as I love it) and hoping the same AD will get me a 5164 in 2019 - fingers crossed!!

Truth is I would never have a Nautilus in a million years if it wasnt for a ex-member here who helped! Its crazy times but is what it is!

[thomaspp]

Originally Posted by kultschar

I was extremely lucky to get a 5711 in 2017 as a first time buyer.

Ive been a good boy and not flipped the watch (never intended to as I love it) and hoping the same AD will get me a 5164 in 2019 - fingers crossed!!

Truth is I would never have a Nautilus in a million years if it wasnt for a ex-member here who helped! Its crazy times but is what it is!

Very nice! You need to reward the AD and buy a 5170 now! Lol just kidding and enjoy!


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[The Argonaut]

Originally Posted by kultschar

I was extremely lucky to get a 5711 in 2017 as a first time buyer.

Ive been a good boy and not flipped the watch (never intended to as I love it) and hoping the same AD will get me a 5164 in 2019 - fingers crossed!!

Truth is I would never have a Nautilus in a million years if it wasnt for a ex-member here who helped! Its crazy times but is what it is!

A 5711 as a first time! Impressive stuff indeed. You must be acquainted with Greek Gods (of Swiss descent).


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[kultschar]

Originally Posted by The Argonaut

A 5711 as a first time! Impressive stuff indeed. You must be acquainted with Greek Gods (of Swiss descent).


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It was a fluke but thanks to a member here. Although I paid for it I felt like I had won the lottery! It was a surreal moment picking it up due to the current crazy situation!

[The Argonaut]

Originally Posted by kultschar

It was a fiuke but thanks to a member here. Although I paid for it I felt like I had won the lottery! It was a surreal moment picking it up

I look forward to that day. I’ve been singularly impressed with PP for many years. They appear to be very disciplined in how they manage their inventory, and how and when they expand their collection. I’ve handled many of their watches, and absolutely aspire to own one. I’m seriously looking at the 5164 or 5167. On the other hand, I love the 5227. Incredible pieces.


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[kultschar]

Originally Posted by thomaspp

Very nice! You need to reward the AD and buy a 5170 now! Lol just kidding and enjoy!


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Lol - wish I could

[kultschar]

Originally Posted by The Argonaut

I look forward to that day. I’ve been singularly impressed with PP for many years. They appear to be very disciplined in how they manage their inventory, and how and when they expand their collection. I’ve handled many of their watches, and absolutely aspire to own one. I’m seriously looking at the 5164 or 5167. On the other hand, I love the 5227. Incredible pieces.


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Good luck with the hunt! Im sure you will get there!!!

It was the crazy UK Rolex scenario that actually pushed me to PP (admired but out of my range). My Rolex AD lost its status and I was in limbo, could no longer get any of the new models etc and I became disillusioned with the brand. I decided to consolidate to a 5711 Nautilus and 5167 Aquanaut which at the time was hard to find but not near impossible like now.

Of course little did I know it was only a few months later that PP sports would go the same way as the Ceramic Daytona. I timed it just right and got both before things went nuts!!

One things for sure - im not letting go of the 5167 until the 5164 is guaranteed!!

[The Argonaut]

Originally Posted by kultschar

Good luck with the hunt! Im sure you will get there!!!

It was the crazy UK Rolex scenario that actually pushed me to PP (admired but out of my range). My Rolex AD lost its status and I was in limbo, could no longer get any of the new models etc and I became disillusioned with the brand. I decided to consolidate to a 5711 Nautilus and 5167 Aquanaut which at the time was hard to find but not near impossible like now.

Of course little did I know it was only a few months later that PP sports would go the same way as the Ceramic Daytona. I timed it just right and got both before things went nuts!!

One things for sure - im not letting go of the 5167 until the 5164 is guaranteed!!

That's just wonderful. You got into PP as a result of Rolex. Brilliant, and you have a 5711 and 5167. Damn.

[appa666]

As mentioned above PP is not focused on SS sports watch, so I dont think they care about this SS supply demand thing at all.

The Complication and Grand Complication is what PP truly is about, and for consumers who are buying those, I dont think its a problem to get a SS sports model for them, its a you ask I got it for you situation. I had conversation with my local AD, what they said is for Complication and Grand Complication collectors who are the real "volume" customers for PP, arent that interested into Nautilus until 5740 released. It was never a problem for real money spender to obtain a SS model, and those are the people PP who views most valued. We hate to hear that but its a fact, you can expect to be treated same as a million dollar spender arent you?

