Nautilus Starting to lose it's luster?

[brucethemanlee]

If the 5711 tanked in the secondary market to drop to retail or heading in that direction ... Patek, who I’m sure monitors forums and secondary grey market will just discontinue the 5711 and keep the mystique alive

[IBDOC]

Originally Posted by Pim

If you guys gave me a dollar or every time people (falsely) predicted that prices would drop, I could buy myself a Nautilus by now :)

It’s not like you accurately anticipated the meteoric price increase 17’-19’ either, so maybe get off that high horse. Some are simply pointing out that things change and that it’s generally not that easy to predict. Hence being cocksure about Nautilus being forever secure on the throne of hype is... misguided. History is full of once-hyped Patek that are all but forgotten nowadays. Remember when those 5100 Gondolos were the red hot dot-com bubble Nautilus equivalents?

[CastorKrieg]

Originally Posted by cmcm3

To the guys saying they think the Nautilus will NEVER be available for retail... it’s been possible to buy a Nautilus for retail with minimal wait time, or less than retail used, in the last decade. You seriously cannot imagine a situation where sufficient influencing factors combine to get us back to that? EVER??? Come on now... behave yourselves...

Given enough changing factors everything is possible. Around 2010-2014 we had tourbillon mania, now nobody cares. Dual tone watches were hot in the 1980s, then nothing and now 40 years later they are making a comeback (or so the watch companies want you to think).

In the end all comes to demand and supply. Supply is artificially constrained but given PP track record I do not see that changing - Stern made it be known they do not want to end up like AP.
Will demand continue to be there? I do not see social media craze going away, if anything people might move to other watches, but at the top of steel sport watches there is nothing else.

[CastorKrieg]

Originally Posted by rumnyc

Add to that, the only times in recent memory i have actually seen someone in a 5711 is a 18-25 yr old Asian kid in shorts and slippers (i am Asian so i can say that lol) i don’t want to assiciate myself with the daddy’s trust-fund-kid crowd either...


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I would say on the trust-fund front RO is doing much better than Nautilus.

[Pim]

Originally Posted by IBDOC

so maybe get off that high horse.

1. don't try to be a though guy and curb your mouth mr. anonymous
2. I've been hearing this song time and time again. Same as the song about the Rolex Daytona. 30 years ago I refused to pay over list for a SS Daytona, listening to people telling me that prices would drop soon.... guess what, the never did.
3. I think that the whole discussion about the prices of these expensive toys is poisoning the hobby. Hell, even the mods on this forum agreed and closed threads like this for a while but they keep popping up.

A watch is an expensive toy, not an investment. I have been frustrated with the unavailability of some models as well but hoping that the prices will drop and starting thread nr. N* will not change anything.

Bookmark this discussion and all the other ones, come back in 6 months and let's do a retrospective. Much more interesting than this

chill out dude

[bluebeamer]

i have a 5711 and i used to think the 5167 was ugly as sin.

but after 7 years of wearing it, the 5167 is starting to look better and better than the nautilus to me and i'm seriously considering switching LOL

[Calatrava r]

From what I hear the hot watch market is hotter than ever. The pullback some thought would happen was so short and not much at all. What happened is all that money that did not get spent on entertainment, travel, work attire and restaurant meals is going into luxury goods. The high end car, watch and house market is booming. Also, home renovations. Banks cannot keep up with loan apps. We were at a high line car dealer yesterday and they have had been best sales numbers in the last two months in their 30 year history. No one can get product whatever it is. People are not selling which is odd. This is probably because every YouTube video which all said not to sell into this "down" sellers market. Less used cars and watches coming for sale. New supply lines were mostly completed goods with the effects of the shutdowns to be felt shortly in supply disruptions. Its a great time to sell, but unless you can buy retail, I would wait on buying a watch. The long term economic effects of the shutdowns will not be felt for quite a while and they may be nothing or impactful. Have to wait and see if demand softens and people start liquidating their stuff. Definitely not happening at the moment and hopefully, will not happen.

