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Old 17 March 2020, 07:26 AM   #2251
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I guess they are all lying to use then. I suppose you personally expect 3000-5000 dead Americans per day in the coming months? You must.
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Old 17 March 2020, 07:28 AM   #2252
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A document has just been released and being reported on Sky News that a good case estimate of the deaths from the virus in the UK is 250,000.

I'm in shock.
I am too, not just about this, but the fact that UK authorities seem to want a larger number of people to become infected in order to develop "herd immunity".

Essentially letting the virus run it's course.

"To avoid a second peak in the winter, Vallance said the U.K. would suppress the virus “but not get rid of it completely,” while focusing on protecting vulnerable groups, such as the elderly. In the meantime, other people would get sick. But since the virus causes milder illness in younger age groups, most would recover and subsequently be immune to the virus. This “herd immunity” would reduce transmission in the event of a winter resurgence. On Sky News, Vallance said that “probably about 60 percent” of people would need to be infected to achieve herd immunity."

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/a...ohnson/608065/

It seems like the UK plan is not to try to avoid infections but to ensure as many people as possible are infected to achieve this so called "herd immunity". I think the inevitable deaths are a high price to pay for this.

The UK population is around 66 million. If as Vallance says about 60 percent become infected, as needed to achieve herd immunity it means that 36 million become infected. A very conservative estimate is a 1% death rate so you would expect 360000 deaths by following this "herd immunity" plan. In that case 250 thousand seems on the low side.
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Old 17 March 2020, 07:31 AM   #2253
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What Iíve read is that YOU will get the virus from contact from hand to mouth from touching infected places. So if you wore a mask but didnít wash youíre hands when you got home, then itís pointless.

Iím guessing the mask MAY be a safeguard but they say infected people wearing them is more important.

Perhaps in crowds it could make a difference.

This is what I read:
I'm an ER physician and the above answer is pretty good. If you are out on a walk in your neighborhood you don't need a mask. If you have to go out in public (grocery store, pharmacy, etc.) I would wear one. A regular surgical mask should suffice (according to WHO and CDC) but if all you have is N95, go for it. Don't forget to WASH YOUR HANDS!!!
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Old 17 March 2020, 07:32 AM   #2254
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What?

Just about every post from him has been as scary as one can read IMO. Iím simply asking his opinion on the numbers. He seems to be in full agreement with the worst case scenario predictions so I am asking if that includes the death toll numbers. Thatís all.
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Old 17 March 2020, 07:32 AM   #2255
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Old 17 March 2020, 07:41 AM   #2256
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None of us, including you, knows where this pandemic is headed. But I doubt that we will be looking on the sunny side of this event in two weeks. No person in the medical field thinks so. I might have missed it if you’ve posted this earlier, but what qualifies you as an expert on medicine, politics and the media?
You missed absolutely nothing. I’m an expert at none of these things. I’m am an expert at residential HVAC and that has nothing to do with medicine, politics or media. However I follow politics and media very closely and have many observations. Especially on media.

You on the other hand have claimed to be very knowledgeable with medicine and I very much believe you. I appreciate your thoughts on all of this however you also have been predicting the absolute worst on this crisis since the beginning. I’m simply asking you (and have a couple of other times as well with no answer) your opinion on the death toll for Americans over the next year. Thats all.
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Old 17 March 2020, 07:43 AM   #2257
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This thread just keeps getting better
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Old 17 March 2020, 07:44 AM   #2258
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After watching the daily WH press brief regarding the virus, I'm getting the distinct impression that we're headed for a mandatory self-quarantine in the USA.
The tone of the administration has changed with each passing day, more and more states are closing schools, restaurants, bars, etc...

I believe this is a lead-up to the government declaring a 2 week in home quarantine. I personally wouldn't be surprised to see this happen by the end of the week.
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Old 17 March 2020, 07:46 AM   #2259
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I am too, not just about this, but the fact that UK authorities seem to want a larger number of people to become infected in order to develop "herd immunity".

Essentially letting the virus run it's course.