A less formal business casual world does drive demand up for SS watch, but more importantly SS watches are more affordable, especially when the economics is recovering from 08' crisis, people got cash in their hand.

Maybe a bad example would be in wristwatch world, PP is like Ferrari for automobiles. When people got money, they found an "affordable" line which fits today's trend as well(business casual), of course this will create a shortage.
Personally myself I dont blame PP with limited supply, its a free market, every consumers have right to choose what they spend their money on. If waiting time/qualification(bundle sales) is an issue for you, all i can say is your willingness to pay doesnt meet today's market. If no one willing to do bundle deals (new cusomters) we should see Nautilus sitting on shelf. However, it doesnt so that means there is plenty people have a higher WTP than you do so certainly they get the watch and you dont.

I dont like this situation cuz it cost me more money to collect, but its just a fact so had to suck it up.

[WatchLurv]

Think 5131 watch will be discontinued - All the back orders for it must be insane. Owning one is like winning the lottery.

[cascavel]

Originally Posted by The Argonaut

If new PP buyers cannot buy their watch of choice from an AD because it's not available, and even if it is, its only available to those with an AD relationship, then PP loses a buyer--and potentially long term client. This does impact them. My wife was stunned to learn that one cannot simply go and buy almost any Nautilus and Aquanaut watch, even if one waited six months. We were chatting last night to find an equivalent market, and apart from haute couture clothing, could find no modern equivalent.

I guess you've never heard of an Hermes Birkin bag. That is the model for all retail rarity.

[cascavel]

Can't PP continue doing exactly what they've been doing, which is adding complications to the existing models a la the 5198 or going precious metal like the 5168 and increasing their margins that way? Why increase production of a low price/profit watch like the 5711a or 5167a when you can add a gold case and charge an extra 20K and the watch is still basically unavailable?

[WatchLurv]

Originally Posted by cascavel

I guess you've never heard of an Hermes Birkin bag. That is the model for all retail rarity.

Especially the ones with special material such as croc or snake skin and colours making them a rarity and commands prices higher than MSRP.

[The Argonaut]

Originally Posted by appa666

As mentioned above PP is not focused on SS sports watch, so I dont think they care about this SS supply demand thing at all.



The Complication and Grand Complication is what PP truly is about, and for consumers who are buying those, I dont think its a problem to get a SS sports model for them, its a you ask I got it for you situation. I had conversation with my local AD, what they said is for Complication and Grand Complication collectors who are the real "volume" customers for PP, arent that interested into Nautilus until 5740 released. It was never a problem for real money spender to obtain a SS model, and those are the people PP who views most valued. We hate to hear that but its a fact, you can expect to be treated same as a million dollar spender arent you?



A less formal business casual world does drive demand up for SS watch, but more importantly SS watches are more affordable, especially when the economics is recovering from 08' crisis, people got cash in their hand.



Maybe a bad example would be in wristwatch world, PP is like Ferrari for automobiles. When people got money, they found an "affordable" line which fits today's trend as well(business casual), of course this will create a shortage.

Personally myself I dont blame PP with limited supply, its a free market, every consumers have right to choose what they spend their money on. If waiting time/qualification(bundle sales) is an issue for you, all i can say is your willingness to pay doesnt meet today's market. If no one willing to do bundle deals (new cusomters) we should see Nautilus sitting on shelf. However, it doesnt so that means there is plenty people have a higher WTP than you do so certainly they get the watch and you dont.



I dont like this situation cuz it cost me more money to collect, but its just a fact so had to suck it up.

Indeed. A first class analysis, which reminds me of a conversation with a colleague who’s genuinely cheesed off because he can’t just buy a 5711. I advised him that PP isn’t an SS watch maker, but very a maker of high end complications. Patience is the order of the day.


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[The Argonaut]

Originally Posted by WatchLurv

Especially the ones with special material such as croc or snake skin and colours making them a rarity and commands prices higher than MSRP.

The wife would like one of those!!


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[77T]

I can’t say what PP thinks at top level about imbalances. I don’t even think a long-cycle manufacturing process like PP or other Swiss watch brands is malleable to fix an imbalance in one product choice without harming the balance of a cross-elastic product.

