Talking Stocks 2.0

[espanol]

Originally Posted by Baco Noir

I retired in March with a 60/40 mix and about 10% in cash. The cash was to live on while the market corrected if needed, but more I’m thinking of moving to a 70/30 or event 80/20 mix since bonds have not performed in inverse to the stock market. Thoughts for someone who just retired during this show?

DCA 6 of the 10 percent, leave 4 for 12 months of non-market linked safe withdrawals (if needed)

[330ci]

Originally Posted by macrowatch

I don't have a crystal ball, but for those that have the money, sometimes the only pain point is discovery and depositions airing presumably previously private information.

Interesting text messages to say the least!

Idk, as an investor this one kinda feels dirty. Would be interesting to see who the major buyers of shares were over the past few months since all this nonsense started. Seems like he intentionally drove the price down & stalled the sale. Doesn't seem like a very fair play if he always had intentions of going through with the deal.

[SDGT3]

We're selling into this rally as we believe there's more downside risk. Munis are looking more and more attractive now. With 10 year Treasuries at 3.74 we just picked up some AA rated, triple tax free going out only 6 years, at 4.1 YTW and no call.

[904VT]

Originally Posted by huncho

so looks like we're rallying on hopes the fed will pivot. this will end well...

Btw looks like someone launched the Inverse Jim Cramer ETF. Think we were talking about that just a few weeks back

https://markets.businessinsider.com/...m-ljim-2022-10

[Kowaco]

Originally Posted by Baco Noir

I retired in March with a 60/40 mix and about 10% in cash. The cash was to live on while the market corrected if needed, but more I’m thinking of moving to a 70/30 or event 80/20 mix since bonds have not performed in inverse to the stock market. Thoughts for someone who just retired during this show?

I’ve been moving money from bonds to stocks at 5% increments every time the market sells off,but I’m almost out of bonds because the market keeps selling off. You’re right bonds are almost as bad as stocks.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[huncho]

Originally Posted by 904VT

Btw looks like someone launched the Inverse Jim Cramer ETF. Think we were talking about that just a few weeks back

https://markets.businessinsider.com/...m-ljim-2022-10

[superdog]

the hits just keep on coming. AMD is a perfect example.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/07/stoc...-and-more.html

as the projections continue to change, the stocks are going to continue to slide.

this is not going turn around anytime soon. and as consumers spend less, projections and results will reflect that. in turn, stock prices will reflect that.

I understand why most would prefer to follow the tried and true methodology. but....

[macrowatch]

Originally Posted by huncho

The universe would implode on unsustainable paradoxes!

[m j b]

Originally Posted by superdog

the hits just keep on coming. AMD is a perfect example.

Micron (MU) also recently had some downbeat news. Micron been berry berry good to me (long ago).

Speaking of long ago, you'll have to be of a certain age to get that humor.

My portfolio is just a sea of red. I did sell some stuff when we had the brief rally this week, but not nearly enough, LOL.

And like posted above, every time the market goes down, I buy a little more.

I figure as long as I buy quality, it will work out in the end. Trying to avoid the crap.

[904VT]

Originally Posted by superdog

the hits just keep on coming. AMD is a perfect example.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/07/stoc...-and-more.html

as the projections continue to change, the stocks are going to continue to slide.

this is not going turn around anytime soon. and as consumers spend less, projections and results will reflect that. in turn, stock prices will reflect that.

I understand why most would prefer to follow the tried and true methodology. but....

I see AMD as a buying opportunity. They are beaten up right now because Ryzen 7000 seems like it will lag Intel’s upcoming Raptor Lake. But AMD has more 3D V Cache chips up their sleeve for early 2023. 7800X3D and 7950X3D will be coming along with RDNA 3 GPUs in November. Their 7800XT will probably gain a lot of mid/mid high market this gen. I think AMD is a good value right now but that’s just imo.

[904VT]

Originally Posted by huncho

That’s funny. I guess by proxy Cranmer recommending Inverse ETF would effectively cancel out his individual stock recommendations and cause an immediate flip of the holdings to be consistent with the inverse philosophy. He would essentially be admitting he flipped positions.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by 904VT

I see AMD as a buying opportunity. They are beaten up right now because Ryzen 7000 seems like it will lag Intel’s upcoming Raptor Lake. But AMD has more 3D V Cache chips up their sleeve for early 2023. 7800X3D and 7950X3D will be coming along with RDNA 3 GPUs in November. Their 7800XT will probably gain a lot of mid/mid high market this gen. I think AMD is a good value right now but that’s just imo.

