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Old 6 August 2022, 09:01 AM   #751
NeoDough
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HAL330 View Post
when it bottoms out, it will turn on a dime. Always does.
No it doesn't. You were called on this falsehood earlier in the thread yet continue to repeat it. Even the charts you posted demonstrate the opposite.
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Old 6 August 2022, 09:20 AM   #752
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No it doesn't. You were called on this falsehood earlier in the thread yet continue to repeat it. Even the charts you posted demonstrate the opposite.
look again very carefully at those charts and tell me how long the down turns stay at bottom, 2001, 2008, etc.. ... they all "turn on a dime" .. (go from down to up, without a stagnation at bottom) that is a fact, and if you can't see that, you've failed basic math..

We can argue all day as to when this bottom occurs, but just as with the pronouncement of a recession is always delayed (especially when waiting on the BCDC), the recovery is also not recognized until the reverse is demonstrated..


Do what you want with your money, but I'm out buying assets right now.
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Old 6 August 2022, 10:10 AM   #753
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Some FPJ on there now.
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Old 6 August 2022, 11:06 AM   #754
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Do what you want with your money, but I'm out buying assets right now.
Buying assets isn't a bad idea; timing the absolute bottom is impossible (luck). I think where the differences of opinion in this thread lie (we both discussed this earlier), is that I'm not convinced that watches will continue to be considered an "asset class" after the recovery.

We have never seen this level of interest in watches before and there is no guarantee it will return. Sure, there were real collectors paying obscene amounts over MSRP, but there were more people buying watches (aka tulip bulbs) because it was easy money. When the dust settles, the majority of those will have exited the market.
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Old 6 August 2022, 11:13 AM   #755
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I also suspect many of the Covid buyers will have lost interest in watches once their busy lives resume.
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Old 6 August 2022, 11:28 AM   #756
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Do what you want with your money, but I'm out buying assets right now.
As long as it is not watches as "investment" (cough), it is fine. Maybe. (I personally doubt we have bottomed).

Regarding the watches, it has to be understood that the covid years have been a statistical anomaly in watch history. Buying a watch from an AD and making an instant gain of 30% or 2x, 3x, etc. was great but it is not healthy and cannot go forever.

An healthy situation (except newly released models or special models): Buy from AD, take a 20% hit, keep the watch for a long time, enjoy it or put it in a safe (who am I to judge), see its value increase every year very little by little but continuously.

About China, the CPC Central Commission for Discipline Inspection is fighting harder than ever on corruption and "bad behavior" (because of the economical issues). Bad behavior includes showing wealth on Internet or publicly.
Zero-covid policy is the tree hiding the forest. The CPC is engaged in big challenges like corruption (bank, elite families, industry moguls, etc), keeping banks afloat (bank run, balance sheets, etc), construction industry (people refusing to pay, out of liquidity companies), technological war with the US (chip), unemployment, thin margins, companies leaving the country, etc.

People forgot that not long ago (2016, after China introduced new anti-corruption laws), Rolex was said to have bought and destroyed gigantic stock of watches (500M CHF by memory) to avoid a market price fall.

Richemont, 2017: "The Swiss watchmaker Richemont has destroyed nearly €500m (£437m) of its designer timepieces over the past two years to avoid them being sold at knockdown prices."

So forget about Chinese mainlanders buying watches or invest for a looong time.

With uncontrolled (now) inflation in most countries, we are heading back to normal. Facts are suborn things. :)

Take care and safe flight.
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Old 6 August 2022, 06:36 PM   #757
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AP oak offshore music addition
37 mm
Blue dial
Titanium
45k
No buyer for 15 hours already….
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Old 6 August 2022, 06:55 PM   #758
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AP oak offshore music addition
37 mm
Blue dial
Titanium
45k
No buyer for 15 hours already….
I don’t think anyone would want to be caught buying that abomination
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Old Yesterday, 12:14 AM   #759
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Just saw this.

Thank you
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Old Yesterday, 02:32 AM   #760
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New white gold olive dial dd now at 48k. Pepsi auction standing at 18.1k
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Old Yesterday, 03:12 AM   #761
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Originally Posted by eijiboy View Post
New white gold olive dial dd now at 48k. Pepsi auction standing at 18.1k

I'm still on list for that olive wg DD40 at AD. May not make sense to "waste a favor" on it at this point. That's only $4K over the out the door price at my AD.
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Old Yesterday, 04:33 AM   #762
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New white gold olive dial dd now at 48k. Pepsi auction standing at 18.1k
Wow that's crazy. I remember them being advertised around $30k-$32k and people were buying them... shows that there's always a "follow the herd" mentality
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Old Yesterday, 04:40 AM   #763
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Wow that's crazy. I remember them being advertised around $30k-$32k and people were buying them... shows that there's always a "follow the herd" mentality
I think there will be a disconnect for a little while longer. The herd doesn't realize the air has been let out of the luxury watch market yet. Once they do, you'll see less of that kind of behaviour.
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Old Yesterday, 05:57 AM   #764
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Wow that's crazy. I remember them being advertised around $30k-$32k and people were buying them... shows that there's always a "follow the herd" mentality

PM pieces like DD40 RG Olive are trending down. Most yellow gold is near retail right now. I think olive has a good ways down to go.


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Old Yesterday, 10:29 AM   #765
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Watchbox isn't buying anymore, only trades. The biggest preowned dealer who raised something like $350MM in the fall isn't buying. Still more downside to come.
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Old Today, 12:04 AM   #766
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Aug 22 (no date) sub $11.4k from well known dealer.
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Old Today, 01:51 AM   #767
returntorolex
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Originally Posted by Fedpete View Post
Most yellow gold is near retail right now. I think olive has a good ways down to go.
There is one listing on Chrono24 for a 228238 for $38,992. NIB but no card??

What is Moda pricing for the basic (full set) DD40 in YG?
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