[pdnb]

Originally Posted by Calatrava r

From what I hear the hot watch market is hotter than ever. The pullback some thought would happen was so short and not much at all. What happened is all that money that did not get spent on entertainment, travel, work attire and restaurant meals is going into luxury goods. The high end car, watch and house market is booming. Also, home renovations. Banks cannot keep up with loan apps. We were at a high line car dealer yesterday and they have had been best sales numbers in the last two months in their 30 year history. No one can get product whatever it is. People are not selling which is odd. This is probably because every YouTube video which all said not to sell into this "down" sellers market. Less used cars and watches coming for sale. New supply lines were mostly completed goods with the effects of the shutdowns to be felt shortly in supply disruptions. Its a great time to sell, but unless you can buy retail, I would wait on buying a watch. The long term economic effects of the shutdowns will not be felt for quite a while and they may be nothing or impactful. Have to wait and see if demand softens and people start liquidating their stuff. Definitely not happening at the moment and hopefully, will not happen.

This makes sense. I wouldn’t have expected it hard to buy a car now. But my watches cost more than my cars. LOL

That being said, I was just discussing with my buddy how the economics for buying luxury goods in these regimes 30K+ is totally different than a $5-10k watch.


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[AAP8]

I think the market will soften - just like it did back in 2008 - but its not dropping back to retail - there are a lot of smart people who have the capital to buy these watches at a premium - but now in 2020 there are good opportunities elsewhere on how to deploy $65K or more to get a better return - so I can see a lot of those people not buying the watch and investing it elsewhere and waiting on the watches. That will soften demand a little in my mind.

My father was about to pull the trigger on a 5990 recently - and decided it was better to invest in growing his business because there was an opportunity to buy the building that we were renting space in - so he used the 5990 cash to just put the down payment on the building as these types of scenarios are going to happen a lot as people who have over leveraged their money are hit with the reality of what COVID will really mean to the economy in the US. I personally see a lot of good real estate deals coming in the fall when people who have over leveraged their buildings start to have too many people stop paying rent and they can't cover their costs.

In summary - will the Nautilus crash - no - but will the market soften - I think so as smart money moves its cash into long term investments - I see a new watch bubble starting in 24 months when those people reenter the watch market.

[subtona]

Who’s going to be first to sell their nautilus for 25?

[IBDOC]

Originally Posted by Pim

1. don't try to be a though guy and curb your mouth mr. anonymous
2. I've been hearing this song time and time again. Same as the song about the Rolex Daytona. 30 years ago I refused to pay over list for a SS Daytona, listening to people telling me that prices would drop soon.... guess what, the never did.
3. I think that the whole discussion about the prices of these expensive toys is poisoning the hobby. Hell, even the mods on this forum agreed and closed threads like this for a while but they keep popping up.

A watch is an expensive toy, not an investment. I have been frustrated with the unavailability of some models as well but hoping that the prices will drop and starting thread nr. N* will not change anything.

Bookmark this discussion and all the other ones, come back in 6 months and let's do a retrospective. Much more interesting than this

chill out dude

I bought a SS Daytona under list as recently as 2011. Around that time the 5711 was readily available with AD rebates and no waiting time. And no, don’t move the goalposts. I don’t purport to be able to predict the future nor do I believe a Nautilus will be available for under list in 6 months either, for that matter. But in 20 years? The over/under on the 5711 being a total dog like the 5100 isn’t that clear cut. That, and the fact that denying that possibility is asinine, are the only points I’m trying to make.

[doramas]

I think the price of 60-70k will hold up for a long time.

[Calatrava r]

Originally Posted by IBDOC

I bought a SS Daytona under list as recently as 2011. Around that time the 5711 was readily available with AD rebates and no waiting time. And no, don’t move the goalposts. I don’t purport to be able to predict the future nor do I believe a Nautilus will be available for under list in 6 months either, for that matter. But in 20 years? The over/under on the 5711 being a total dog like the 5100 isn’t that clear cut. That, and the fact that denying that possibility is asinine, are the only points I’m trying to make.

I do not think denying the possibilities is asinine which is a harsh word where opinions are involved. The market on the 5711 is strong and should remain so for the foreseeable future given the low production. As someone else said, as soon as the star fades on it , it will be discontinued. Do you ever see the white 5711 tanking? I do not. SS most likely topped already, but it may re-visit that top this year or next given the special supply interruptions. But it is a safe bet if you were lucky to have one at retail. Selling below retail, used, not likely.

