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Old 3 March 2020, 04:14 PM   #751
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In agreement with whatís written a few posts back - the government (over?) reaction is the most unusual thing.

Itís out now and only the most draconian coordinated public policy would work to contain it.

Letís hope it doesnít become as serious as many expect.
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Old 3 March 2020, 07:24 PM   #752
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Im 62 and in the high risk cat with High blood pressure etc...Ive always been a germaphobic .....OCD wash my hands 20 times a day....always using germ-x etc...wont use public bathrooms....wont shake hands....when i come home from a doctor i wash the clothes i had on and spray down the car seats....im bad, but ive always been this way since junior high. I have N95 mask i bought last year for the flu...when i though somebody might have it....but did not. I suppose to stop 95 percent (i hope) from getting through...
When i went to doctor today i had one on and she gave me a strange look. I told her my friend who works for Lockheed has been working on JSF for years and has been in South Korea for 18 months....he got a last flight out last friday and sent me a 52 year old male who wrote about what having the Corona virus was like for him ( he works for Lockheed also).....he called it my 22 days in Corona hell. First was extreme muscle pain and fatigue so bad he could hardly walk....then 103+ fever and a dry hacking cough a fewdays later...that got so bad he could not breath without coughing. He said he was hacking up this yellowish looking slime with some blood mixed it. He ended up in a hospital in Busan on a ventilator for 8 days. He wrote he really thought he was going to die but his fever broke on day 11 and slowly got better but still feels like he was hit by a bus. When he wrote this he was still in quarantine in South Korea as of Feb 24th was the day he emailed it.
After reading his story it scared me and im going stay home as much as possible not go out and have home grocery delivery till this virus blows over soon i hope soon. I know im being extreme but it sure sounds like something i dont want to get!
This is a live map of the virus location.....

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashb...23467b48e9ecf6
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Old 3 March 2020, 07:44 PM   #753
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I don't have data at hand to judge the severity of the disease and how contagious it is, the latest reports seem to point to a higher R0 compared to flu. But amid so much disinformation, how do we know? I'm pretty sure governments around the world have access to real and up to date information from epidemiologists.

Municipalities have been quarantined in Italy lately and 50k people were isolated, this was considered "absolutely necessary" by the authorities in order to contain the virus. They must have good reasons to take such measures, I think.

So despite the comments I hear here and there, based on what I know I'm not comfortable criticizing the measures authorities are taking to try and limit the spread.
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Old 3 March 2020, 08:35 PM   #754
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The truth is we don't have enough data to currently know exactly what the transmissibility is. They did a study on the Princess Diamond cruise ship and found that on average, each person would infect 2.28 others. This is known as the "R-Nought." The seasonal flu has an r-nought value of about 1.3. So the average infected person with the normal flu will infect 1.3 others. Some studies have the Covid 19 r-nought value higher, at almost 3. The WHO estimates it between 1.3 and 2.5. I don't think I've seen a single study showing its transmissibility is lower than the seasonal flu.

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-persp...-23-death-rate

It's important to know that environmental factors play a role in this number. Are the dynamics on a cruise ship the same as the real world? Probably not. Then again, is the population of a cruise ship healthier and more resilient to catching a virus than the general population? Maybe, maybe not. We need time and data to study these things.

So, in a nutshell, that's the cause of the fear. At best, it transmits the same as the seasonal flu, but kills at a rate 20x higher. At worst, it transmits about double the seasonal flu, and still kills 20x as many infected.

As to why China isn't experiencing many millions infected...well they put in place some of the most severe measures to stop the spread of a disease than any country ever has before. They put an entire province under quarantine, complete with drones that would identify people who were moving around. They built multiple hospitals in 10 (TEN!) days.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020...ther-countries

But if you think they did all that because of the western media, well, more power to you I guess.
Whoa whoa whoa there!!!!! 20x higher kill rate then flu???... Iím really hoping I misunderstood you. We lose between 40,000 and 60,000 people a year to the flu. That would mean 1 million Americans are going to die because of coronavirus and thatís if it only transmits at the same level as the flu as you stated above. Is that what you read somewhere? I have not heard anyone say that. If what you read is right then any day now we should hear of millions of people being infected followed by hundreds of thousands of people dying shortly after. Nothing I have seen or read comes anywhere close to those numbers.


