New Nautilus line soon?

[lapince]

Originally Posted by KarlS

The point is the people in the salons and AD know squat! They are told 24 hours before any reveal. So they speculate pure and simple. I was referring to someone significantly up the value chain

Oh ok, I thought it was like the director of the salon or something like that. Well if he is a good friend and is in the know, I guess he would tell you the truth, if it is not the case well anything is possible...

[tinygears]

A bit off topic, and with apologies if this has been discussed (I did search and found nothing substantive), does Patek disclose production numbers?

I now have a huge collection of two pieces, the latest being a 5726, and am wondering how many might actually be produced?

Any info would be appreciated.

tg

[lapince]

Originally Posted by tinygears

A bit off topic, and with apologies if this has been discussed (I did search and found nothing substantive), does Patek disclose production numbers?

I now have a huge collection of two pieces, the latest being a 5726, and am wondering how many might actually be produced?

Any info would be appreciated.

tg

lol on the "huge collection", 2 is a great number, better 2 good pieces than 20. From everything I heard and read, mostly here, one thing Patek does not do is disclose production numbers...

[tinygears]

Appreciated. Presume that's why I'm not finding numbers.

With my huge collection of two, I'm in awe of some members here, who have gathered the stuff that dreams are made of.

[lapince]

Originally Posted by tinygears

Appreciated. Presume that's why I'm not finding numbers.

With my huge collection of two, I'm in awe of some members here, who have gathered the stuff that dreams are made of.

Don't forget that big collections are not for everyone, some people, like me when I had 10 watches, 2 of which were PP, wear only the 1-3 they prefer and the others get no wrist time, at all, and some manage to have many and make a rotation, but yes some members have incredible watches no doubt about that, but with a 5726 you have a very nice one as well

[KarlS]

Originally Posted by tinygears

A bit off topic, and with apologies if this has been discussed (I did search and found nothing substantive), does Patek disclose production numbers?

I now have a huge collection of two pieces, the latest being a 5726, and am wondering how many might actually be produced?

Any info would be appreciated.

tg

Broadly 55 000 per annum. 10 000 are quartz (ladies watches), 20% are SS, 12 000 manual wind, 33 000 automatic. But on each model no!

[PJ S]

^
That's the "official" number — the real number is in the 80k region, so I was informed.

[KarlS]

Originally Posted by PJ S

^
That's the "official" number — the real number is in the 80k region, so I was informed.

A dangerous game for a brand relying totally on its reputation to be caught lying!! That could have a significant back lash!

[sameer222]

Seems to me that appreciation for the 5726 has been gathering some steam. Duly, in my opinion. What an underrated watch! Seemed to be all love for the 5712 when it came to discussions on Nautilus on this forum up till recently!

[lapince]

Originally Posted by KarlS

A dangerous game for a brand relying totally on its reputation to be caught lying!! That could have a significant back lash!

WOW, if it turned out to be true I can imagine the scandal, salespeople lying is one thing, but the direction of Patek? If it were true that is one of the problems of independent watmakers we so like here, no investors so no need to give real numbers to the public, after all we are just taking their word on it, nothing more...

Originally Posted by sameer222

Seems to me that appreciation for the 5726 has been gathering some steam. Duly, in my opinion. What an underrated watch! Seemed to be all love for the 5712 when it came to discussions on Nautilus on this forum up till recently!

It is my second or third favorite Nautilus, I had it in grey on strap, great watch but most of the time I found the grey color to be boring next to the blue of my 5712 and also I made the big mistake to get it on strap, a Nautilus needs to be on bracelet, the favorite is the 5711 here, and only after the 5712, why? ultra thin and blue IMHO, but it is a great watch for sure, had it been on bracelet and even better with a blue dial I would have loved it as much as the 5712

[texex91]

Originally Posted by PJ S

^
That's the "official" number — the real number is in the 80k region, so I was informed.

70k would not surprise me.

Originally Posted by KarlS

A dangerous game for a brand relying totally on its reputation to be caught lying!! That could have a significant back lash!

