Grey prices falling

[dori]

Originally Posted by The1019

There is no crazy market at all just greedy dealers taking more money of ever gullible people willing to pay more than from an AD - these over hyped over priced and falling watches all come from ADs in the first place then do the flipping rounds as each snout in the trough tries to keep prices up - bonkers fake inflationary prices - walk away and prices will be back to where they should be.
Mass run watches are not an investment you’ll only get burnt ... yes I said it

Couldn’t agree more. I wish more people would understand this. After all, these are Mass produced watches.
The games of AD’s and Greys just created a deception of rarity and “shortage”.


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[Mystro]

Originally Posted by The1019

There is no crazy market at all just greedy dealers taking more money of ever gullible people willing to pay more than from an AD - these over hyped over priced and falling watches all come from ADs in the first place then do the flipping rounds as each snout in the trough tries to keep prices up - bonkers fake inflationary prices - walk away and prices will be back to where they should be.
Mass run watches are not an investment you’ll only get burnt ... yes I said it

I’ll bite...
How is someone going to get burnt unless the watch is a pos and falls apart in 5 years? Who buys a piece of jewelry as a investment? Maybe make $6k in 20 years time in the best msrp buying scenario and at worst it will only be worth slightly more than what you paid for it 20 years providing you even sell it. We are not talking big money however you buy your Rolex in a few years down the road. Unless you are a flipper how could it matter what you paid? These are a luxury/lifestyle purchase, no need to overthink it.

[sambb]

There will be a recession and prices will go down
There will also be a new movement and subs etc will go down (dont know about GMTs)
And then during the next boom, prices will go up.
Unless wrist watches "age out" as the current buyers get older and new ones may or may not like watches.
For investments, there are far better ways to make money. However, to be enjoyed, yes rolex can be nice along with many other brands
This is a good time to buy other brands - panerai, Lange, IWC, omega, blancpain Some great deals on amazing watches, with good discounts.
ADs are selling to grays, they know what they are doing. Grays get coffins all the time.

Luxury goods sales go down in recessions - look at 2008-9 in the US for example.

[Fat_ninja]

And yet...I’ve been waitlisted for my daughters OP36 blue lol

[Mystro]

Buying strategies dont always apply to a luxury purchases and this is the playing field you enter with Rolex as no one needs these watches. This hobby makes no practical sense to begin with and applying logic to it is flawed.
Most indulgent luxury purchases mean “I want what I want and when I want it and can afford it”. It’s always been this way with luxury goods that are currently in trend. It’s as simple as vacationing in season versus out of season principal. You pay to have it your way and when you want to go. Anyone really think it’s fair the way you have to buy a quality diamond these days? Supply and demand with control of the industry.

As mentioned above, there are a lot of really fine luxury watches you can purchase right now at a great price. it’s just not going to be a SS Profession Rolex.

[dori]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

And yet...I’ve been waitlisted for my daughters OP36 blue lol

Lol.... that is truly something


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[peterpl]

Anyone got recent offer prices for their Batgirl and sold one to a gray dealer like within the last 2 weeks?

Got offered $12.5k few weeks ago. Now the same dealer said $11k? WTF he said he doesnt really want it too much stock around.

[sond86]

Originally Posted by peterpl

Anyone got recent offer prices for their Batgirl and sold one to a gray dealer like within the last 2 weeks?

Got offered $12.5k few weeks ago. Now the same dealer said $11k? WTF he said he doesnt really want it too much stock around.

Bummer. I just bought one paid full msrp. Just hope it don’t fall below msrp+tax

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by dori

Lol.... that is truly something


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Trying to get it for christmas... I’m hoping we’ll have it for that

[Mystro]

Originally Posted by peterpl

Anyone got recent offer prices for their Batgirl and sold one to a gray dealer like within the last 2 weeks?

Got offered $12.5k few weeks ago. Now the same dealer said $11k? WTF he said he doesnt really want it too much stock around.

How are you getting offers from the same dealer? Are you trying to sell a BLNR?

[peterpl]

Originally Posted by Mystro

How are you getting offers from the same dealer? Are you trying to sell a BLNR?

Not mine but a member of my watch club to which I belong.

I guess he has no choice but to list it privately now. He's not happy with that offer at all. I've told him to try some other gray dealers first and if its close to or around $12,500 just get rid off it. Maybe next month it will become $10k. Market seems quite weak atm.

[healer]

If you guys have notice ss sub for less than 9k and still has not sold. What’s happening? Just a few months ago I can’t seems to find a ss sub for less than 10k. To many incoming BNIB sub from ad that’s what I think.

[Fat_ninja]

I’m just trying to buy a OP for Christ sakes

[Mystro]

Originally Posted by peterpl

Not mine but a member of my watch club to which I belong.

