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Old 18 March 2020, 07:57 PM   #2551
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I think thatís an over simplification of the discussions.

Maybe 2-5% Clueless posts
Another 2-5% GloomDoomers

The rest have been sharing perspectives from recent events.



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People are scared.
It doesn't hurt to be a little patient, listen to people's fears and try to be, well, kind, if possible.
We are all in this together.
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Old 18 March 2020, 07:59 PM   #2552
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This is worth watching.


https://youtu.be/mCa0JXEwDEk


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Old 18 March 2020, 08:14 PM   #2553
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This is worth watching.


https://youtu.be/mCa0JXEwDEk


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Thanks for sharing, still trying to get my head around the numbers given Hubei has 7 million people
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Old 18 March 2020, 08:26 PM   #2554
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Seth, give me a call tomorrow. I have been on almost 24hrs trying to do my part. You know I have offices/plants all over the world and in all these hot zones and got the first reports beginning of Dec from staff in Wuhan.

I am fortunate to have direct lines to all these agencies/banks. A report just came out tonight that is sobering, but shows the light at the end.

It’s not the end, but a good wake up call. We had protocols in place at one time at the government level(FDA/NIH/CDC) but they were sent to long term storage.

Many large businesses(large cap, with manageable leverage/no debt) are more solid than the general population understands. Stress tests have been run and are being run by most CFOs at major companies. The ones in trouble will be very evident shortly. All my CEO/COO colleagues at major companies, non-energy,hospitality/utilities are confident and have the same holdfast mentality.

It’s painful to watch, as wealth gets lost and shifted. I know it’s difficult when the man who made the most money in 2008 during the financial crisis asked me when I think it will end.

I will send you a text in the am.

But we will be ok, the world will be different, people will be lost, people will need our help, but we are going to come out of this.
I look forward to it brother. I’ve thought about you a lot. I figured you haven’t slept in about two weeks or so.

Thank you.
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Old 18 March 2020, 08:29 PM   #2555
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Thanks, I think you mean N.C.G.S. ß 166A- 19.31(b)

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Yes.
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Old 18 March 2020, 08:34 PM   #2556
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People are scared.
It doesn't hurt to be a little patient, listen to people's fears and try to be, well, kind, if possible.
We are all in this together.
I thought this deserved repeating.
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Old 18 March 2020, 09:35 PM   #2557
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You mean before? Of course?
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Before and after would be good!
Both, definitely!
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Old 18 March 2020, 10:57 PM   #2558
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I suppose zero thought to how the families will be effected or a accomodate. Someone will have to stay home. Local economies will soon fall.

Hunger, famine, mobs.

Say goodbye to Rome. This is how the latest empire falls. Panic.

Interesting how this all went down.

I feel like this is a James Bond movie.
Well, that's essentially how we're living in Italy right now.

Everything is closed with the exceptions of public transports, groceries, banks and some other stuff that were defined as "basic services". You can't walk around or drive unless you have a written declaration that you MUST go out. The police pressed charges on about 43K people so far because of this.

My kids are having their school lessons at home, thanks to the internet. I work from home too and so is my wife. We get out once a week, only one of us, to buy groceries for us and for my 75yo mother. Otherwise we're basically locked in.

And despite this, here in Italy we had 3000 NEW cases only yesterday. And 345 NEW deaths only Yesterday. Only because we were hit by the virus a couple of weeks before you.

The so-called "Patient one" in Piedmont has tested positive just few days after he was declared healthy and now he's in quarantine again. This virus is a real beast, 50-75% of the people that tested positive in the small village in Veneto that was probably the first contaminated area were completely unaware of that, no symptoms at all: they spread the virus almost everywhere, unknowingly.

Last but not least, so far we have worldwide:

204069 total cases with 8250 deaths.
112953 active cases with about 6% serious or critical.
91116 closed cases with about 9% deaths.

Here in Italy we have so far 31506 total cases with 2503 deaths on 5444 closed cases. Yes, about 46% of the closed cases are deaths.

More than 2K people are serious / critical. We don't have emergency beds anymore in Lombardy where I live, we're shipping patients around the country.

It's not a James Bond movie.
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Old 18 March 2020, 11:05 PM   #2559
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I suspect food distribution is going to become an issue. We are advised to stay at home and self-isolate... some have to because they have increased vulnerability due to underlying health conditions.