A watch company not tell the truth...say it isn't so

[KarlS]

Originally Posted by texex91

70k would not surprise me.



A watch company not tell the truth...say it isn't so

You mean I am not first on the list?????

[martinr]

Below is from a member of this forum and his observations from a trip to Patek in 2013. Member is myopiccoog.


Takeaways from Geneva
I wanted to follow up and give some insight to collectors based on what I saw in Geneva. They really did give us a look under the hood. We saw even production sheets that stated how many pieces for the run and how many runs per year. I wont speak specifically to that given their transparency. Bottom line, those of you who think the best days of Patek are behind them are crazy. Here are a few facts I am comfortable sharing:

-53000 watches per year
-12000 quarts watches
- 41000 mechanical watches a year
-5% of mechanical production are grand complications
- The remaining are complications, calatrava, gondola, nautilis, aquanaunt-nonquarts
- So ~2100 grand comps a year
- there are 38 grand comp references for 2013/14 (35 men, 3 woman)

So bottom line, those of you who believe that Patek is over producing their grand complications due to moving to in house movements are wrong. They are most likely producing the same to less. yes there are many more 5140 than 5208 but 2100 piece per year of their "flagship line" is still small.

Also, even though the reference is still in the catalog. Doesn't mean they are physically still making them. For example I asked a watch maker about the 5270G (surprise! :) ) and they said they haven't assembled one since Dec or Jan.

Also every thing is still hand finished from cases to bracelets to dials!

[KarlS]

Originally Posted by martinr

Below is from a member of this forum and his observations from a trip to Patek in 2013. Member is myopiccoog.


Takeaways from Geneva
I wanted to follow up and give some insight to collectors based on what I saw in Geneva. They really did give us a look under the hood. We saw even production sheets that stated how many pieces for the run and how many runs per year. I wont speak specifically to that given their transparency. Bottom line, those of you who think the best days of Patek are behind them are crazy. Here are a few facts I am comfortable sharing:

-53000 watches per year
-12000 quarts watches
- 41000 mechanical watches a year
-5% of mechanical production are grand complications
- The remaining are complications, calatrava, gondola, nautilis, aquanaunt-nonquarts
- So ~2100 grand comps a year
- there are 38 grand comp references for 2013/14 (35 men, 3 woman)

So bottom line, those of you who believe that Patek is over producing their grand complications due to moving to in house movements are wrong. They are most likely producing the same to less. yes there are many more 5140 than 5208 but 2100 piece per year of their "flagship line" is still small.

Also, even though the reference is still in the catalog. Doesn't mean they are physically still making them. For example I asked a watch maker about the 5270G (surprise! :) ) and they said they haven't assembled one since Dec or Jan.

Also every thing is still hand finished from cases to bracelets to dials!

Kind of supports the numbers I quoted which were from a Thierry Stern interview in 2014

[texex91]

Originally Posted by martinr

Below is from a member of this forum and his observations from a trip to Patek in 2013. Member is myopiccoog.


Takeaways from Geneva
I wanted to follow up and give some insight to collectors based on what I saw in Geneva. They really did give us a look under the hood. We saw even production sheets that stated how many pieces for the run and how many runs per year. I wont speak specifically to that given their transparency. Bottom line, those of you who think the best days of Patek are behind them are crazy. Here are a few facts I am comfortable sharing:

-53000 watches per year
-12000 quarts watches
- 41000 mechanical watches a year
-5% of mechanical production are grand complications
- The remaining are complications, calatrava, gondola, nautilis, aquanaunt-nonquarts
- So ~2100 grand comps a year
- there are 38 grand comp references for 2013/14 (35 men, 3 woman)

So bottom line, those of you who believe that Patek is over producing their grand complications due to moving to in house movements are wrong. They are most likely producing the same to less. yes there are many more 5140 than 5208 but 2100 piece per year of their "flagship line" is still small.

Also, even though the reference is still in the catalog. Doesn't mean they are physically still making them. For example I asked a watch maker about the 5270G (surprise! :) ) and they said they haven't assembled one since Dec or Jan.