I guess he has no choice but to list it privately now. He's not happy with that offer at all. I've told him to try some other gray dealers first and if its close to or around $12,500 just get rid off it. Maybe next month it will become $10k. Market seems quite weak atm.

If it helps, two separate of our respected sellers just sold their pre owned 126710BLNR for $14,895.00 and $14,950.00. They went quick. They currently don’t have any pre owned 126710BLNR and only one has a new one for $16,250.00. The absolute lowest pre owned BLNR internationally is $14,750 from one Asian lister on Chrono24. That’s out of 328 listings.
If he can’t get $14k for a quick sell privately he isn’t trying.

I know just about every forum trusted seller well and they are moving pre owned 126710BLNR for just under $15k. Tony only has one clean pre owned BLNR for $14995,00.
Chase doesn’t have any. Takuya only has one new BLNR. David has one pre owned BLNR at $14675.00 and one new BLNR. These are all direct bank wire prices. Keep in mind you won’t have sale tax but will pay 3% PayPal or CC fee.

Prices have stabilized (at least on the new GMT’s) even at this slow time of year. Historically this is always the time to buy as prices will go up closer to the holidays.

[peterpl]

Originally Posted by Mystro

If he can’t get $14k for a quick sell privately he isn’t trying..

Most grays I know work off a 20% profit on resale.

So just say they are selling for $14k so their buy price would be $11,200. Mint but slightly used are selling for under $14k so this gray dealer offering $11k sounds about right.

Even at 15% margin it would be $11,900 (based on $14k sale price - in reality I seen them sell even lower) so when you think about the numbers its about right I would say. I think he should have taken the $12,500 that was offered to him a few weeks ago.

[In-Cog-Neeto]

Originally Posted by Mystro

If it helps, two separate of our respected sellers just sold their pre owned 126710BLNR for $14,895.00 and $14,950.00. They went quick. They currently don’t have any pre owned 126710BLNR and only one has a new one for $16,250.00. The absolute lowest pre owned BLNR internationally is $14,750 from one Asian lister on Chrono24. That’s out of 328 listings.
If he can’t get $14k for a quick sell privately he isn’t trying.

I can guarantee you are wrong on that one

If that’s the best you can find, you are looking in the wrong places

The fact is, the batgirl dropped significantly compared to others, and there are way way more of them for sale in the grey market - disproportionately so for the short period of time they have been out - just compare the number of 126711 with 116711 which was out for 6 yrs. what does this tell you

I know you’ve mentioned price doesn’t matter so many times, and I just cannot get behind your way of thinking. I understand you’ve paid top whack for your watch and want to justify this any way possible. But it’s a logic that doesn’t apply to the majority. There has only been evidence to show the market is softening, but you don’t seem to want to believe it

[PNBLWZD]

So 2 AD’s located 2000 miles apart both had a SD43 available, and now the sky is falling? That is an anomaly not the norm, and someone should have grabbed them. They probably didn’t last a day considering DSW is selling new SD43 for $14.6k, which is over $2k above MSRP plus tax. Here in CA there’s a waitlist for them.

[Seibei]

The sky is not falling. The simple fact is that gray dealers all over the world have been amassing stocks of watches they think are desirable. Riots in Hong Kong and a slow down in China has reduced demand and these watches are not selling as fast as they used to. Prices are going down and grays are desperate to sell before prices sink further. This is great new for watch lovers. Not so much for flippers though.

[Rodrigo082]

Originally Posted by peterpl

Here come the influx of threads now regarding falling prices.

6-12 months ago every thread was about how prices keep rising forever. Now there are numerous threads about falling SS Rolex prices.

Come on now seriously - who was that naive to think these damn mass produced watches would increase forever and indefinitely? LOL

Falling prices was bound to happen sooner or later. These things should never have reached these values in the first place.

Your are totally right / still you will have some flippers and gray dealers + some guys who bought at premium who don’t want to accept the reality but in the end, they will need to accept it.... I know it’s sucks for them

[Rodrigo082]

I think this kind of treats are now worth it ... it’s very very simple and easy to see at Chrono24 or even every local gray dealer that prices are dropping - but, we have in our forum so gray dealers, flippers and some guys who bought the watches at premium and of course ... they will never accept the reality ... they will alway come back with nonsense information ... they try to keep the market up by their self ... well good luck with that ��

[akilis]

Originally Posted by amh

I've been tracking SD43 prices here for a couple years. We've gone past the peak and a BNIB SD43 can now be found for less than 13k. Even if you get "the call" from your local AD you'd pay this assuming 8% sales tax : 11350*10.8 = 12258. Established greys are still asking for a lot more but casual flippers are only making about $300-500.