"To avoid a second peak in the winter, Vallance said the U.K. would suppress the virus “but not get rid of it completely,” while focusing on protecting vulnerable groups, such as the elderly. In the meantime, other people would get sick. But since the virus causes milder illness in younger age groups, most would recover and subsequently be immune to the virus. This “herd immunity” would reduce transmission in the event of a winter resurgence. On Sky News, Vallance said that “probably about 60 percent” of people would need to be infected to achieve herd immunity."

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/a...ohnson/608065/

It seems like the UK plan is not to try to avoid infections but to ensure as many people as possible are infected to achieve this so called "herd immunity". I think the inevitable deaths are a high price to pay for this.

The UK population is around 66 million. If as Vallance says about 60 percent become infected, as needed to achieve herd immunity it means that 36 million become infected. A very conservative estimate is a 1% death rate so you would expect 360000 deaths by following this "herd immunity" plan. In that case 250 thousand seems on the low side.
I believe the majority of us are going to catch this at some point or other. It’s inevitable. More to the point, I assume that’s what the physicians advising the government believe. Certainly I can’t see any possible way of getting rid of the virus before it infects most of us.

If you accept that premise, then trying to shield the most vulnerable for as long as possible seems to make sense.

Personally I also think 1% will turn out to be an overestimate for the mortality rate, but I’m not married to the idea of arguing the toss since we’re all guessing on that score.
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Old 17 March 2020, 07:50 AM   #2260
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After watching the daily WH press brief regarding the virus, I'm getting the distinct impression that we're headed for a mandatory self-quarantine in the USA.
The tone of the administration has changed with each passing day, more and more states are closing schools, restaurants, bars, etc...

I believe this is a lead-up to the government declaring a 2 week in home quarantine. I personally wouldn't be surprised to see this happen by the end of the week.
Iím getting that feeling too. If they announce that the run on the grocery stores will be massive.
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Old 17 March 2020, 07:52 AM   #2261
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You missed absolutely nothing. Iím an expert at none of these things. Iím am an expert at residential HVAC and that has nothing to do with medicine, politics or media. However I follow politics and media very closely and have many observations. Especially on media.

You however have claimed to be very knowledgeable on medicine and I Very much believe you. You also have been predicting the absolute worst on this crisis since the beginning. Iím simply asking you (and have a couple of other times as well with no answer) your opinion on the death toll for Americans over the next year. Thats all.
he said in the very post you quoted that nobody knows where this is headed (which is obvious).

it's a bit strange you keep asking him to make some kind of formal death-toll prediction.
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Old 17 March 2020, 07:57 AM   #2262
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he said in the very post you quoted that nobody knows where this is headed (which is obvious).

it's a bit strange you keep asking him to make some kind of formal death-toll prediction.
Perhaps you’re right however he absolutely has said things are going to be as bad as can be and has been saying that from the beginning. I was merely asking him if he believed all of it.

I agree nobody knows. Thats what I believe. Anyway thanks man. I won’t ask him again.
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Old 17 March 2020, 08:01 AM   #2263
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I believe the majority of us are going to catch this at some point or other. Itís inevitable. More to the point, I assume thatís what the physicians advising the government believe. Certainly I canít see any possible way of getting rid of the virus before it infects most of us.

If you accept that premise, then trying to shield the most vulnerable for as long as possible seems to make sense.

Personally I also think 1% will turn out to be an overestimate for the mortality rate, but Iím not married to the idea of arguing the toss since weíre all guessing on that score.
Wow the UK method seems like a potentially disastrous approach. Even with the best implemented social distancing the majority of a population will be exposed at some point, until a vaccine is available to confer immunity. At least this is the case once you have pockets of community transmission. The idea isn't to decrease the total numbers of infected, but the numbers of infected at any given time. Even countries like Singapore and Taiwan who have been remarkably effective at limiting numbers aren't immune to an outbreak. They will be better situated to contain it. But the UK is setting itself up for a massive die-off as far as I can tell. Why wouldn't they want to spread this out over a longer period of time?

Regarding the US response, too little too late to avoid deaths that perhaps could have been prevented if we started these measures a week or two ago. But better late than never, and at least the majority of Americans are on board now I think. If not, they will be when they see a saturated health care system that cannot cope with the number of sick and dying.