Also every thing is still hand finished from cases to bracelets to dials!

Good points Martin. Would be interesting to know how 2016 numbers shake out.

70-80 is not realistic, but think 60k might not be out of the question in the future.

Who knows...well besides Thierry

[martinr]

In that watch-insider interview Thierry makes a few points about the new building in Plan les Oautes and increasing quantity. The new building was built for cash, auto finance he calls it, so no bank loan, and he says quantity increase is 1% to 3% per year. He's very convincing and I believe he's being honest. Listen at the 14:20 mark.

[lapince]

Very interesting, had already read these figures, probably here on the post of this member, it can seem a lot when comparing to Lange or independents, but nothing if compared to Rolex and Omega, , in any case they do, IMHO, the 2 best dressy sport watches on the market, 5711/5712, followed closely by the AP 15202, and seeing how difficult these 2 are to get in Europe, France especially, I don't think there will be any problems on these models, as well a for the 5167, and maybe some big collectors with very expensive pieces are shying away from them, have no clue apart from what members here who are such collectors or who know them write, but they are IMO, the most interesting brand around in terms of offer, in variety, complications and style, and if they lower the service times with their new building then we would live in an almost perfect world just my

[RussW]

Originally Posted by PJ S

^
That's the "official" number — the real number is in the 80k region, so I was informed.

Informed by who?

[PJ S]

^
A boutique manager relayed what his big Patek collectors had mentioned.
Whether it’s 60, 70 or 80K per annum, ignoring the spread, it’s obvious to us all that they are producing too much, at the expense of service timeframes and a more robust QC procedure.

[texex91]

Originally Posted by PJ S

^
A boutique manager relayed what his big Patek collectors had mentioned.
Whether it’s 60, 70 or 80K per annum, ignoring the spread, it’s obvious to us all that they are producing too much, at the expense of service timeframes and a more robust QC procedure.

About as reliable as I heard it from my dog sitters brother, who heard it from his cousin, who heard it from their doctor...etc, etc.

Give me a break

[martinr]

[lapince]

I wouldn't be surprised if only the Sterns and 5-10 people at Patek only knew the real numbers, we probably will have a better chance of knowing one day if aliens live amongst us, oh wait they do, just go on youtube than knowing the real figures

[KarlS]

Originally Posted by PJ S

^
A boutique manager relayed what his big Patek collectors had mentioned.
Whether it’s 60, 70 or 80K per annum, ignoring the spread, it’s obvious to us all that they are producing too much, at the expense of service timeframes and a more robust QC procedure.

So we now quote as fact...that a PP staff member was told by one of his customers what the secret production numbers of PP are??????

Now I was told by someone significantly higher than a boutique manager that the 5711 is going to be very desirable at the end of the year....should I propose that the 5711 is thus going to be discontinued for a 40 th anniversary replacement? The only thing obvious to me is that I can only go by what Thierry Stern himself says

[lapince]

Originally Posted by KarlS

Now I was told by someone significantly higher than a boutique manager that the 5711 is going to be very desirable at the end of the year....should I propose that the 5711 is thus going to be discontinued for a 40 th anniversary replacement? The only thing obvious to me is that I can only go by what Thierry Stern himself says

Well the 5711 being more desirable could mean 2 things, either they are making a new model, bigger in size which would make the better proportioned, IMHO if I consider what I saw for the 39 and 41mm RO's, more desirable by the "classic guys", basically 99% of us here, or it won't be replaced and there will be nothing approaching it, so the people who were hoping for a new style one will want to get the 5711, funny how it could mean 2 totally opposite things, or even more, as you said only Thierry and a few others know for sure what there will be

[KarlS]

Originally Posted by lapince

Well the 5711 being more desirable could mean 2 things, either they are making a new model, bigger in size which would make the better proportioned, IMHO if I consider what I saw for the 39 and 41mm RO's, more desirable by the "classic guys", basically 99% of us here, or it won't be replaced and there will be nothing approaching it, so the people who were hoping for a new style one will want to get the 5711, funny how it could mean 2 totally opposite things, or even more, as you said only Thierry and a few others know for sure what there will be

Ha you understand the very clever nuances used!!! Yes it could mean that a new model would make the old much more desirable or that everyone has delayed buying a 5711 expecting a 40th and now that there isn't one there will be a rush of buyers to order the existing model..

