Has the Nautilus bubble... dare I say it... slowed down?

[BobDyl]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

The lower price one is dated 2011 warrantee. Which means it’s been worn. Probably polished too
The 75 one also has been worn and was a 2018 watch

Neither of these are new. New is straddling the 100k mark

Hmm, I can't find any evidence for 5711s selling at $100K, only in the occasional inflated asking price. Chrono24 theoretically tracks selling prices, and has unworn at approx $75K, range $70K - $80K.

$100K for a current production 5711 with no real rarity is pure madness.

[GB-man]

Originally Posted by soundserious

Own both, if I had to pick the car would be gone. But, and this is important, the people that own these cars or own these watches don’t have to pick.

I have had 911s as well I was more saying that the products to me are not of comparable value. I thought the 5711 was a stretch at 23k when I bought mine. I thought my 911 was an absolute steal at 100k.

Originally Posted by nyc2la

Makes sense. And we really never are done... there always is another watch.

Yes the sickness does not simply leave you

[The Argonaut]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

I like peak stupid

If I had a 5711, it would be hard not to sell it in this market. Easy money.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[The Argonaut]

Originally Posted by BobDyl

I liked Tim Mosso's take on the 5711 which is that at retail it's a steal but at 3X retail it's absurd.

Absolutely. I'd be interested to know just how many 5711/5712 are selling for 3x the amount. Clearly some are. I wonder if $75k represents the summit. Madness.

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by The Argonaut

Absolutely. I'd be interested to know just how many 5711/5712 are selling for 3x the amount. Clearly some are. I wonder if $75k represents the summit. Madness.

Remember chrono24 is only registered transactions through chrono 24.



That said I love peak stupid.

[Calatrava r]

I think they clearly hit and pass 100K soon. Govberg predicts 100K by end of summer.

[cascavel]

We saw this same thing last summer. Folks leave town, prices stabilize, sales slow down and everyone assumes the end has arrived. Then, in September, life begins again and prices rise anew. By now all Patek ADs have received their last shipments till October and anyone who hasn't gotten their promised allocated watch will have to agonize and hope for a pre-Christmas delivery.

[cascavel]

And it looks like the 5711 White has caught up with the 5711 Blue. No crash yet.

[AK797]

Originally Posted by cascavel

And it looks like the 5711 White has caught up with the 5711 Blue. No crash yet.

5164a has caught the RG now too, both £60k. 5711a and RG have a large difference still, around £30k.

[bob101]

If these are the crazy prices for production pieces makes you wonder regarding the discontinued nautilus pieces. Haven't seen a correlation as yet though.

[SL BRABUS]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

The lower price one is dated 2011 warrantee. Which means it’s been worn. Probably polished too
The 75 one also has been worn and was a 2018 watch

Neither of these are new. New is straddling the 100k mark

The one that dated 2011 had been polished for sure.....

You can tell by the octagon angles are not sharp and crisp....

[patrolmi]

Quite the opposite-- I think it's still parabolic. Aquanaut on Chrono24 moves up daily.

[cascavel]

Originally Posted by bob101

If these are the crazy prices for production pieces makes you wonder regarding the discontinued nautilus pieces. Haven't seen a correlation as yet though.

I've wondered about this. It doesn't seem as though there is much of a premium, if any, for discontinued Nautilus and Aquanaut. Maybe it has to do with the different case shapes and sizes, for instance between the 3700 series Nautilus and the 5700 series. It's almost as if buyers prefer the current production pieces to the earlier versions.

[BobDyl]

Originally Posted by cascavel

I've wondered about this. It doesn't seem as though there is much of a premium, if any, for discontinued Nautilus and Aquanaut. Maybe it has to do with the different case shapes and sizes, for instance between the 3700 series Nautilus and the 5700 series. It's almost as if buyers prefer the current production pieces to the earlier versions.

Except the 5726 grey dial on full bracelet. Asking prices now well above $100K.

[Commonproject]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

But the new 911 has 4 cylinders... it’s like a dolled up VW these days...

sound like you know nothing about 911s...cause they're definitely not 4 cylinders

[GreenLantern]

Originally Posted by Commonproject

sound like you know nothing about 911s...cause they're definitely not 4 cylinders

[AK797]

Originally Posted by BobDyl

Except the 5726 grey dial on full bracelet. Asking prices now well above $100K.