Simultaneously, there are no delivery slots (or click and collect slots) available on most UK supermarkets for a month.... to add to this, the supermarkets are rationing supplies because of the morons buying 20 loaves of bread. So you can only buy 2 tins of soup (not 4) and this has to last you a month because there are no deliveries.

I have been monitoring 4 major supermarket chains over the past 5 days (I'm bored) and I am not exaggerating. There may be some areas that are slightly better, but in my part of the world, not far from London, you simply cannot arrange for a home delivery.

And yet.... the distribution channels are robust.... there is plenty of food - arguably a surplus as restaurants are closing down.

We could all do with losing a few pound, but this feels the wrong time to get thin! :)
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Old 18 March 2020, 11:17 PM   #2560
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I suspect food distribution is going to become an issue. We are advised to stay at home and self-isolate... some have to because they have increased vulnerability due to underlying health conditions.

Simultaneously, there are no delivery slots (or click and collect slots) available on most UK supermarkets for a month.... to add to this, the supermarkets are rationing supplies because of the morons buying 20 loaves of bread. So you can only buy 2 tins of soup (not 4) and this has to last you a month because there are no deliveries.

I have been monitoring 4 major supermarket chains over the past 5 days (I'm bored) and I am not exaggerating. There may be some areas that are slightly better, but in my part of the world, not far from London, you simply cannot arrange for a home delivery.

And yet.... the distribution channels are robust.... there is plenty of food - arguably a surplus as restaurants are closing down.

We could all do with losing a few pound, but this feels the wrong time to get thin! :)
Part of the complication (in the US) is that the suppliers for restaurants are not the same as the suppliers for grocery stores. So, there will need to be repackaging / labeling / account acquisition on part of the restaurant suppliers to sell product to grocery stores. Especially since demand is shifting from restaurant (now closed in North Carolina) to grocery purchases. I can say grocery stores are looking like Russian grocery stores in the 80's. It is a mess.
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Old 18 March 2020, 11:30 PM   #2561
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Part of the complication (in the US) is that the suppliers for restaurants are not the same as the suppliers for grocery stores. So, there will need to be repackaging / labeling / account acquisition on part of the restaurant suppliers to sell product to grocery stores. Especially since demand is shifting from restaurant (now closed in North Carolina) to grocery purchases. I can say grocery stores are looking like Russian grocery stores in the 80's. It is a mess.
Good point.

I am not a doom-monger - I am an extremely positive and optimistic soul... but I am quite concerned about the food issues here. I have some very elderly relatives in their 90's. No internet, no mobile phone... and I'm telling them to stay indoors! Hard to do when it's just not possible to order food for a month.

I am sure there are countless people in the same situation.
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Old 18 March 2020, 11:37 PM   #2562
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Well, that's essentially how we're living in Italy right now.

Everything is closed with the exceptions of public transports, groceries, banks and some other stuff that were defined as "basic services". You can't walk around or drive unless you have a written declaration that you MUST go out. The police pressed charges on about 43K people so far because of this.

My kids are having their school lessons at home, thanks to the internet. I work from home too and so is my wife. We get out once a week, only one of us, to buy groceries for us and for my 75yo mother. Otherwise we're basically locked in.

And despite this, here in Italy we had 3000 NEW cases only yesterday. And 345 NEW deaths only Yesterday. Only because we were hit by the virus a couple of weeks before you.

The so-called "Patient one" in Piedmont has tested positive just few days after he was declared healthy and now he's in quarantine again. This virus is a real beast, 50-75% of the people that tested positive in the small village in Veneto that was probably the first contaminated area were completely unaware of that, no symptoms at all: they spread the virus almost everywhere, unknowingly.

Last but not least, so far we have worldwide:

204069 total cases with 8250 deaths.
112953 active cases with about 6% serious or critical.
91116 closed cases with about 9% deaths.

Here in Italy we have so far 31506 total cases with 2503 deaths on 5444 closed cases. Yes, about 46% of the closed cases are deaths.

More than 2K people are serious / critical. We don't have emergency beds anymore in Lombardy where I live, we're shipping patients around the country.

It's not a James Bond movie.