[Abdullasaif]

Originally Posted by texex91

ON SOAPBOX

Bring on some platinum, maybe something a little larger and something maybe...oh, I don't know...interesting (material, case, shape, dial--something)?

PP, IMHO, needs a little ummmf in the sports line.

Here's to hoping (oh and PLEASE change that darn bracelet clasp!)

OFF SOAPBOX

The clasp attaches to those annoying ceramic balls if one pops out you need to pay for a new link yourself. Definitely needs improvement

[PJ S]

Originally Posted by KarlS

So we now quote as fact...that a PP staff member was told by one of his customers what the secret production numbers of PP are?

Something wrong with taking information at face value? Are we’re supposed to be suspicious of everything ever said, by anyone?
Who benefits from exaggerating Patek’s production output? If no-one, then why bother in the first place?
Moreover, who’s to say the clients haven’t been informed by very senior personnel, and the info has been revealed during the course of a general chit chat.

Remember, it was 54K 3 years ago, and that shortly after they took QC internal rather than have independently done by the Geneva Seal.
Was it a cost saving exercise or more a case of increasing production without anyone knowing exactly by how much?

[Dewitte]

The other item to expect for the new Nautilus line.... A BIG price jump, like we have seen with some of Patek's other recent updates.

There is no reason why a Calatrava 5227 with the same movement costs almost 2x the price of the far more popular 5711... It's simply that the Nautilus line hasn't had a major update yet in many years.

This also explains (in my mind) the other comments that the 5711 'will be in very high demand' at the end of the year.. It's probably the last chance to get one before the price doubles to $40k.

And yes, at 40k I think people will still easily buy it. A 'standard' 3700 from 1978 just sold at auction for $100k this week.. the demand is there

[martinr]

PJ, I think one of the reasons Patek went with the PP seal instead of the Geneva seal was due to some fabrication being done outside of the geographical area for the Geneva seal to be used, not so they could lower their quality standard and make more watches without anyone finding out.

Dewitte, what recent price increase are you referring to? Prices were reduced in the US, a major market. There hasn't been an increase in quite awhile and comparing vintage prices and current production pricing isn't the same thing.

Also,the movement isn't all there is to the cost of production, the 5227 has a hinged case back which isn't easy to make, there is a video of it on the Patek website. The 5227 is not double the price of a 5711 so let's not misinform people.

[Dewitte]

Originally Posted by martinr

Dewitte, what recent price increase are you referring to? Prices were reduced in the US, a major market. There hasn't been an increase in quite awhile and comparing vintage prices and current production pricing isn't the same thing.

Also,the movement isn't all there is to the cost of production, the 5227 has a hinged case back which isn't easy to make, there is a video of it on the Patek website. The 5227 is not double the price of a 5711 so let's not misinform people.

Hey martinr.. Re price increase, I was thinking a Patek update along the lines of the perpetual calendar change we saw in the move from the 3940 into the 5327.. The result is an upgraded, but still v similar watch, but the price went from 55k to 95k. Are the differences between the 3940 and 5327 worth an 80% price jump? IMO , no, and Patek used the 'updated model' to justify ramping up the price. Hence my view they'll do the same w the 40th anniversary 'updated model' Nautilus, with Patek knowing people will still buy it at a 40k entry point! (As for the across the line price cuts they did last year, that's a separate currency valuation effect, not the 'new product line' reasoning I'm suggesting)

Re 5227 and 5711 price comparison, it's 38k vs 22.5k (in Hong Kong anyway), so the 5227 is nearly 2x the price, or more accurately 78% more! I appreciate the 5227 has qualities which justify the price, my only point is given the relative popularity of the Nautilus, Patek could equally justify aligning those prices a bit more closely!

Let's see.. Im sure at the very least we can agree its quite unlikely they come out with a decrease in the price!!!