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I don't have data at hand to judge the severity of the disease and how contagious it is, the latest reports seem to point to a higher R0 compared to flu. But amid so much disinformation, how do we know? I'm pretty sure governments around the world have access to real and up to date information from epidemiologists.

Municipalities have been quarantined in Italy lately and 50k people were isolated, this was considered "absolutely necessary" by the authorities in order to contain the virus. They must have good reasons to take such measures, I think.

So despite the comments I hear here and there, based on what I know I'm not comfortable criticizing the measures authorities are taking to try and limit the spread.
I donít think anyone is criticizing our governments response to this. I think itís smart for them to get on top of it as they have from the beginning. The only thing I have criticized is the markets response to it. I hate to see economic damage done before we know whatís going to happen because if nothing happens then the economic damage is still there. The truth is a lot of people are going to lose their jobs because of the massive sell off last week. My hope is everyone calmly prepares and cooler heads prevail with less panic until we know more. If the people who are predicting the worst are correct then what we will see in the coming weeks is literally hundreds of thousands of sick people if not more and so then we will know. I pray that doesnít happen.
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Old 3 March 2020, 08:40 PM   #755
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My hope is everyone calmly prepares and cooler heads prevail with less panic until we know more. If the people who are predicting the worst are correct then what we will see in the coming weeks is literally hundreds of thousands of sick people if not more and so then we will know. I pray that doesnít happen.
Amen.
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Old 3 March 2020, 08:46 PM   #756
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The CDC have removed the testing data from their website.

I hope this is just another glitch in the matrix and not their attempt to hide the fact that their testing hasn't increased as promised.

Let's hope it returns.

Agree. See:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/02/h...ick&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/0...rus-cdc-118523

On most matters, I have a lot of respect for the CDC. But they dropped the ball on testing kits as well as their recommendations for testing criteria, and have been slow to adjust to their mistake. Hopefully the FDA's intervention is helping to fix this.

The fact is that without testing, there is no way to know the extent of spread in the US. And the fact is that the US has not been testing like China, SK, Italy, etc and so far has lacked the capacity to do so.

Information is the key to avoid misinformation. So, I truly hope the CDC becomes more transparent in sharing information. And I truly hope the CDC get's its act together on getting kits out to local officials with reasonable protocols for testing.
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Old 3 March 2020, 08:55 PM   #757
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And for anyone who prefers Fox News to the NYT and Politico, here is a similar article.

https://www.foxnews.com/health/cdc-l...minated-report
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Old 3 March 2020, 09:30 PM   #758
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Whoa whoa whoa there!!!!! 20x higher kill rate then flu???... Iím really hoping I misunderstood you. We lose between 40,000 and 60,000 people a year to the flu. That would mean 1 million Americans are going to die because of coronavirus and thatís if it only transmits at the same level as the flu as you stated above. Is that what you read somewhere? I have not heard anyone say that. If what you read is right then any day now we should hear of millions of people being infected followed by hundreds of thousands of people dying shortly after. Nothing I have seen or read comes anywhere close to those numbers.
See this article for a summary of the confusion.

https://khn.org/news/fact-check-coro...ortality-rate/

Most often cited flu rate is 0.1%, or one tenth of 1%. Most often cited rate for CV is 2%. And yes that is a 20x increase.

Part of the problem is misspeaks - the acting Sec of Homeland Security mistakenly stated that the rate was the same for flu and CV. And this misstatement has been repeated by government officials and the media.

But there are no sources to back up this misspeak. And DHS and CDC have admitted that it was incorrect.

The other problem is that at this point no one really knows the CV mortality rate.