[Murcielagoboy2]

Originally Posted by Bmw1

Hello fellow members
I am actually starting to think that the prices on these is actually pretty nuts, and I really don't think it's justified what so ever, this watch is so so over priced and after sometime with it I think people are crazy now a days paying 60-70k for this piece or any Nautilus for that matter.
What do you guys think? Do you think the Nautilus market will soften in the near future?
I think these will drop to 25-35k in the near future which is a fair price for this watch
All inputs are appreciated.
Thank you.

At last.
Someone with some sense.

I don’t think they’ll be at Retail for some time but Nautilus and Aquanaut are the biggest load of BS hype I can think of in the watch market. I speak as an owner.

[IBDOC]

Originally Posted by Calatrava r

I do not think denying the possibilities is asinine which is a harsh word where opinions are involved. The market on the 5711 is strong and should remain so for the foreseeable future given the low production. As someone else said, as soon as the star fades on it , it will be discontinued. Do you ever see the white 5711 tanking? I do not. SS most likely topped already, but it may re-visit that top this year or next given the special supply interruptions. But it is a safe bet if you were lucky to have one at retail. Selling below retail, used, not likely.

The 5100 was a limited edition and it still tanked after being the hottest thing around for a while. Production numbers for Patek may be steady and small but demand and preferences are fickle. Doesn’t matter whatever Patek does or does not do in terms of production, in a longer perspective even set-in-stone facts such as SS sport watches being widely popular, PP’s position as the top brand in luxury watchmaking, or even mechanical watches still being a thing at all are subject to change. But hell, I’m sure a lot of us would be adamantly long-term bullish on complicated pocket watches if this was 1920 instead of 2020.

[SL BRABUS]

Originally Posted by S``

Nice fake 5711... That purplish tint never existed in the real thing. Come on man...

Originally Posted by S``

That branding PP plate on the 5711 isnt found on a 2013... Quit lying too

+1....^^^......

I did an investigation on the OP....

All I could say is this......

OP is trolling us.....lol.....

[ts3]

Originally Posted by IBDOC

The 5100 was a limited edition and it still tanked after being the hottest thing around for a while. Production numbers for Patek may be steady and small but demand and preferences are fickle. Doesn’t matter whatever Patek does or does not do in terms of production, in a longer perspective even set-in-stone facts such as SS sport watches being widely popular, PP’s position as the top brand in luxury watchmaking, or even mechanical watches still being a thing at all are subject to change. But hell, I’m sure a lot of us would be adamantly long-term bullish on complicated pocket watches if this was 1920 instead of 2020.

Well said. More likely than anything the Nautilus hype will die from lack of demand once the next big thing shows up around the corner, whatever that may be and whenever this will happen, or people will just get bored, or... not...

[scarlet knight]

Originally Posted by JR16

Unless there is a nuclear war or Covid kills half the earth’s population, there is no chance the 5711a ever sells for less than retail in the next 10 years. Anyone who thinks otherwise is just dreaming.... my 2 cents.


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Anything is possible.

[mongrelnomoad]

Originally Posted by IBDOC

PP’s position as the top brand in luxury watchmaking, or even mechanical watches still being a thing at all are subject to change.

It would be hard to argue that PP is outperforming Lange, FPJ or VC of late. Old greats and new upstarts are nipping at the heels, and it would take someone heavy drunk on the company kool-aid to say that Patek’s position currently looks impregnable.

Regarding the Nautilus - I love it (at least the 5711 and 5712), I would own one if I could source one at rrp, but if you put them up against the Odysseus and Linesport side-by-side, with their hefty bezels and lumpy bracelets, they begin to look a little old-fashioned (if still svelte and lovely). And that’s before you start comparing movements, finishing etc...

[AK797]

Originally Posted by ts3

Well said. More likely than anything the Nautilus hype will die from lack of demand once the next big thing shows up around the corner, whatever that may be and whenever this will happen, or people will just get bored, or... not...

I have to say I'm very curious to see what the next big thing in watches will be to displace this, the Nautilus' rush to buy was quite a shocker in 16 when it happened right after the Brexit trigger, but that is what all the currency arbitragers went wildly for, along with the hot Rolex SS, it was a completely unexpected modern hypebeast for such a traditional old boy, as the above post also alludes to.