I agree.

I simply think it’ll be much better in 3-6 months.

[904VT]

Originally Posted by superdog

I agree.

I simply think it’ll be much better in 3-6 months.

It just may be if RDNA 3 doesn’t live up to expectations in November. Judging by NVIDIA’s entries and pricing, AMD either has completely dominant GPUs on the horizon or massive disappointments. We’ll know next month.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by superdog

the hits just keep on coming. AMD is a perfect example.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/07/stoc...-and-more.html

as the projections continue to change, the stocks are going to continue to slide.

this is not going turn around anytime soon. and as consumers spend less, projections and results will reflect that. in turn, stock prices will reflect that.

I understand why most would prefer to follow the tried and true methodology. but....

AMD/Nvidia are both also being impacted by ethereum no longer being mineable, so the demand for their graphics cards would have dropped regardless of the economic climate. miners were the reason these graphics cards were so hard to buy to begin with and pushed the two companies into their own bubbles. still probably good value on amd at this point

[904VT]

Originally Posted by huncho

AMD/Nvidia are both also being impacted by ethereum no longer being mineable, so the demand for their graphics cards would have dropped regardless of the economic climate. miners were the reason these graphics cards were so hard to buy to begin with and pushed the two companies into their own bubbles. still probably good value on amd at this point

NVIDIA currently projecting Data Center revenue to exceed Gaming GPU revenue in Q2 2023. A significant change from the Gaming revenue dominating data center over the last few years to your point. The GPU market took a tumble after economic sanctions. I can’t help but wonder if the majority of miners were quasi state actors.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by huncho

AMD/Nvidia are both also being impacted by ethereum no longer being mineable, so the demand for their graphics cards would have dropped regardless of the economic climate. miners were the reason these graphics cards were so hard to buy to begin with and pushed the two companies into their own bubbles. still probably good value on amd at this point

totally get it. but tbh, I dont particlulary care the reasons. dont get me wrong, they are important.

but the fact is the markets move based on emotion and general news. and we are not done with the bad news.

I realize I could be wrong. of course. I get it. BUT, imho, everything is going to continue going down. the markets as a whole will react to data as it comes in.

this not currently priced in. and bad news is going to create more bad news. sadly, it is just how we operate. how the markets operate. momentum creates more momentum, in both directions. and there is simply too much bad news right now to change the momentum in a positive manner.

truly, I hope I am wrong. I am still having a crappy day. but it would be way worse had I not sold off what I had, when I had. if it goes up, I will be super duper happy. if I am wrong, I will be super duper happy. and then I will miss out on some upside and buy back in.

[7sins]

Originally Posted by superdog

but the fact is the markets move based on emotion and general news. and we are not done with the bad news.

Agree with you here, the equity market is NOT on fire sale, there are better opportunities to be held elsewhere. Investors forget, SPY is still 300 points HIGHER today than immediately prior to COVID hitting when markets were still considered expensive. Plenty of room for companies forward multiples to converge.

[7sins]

If anyone is looking for a contrarian position that is going against current trends, look at puts on UUP. This is a position I am dollar cost averaging into and not financial advice. The dollar is the strongest it has been in over 20 years, this does not mean it can't get slightly stronger but I think we are near a peak top for dollar strength for the next year. When markets eventually stabilize and or the FED stops raising rates while other central banks continue raising, this will cause the dollar to weaken. The very least, like any asset class, there will be mean reversion where the dollar normalizes. There are very few people on this side of the trade looking at the option chains (which maybe is a sign haha) but looking at IV, it is absurdly low, meaning the premiums are very cheap as no one prices this in. Trying to be one step ahead of future trends here.

Thus once consensus changes and the anticipation for the dollar is to weaken, even if the dollar doesn't in actuality, the anticipation will price these premiums higher. 2025 gives you a 1000+ day runway. Something to ponder for those wanting an atypical trade.

[BBL]

Hey guys... what is your opinion on Southern Company (SO) and Duke Energy (DUK)?
I like their dividends. Debating which to dive into....