If they are recently discontinued then they get the bump, if they were so before this hype and Insta modern age then they don't so much, modern aggressive buyers are setting the market now.

[Rwatcher]

Originally Posted by SMD

Have to say, getting tempted to part with my 5711 at these prices.

I have been offered a no money trade for my 5711 blue dial for a brand new in stickers Platinum Daytona - A watch that really would be out of reach for many many years outside this bubble.

I can only agree the temptation is for sure there.

[GreenLantern]

I still don't understand who all these buyers are.

Are there just so many of them and no one's willing to admit they're paying double MSRP because they're ashamed? :)

[AK797]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern

I still don't understand who all these buyers are.

Are there just so many of them and no one's willing to admit they're paying double MSRP because they're ashamed? :)

Truth is when people do admit to paying premiums they get very little vitriol and mostly positive comments on them going for what they really want and not being flippers, which is the real scourge of our hobby. I admit the premiums are now so steep that most will not want to elaborate on it but this forum used to enable people to within an inch of their lives, so stands to reason it is FOMOing people to the same even now.

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by AK797

Truth is when people do admit to paying premiums they get very little vitriol and mostly positive comments on them going for what they really want and not being flippers, which is the real scourge of our hobby. I admit the premiums are now so steep that most will not want to elaborate on it but this forum used to enable people to within an inch of their lives, so stands to reason it is FOMOing people to the same even now.

I still don’t know what FOMO means. I just like saying it.


Edit: but to answer Greenlanterns question...

This guy bought 5 watches
https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=683772

[AK797]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

I still don’t know what FOMO means. I just like saying it.

It's the new YOLO.

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by AK797

It's the new YOLO.

I don’t know what YOLO means. I only learned what Savage meant like a month ago

[GreenLantern]

Originally Posted by AK797

Truth is when people do admit to paying premiums they get very little vitriol and mostly positive comments on them going for what they really want and not being flippers, which is the real scourge of our hobby. I admit the premiums are now so steep that most will not want to elaborate on it but this forum used to enable people to within an inch of their lives, so stands to reason it is FOMOing people to the same even now.

Makes sense. :(

In my opinion, it's taking the fun out of wearing some of these watches. I know not everyone feels this way, but I do genuinely miss the days when I felt like I could replace one of these watches (e.g., a 5711/1A) with only slight difficulty if it is severely damaged or stolen, or if I just decided I wanted a brand new mint example to go along with a heavily beat up example that's been well worn by me.

Now? I either have to pay double to satisfy the above, or the wait will be so long that Patek will discontinue it (e.g., white dial 5726/1A).

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

I still don’t know what FOMO means. I just like saying it.

Edit: but to answer Greenlanterns question...

This guy bought 5 watches
https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=683772

Wow. Yup. At least 4 of those were likely at a meaningful to significant premium.

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

I don’t know what YOLO means. I only learned what Savage meant like a month ago

You're so YOLO it's savage!

I really wanted to say that statement above because I had FOMO with respect to not using "YOLO" and "Savage."

[Mini2]

Like people have mentioned it has gone crazy but there is a lot of wealthy people out there who literally have money to burn.

They don't wait for things, they get things now. For that comes at a price.

[Aquaman]

Originally Posted by Mini2

Like people have mentioned it has gone crazy but there is a lot of wealthy people out there who literally have money to burn.

They don't wait for things, they get things now. For that comes at a price.

are they fake rich or real rich?

[Rushne]

Originally Posted by Aquaman

are they fake rich or real rich?

Hahaha I was waiting for this to drop in here

[GreenLantern]

Real rich stay rich by not wasting their money.

YOLO.

#Savage

[Ichiran]

Originally Posted by Mini2

Like people have mentioned it has gone crazy but there is a lot of wealthy people out there who literally have money to burn.

They don't wait for things, they get things now. For that comes at a price.

I learnt that a 21-year-old kid just signed a £300,000 per week football contract. He may not necessarily like Nautilus but he certainly has the means.

[yehiashawki]

its 200 bro, still ridiculous though