Grey Market Prices Coming Down (daily tracker)

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by VacherObsessive

They’re hoping the economy crashes / goes into recession, so that they can acquire a watch at msrp; either 1) so they can feel they join the insta party of wearing a hot watch. Or 2) they can feel smug those that with the piece who may have paid more than MSRP are hurting

Either way, in the event of crash / recession, and the watch returning to MSRP or under, means the watch will no longer be hot, and no one cares, the party is over, so there is no kudos. I.e. 1) is invalid during the said potential crash. And 2) they won’t feel so smug about those who paid over MSRP as the interest no longer exists so that feeling will surely dissipate or not exist In the first place. They probably won’t be posting here any more as all hype will be over. It’ll only be Rolex enthusiast like myself who will stick around, who were buying long before 2016/7 and will continue to afterwards

In either scenario, that kind person (wishing for economic crash person) will not be buying the piece either now or at MSRP in the future (when used prices drop to that level) and is just a daydreamer.

Dude that was awesome. I love it. Great points.

[nachopc]

Originally Posted by bay-dweller

I think its correct to track lowest price for identical goods in identical condition.

Median price is good for real estate and other unique items that are comparable, but not identical.

Good point on the inventory, but I don't think we can really track that accurately. Its my understanding that the same watch might be posted by two sellers on C24.

Lower price ie in Chrono24 does not include box, papers, etc....In my collection prices has dropped only 3%.


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[dontbeshort]

Its a interesting indicator which definitely indicates a softening of prices. However this only shows ‘offer prices’. It would be great to see where the ‘bids’ stand and actual traded prices. I wouldn’t mind betting the real levels are about 20% down .

[nachopc]

Originally Posted by VacherObsessive

The people wishing that Rolex sports models go back to MSRP so they can finally buy their first one, would have never actually bought one if the used price matched or dropped below MSRP in the first place. They’re all daydreamers

This


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[H25B]

A single listing for a BNIB James Cameron has dropped asking $1,200 on this very forum and still looking for any offers.. Actually asking LESS THAN retail considering sales tax.

So please, don’t say prices aren’t coming down. I’m not cheerleading a collapse, but some of the denial here is a bit ridiculous. And the consistency of messaging amongst the Rolex YouTube community is more than suspicious and pretty transparent in their attempt to downplay the significance of downward market moves.

[mrmarty]

Originally Posted by VacherObsessive

They’re hoping the economy crashes / goes into recession, so that they can acquire a watch at msrp; either 1) so they can feel they join the insta party of wearing a hot watch. Or 2) they can feel smug those that with the piece who may have paid more than MSRP are hurting

Either way, in the event of crash / recession, and the watch returning to MSRP or under, means the watch will no longer be hot, and no one cares, the party is over, so there is no kudos. I.e. 1) is invalid during the said potential crash. And 2) they won’t feel so smug about those who paid over MSRP as the interest no longer exists so that feeling will surely dissipate or not exist In the first place. They probably won’t be posting here any more as all hype will be over. It’ll only be Rolex enthusiast like myself who will stick around, who were buying long before 2016/7 and will continue to afterwards

In either scenario, that kind person (wishing for economic crash person) will not be buying the piece either now or at MSRP in the future (when used prices drop to that level) and is just a daydreamer.

You took these sentiments right out of my mouth and I totally agree.

[fsprow]

I have no idea what either the economy or watch prices will do in the future, but I do hope that those who believe modern, mass produced watches are good investments have backed away a bit from that concept.

[mrcsatx]

Originally Posted by jestevez

Wanted to share this interesting table below. I have been tracking online prices daily for the past week for some of the toughest to get pieces .



The prices highlighted in green show days that the price for a certain watch came down. You can definitely see a trend going down although a one week time frame is too short to see if it will persist and/or if price reductions will start to be more substantial.



Attachment 1123688

I've been meaning to do this....but glad someone has done it and shared results..

Thanks OP for sharing.

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[HMHM]

Originally Posted by VacherObsessive

They’re hoping the economy crashes / goes into recession, so that they can acquire a watch at msrp; either 1) so they can feel they join the insta party of wearing a hot watch. Or 2) they can feel smug those that with the piece who may have paid more than MSRP are hurting

Either way, in the event of crash / recession, and the watch returning to MSRP or under, means the watch will no longer be hot, and no one cares, the party is over, so there is no kudos. I.e. 1) is invalid during the said potential crash. And 2) they won’t feel so smug about those who paid over MSRP as the interest no longer exists so that feeling will surely dissipate or not exist In the first place. They probably won’t be posting here any more as all hype will be over. It’ll only be Rolex enthusiast like myself who will stick around, who were buying long before 2016/7 and will continue to afterwards

In either scenario, that kind person (wishing for economic crash person) will not be buying the piece either now or at MSRP in the future (when used prices drop to that level) and is just a daydreamer.