Let's hope that when this is said and done the world at large has learned its lesson regarding pandemic preparedness.
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Old 17 March 2020, 08:02 AM   #2264
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the Coronavirus outbreak thread

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Iím getting that feeling too. If they announce that the run on the grocery stores will be massive.


It would be horrific. The stores are already low on stock. Personally I donít see it happening BUT I wouldnít be shocked either. Disclaimer: I donít have a clue
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Old 17 March 2020, 08:03 AM   #2265
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Let's all take a time out and watch Arnold and his donkeys give us a pep talk.

I love it!

Wish my donkeys were as well behaved.

The video is about half way down the page.

Stay safe.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/16/enter...cli/index.html
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Old 17 March 2020, 08:04 AM   #2266
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Personally I also think 1% will turn out to be an overestimate for the mortality rate, but Iím not married to the idea of arguing the toss since weíre all guessing on that score.
Yes, let's hope for the best.
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Old 17 March 2020, 08:05 AM   #2267
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Here in the Bay Area they issued a shelter in place order effective for six counties and approximately seven million residents.
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Old 17 March 2020, 08:07 AM   #2268
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the Coronavirus outbreak thread

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I think the two and three week timelines on new restrictions are just to give us time to process this pandemic before we are told the truth that our lives will be severely disrupted for six to twelve months.


Possibly so - I donít know if there is a social psychologist on the Pence team but that is the advice I think one would privide.

I believe the more practical reason is because Congress hasnít passed the bill yet. Once they do, and the President signs it, then the full enchilada may get served.

If any drastic measures stirred up voters and donors, then the final bill could stall.


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Old 17 March 2020, 08:12 AM   #2269
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Wow the UK method seems like a potentially disastrous approach. Even with the best implemented social distancing the majority of a population will be exposed at some point, until a vaccine is available to confer immunity. At least this is the case once you have pockets of community transmission. The idea isn't to decrease the total numbers of infected, but the numbers of infected at any given time. Even countries like Singapore and Taiwan who have been remarkably effective at limiting numbers aren't immune to an outbreak. They will be better situated to contain it. But the UK is setting itself up for a massive die-off as far as I can tell. Why wouldn't they want to spread this out over a longer period of time?

Regarding the US response, too little too late to avoid deaths that perhaps could have been prevented if we started these measures a week or two ago. But better late than never, and at least the majority of Americans are on board now I think. If not, they will be when they see a saturated health care system that cannot cope with the number of sick and dying.

Let's hope that when this is said and done the world at large has learned its lesson regarding pandemic preparedness.
I believe they are trying to do exactly that. Just this evening itís been announced that if anybody has a cough or fever then their entire household should lockdown for two weeks.
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Old 17 March 2020, 08:14 AM   #2270
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Here in the Bay Area they issued a shelter in place order effective for six counties and approximately seven million residents.
Hang in there and be safe.

Might want to watch this clip of Arnold for some levity.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/16/enter...cli/index.html
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Old 17 March 2020, 08:49 AM   #2271
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Just about every post from him has been as scary as one can read IMO.
I think if you go back and read every one of my posts, I have expressed fear about the outcomes of this pandemic, and said that it is the scariest situation I've seen since becoming a physician in 1982. But I've not claimed to know how many people will be afflicted or killed by the virus.

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You on the other hand have claimed to be very knowledgeable with medicine and I very much believe you. I appreciate your thoughts on all of this however you also have been predicting the absolute worst on this crisis since the beginning. .
I'm as knowledgeable as any other fellow of the American College of Emergency Physicians about the aspects of the pandemic that have been made public. But I have NOT been predicting the absolute worst. I've only said that this crisis has the POTENTIAL to be very serious, and that rosy predictions of minimal problems by many at the beginning of the pandemic were almost certainly wrong.
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Old 17 March 2020, 09:00 AM   #2272
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I think if you go back and read every one of my posts, I have expressed fear about the outcomes of this pandemic, and said that it is the scariest situation I've seen since becoming a physician in 1982. But I've not claimed to know how many people will be afflicted or killed by the virus.

