Is now really the time to buy?

[SkyJuice]

Depends, do you forsee yourself needing the cash flow? It can matter when you have to decide putting food on the table for 3 months during out of job or a watch.

[Craigtw]

Wait for a while. A Pepsi from a verified dealer with box and papers is listed on Chrono24 for £9,663/$12,021. That’s crazy how far it as dropped and it’s only going one way for the foreseeable future.

[Sandpit]

Originally Posted by Calatrava r

I think supply of new watches will be very slow through year end. Rolex will lose 6 weeks of production or more and cannot make that up and I think they will moderate supply until they can gauge market demand to prevent brand devaluation and discounting.

If the number of 800k watches per year is correct (I think it’s more) then we’re talking less than 100k pieces during the shutdown. In my mind that is nothing.

Have you seen Rolex’s automated stocking facility? It looks like this. There are 14 aisles like this. I don’t think there will be a problem with production.

[faimag]

Originally Posted by Sandpit

If the number of 800k watches per year is correct (I think it’s more) then we’re talking less than 100k pieces during the shutdown. In my mind that is nothing.

Have you seen Rolex’s automated stocking facility? It looks like this. There are 14 aisles like this. I don’t think there will be a problem with production.
[/IMG]

What's your point? There are also ample of diamonds in the world but supply is tightly controlled and limited to maintain the allure of rarity and exclusivity.

Plus, the number you quoted refers to ALL models Rolex makes. Divide it by the number of models and you will see it's not that much after all.

[sgwatchguy]

Originally Posted by Sandpit

If the number of 800k watches per year is correct (I think it’s more) then we’re talking less than 100k pieces during the shutdown. In my mind that is nothing.

Have you seen Rolex’s automated stocking facility? It looks like this. There are 14 aisles like this. I don’t think there will be a problem with production.

A months production and supply lost is massive, no matter who you are.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Moondoggy]

18 months.

[Nairn1980]

Originally Posted by Craigtw

Wait for a while. A Pepsi from a verified dealer with box and papers is listed on Chrono24 for £9,663/$12,021. That’s crazy how far it as dropped and it’s only going one way for the foreseeable future.

They’re still £13k plus in UK pretty much.
You can convert foreign sellers but you take a risk to buy that way and will pay shipping, import fees plus 20% VAT.....I wouldn’t take these chances

[Craigtw]

Rolex need to make and sell watches. That’s how they make money. The only way they could keep production low and keep demand high with the same profit is to massively increase prices, which isn’t going to happen.

[3sheets86]

Originally Posted by Nairn1980

They’re still £13k plus in UK pretty much.
You can convert foreign sellers but you take a risk to buy that way and will pay shipping, import fees plus 20% VAT.....I wouldn’t take these chances

Agree. UK only for me. My dad bought a guitar effects pedal from the states without thinking about VAT etc, he was gutted when he couldn’t have it delivered without paying some more money. Proper tight arse he is too, he’s still going on about it 18 months later!

[Xerxes77]

The price for sure will go down and also availability will be improved especially at Rolex.
We must don’t forget this craziness start 2 years ago. Till then availability was ok even from some hot pieces we need to wait few months.
What it’s very important in this equation are the flippers who will disappear from the list because the grey dealers are full stock with hot watches who now are not moving and keep them blocked.
I’m not saying we will find Rolex hot models under MRSP I say we will find this hot models easily on AD or will be available on grey market for 1-2k over MRSP.
But who think this super exploded price will remain at this point are really a dreamer and very optimistic person.
Patek maybe will keep a resonable price over MRSP but not what we see in 2019.

[spare]

Originally Posted by Craigtw

Wait for a while. A Pepsi from a verified dealer with box and papers is listed on Chrono24 for £9,663/$12,021. That’s crazy how far it as dropped and it’s only going one way for the foreseeable future.

Where are you seeing that ad? The very cheapest one I've seen is €13.755 from a HK grey. They have come a long way down, but far off from what you're quoting.

[beshannon]

Not the time for me

[Sandpit]

Originally Posted by faimag

What's your point? There are also ample of diamonds in the world but supply is tightly controlled and limited to maintain the allure of rarity and exclusivity.

Plus, the number you quoted refers to ALL models Rolex makes. Divide it by the number of models and you will see it's not that much after all.

The point is that I don’t think there’s any question as to whether Rolex can produce sufficient pieces. If there’s any type of shortage in all this it’s going to be a demand shortage.

[gold&black]

Originally Posted by Nairn1980

They’re still £13k plus in UK pretty much.
You can convert foreign sellers but you take a risk to buy that way and will pay shipping, import fees plus 20% VAT.....I wouldn’t take these chances

Around 13k for now but it's just a matter of time before they go much lower.

[Nairn1980]

Originally Posted by gold&black

Around 13k for now but it's just a matter of time before they go much lower.

I see them going down a touch, but honestly not massively. I could be wrong but that is my feeling

[Marcjvr]

Originally Posted by faimag

What's your point? There are also ample of diamonds in the world but supply is tightly controlled and limited to maintain the allure of rarity and exclusivity.

Yeah that strategy hasn’t worked out too well

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.blo...-for-some-time

[gold&black]

Originally Posted by Nairn1980

I see them going down a touch, but honestly not massively. I could be wrong but that is my feeling

Our market generally tends to follow the US, but staggered. I honestly think they will trend down and certainly more than a touch.

But it shouldn't matter if you bought at retail and love watches

[Highlatitude]

The economic cost of what is happening is high but it does not affect all people evenly. Many will loose money, many will gain money and many will neither loose nor gain (those salaried who’s employers have the capability to survive the downturn).

Therefore there will still be many people able and willing to buy the watches they have been trying to get when they become available. Especially, if you consider that many Rolex are sold to the grey market in other parts of the World. Half the new Rolex for sale by greys in Hong Kong came out the back door of European ADs.

Right now many ADs are selling the highly desirable stock that previously they where hiding in their safes to be used to bundle with hard to sell high profit pieces. They are only doing this because they need cash flow to survive the shutdown. At the end of the shutdown when Rolex start shipping to them again these ADs will attempt to build back up those hidden pieces in their safe. When they have done this they will attempt to sell the next lot of hot pieces to greys as they did in the past. Grey prices will come down but not to below RRP but enough to get the people who can still afford to, to buy. Coming out of the Covid 19 crisis there will be a boom for some industries and the end result will not be the significant change that people imagine it might be and I don’t think we will see many hot pieces in AD windows. The idea that they will be ringing customers and begging for their business is unfortunately fantasy. However much I would like to see that happen.

[Oystersteel92]

Originally Posted by locutus49

I have put out the word that I am a buyer of new Daytonas for 10K. So far not a sound. But I am patient.

That's bold, but then again you are a Borg.

So just to confirm, you would turn an AD down that called and offered a Daytona for list price? ($13,150)