Reports of CV rates in Wuhan have ranged from 2 - 4%. In the rest of China, .7 to, more recently .9%.

But are these numbers accurate? Has China been under or over reporting infection rate? And how has this has affected the mortality rate? Short answer is that no one knows.
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Old 3 March 2020, 09:54 PM   #759
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See this article for a summary of the confusion.

https://khn.org/news/fact-check-coro...ortality-rate/

Most often cited flu rate is 0.1%, or one tenth of 1%. Most often cited rate for CV is 2%. And yes that is a 20x increase.

Part of the problem is misspeaks - the acting Sec of Homeland Security mistakenly stated that the rate was the same for flu and CV. And this misstatement has been repeated by government officials and the media.

But there are no sources to back up this misspeak. And DHS and CDC have admitted that it was incorrect.

The other problem is that at this point no one really knows the CV mortality rate.

Reports of CV rates in Wuhan have ranged from 2 - 4%. In the rest of China, .7 to, more recently .9%.

But are these numbers accurate? Has China been under or over reporting infection rate? And how has this has affected the mortality rate? Short answer is that no one knows.
I agree with you. Everything Iíve read says no one knows. Still though every news agency I have watched and read slings out these numbers like itís nothing. Iíll stand by what I said many pages ago that because of them doing this they are the cause of most of the panic. Thank you for the links.
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Old 3 March 2020, 10:15 PM   #760
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Very handy tool for quick data

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashb...23467b48e9ecf6
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Old 3 March 2020, 10:35 PM   #761
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IThank you for the links.
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Old 3 March 2020, 10:43 PM   #762
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i think its best to look at incidence, test rates, positivity and death rates on the princess ship

likely an older cohort with high levels of exposure

death rate was only 1%

far lower than death rate for expected age matched group quoted elsewhere

main problem is we dont know the true value of the denominator to determine death rate

the usa has 300 plus confirmed and 6 deaths but i suspect the true number of infected people is now in the multiple of tens of thousands

my gut feeling is most cases will be mild and un/underdetected, most of us will get it and the death rate will be marginally worse than a severe flu outbreak
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Old 3 March 2020, 11:10 PM   #763
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my gut feeling is most cases will be mild and un/underdetected, most of us will get it and the death rate will be marginally worse than a severe flu outbreak

Could it be that the death rate is far, far lower than with Flu?

The reason I ask Ė If you have flu you know about it and you are knocked for six, but many cases of Coronavirus are mild and possibly undetected and will never even be reported.

This in itself will be a large cause of exposure to the virus as many people will be spreading it, thinking they have only a Ďmild coldí or not even aware they have anything at all.
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Old 4 March 2020, 12:08 AM   #764
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the Coronavirus outbreak thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by nilel View Post
i think its best to look at incidence, test rates, positivity and death rates on the princess ship

likely an older cohort with high levels of exposure

death rate was only 1%


Quote:
Originally Posted by andyxxx View Post
Could it be that the death rate is far, far lower than with Flu?


Good points/questions. Information helps determine actual rates. Yet, to the person who has COVID-19, their own experience with the disease will depend on many things like their own pre-existing overall health. And more importantly any co-existing pulmonary challenges.

As for getting to the bottom of the data pile, each country can come up with stats that donít jibe with others. Many will use the WHO testing protocol. Here in US, CDC came up with their own (called real-time reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction testing).

Next, each country has their own reporting protocol. Here in US, the form seems more focused on China as a source when many countries have been the source via international travel.



What this means to me is an inadvertent reporting bias between independent authorities could slant results.

Lastly, people who catch COVID-19, but only have a mild case, will not be represented in the data if they donít go to a doctor. That skews data to the more severe cases. Recently some data are saying young people donít seem to catch it - itís when someone tries to parse the data down to slimmer slices, and draw such a conclusion, they are inadvertently worsening the confidence interval to a quite wide range.