[IBDOC]

Originally Posted by AK797

I have to say I'm very curious to see what the next big thing in watches will be to displace this, the Nautilus' rush to buy was quite a shocker in 16 when it happened right after the Brexit trigger, but that is what all the currency arbitragers went wildly for, along with the hot Rolex SS, it was a completely unexpected modern hypebeast for such a traditional old boy, as the above post also alludes to.

No didn’t you hear? Watch history surely ends with the Nautilus forever remaining the undisputed king. And then we all lived happily ever after.

[DC116710LN]

There's been a meteoric rise in broader watch prices over the past few years that is unsustainable, in my opinion. If the global economy does stagnate as some seem to think it will/should, my best guess is that prices revert to 30-50% above retail for the most popular items (Nautilus, Daytona) and 0-20% for the tier of slightly less popular models (remaining SS Rolexes for example). That being said, this is purely speculative and I could very well be completely wrong.

[GB-man]

I’ll die on this hill. The nautilus will be available at retail again.

[Bmw1]

This watch doesn’t deserve the hype that’s around not even close, and for all of you who think Patek sports will always be as popular think again, trends change all the time, and btw if I was looking for a watch for around 60-70k I’d be looking at something like urwerk or mb&f these watches offer so much more than a 3 hander Patek with a date. And are actually rare.
Btw there is more than 500 5711’s for sale on chrono24 and you guys call it rare.



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[PPcollector]

The 5711 has been one of the most iconic and prestigious references any watch manufacturer will produce. It has it’s own legacy... cannot compare this watch to any other. If you want a Urwerk or MB&F then by all means go for it. Rarity is based on supply/demand. You can have a watch that is ultra rare by Urwerk producing only 100 per year BUT if nobody wants one...well, is it rare among say 100 or even 1000 people who may want one?? 1 out of 10...Not really. 5711 on the other hand might be 1 in 50 odds of getting one at msrp.

[DC116710LN]

Originally Posted by GB-man

I’ll die on this hill. The nautilus will be available at retail again.

I genuinely hope you're right. I'd be first in line for the blue 5711 and 5726. They fit my smaller wrists quite nicely

[JBP99p]

Originally Posted by Bmw1

This watch doesn’t deserve the hype that’s around not even close, and for all of you who think Patek sports will always be as popular think again, trends change all the time, and btw if I was looking for a watch for around 60-70k I’d be looking at something like urwerk or mb&f these watches offer so much more than a 3 hander Patek with a date. And are actually rare.
Btw there is more than 500 5711’s for sale on chrono24 and you guys call it rare.



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Who the f*ck wants an urwerk or mb&f! Why do people waste their energy on shite posts like this!

[JR16]

Originally Posted by DC116710LN

I genuinely hope you're right. I'd be first in line for the blue 5711 and 5726. They fit my smaller wrists quite nicely

Let’s say hypothetically a 5711/12 becomes easily attainable at retail 10 years from now? Is that really relevant to someone who wants one now ? That’s a long time of not being to enjoy a watch. So what “cost” per year to enjoy it sooner is it worth ? Well, that will be a diff number for everyone. Don’t get me wrong, I would never pay market price now- but someone whose salary is quadruple mine? Maybe it’s worth it to them. (Full disclosure, I got my 5712 in 2019 at retail from an AD....and IMO it is worth the hype, price aside).


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[Nav01L]

Everything falls out of fashion eventually... think about the Rolex Milgauss, Franck Muller, Hublot, heck, even mechanical watches as a whole at one point... We have only been in this bubble for about 4 years or so. Ten years ago, you’d have got a not insignificant discount on these watches. A lot can happen over the next ten years. The thing is though, by the time prices normalize, many of you won’t want one anymore either...

[mongrelnomoad]

Originally Posted by PPcollector

The 5711 has been one of the most iconic and prestigious references any watch manufacturer will produce. It has it’s own legacy... cannot compare this watch to any other. .

Eh... not to undermine the Nautilus but it was far from “iconic”, let alone “one of the most iconic... references” until the mad hype of the last few years. When I bought my Royal Oak in the ‘90s, the Nautilus was very much considered “the other” Genta steel sports watch, and a bit of a cynical copycat.

Kool-aid y’all.