IMO the big SS famine will soon be over. When the grey market reaches [MSRP+Tax] waiting lists will be meaningless. Flippers will also stop flipping.
The Christmas season will keep prices up for a few months but I expect market stability next year. The bubble will not burst, it will simply deflate.

if you buy from private you do not charge for the tax.

[Erson]

do you think rolex daytona ceramic will have lower price than now?

[Smarties]

I don’t see much price drop with grey dealers in Hong Kong (guess they may have inventories at high cost and refuse to accept any loss). However I’ve heard ADs who dare to sell above msrp are offering at lower premium.

[WatchLurv]

Prices are coming down due to:
1. Riots in HKG
Which means
2. Chinese buyers refuse to come to HKG or spend money in HKG.
Which means
3. That prices are coming down.

It's really simple.
The Summer nonsense, Christmas nonsense, DOW dropping 5 points nonsense, and the other nonsense is as said; nonsense. There is a direct correlation to the riots vs watchprices. It's really that simple.

When the riots eventually fade away (or they may flare up after 21 weeks of weekly protests), then we will know if the Chinese money-splashers will come back again or they will stay away for a bit to "teach HKG a lesson".

[Smarties]

Originally Posted by WatchLurv

Prices are coming down due to:
1. Riots in HKG
Which means
2. Chinese buyers refuse to come to HKG or spend money in HKG.
Which means
3. That prices are coming down.

It's really simple.
The Summer nonsense, Christmas nonsense, DOW dropping 5 points nonsense, and the other nonsense is as said; nonsense. There is a direct correlation to the riots vs watchprices. It's really that simple.

When the riots eventually fade away (or they may flare up after 21 weeks of weekly protests), then we will know if the Chinese money-splashers will come back again or they will stay away for a bit to "teach HKG a lesson".

The trade war between China and US has a greater impact on the global economy.

[WatchLurv]

Originally Posted by Smarties

The trade war between China and US has a greater impact on the global economy.

That's true, but when we focus on the watch prices they were going up, just until the protests started.

[peterpl]

Originally Posted by WatchLurv

When the riots eventually fade away (or they may flare up after 21 weeks of weekly protests), then we will know if the Chinese money-splashers will come back again or they will stay away for a bit to "teach HKG a lesson".

Problem I'm seeing for HK is twofold. People have lost confidence in it being a major financial hub in asia and honestly its only a matter of time before mainland China take it back fully. That is inevitable in my opinion anyway.

So with all this talk and riots there are literally billions leaving the HK economy. So many people are moving money to offshore locations like Australia that are seen as safe havens.

To restore confidence in HK it will take far far more than just the riots stopping I'm afraid. Already know ppl moving O/S permanently or planning to do so. Huge huge influx of real estate investors from HK in Sydney/Melbourne and Brisbane now in Australia. RE boom is back and partly fueled by the issues in HK.

[Smarties]

Originally Posted by WatchLurv

That's true, but when we focus on the watch prices they were going up, just until the protests started.

I think it's just coincident. There's no reason to believe the riot will affect the global economy, thus luxury watch price around the world.

The effect of trade war on the economy is lagging. Just like any stock market crash, we don't see the bottom of economic activities until months/year passed.

[WatchLurv]

Originally Posted by peterpl

Problem I'm seeing for HK is twofold. People have lost confidence in it being a major financial hub in asia and honestly its only a matter of time before mainland China take it back fully. That is inevitable in my opinion anyway.

So with all this talk and riots there are literally billions leaving the HK economy. So many people are moving money to offshore locations like Australia that are seen as safe havens.

To restore confidence in HK it will take far far more than just the riots stopping I'm afraid. Already know ppl moving O/S permanently or planning to do so. Huge huge influx of real estate investors from HK in Sydney/Melbourne and Brisbane now in Australia. RE boom is back and partly fueled by the issues in HK.

HK will still be used as a hub for the rest of the world like they've always used it for, but the new question is whether theyll let some of it stay in the economy or shoot it right off to Australia or Canada (their preferred destinations for emigration).

I don't have a crystal ball, so I don't know what the Chinese (mainland) sentiment is for purchasing watches in Hong Kong, but currently the market is correcting itself from the inflated prices the Chinese brought to the economy. Well...that goes for the houses too.

Originally Posted by Smarties

I think it's just coincident. There's no reason to believe the riot will affect the global economy, thus luxury watch price around the world.

The effect of trade war on the economy is lagging. Just like any stock market crash, we don't see the bottom of economic activities until months/year passed.

Believe me. It's not. Many greys had to take a hit last 2 months.

[jake_d]

Originally Posted by Ssunnylee24

Explorer 214270 was about 5.5-6k 3-4 months ago, they are up to 7ks now.
I dont see SS sports prices fallin.

Mk1 prices also still climbing.