So those points you raised are key and I think it will be a long time in getting really good, highly confident answers.


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Old 4 March 2020, 12:39 AM   #765
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Personally it seems way too early to know what the mortality rate is although there are some proxy’s. Italy and Iran appear to have death rates higher or inline with China but South Korea is extremely low. The CDC or at least other influences are clearly causing distress due to mistakes and lack of transparency. What is most bothersome to me is that some are far more concerned about face and economics rather than protecting their citizens. This will haunt us without doubt and everyone should take caution. As so many have stated throughout this thread, keep distance, wash your hands, don’t touch your face... etc. etc. For some this is extremely difficult especially if you have kids, but precautions and common sense can lower your exposure. Only time will tell as this continues to unwind of what the long term damage will be.
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Old 4 March 2020, 03:15 AM   #766
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Just got a haircut in Canada. The socialist government here required the customers to record their phone numbers incase of an out break they can find out who was in the building at the time. Being an American Iím not used to that sort of thing and didnít like it. The Canadian customers had no problem complying. In a few days I will be taking an international flight, there will be many foreign people on this flight. I will not be wearing a mask. And Iím not afraid. Maybe Iím stupid who knows. But I just donít worry about things generally.
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Old 4 March 2020, 04:16 AM   #767
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Headline on my local paper. Virus spreads!!! Death toll in US now at 6!


Yeah.... I am so sorry for those poor individuals and their families, I will pray they Rest In Peace. But... six (6)!? In, about a month since it was identified? I don’t mean to belittle any human being’s death, but really? All this panic? I submit during that same time frame tens if not hundreds of thousands have died in my country from cancer, the flu, car accidents, heart attacks etc. Yes, we have to fight this virus, but please, we are far from the zombie apocalypse.
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Old 4 March 2020, 04:44 AM   #768
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Headline on my local paper. Virus spreads!!! Death toll in US now at 6!


Yeah.... I am so sorry for those poor individuals and their families, I will pray they Rest In Peace. But... six (6)!? In, about a month since it was identified? I donít mean to belittle any human beingís death, but really? All this panic? I submit during that same time frame tens if not hundreds of thousands have died in my country from cancer, the flu, car accidents, heart attacks etc. Yes, we have to fight this virus, but please, we are far from the zombie apocalypse.
Im in the "high risk" cat because of age/diabetes ... even if it dont kill you my best friend from high school works for Lockheed and he has been in South Korea the past 16 months working on JSF and he sent me a email about some engineer he works with who was 51 and caught the virus...the email was called my days in hell with corona virus...he didn't die but came very close ...what he describes is something I sure dont want to get!
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Old 4 March 2020, 04:48 AM   #769
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Headline on my local paper. Virus spreads!!! Death toll in US now at 6!


Yeah.... I am so sorry for those poor individuals and their families, I will pray they Rest In Peace. But... six (6)!? In, about a month since it was identified? I don’t mean to belittle any human being’s death, but really? All this panic? I submit during that same time frame tens if not hundreds of thousands have died in my country from cancer, the flu, car accidents, heart attacks etc. Yes, we have to fight this virus, but please, we are far from the zombie apocalypse.

Seattle Times: (maybe a typo on the link heading stating 5...?)

... and a motel is being purchased to isolate the afflicted.

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle...ding-5-deaths/
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Old 4 March 2020, 04:52 AM   #770
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Just got a haircut in Canada. The socialist government here required the customers to record their phone numbers incase of an out break they can find out who was in the building at the time. Being an American Iím not used to that sort of thing and didnít like it. The Canadian customers had no problem complying. In a few days I will be taking an international flight, there will be many foreign people on this flight. I will not be wearing a mask. And Iím not afraid. Maybe Iím stupid who knows. But I just donít worry about things generally.
Hi Art... try to find a way to move back...
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Old 4 March 2020, 05:53 AM   #771
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Headline on my local paper. Virus spreads!!! Death toll in US now at 6!