I'm as knowledgeable as any other fellow of the American College of Emergency Physicians about the aspects of the pandemic that have been made public. But I have NOT been predicting the absolute worst. I've only said that this crisis has the POTENTIAL to be very serious, and that rosy predictions of minimal problems by many at the beginning of the pandemic were almost certainly wrong.
Fair enough Dr. Chitwood. I did say it was my opinion your posts were scary and I also said I believe you to be an expert in medicine as well as value your input.

I have been merely asking your opinion on the possible death toll in America because you have in fact been giving your opinion on other aspects of this crisis.
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Old 17 March 2020, 09:05 AM   #2273
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A document has just been released and being reported on Sky News that a good case estimate of the deaths from the virus in the UK is 250,000.

I'm in shock.
I just donít believe this number, I believe you heard it but I canít believe a first-world nation like the UK would suffer this much. Modern medicine has eliminated Polio, TB, even cured some forms of cancer. I donít believe with all the resources and knowledge at our disposal any modern country would suffer this much from an influenza. If this were some laboratory-created super microbe (think of the movie ďI am LegendĒ) maybe, but I honestly feel with public measures and medicinal experts working around the clock it will not get this bad.
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Old 17 March 2020, 09:07 AM   #2274
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Someone PM’d me bringing up the Spanish Flu in 1915 which killed hundreds of thousands. That was 1915, we have progressed a great deal in medicine in the last 100 years.
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Old 17 March 2020, 09:07 AM   #2275
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Bad news- over 600 new US cases. Good news- that’s “only” a 16% increase.

Half of the US cases are in three states- NY, Cali and Washington. Really, it’s mostly NYC, Seattle and SF. The rest of the country is in much better shape.

Say a prayer for the Italians.

Two countries, PRC and S. Korea, are reporting drops in active cases. I believe the numbers from S. Korea.
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Old 17 March 2020, 09:07 AM   #2276
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Fair enough Dr. Chitwood. I did say it was my opinion your posts were scary.
How could his posts be anything other than scary? No state, no country, no area will escape this disaster. There is nothing unique about American lungs. The response to this pandemic in the USA, the UK and, to a lesser extent, Europe has been arrogant and negligent. Thousands or tens of thousands of your countrymen and mine will die. Your life will change, as will everybody else's. Surely "scary" is just the new normal?
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Old 17 March 2020, 09:12 AM   #2277
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How could his posts be anything other than scary? No state, no country, no area will escape this disaster. There is nothing unique about American lungs. The response to this pandemic in the USA, the UK and, to a lesser extent, Europe has been arrogant and negligent. Thousands or tens of thousands of your countrymen and mine will die. Your life will change, as will everybody else's. Surely "scary" is just the new normal?
And with that I think Iíll take another break from this thread.
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Old 17 March 2020, 09:13 AM   #2278
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Someone PMíd me bringing up the Spanish Flu in 1915 which killed hundreds of thousands. That was 1915, we have progressed a great deal in medicine in the last 100 years.
It was 1918-1920 and killed tens of millions, without the assistance/existence of international airlines.
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Old 17 March 2020, 09:15 AM   #2279
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I just donít believe this number, I believe you heard it but I canít believe a first-world nation like the UK would suffer this much. Modern medicine has eliminated Polio, TB, even cured some forms of cancer. I donít believe with all the resources and knowledge at our disposal any modern country would suffer this much from an influenza. If this were some laboratory-created super microbe (think of the movie ďI am LegendĒ) maybe, but I honestly feel with public measures and medicinal experts working around the clock it will not get this bad.
Ok, do you believe this?:



https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

1543 cases and 55 deaths.

Given the UK policy on this it is perfectly reasonable to expect them to have tens of millions of cases and it follows that it is perfectly reasonable to expect hundreds of thousands of deaths. Let's hope a vaccine is developed before that happens, there is promising work being done in that direction.
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Old 17 March 2020, 09:17 AM   #2280
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It was 1918-1920 and killed tens of millions, without the assistance/existence of international airlines.
And I was there !!!
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