I am not a man of prayer. But I am praying for you and all of Italy. And all of the world.
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Old 18 March 2020, 11:43 PM   #2563
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the Coronavirus outbreak thread

COVID-19 globally:
179,111 confirmed cases (11,525 new ones in last 24 hours)
7,426 deaths (475 occurred in last 24 hours)

https://www.who.int/docs/default-sou...rsn=a26922f2_4

4.1% mortality on those numbers (of course local mortality rate will vary by the coronavirus infection demographics).

We need to bend that curve downward with possible combined therapies once people have COVID-19. That part is in the hands of the health officials and medical professionals. I believe there is an answer - it will need some inventive person (aka Alexander) to untie the apparent gordian knot.

The distancing and isolation efforts can reduce the number of people exposed to coronavirus. That part is in our hands. Our efforts donít change the conversion rate of coronavirus exposure into full-blown COVID-19 cases - but our efforts are key.

We have a two-pronged problem to solve; the first prong is in our hands. Complying with the distancing and isolation requires our personal attention. The second prong is with the professionals.

Just my take on what we can do each and every day to reduce the spread. This buys time for health proís to create a better treatment course to bring down the mortality rate.






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Old 18 March 2020, 11:55 PM   #2564
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Old 18 March 2020, 11:56 PM   #2565
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Originally Posted by 77T View Post
COVID-19 globally:
179,111 confirmed cases (11,525 new ones in last 24 hours)
7,426 deaths (475 occurred in last 24 hours)

https://www.who.int/docs/default-sou...rsn=a26922f2_4

4.1% mortality on those numbers (of course local mortality rate will vary by the coronavirus infection demographics).

We need to bend that curve downward with possible combined therapies once people have COVID-19. That part is in the hands of the health officials and medical professionals. I believe there is an answer - it will need some inventive person (aka Alexander) to untie the apparent gordian knot.

The distancing and isolation efforts can reduce the number of people exposed to coronavirus. That part is in our hands. Our efforts donít change the conversion rate of coronavirus exposure into full-blown COVID-19 cases - but our efforts are key.

We have a two-pronged problem to solve; the first prong is in our hands. Complying with the distancing and isolation requires our personal attention. The second prong is with the professionals.

Just my take on what we can do each and every day to reduce the spread. This buys time for health proís to create a better treatment course to bring down the mortality rate.






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makes sense. I hope some of our "leaders" are thinking about it along those lines.

I also hope that people are doing everything they can do take care of themselves.

I see a lot of negativity attitudes. Energy begets energy. Fact of life.

I never check Facebook. I did yesterday. 90% of what I saw was people getting drunk.

If we are going to face this down, we need to do everything we can. That includes staying healthy.

1. Drop the booze.
2. Get a lot of rest.
3. Drink a lot of water.
4. Eat as many fruits and vegetables as possible.
5. Take daily vitamins.
6. Move around, get some exercise.
7. Practice taking deep intentional calming breaths.
8. Reduce stress as much as possible.
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Old 18 March 2020, 11:56 PM   #2566
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 77T View Post
COVID-19 globally:
179,111 confirmed cases (11,525 new ones in last 24 hours)
7,426 deaths (475 occurred in last 24 hours)

https://www.who.int/docs/default-sou...rsn=a26922f2_4

4.1% mortality on those numbers (of course local mortality rate will vary by the coronavirus infection demographics).

We need to bend that curve downward with possible combined therapies once people have COVID-19. That part is in the hands of the health officials and medical professionals. I believe there is an answer - it will need some inventive person (aka Alexander) to untie the apparent gordian knot.

The distancing and isolation efforts can reduce the number of people exposed to coronavirus. That part is in our hands. Our efforts donít change the conversion rate of coronavirus exposure into full-blown COVID-19 cases - but our efforts are key.

We have a two-pronged problem to solve; the first prong is in our hands. Complying with the distancing and isolation requires our personal attention. The second prong is with the professionals.

Just my take on what we can do each and every day to reduce the spread. This buys time for health proís to create a better treatment course to bring down the mortality rate.






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Number higher, we're at 205K total cases and climbing.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
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Old 18 March 2020, 11:59 PM   #2567
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makes sense. I hope some of our "leaders" are thinking about it along those lines.



I also hope that people are doing everything they can do take care of themselves.



I see a lot of negativity attitudes. Energy begets energy. Fact of life.



I never check Facebook. I did yesterday. 90% of what I saw was people getting drunk.