Yeah.... I am so sorry for those poor individuals and their families, I will pray they Rest In Peace. But... six (6)!? In, about a month since it was identified? I donít mean to belittle any human beingís death, but really? All this panic? I submit during that same time frame tens if not hundreds of thousands have died in my country from cancer, the flu, car accidents, heart attacks etc. Yes, we have to fight this virus, but please, we are far from the zombie apocalypse.

This


Panic sells
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Old 4 March 2020, 06:03 AM   #772
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Headline on my local paper. Virus spreads!!! Death toll in US now at 6!


Yeah.... I am so sorry for those poor individuals and their families, I will pray they Rest In Peace. But... six (6)!? In, about a month since it was identified? I donít mean to belittle any human beingís death, but really? All this panic? I submit during that same time frame tens if not hundreds of thousands have died in my country from cancer, the flu, car accidents, heart attacks etc. Yes, we have to fight this virus, but please, we are far from the zombie apocalypse.
There's 8400 in california alone under observation but we don't got kits. The biggest issue is no one is getting tested. Same thing all across the nation. The numbers are likely around 50k+

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/27/cali...ronavirus.html
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Old 4 March 2020, 07:11 AM   #773
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There's 8400 in california alone under observation but we don't got kits. The biggest issue is no one is getting tested. Same thing all across the nation. The numbers are likely around 50k+

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/27/cali...ronavirus.html
Letís see, 8,600 cases. My home state has over 30,000,000 population. Carry the five, divide by two tangent 5 = Roughly .0003 % chance of contracting it. I honestly think your chances of being killed by Bigfoot are higher.

If you want to panic, head to the hills, sell all your belongings for supplies go ahead, but this doomsday attitude fueled by the press is ridiculous.
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Old 4 March 2020, 07:19 AM   #774
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this doomsday attitude fueled by the press is ridiculous.
100%

Or 10,000 basis points if we're measuring in market terms.

I'd prefer solid, straightforward, reliable numbers without the melodrama. People don't know how to handle themselves in times of crisis and playing off of this doesn't help.
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Old 4 March 2020, 07:20 AM   #775
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I’m not sure if the press is being as transparent as some may want. No updates from CDC. No leadership elsewhere. Until there is transparency, people are going to panic. Singapore handles this in a graceful way and continues to with a list of those infected, who they were in contact with, and what their current condition is. I think we’re doing this to ourselves and many lessons are being learned.
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Old 4 March 2020, 07:31 AM   #776
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Letís see, 8,600 cases. My home state has over 30,000,000 population. Carry the five, divide by two tangent 5 = Roughly .0003 % chance of contracting it. I honestly think your chances of being killed by Bigfoot are higher.

If you want to panic, head to the hills, sell all your belongings for supplies go ahead, but this doomsday attitude fueled by the press is ridiculous.
Paul I think the toughest thing when interpreting the numbers is that we don't have a good handle on the current numerator or denominator. Let's say there were 8600 people who contracted the virus 2 weeks ago and are now symptomatic. How many people did they interact with while actively shedding virus during that period? It can take a long time to go from 1-2 cases to 50 cases. But it could take a similar time duration to go from 50 to 2500 depending on how many previously unexposed people interact with the virus.

Word has definitely gotten out in my area. Everyone is keeping calm, no hysteria or anything. But I've never seen so many people in Target with soap and cleaning wipes in history, let alone the masses of people asking where the hand sanitizer is.... Well it's all out of stock in our entire region of Michigan, and can't be ordered online. Fortunately a lot of people here stock up on food during the winter as a precaution anyway.

