Have we reached lala land yet?

[Dan S]

I started to write a response about how it is naive to think that any collectible market will necessarily rise indefinitely, but then I realized that it would be as pointless as every other post in every thread on this topic. ;-)

Nevertheless, carry on with the thread, and I will continue to read every post with great anticipation. This topic is like a traffic accident ... I just can't look away.

[1665fan]

I have unpolished 1680 for trade if someone has a 116520 or 500c they want to trade....save some money for you lol instead of paying 20k lol

[swish77]

Originally Posted by springer

Sorry Aaron, but prices were down for a few models, especially for the high-dollar models, in 2007 after the market crashed - at least for a year or two.

Yes, of course, if there is a worldwide recession again everything would most likely drop, but there is always going to be a bit of a roller coaster up and down over a period of a couple of years. My point is that prices will continue to climb longer term. Does anyone really think that, say, a collector example 1675 or 5513 will be cheaper five years from now?

Originally Posted by Sublovin

Your economics 101 class must not have covered the correlation between the sudden pullback on consumer discretionary spending caused by recession resulting in inventory surplus with the need for many to still liquidate, followed by lower prices (buyers market).

Well, I'm sure this theory works for a lot of things, but let's keep in mind that buying a vintage Rolex is often very emotional, not just a commodity in which to invest. These class-room theories don't always apply to everything being bought and sold. Do I really need another vintage Rolex? Of course, not. But man, I still look every day to see if there's something I might want to buy.

[roh123]

I think a lot of vintage watches are bought as investment these days. Let’s see what happens when prices now get more stable. I doubt people will invest more money in something that flatlines or even declines in value.

It will be an exciting year to see what happens. Auction market was for sure softer than expected last year. I think it will continue and also affect the market in general.

Can’t say I have a crystal ball though. I just don’t see non-rare standard watches moving up much further. Top examples where rarity plays a part are probably still cheap. This is however a very small niche where very few people play.

[Sublovin]

Originally Posted by swish77

Well, I'm sure this theory works for a lot of things, but let's keep in mind that buying a vintage Rolex is often very emotional, not just a commodity in which to invest. These class-room theories don't always apply to everything being bought and sold. Do I really need another vintage Rolex? Of course, not. But man, I still look every day to see if there's something I might want to buy.

Many buy what they like (emotion), but many have entered the game simply as investment. People who have purchased as investors view their watch as inventory and it is a commodity (no emotional tie). This means they will still need to liquidate in a downturn which would cause price drops.
Don’t some buy houses with emotion as well as cars? These items are still subject to market crashes as we have seen before. Vintage Rolex is no different and is ripe for a major correction

[1665fan]

Anyway you slice it a vintage watch can go up more and faster than most vintage cars with hardly no upkeep costs....that will bring investors in the game

[Dr Watches]

Originally Posted by mrs_LA

I agree with what you said, however, I didn't mean that collectors wore these watches carelessly. I meant to say you can't turn an old watch back to factory - the older it gets, the more 'hairline scratches' there are. Sooner or later, a good condition, unpolished case will be harder to find than a watch that has seen its fair share of desk diving marks, or a watch that has had its scars polished off. As we know, collectors prefer unpolished, untouched original watches AND in great condition. These are going to get harder, and harder to come by as years go by with old watches.

There are so many "unpolished" watches out there that have been built back up via laser welding and lapping.

Unpolished wasn't even really a thing when I got into the hobby circa 2000.

[tekno]

Originally Posted by Dr Watches

There are so many "unpolished" watches out there that have been built back up via laser welding and lapping.



Unpolished wasn't even really a thing when I got into the hobby circa 2000.

I think he means truly unpolished watches vs re-cut.

If you can’t afford a perfect watch, pay for your watch, or one of them to get recut and move on with life. Maybe add the chamfers back only.

Let the guys with the means buy safe queens and you buy what you can afford. Stay in your lane, and hope the market implodes so you can buy all the watches your heart desires.




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[Filipão]

Originally Posted by timedate

If interest rates rose to the levels they once were, most of these luxury asset prices would drop through the floor.

People used to get this thing called 'interest' on their savings, it seems an incredible thing now, a basic no penalty, no fixed term account would pay someone 4 to 5 percent.

Somebody with one million pounds could get 40 thousand pounds a year for doing nothing, and having no risk whatsoever.

Its been a good 8 or 9 years now since interest like this vanished, there will be a generation of people who who wouldnt know what the hell it was, it was something that went on for hundreds of years, but ceased abruptly, hence the reason why luxury assets have skyrocketed.

Just that. Well said, very well indeed.

[exador]

Originally Posted by tekno

Stay in your lane

...on the WIS Highway

[swish77]

Originally Posted by Sublovin

Many buy what they like (emotion), but many have entered the game simply as investment. People who have purchased as investors view their watch as inventory and it is a commodity (no emotional tie). This means they will still need to liquidate in a downturn which would cause price drops.
Don’t some buy houses with emotion as well as cars? These items are still subject to market crashes as we have seen before. Vintage Rolex is no different and is ripe for a major correction

Vintage watches, like other small collectibles, are very different than houses and cars, although I agree there are definitely pure investors now in this "hobby," of course.

Let's revisit this post in five years, and if the general prices for collector-grade vintage Rolex sports watches (5513, 1675, red/white 1680, 6263/5, etc ...) are significantly less than they are today, I'll buy everyone on this thread a beer. (As long as you're in NYC.)

[1665fan]

Would it be stupid to trade a naked 1680 unpolished for a 16610lv complete??? What are y’alls thoughts on that??

[roh123]

Originally Posted by 1665fan

Would it be stupid to trade a naked 1680 unpolished for a 16610lv complete??? What are y’alls thoughts on that??

Get the watch you like more.

[zapokee]

Originally Posted by 1665fan

Would it be stupid to trade a naked 1680 unpolished for a 16610lv complete??? What are y’alls thoughts on that??

Yes, it would.

[Mik8yu]

Originally Posted by 1665fan

Would it be stupid to trade a naked 1680 unpolished for a 16610lv complete??? What are y’alls thoughts on that??

As much as I lust after a Kermit I wouldn’t give up an unpolished example of 1680 even it may not be a complete set. As time goes by unpolished example will dry up. That should happen much quicker for 1680 than the Kermit.


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[GADNYC]

Provenance is becoming more and more important, as it should. Sublovin mentioned cobbled together franken examples and these are the most susceptible to a drop in demand and concurrent price. IMHO a vintage full set will be (already are) untouchable.