If we are going to face this down, we need to do everything we can. That includes staying healthy.



1. Drop the booze.

2. Get a lot of rest.

3. Drink a lot of water.

4. Eat as many fruits and vegetables as possible.

5. Take daily vitamins.

6. Move around, get some exercise.

7. Practice taking deep intentional calming breaths.

8. Reduce stress as much as possible.


Yes very good point that I didnít mention. Our personal effort must include taking care of our mind & body. This helps us if COVID-19 comes into your life.



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Old 19 March 2020, 12:06 AM   #2568
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the Coronavirus outbreak thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by GoingPlaces View Post
Number higher, we're at 205K total cases and climbing.



https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries


Iím not challenging you at all.

I do challenge their methodology. It appears to me they are using self-reported data beyond official sources.

Their reporting also leaves a bit of room for error - like calculating a 9% death rate by only using cases recovered.

I looked at their website a week ago and canít find a definitive citation of data sources. Have you found that info?

All I find is this claim:

The live counters show the real-time estimate as computed by our proprietary algorithm.


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Old 19 March 2020, 12:14 AM   #2569
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So are we saying the death rate now is 4% of all cases?!


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Old 19 March 2020, 12:16 AM   #2570
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So are we saying the death rate now is 4% of all cases?!


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4% of reported cases by WHO. we always said the cases are probably underreported officially.

So actually the death rate could be much lower.


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Old 19 March 2020, 12:19 AM   #2571
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I suspect food distribution is going to become an issue. We are advised to stay at home and self-isolate... some have to because they have increased vulnerability due to underlying health conditions.

Simultaneously, there are no delivery slots (or click and collect slots) available on most UK supermarkets for a month.... to add to this, the supermarkets are rationing supplies because of the morons buying 20 loaves of bread. So you can only buy 2 tins of soup (not 4) and this has to last you a month because there are no deliveries.

I have been monitoring 4 major supermarket chains over the past 5 days (I'm bored) and I am not exaggerating. There may be some areas that are slightly better, but in my part of the world, not far from London, you simply cannot arrange for a home delivery.

And yet.... the distribution channels are robust.... there is plenty of food - arguably a surplus as restaurants are closing down.

We could all do with losing a few pound, but this feels the wrong time to get thin! :)

https://www.inquirer.com/health/coro...-20200316.html
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Old 19 March 2020, 12:21 AM   #2572
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Well, that's essentially how we're living in Italy right now.

Everything is closed with the exceptions of public transports, groceries, banks and some other stuff that were defined as "basic services". You can't walk around or drive unless you have a written declaration that you MUST go out. The police pressed charges on about 43K people so far because of this.

My kids are having their school lessons at home, thanks to the internet. I work from home too and so is my wife. We get out once a week, only one of us, to buy groceries for us and for my 75yo mother. Otherwise we're basically locked in.

And despite this, here in Italy we had 3000 NEW cases only yesterday. And 345 NEW deaths only Yesterday. Only because we were hit by the virus a couple of weeks before you.

The so-called "Patient one" in Piedmont has tested positive just few days after he was declared healthy and now he's in quarantine again. This virus is a real beast, 50-75% of the people that tested positive in the small village in Veneto that was probably the first contaminated area were completely unaware of that, no symptoms at all: they spread the virus almost everywhere, unknowingly.

Last but not least, so far we have worldwide:

204069 total cases with 8250 deaths.
112953 active cases with about 6% serious or critical.
91116 closed cases with about 9% deaths.

Here in Italy we have so far 31506 total cases with 2503 deaths on 5444 closed cases. Yes, about 46% of the closed cases are deaths.

More than 2K people are serious / critical. We don't have emergency beds anymore in Lombardy where I live, we're shipping patients around the country.

It's not a James Bond movie.
Thank you for sharing. Sending positive thoughts to you, your family and your friends and neighbors.
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Old 19 March 2020, 12:22 AM   #2573
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I think that both sides are the argument are both wrong and right.

If we go to extremes and control the virus to do minimum damage then the guys who say that we overreacted are going to say we told you so.

If we just let it spread with barely any rules in place then the guys who says that its the end of the world are going to say we told you so.