We all have different risk tolerance. I called up my family and gave them a list of stuff to get in case they need to hunker down and avoid leaving their homes for a 2-3 week stretch. I hope they never need it, but will be glad they have it if they find themselves in an empty store-shelf situation in the coming weeks, or if local outbreaks reveal themselves in that time.
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Old 4 March 2020, 08:07 AM   #777
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Iím not sure if the press is being as transparent as some may want. No updates from CDC. No leadership elsewhere. Until there is transparency, people are going to panic. Singapore handles this in a graceful way and continues to with a list of those infected, who they were in contact with, and what their current condition is. I think weíre doing this to ourselves and many lessons are being learned.
What more do you want? We are updated constantly on exactly how many people are confirmed to have it and how many people have died. And itís not the CDC causing panic itís the news media.
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Old 4 March 2020, 08:10 AM   #778
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Paul I think the toughest thing when interpreting the numbers is that we don't have a good handle on the current numerator or denominator. Let's say there were 8600 people who contracted the virus 2 weeks ago and are now symptomatic. How many people did they interact with while actively shedding virus during that period? It can take a long time to go from 1-2 cases to 50 cases. But it could take a similar time duration to go from 50 to 2500 depending on how many previously unexposed people interact with the virus.

Word has definitely gotten out in my area. Everyone is keeping calm, no hysteria or anything. But I've never seen so many people in Target with soap and cleaning wipes in history, let alone the masses of people asking where the hand sanitizer is.... Well it's all out of stock in our entire region of Michigan, and can't be ordered online. Fortunately a lot of people here stock up on food during the winter as a precaution anyway.

We all have different risk tolerance. I called up my family and gave them a list of stuff to get in case they need to hunker down and avoid leaving their homes for a 2-3 week stretch. I hope they never need it, but will be glad they have it if they find themselves in an empty store-shelf situation in the coming weeks, or if local outbreaks reveal themselves in that time.
Letís look at this seriously for a second. Would hunkering down in your house for 2 to 3 weeks save you from getting this virus? It wouldnít keep you from getting the flu. The only way to never get this virus or any virus will be to stay in your house forever. That would be pretty much guaranteed so long as you didnít allow family members who went outside to come visit you.
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Old 4 March 2020, 08:18 AM   #779
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Originally Posted by uscmatt99 View Post
Paul I think the toughest thing when interpreting the numbers is that we don't have a good handle on the current numerator or denominator. Let's say there were 8600 people who contracted the virus 2 weeks ago and are now symptomatic. How many people did they interact with while actively shedding virus during that period? It can take a long time to go from 1-2 cases to 50 cases. But it could take a similar time duration to go from 50 to 2500 depending on how many previously unexposed people interact with the virus.



Word has definitely gotten out in my area. Everyone is keeping calm, no hysteria or anything. But I've never seen so many people in Target with soap and cleaning wipes in history, let alone the masses of people asking where the hand sanitizer is.... Well it's all out of stock in our entire region of Michigan, and can't be ordered online. Fortunately a lot of people here stock up on food during the winter as a precaution anyway.



We all have different risk tolerance. I called up my family and gave them a list of stuff to get in case they need to hunker down and avoid leaving their homes for a 2-3 week stretch. I hope they never need it, but will be glad they have it if they find themselves in an empty store-shelf situation in the coming weeks, or if local outbreaks reveal themselves in that time.


That is a better way to explain the numbers and the probability stats. I do agree the general public is still fairly safe as long as they take the advice regarding hygiene.

On the hand sanitizer, they are not as effective as washing well - but you can make your own if you canít buy it.

2 parts alcohol (no not vodka - it isnít strong enough) + 1 part pure aloe vera gel; stir.

Save your little travel size hotel shampoo/conditioner bottles and repurpose them.


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Old 4 March 2020, 08:19 AM   #780
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That is a better way to explain the numbers and the probability stats. I do agree the general public is still fairly safe as long as they take the advice regarding hygiene.

On the hand sanitizer, they are not as effective as washing well - but you can make your own if you canít buy it.

2 parts alcohol (no not vodka - it isnít strong enough) + 1 part pure aloe vera gel; stir.

Save your little travel size hotel shampoo/conditioner bottles and repurpose them.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro
You donít think the hand sanitizer is strong enough? I have been using that for years every time I pump gas.
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