“ITS NOT ABOUT THE MONEY, ITS ABOUT SENDING A MESSAGE! EVERYTHING BURNS!” HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

We will gladly watch the greys burn. Just like how they love to piss us off with photos of stacks of watches which they obtained via backdoor from ADs. (Example: Wat**Tradi**Co). How the Italian watch influencer with the initials of GM (female) trying to prop up her trusted dealers to rob watch collectors of their hard earned money to enrich the few CHOSEN ONES.

If we don’t get the watches we want...It’s fine. We all burn together. Like the Batman and The Joker. Batman lost Harvey Dent and Rachel and he had to break his one rule. The joker didn’t get to watch the two ships explode to prove his point.

[upsidedownbelt]

Originally Posted by ratty

If you buy directly from a Rolex AD you have a new watch. If you buy from a grey dealer you have, at best, a second hand watch. It doesn’t matter what condition it is in, someone else has owned it since it left the AD.

I think most people would consider a car or a watch with zero miles on it new regardless of how many people have owned it. It’s open to interpretation, but I would guess you opinion is the minority.

[Ravager135]

Am I the only one who thinks it's sad that we are tying exclusivity, cost, economics to watches that should only be purchased because you love them? It sucks to pay over MSRP and it would certainly give me pause about what brands I collect, but to haggle and obsess over projections and feel "exclusive" by having a watch that someone else tells you is cool... C'mon.

As has been pointed out in this thread, if the cost drops and you pick one up for MSRP or less, the watch will no longer be considered "cool" by the metrics by which you judge it. No one cared when I got a 116610LV three years ago. They won't if they are sitting in windows. I got it then because I loved it.

[Hollie_Rollie]

Originally Posted by VacherObsessive

They’re hoping the economy crashes / goes into recession, so that they can acquire a watch at msrp; either 1) so they can feel they join the insta party of wearing a hot watch. Or 2) they can feel smug those that with the piece who may have paid more than MSRP are hurting

Either way, in the event of crash / recession, and the watch returning to MSRP or under, means the watch will no longer be hot, and no one cares, the party is over, so there is no kudos. I.e. 1) is invalid during the said potential crash. And 2) they won’t feel so smug about those who paid over MSRP as the interest no longer exists so that feeling will surely dissipate or not exist In the first place. They probably won’t be posting here any more as all hype will be over. It’ll only be Rolex enthusiast like myself who will stick around, who were buying long before 2016/7 and will continue to afterwards

In either scenario, that kind person (wishing for economic crash person) will not be buying the piece either now or at MSRP in the future (when used prices drop to that level) and is just a daydreamer.

I think the insta party was over before the virus and subsequent job losses that are to follow...

[DaveDhc]

Originally Posted by upsidedownbelt

I think most people would consider a car or a watch with zero miles on it new regardless of how many people have owned it. It’s open to interpretation, but I would guess you opinion is the minority.

I agree. I've purchased a few watches from with stickers on from a Grey dealer. I don't really care about the paper trial. The watches are brand new, never worn. If one considers the watches to be second-hand, so what ... who cares ... not me.

[BroncoOne]

Originally Posted by fsprow

I have no idea what either the economy or watch prices will do in the future, but I do hope that those who believe modern, mass produced watches are good investments have backed away a bit from that concept.

This is true. The only people who should be looking at them as investments are people in the actual legitimate watch business. All that matters to them is to maintain their margin on sales of any watch. Price is irrelevant to the margin. That's how you stay in business. Prices will go down and then up and back again and again as the market changes.

I certainly hope that no one who bought an expensive watch has to sell to generate cash. If they do they are selling to a legit great who will maintain his margin on resale. (Assuming they aren't selling to someone they know personally who knows they aren't a scammer like 90% of the watch listings on the web that aren't from a TS).

Message: buy what you like to wear/own and it doesn't matter.

[Mystro]

Originally Posted by VacherObsessive

They’re hoping the economy crashes / goes into recession, so that they can acquire a watch at msrp; either 1) so they can feel they join the insta party of wearing a hot watch. Or 2) they can feel smug those that with the piece who may have paid more than MSRP are hurting

Either way, in the event of crash / recession, and the watch returning to MSRP or under, means the watch will no longer be hot, and no one cares, the party is over, so there is no kudos. I.e. 1) is invalid during the said potential crash. And 2) they won’t feel so smug about those who paid over MSRP as the interest no longer exists so that feeling will surely dissipate or not exist In the first place. They probably won’t be posting here any more as all hype will be over. It’ll only be Rolex enthusiast like myself who will stick around, who were buying long before 2016/7 and will continue to afterwards

In either scenario, that kind person (wishing for economic crash person) will not be buying the piece either now or at MSRP in the future (when used prices drop to that level) and is just a daydreamer.