Thanks
DM

[denmanproject]

Originally Posted by 7sins

If anyone is looking for a contrarian position that is going against current trends, look at puts on UUP. This is a position I am dollar cost averaging into and not financial advice. The dollar is the strongest it has been in over 20 years, this does not mean it can't get slightly stronger but I think we are near a peak top for dollar strength for the next year. When markets eventually stabilize and or the FED stops raising rates while other central banks continue raising, this will cause the dollar to weaken. The very least, like any asset class, there will be mean reversion where the dollar normalizes. There are very few people on this side of the trade looking at the option chains (which maybe is a sign haha) but looking at IV, it is absurdly low, meaning the premiums are very cheap as no one prices this in. Trying to be one step ahead of future trends here.

Thus once consensus changes and the anticipation for the dollar is to weaken, even if the dollar doesn't in actuality, the anticipation will price these premiums higher. 2025 gives you a 1000+ day runway. Something to ponder for those wanting an atypical trade.

I like this, but couldn’t you just buy UDN ? not questioning just curious!

[7sins]

Originally Posted by denmanproject

I like this, but couldn’t you just buy UDN ? not questioning just curious!

You certainly could on the underlying ETF, however, there is no OI nor liquidity in the option chain for UDN. Nov/Dec could create interesting entry points IMO.

[jaisonline]

Jeez. If things weren’t getting real enough…

Bank of England Governor Bailey: my message to pension funds is that you only have three days to get this rebalancing done.

Then immediately, this happened (as expected).

[HHIslander]

Originally Posted by jaisonline

Jeez. If things weren’t getting real enough…

Bank of England Governor Bailey: my message to pension funds is that you only have three days to get this rebalancing done.

Then immediately, this happened (as expected).

Looks like the big boys running stops.

[denmanproject]

Originally Posted by 7sins

You certainly could on the underlying ETF, however, there is no OI nor liquidity in the option chain for UDN. Nov/Dec could create interesting entry points IMO.

Appreciate the reply, thank you

[904VT]

Originally Posted by jaisonline

Jeez. If things weren’t getting real enough…

Bank of England Governor Bailey: my message to pension funds is that you only have three days to get this rebalancing done.

Then immediately, this happened (as expected).

Well that’s interesting. Did they have early access to today’s CPI print?

[huncho]

so what does the fed do now? clearly jacking up the rates more and more has no immediate impact on inflation so is there a point in doing 75-100? at the same time the more they hike the higher the dollar goes and we get closer to something breaking. during the summer i didn't understand how raising rates so aggressively to kill demand was their solution to fighting supply chain inflation

[superdog]

Originally Posted by huncho

so what does the fed do now? clearly jacking up the rates more and more has no immediate impact on inflation so is there a point in doing 75-100? at the same time the more they hike the higher the dollar goes and we get closer to something breaking. during the summer i didn't understand how raising rates so aggressively to kill demand was their solution to fighting supply chain inflation

find a way to alleviate supply chain issues.

not sure thats the feds job though.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by superdog

find a way to alleviate supply chain issues.

not sure thats the feds job though.

yeah it definitely isn't their job. somehow the inflation issue landed entirely on them but i don't think they can fix it alone and not through rate hikes. it seems like the biggest issues today are groceries and rent since oil has gone down a bit and i don't see how raising rates is gonna make people not buy food lol

i also don't know who's paying 5k a month rent for a 1 bed in nyc but that's another discussion ...

[HHIslander]

Originally Posted by superdog

find a way to alleviate supply chain issues.

not sure thats the feds job though.

Time will likely be the only cure. Fed has done pretty much all they can. I expect a 4 handle on inflation by end of Q1. That being said, I wasn't expecting a hot read this morning either. I am buying this morning but tight stops in place. When market is down this far and VIX in the red, it's time to hold nose and do something.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by HHIslander

Time will likely be the only cure. Fed has done pretty much all they can. I expect a 4 handle on inflation by end of Q1. That being said, I wasn't expecting a hot read this morning either. I am buying this morning but tight stops in place. When market is down this far and VIX in the red, it's time to hold nose and do something.

vix being red when markets dumped 4% at 8:30 was the most surprising thing