Manufacturers who make expensive low volume products and tightly control their retailers are prone to forecasting errors to begin with. They get myopia more often than mass-market producers.

The only way out (if they even wish to change) is to embrace “accurate response”, an approach to the entire forecasting, planning, and production process. This has been in use for the past 20+ years so was always an option open to PP had they seen this coming.

I believe that companies can improve their forecasts and align their planning processes to minimize the impact of inaccurate forecasts. But fickle demand is as fickle does. Much of the imbalance is FOMO driven nowadays. Buyers paying premiums in the secondary markets is a natural market reaction to flash demand spikes. And that demand could evaporate before a long-cycle manufacturer can effectively respond.

The ramp-up takes too long to increase production without scavenging resources from another product choice. I’ve even seen it in markets as flexible as long term bond yield inversions. Maybe “do nothing” (which is the first principle to flash market reactions) is PP’s best path?

So, in the final analysis, price action is the only fast and cost-effective tool.

Just keep on plugging away at their current production pace and product mix - and let the demand settle out in the secondary market rather than chasing their own tail.


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[The Argonaut]

[QUOTE=77T;9178530]I can’t say what PP thinks at top level about imbalances. I don’t even think a long-cycle manufacturing process like PP or other Swiss watch brands is malleable to fix an imbalance in one product choice without harming the balance of a cross-elastic product.

Manufacturers who make expensive low volume products and tightly control their retailers are prone to forecasting errors to begin with. They get myopia more often than mass-market producers.

The only way out (if they even wish to change) is to embrace “accurate response”, an approach to the entire forecasting, planning, and production process. This has been in use for the past 20+ years so was always an option open to PP had they seen this coming.

I believe that companies can improve their forecasts and align their planning processes to minimize the impact of inaccurate forecasts. But fickle demand is as fickle does. Much of the imbalance is FOMO driven nowadays. Buyers paying premiums in the secondary markets is a natural market reaction to flash demand spikes. And that demand could evaporate before a long-cycle manufacturer can effectively respond.

The ramp-up takes too long to increase production without scavenging resources from another product choice. I’ve even seen it in markets as flexible as long term bond yield inversions. Maybe “do nothing” (which is the first principle to flash market reactions) is PP’s best path?

So, in the final analysis, price action is the only fast and cost-effective tool.

Just keep on plugging away at their current production pace and product mix - and let the demand settle out in the secondary market rather than chasing their own tail.

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Brilliant. I don’t think PP even recognizes the SS shortage as a problem. It’s just business as usual. If I worked for them, I wouldn’t consider it an issue. The shortage simply reflects current tastes and trends in one part of their product line, and which might change.


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[KetaPatek]

new member here. went over to chrono24 and the gray prices are mostly silly. and i agree, if there wasn't a shortage, the ss demand overall would be far softer.

let's wait for the next crash, which will make 2008 look like Disneyland (all by design).

disclaimer: on the hunt for white gold 5712 = the pm version of the ss.

[77T]

Originally Posted by The Argonaut

Brilliant. I don’t think PP even recognizes the SS shortage as a problem. It’s just business as usual. If I worked for them, I wouldn’t consider it an issue. The shortage simply reflects current tastes and trends in one part of their product line, and which might change.


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They are more than aware in my opinion, they are successful and market wise.

I agree they should do nothing while some SS buyers obsess.



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[gmstevenson]

Originally Posted by KetaPatek

disclaimer: on the hunt for white gold 5712 = the pm version of the ss.

PSA: I saw a WG 5712 in the display at Kern's Jewelers in Burlingame, CA a few weeks ago. Not sure if it sold but maybe worth a call.

[SL BRABUS]

Originally Posted by The Argonaut

Hi Brabus,

Good points. I'm in no rush.

If that the case & you no rush.... 18 to 24 months..... Time do fly when you not thinking about it......

I say get on the list and put a deposit down....

Make sure you have a promise date from your AD when your watch will arrive.....

If they can't give you a promise date then find another AD.......

[Calatrava r]

I think we will see the gray market premium start to decline. It has been flat for a while so a top has most likely been made. I think the Rolex SS sports offerings are more interesting and updated from the aging PP designs and movements.