^^^Unfortunately, this really sums up a lot of the new demographic of “Rolex” lately and why many of the TRF hardcore knowledge base left and is really not interested in the brand anymore. What will be left is a bunch of vapid hipsters that won’t know or even care about horology.

[Gaijin]

Originally Posted by Ravager135

Am I the only one who thinks it's sad that we are tying exclusivity, cost, economics to watches that should only be purchased because you love them? It sucks to pay over MSRP and it would certainly give me pause about what brands I collect, but to haggle and obsess over projections and feel "exclusive" by having a watch that someone else tells you is cool... C'mon.

As has been pointed out in this thread, if the cost drops and you pick one up for MSRP or less, the watch will no longer be considered "cool" by the metrics by which you judge it. No one cared when I got a 116610LV three years ago. They won't if they are sitting in windows. I got it then because I loved it.

[Ravager135]

Originally Posted by Mystro

^^^Unfortunately, this really sums up a lot of the new demographic of “Rolex” lately and why many of the TRF hardcore knowledge base left and is really not interested in the brand anymore. What will be left is a bunch of vapid hipsters that won’t know or even care about horology.

Sad, but incredibly true. I'm so glad I built my collection when I did, because it is difficult to really love the brand publicly with the environment that exists today.

[Geckobros]

Originally Posted by Ravager135

Sad, but incredibly true. I'm so glad I built my collection when I did, because it is difficult to really love the brand publicly with the environment that exists today.

[JasTPE]

Interesting! Thanks for sharing~ OP!

JasTPE

[Cool watch]

It's absolutely disgusting seeing these professional wrong men spewing their idiotic vitriol masquerading as self-righteousness.

[johnorpheus]

Originally Posted by ravager135

am i the only one who thinks it's sad that we are tying exclusivity, cost, economics to watches that should only be purchased because you love them? It sucks to pay over msrp and it would certainly give me pause about what brands i collect, but to haggle and obsess over projections and feel "exclusive" by having a watch that someone else tells you is cool... C'mon.

As has been pointed out in this thread, if the cost drops and you pick one up for msrp or less, the watch will no longer be considered "cool" by the metrics by which you judge it. No one cared when i got a 116610lv three years ago. They won't if they are sitting in windows. I got it then because i loved it.

+1

[Morrison0]

Great thread! Hopefully will get people to start enjoying watches instead of pure investment pieces...which should be looked at as an added bonus at best.


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[NYG1121]

Looking at prices in the middle of a global pandemic IMO does not necessarily predict the price on the back end.

People rapidly dropping prices now just need to liquidate immediately. People buying them are looking for deals. No one knows whether the prices will bounce back in 6 months or continue to go down. Everyone just has their opinion and that's it. Not that different compared to the stock market

[Wahlberg]

Originally Posted by VacherObsessive

the watch will no longer be hot, and no one cares, the party is over, so there is no kudos.

Does anyone actually care or give kudos when someone acquires a Daytona or Pepsi? Lol....

What are we, 12? It's just a watch.

[socalwatchcollector]

Originally Posted by vacherobsessive

they’re hoping the economy crashes / goes into recession, so that they can acquire a watch at msrp; either 1) so they can feel they join the insta party of wearing a hot watch. Or 2) they can feel smug those that with the piece who may have paid more than msrp are hurting

either way, in the event of crash / recession, and the watch returning to msrp or under, means the watch will no longer be hot, and no one cares, the party is over, so there is no kudos. I.e. 1) is invalid during the said potential crash. And 2) they won’t feel so smug about those who paid over msrp as the interest no longer exists so that feeling will surely dissipate or not exist in the first place. They probably won’t be posting here any more as all hype will be over. It’ll only be rolex enthusiast like myself who will stick around, who were buying long before 2016/7 and will continue to afterwards

in either scenario, that kind person (wishing for economic crash person) will not be buying the piece either now or at msrp in the future (when used prices drop to that level) and is just a daydreamer.

+1

[Morrison0]

StockX update in case anyone is interested.






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[dmash]

Originally Posted by Morrison0

StockX update in case anyone is interested.


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That black Daytona sold price is from August 2019. This is not a reliable metric to include IMO. Only hypebeasts would buy a Rolex off StockX anyways.

[Morrison0]

Originally Posted by dmash

That black Daytona sold price is from August 2019. This is not a reliable metric to include IMO. Only hypebeasts would buy a Rolex off StockX anyways.

That’s why the PSA: “if anyone is interested”


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[dmash]

Originally Posted by Morrison0

That’s why the PSA: “if anyone is interested”


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The more telling sign to me, is that the last sold is her $23,000, yet there's somebody selling one right now for $20,750. and the highest offer on both colors is $18.5k.

[Tavli3]

Here's a New Pepsi listed for $15,750.00 for that's the cheapest I've seen one on C24.

https://www.chrono24.com/rolex/gmt-m...id12605265.htm