Right now its best that everyone just cooperate fully and get this under control so we can return to some normalcy in our lives faster. Its really hard to find a good balance between the two extremes unfortunately and we have seen both sides of the spectrum in the example of Italy, France, and Germany vs Taiwan, South Korea, and Singapore. Everyone is hurting in this situation but we need to come together and just get through it just as everything else in life. Everyone is going to have to make some sacrifices before it gets better.

I wish everyone and their loved ones to be safe and healthy
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Old 19 March 2020, 12:22 AM   #2574
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4% of reported cases by WHO. we always said the cases are probably underreported officially.

So actually the death rate could be much lower.


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Thanks, Iíve developed horrible reflux/indigestion over the last few days, the stress of the situation is taking a toll.


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Old 19 March 2020, 12:29 AM   #2575
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Thanks, Iíve developed horrible reflux/indigestion over the last few days, the stress of the situation is taking a toll.


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The stress and anxiety does come out in weird ways. I had a fever dream the other night. Not a fever induced dream, but a dream about having a fever of 110F. Last night, I took a break from the internet and had take-out pizza and played a board game with the family. I am in a much better mindset today for sure! Wishing the same for you.
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Old 19 March 2020, 12:33 AM   #2576
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The stress and anxiety does come out in weird ways. I had a fever dream the other night. Not a fever induced dream, but a dream about having a fever of 110F. Last night, I took a break from the internet and had take-out pizza and played a board game with the family. I am in a much better mindset today for sure! Wishing the same for you.

Thank you


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Old 19 March 2020, 12:35 AM   #2577
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These are takeaways from an invite only Goldman Sachs call that just completed. In true TRF tradition believe what you will...

50% of Americans will contract the virus (150m people) as it's very communicable. This is on a par with the common cold (Rhinovirus) of which there are about 200 strains and which the majority of Americans will get 2-4 per year.

70% of Germany will contract it (58M people). This is the next most relevant industrial economy to be effected.

Peak-virus is expected over the next eight weeks, declining thereafter.

The virus appears to be concentrated in a band between 30-50 degrees north latitude, meaning that like the common cold and flu, it prefers cold weather. The coming summer in the northern hemisphere should help. This is to say that the virus is likely seasonal.

Of those impacted 80% will be early-stage, 15% mid-stage and 5% critical-stage. Early-stage symptoms are like the common cold and mid-stage symptoms are like the flu; these are stay at home for two weeks and rest. 5% will be critical and highly weighted towards the elderly.

Mortality rate on average of up to 2%, heavily weight towards the elderly and immunocompromised; meaning up to 3m people (150m*.02). In the US about 3m/yr die mostly due to old age and disease, those two being highly correlated (as a percent very few from accidents). There will be significant overlap, so this does not mean 3m new deaths from the virus, it means elderly people dying sooner due to respiratory issues. This may however stress the healthcare system.

There is a debate as to how to address the virus pre-vaccine. The US is tending towards quarantine. The UK is tending towards allowing it to spread so that the population can develop a natural immunity. Quarantine is likely to be ineffective and result in significant economic damage but will slow the rate of transmission giving the healthcare system more time to deal with the case load.

China’s economy has been largely impacted which has affected raw materials and the global supply chain. It may take up to six months for it to recover.

Global GDP growth rate will be the lowest in 30 years at around 2%.

S&P 500 will see a negative growth rate of -15% to -20% for 2020 overall.

There will be economic damage from the virus itself, but the real damage is driven mostly by market psychology. Viruses have been with us forever. Stock markets should fully recover in the 2nd half of the year.
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Old 19 March 2020, 12:35 AM   #2578
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Thanks, I’ve developed horrible reflux/indigestion over the last few days, the stress of the situation is taking a toll.


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Old 19 March 2020, 12:36 AM   #2579
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Iím not challenging you at all.

I do challenge their methodology. It appears to me they are using self-reported data beyond official sources.

Their reporting also leaves a bit of room for error - like calculating a 9% death rate by only using cases recovered.

I looked at their website a week ago and canít find a definitive citation of data sources. Have you found that info?

All I find is this claim:

The live counters show the real-time estimate as computed by our proprietary algorithm.


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Over my head, if you say so. Stay safe.
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Old 19 March 2020, 12:37 AM   #2580
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I am not a man of prayer. But I am praying for you and all of Italy. And all of the world.
Neither am I but thanks a lot, much appreciated.
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