Sub Date Resale is Below Retail

[brkn]

On February 2022, I contacted DavidSW to ask their buying prices for two watches. Here were their prices (I only asked new):
2/19/2022
$14k new 126610LN
$19k new 126710BLNR with jubilee bracelet

Today I contacted them again. Here is what they are paying today:
9/25/2022
$11k new $10k preowned 126610LN
$15.5k new $14.5k preowned 126710BLNR

So it no longer makes sense to buy a sub date for flipping, as you can only get around $300 bucks (depending on sales tax ofc) if you sell it the next day. If, on the other hand you decide to wear it for a month or two and then resell, you will actually lose $700 of value.

Their buying prices have retreated around 20% from this year's highs. Funny thing is I don't see that much of a difference in their actual sales prices. An unworn 126610LN, if you want to buy from DavidSW, is still around $17.5k, and an excellent condition is at $15.5k (I think it was previously at $16.5k).

Where do you see the prices in the next 6 months, or a year or two? Do you think they will go lower? What will contribute to the change in prices in the future?

[drrd]

Originally Posted by brkn

it no longer makes sense to buy a sub date for flipping...

...to DSW.

[brkn]

Originally Posted by drrd

...to DSW.

where else can you sell it instantly and get the money the next day?

[eijiboy]

Originally Posted by brkn

where else can you sell it instantly and get the money the next day?

Msg some of the seller here and there are some in the fb group


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[1665fan]

If he is offering 11k for a new sub and selling for 16k I would laugh and pass…..

[S.Explorer]

Good, then flippers can disappear from AD waiting lists.

In terms of reseller prices shown, they have definitely dropped (in the UK at least) but resellers are trying to sit tight, hoping not to crystallise paper losses. Reseller stock is moving very slowly or has stalled.

My view is there is still room for prices to fall on the reseller market.

[amh]

Uh no, OP. All it means is DavidSW is offering slightly lower than street price - which of course he must since he still wants to make a profit.

Actually those BLNR offers are pretty good, $15k for a BNIB. Quite a bit of profit left even for our Whales, they get about $4k and David makes another 4k on top.

This is far from over.

[dannyp]

Originally Posted by brkn

Funny thing is I don't see that much of a difference in their actual sales prices. An unworn 126610LN, if you want to buy from DavidSW, is still around $17.5k, and an excellent condition is at $15.5k (I think it was previously at $16.5k).

No, there’s little difference in what he’s listing for now vs then. What one actually negotiates with him is a wholly different matter.

[Notsoprobro]

For what its worth, any time I've contacted DSW, their offers are always significantly lower than other greys.

I wanted to trade my 126710BLRO and 126710BLNR for a 116718LN or 116719BLRO and DSW wanted a significant amount of cash on top. Ended up making a straight trade with a different dealer.

[Mystro]

Cold calls will greatly vary if the dealer doesn’t have a working relationship with you.
I guarantee the top dealers are stocking up now while prices are low for a increase market price down the road. David is a long term player.

[FloridaBill]

I was in Orlando two months ago and stopped by DavidSW and it is a very nice store, but he was only offering retail for new sub's

He did have a few Daytona's but the price was still a little high for me ($39k for panda) and ($49k for white gold oysterflex)

He has a brick and mortar business with employees and needs to make a profit or will have to close the doors and sell via internet and a ghost vacation. He has some nice inventory and they treated me well, even though I did not buy or sell anything.

[brkn]

Originally Posted by amh

Quite a bit of profit left even for our Whales, they get about $4k and David makes another 4k on top.
This is far from over.

may I ask what you mean by whales?

[inadeje]

So he is blatantly making 5k on the sale? If listed at 16 but buys at 11, isn’t that confirmation? Healthy profit, but is it sustainable?

[mobster600]

This is far from the bottom. Prices will get worse.

[slm9555]

Anytime I’ve tried to sell dws was the lowest. However, his asking prices are still up there. Hopefully the asking prices start to correct to where it’s 1-2k over trade in and not 5k


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[Bill11783]

Glad to hear the prices are coming down. Hopefully it weeds out half of the buying population. Looking forward to the day I can visit a Rolex AD, try on a watch and walk out with it the same day.

[Mathematoxic]

Full time dealers who are serious in their business will and should take precaution when buying inventory in the current market conditions. From what I know, they buy only if it’s very cheap. Else they sell on consignment.

Putting myself in the shoes of a brick and mortar dealer, taking in the sub at 11k and trying to sell at 16k is fair considering the risk he is taking on. What if the market goes thru another round of significant correction? If the seller wants maximum value for his watch, he should sell it on his own.

Based on the buying practices of dealers now, and dropping of asking prices daily for some models, I don’t see how the watch market is going up in the near future.
Hope to see watches available in ADs soon! Cheers!

[train-time]

Originally Posted by inadeje

So he is blatantly making 5k on the sale? If listed at 16 but buys at 11, isn’t that confirmation? Healthy profit, but is it sustainable?

Originally Posted by Mathematoxic

Full time dealers who are serious in their business will and should take precaution when buying inventory in the current market conditions. From what I know, they buy only if it’s very cheap. Else they sell on consignment.

Putting myself in the shoes of a brick and mortar dealer, taking in the sub at 11k and trying to sell at 16k is fair considering the risk he is taking on. What if the market goes thru another round of significant correction? If the seller wants maximum value for his watch, he should sell it on his own.

Based on the buying practices of dealers now, and dropping of asking prices daily for some models, I don’t see how the watch market is going up in the near future.
Hope to see watches available in ADs soon! Cheers!

While the spread of $5k might be considered a decent profit it also has to cover overhead especially it the reseller is not just an internet seller as well as the risk of further market declines.

This also assumes it sells at $16k. From what I have seen, the increased supply all around, ADs included is due to a fairly healthy decline in buyers, so the watch just sits there at $16k while its market value continues to decline. Also, from my experience resellers are not even buying at this time so there is no market if one is looking to move a piece or two right now until we see the market settle. Often watch enthusiasts look to sell a piece to fund the next grail on their journey and were accustomed to easily doing this over the past few years. I am afraid this opportunity is over so this will also slow down buying. I am not confident that we will see the market improve or even settle down for the upcoming holiday season as one might expect.

[eijiboy]

one is sold today at 13300 nib 126610ln

[titleist888]

Prices are for sure coming down. I follow a few listings on Chrono24 and they dropped $1k yesterday

[dmash]

Originally Posted by brkn

where else can you sell it instantly and get the money the next day?

Haha what?

[101031-28]

Originally Posted by 1665fan

If he is offering 11k for a new sub and selling for 16k I would laugh and pass…..

That makes two of us