What the Geneva Phillips Auction signals for brands

[Bearxj86]

Thoughts? Here are mine:

Patek continues to be strong
Journe has joined the pantheon
Rolex is still killing it
AP modern sports and special colors still command a sizable premium

Lange flat to down
All other brands - flat to down

[enjoythemusic]

Some prices seem very far out of the norm, so not sure if this auction is truly representative of reality or a way some people are creatively moving money from one country / entity to another.

[aj_tucker]

Those auction prices were out of the ordinary, to the point of absurdity.

Journe is a Hodinkee darling, and not all models are on the rise.

[Pim]

I blown away by the prices people pay for some watches, I you have chrono24 open in another tab you can see much better prices than in this action...

I have the feeling that i'm watching a episode of Pawn Stars "I'm Joe, I have this incredible ....., I do not know about e-bay or chrono, I'm looking for 2 million dollars but I will accept 250 US)

WTF

[IBDOC]

I’m mostly wondering how one gets so lucky as to be the one who’s allowed to consign relatively pedestrian and in-production watches with Phillips to be sold at their haughty too-shelf auctions? Unless there is something more to the story, those who consigned stuff like the modern sport Rolexes, AP15202 etc made out like bandits.

[base924]

I would be very careful to use this auction as a guideline.
For an auction to display the current market value, the bidders need to be independent and rationel.
I believe neither is the case here.

As for independents they did very good and that result is probably much more relevant and accurate.

Sendt fra min VOG-L29 med Tapatalk

[bob101]

Odd results. There’s a lot of items they claim as rare that don’t seem so rare to me. Plenty of APH Daytona around for example.

[ts3]

Originally Posted by IBDOC

I’m mostly wondering how one gets so lucky as to be the one who’s allowed to consign relatively pedestrian and in-production watches with Phillips to be sold at their haughty too-shelf auctions? Unless there is something more to the story, those who consigned stuff like the modern sport Rolexes, AP15202 etc made out like bandits.

Not sure if I am missing something...

Take the 15202, for example, which sold for EUR 45k. This corresponds to EUR 36k excluding the buyer's premium. I would assume the seller gets 30k or less once you subtract the consignment fee. While the buyer paid a lot, the seller has not been that lucky after all. The real winner has been the auction house.

[karasus]

Originally Posted by ts3

Not sure if I am missing something...

Take the 15202, for example, which sold for EUR 45k. This corresponds to EUR 36k excluding the buyer's premium. I would assume the seller gets 30k or less once you subtract the consignment fee. While the buyer paid a lot, the seller has not been that lucky after all. The real winner has been the auction house.

That 15202 price (47.5k CHF) was high compared to some grey prices. Then you also had an offshore 25721ST go for 47.5K CHF and a really common safari offshore go for 32.5k CHF. These are all prices the buyers were willing to pay. Considering that all three watches are listed much lower on chrono24, also makes me wonder what is going on...

Then you also have a 3700 selling double one of the first world time watches made by Patek. That seems crazy to me that such a historically significant watch was sold at such a low price (relatively). Of course the 3700 is in white gold, but the price just seems off at 700k while the first world time by Patek barely breaks 300k.

[Ichiran]

Other than JCB's quartet, there are also some that caught my attention. The FPJ Resonance went for CHF 1.04m, a 3700 WG that went for CHF 740k, a 5976 that went for CHF 487k, and a number of current production watches from Patek and Rolex that went way above current market. It does appear the watch market is doing ok from this showing.

[watch-guy.com]

so the Plat 1579 last sold for 1.98m CHF 9 years later sold 1.94 plus commission (2.05M) This was a star lot from a star collector of a very unique piece in very good condition as I understand
This to me does not look like a great investment of 2 mill over 9 years when the stock market and the property market has soared

Just saying.....

The FPJ on the other hand . The owner paid 25K for each. Now that was a good invetment

watch collecting as an investment is akin to a craps table in Las Vegas

Julian

[sp006]

Originally Posted by Pim

I blown away by the prices people pay for some watches, I you have chrono24 open in another tab you can see much better prices than in this action...

I have the feeling that i'm watching a episode of Pawn Stars "I'm Joe, I have this incredible ....., I do not know about e-bay or chrono, I'm looking for 2 million dollars but I will accept 250 US)

WTF

Two words: money laundering


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[Ichiran]

I read that auction houses perform customer due diligence, similar to those performed by financial institutions, to minimise money laundering risk.

[benzng]

how can lot 2, Batman but pic of Batgirl be worth $25k? You can pick up a new one at a grey dealer in HK for $14k and davidsw has one for $15125?

[cbalster]

Originally Posted by Ichiran

I read that auction houses perform customer due diligence, similar to those performed by financial institutions, to minimise money laundering risk.

I bought at Christie's in 2019 and no such diligence was performed. I believe I perhaps had to provide my address or a phone number but that was it. In fact, I was extended $50,000 of credit to bid without providing any financial or payment information at all. After the sale was completed I wasn't even contacted to pay for quite some time. Finally I just called them and they took my credit card number and charged me. Some time later arrangements were made for me to take delivery. Everything felt extremely "old school."

[Platypus]

What about Richard Mille? Is Richard Mille up or down?

[cbalster]

How diid Franck Muller do? I made an "investment" in a piece in 1998.

Please enjoy these time capsules for perspective on collecting....

https://www.nytimes.com/1998/03/08/s...the-wrist.html

https://www.nytimes.com/1999/11/21/s...-platinum.html

[aj_tucker]

Originally Posted by cbalster

How diid Franck Muller do? I made an "investment" in a piece in 1998.

Please enjoy these time capsules for perspective on collecting....

https://www.nytimes.com/1998/03/08/s...the-wrist.html

https://www.nytimes.com/1999/11/21/s...-platinum.html

best post in awhile. good reminder of how silly this will all feel in a few years time.

[macrowatch]

Originally Posted by cbalster

How diid Franck Muller do? I made an "investment" in a piece in 1998.

Please enjoy these time capsules for perspective on collecting....

https://www.nytimes.com/1998/03/08/s...the-wrist.html

https://www.nytimes.com/1999/11/21/s...-platinum.html

Nice time capsule indeed. Read the second one before but not the first one.

Updated twenty years later the line would read...

So long, Swatch. Hello, Patek Philippe, Vacheron Constantin, Cartier, Audemars Piguet, Rolex, Breguet and Blancpain. —> So long, Swatch, VC, Cartier, Breguet. Hello, Patek Philippe, Audemars Piguet, Rolex.

And RM replaces FM for the purposes of the article. Lol.

[enjoythemusic]

Originally Posted by cbalster

How diid Franck Muller do? I made an "investment" in a piece in 1998.

Please enjoy these time capsules for perspective on collecting....

https://www.nytimes.com/1998/03/08/s...the-wrist.html

https://www.nytimes.com/1999/11/21/s...-platinum.html

EPIC post, a must-read!

Thx for posting.

[GreenLantern]

You know what it signaled to me?

Market manipulation and money laundering is still in full force. :)

[watch-guy.com]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern

You know what it signaled to me?

Market manipulation and money laundering is still in full force. :)

These theories are all very exciting but there is no proof and we stand here accusing the auction houses of illegal activity.

I think ignorance , boredom and greed are still strong motivators in the market

If someone was going to launder money , buying a few watches would be a very small part of their operation.

Julian

[GreenLantern]

It's not the auction houses that are being accused of illegal activity. Far from it.

It's the bidders.

Market manipulation in an unregulated opaque market is not illegal. (Granted, money laundering is.)

[enjoythemusic]

Originally Posted by bob101

Odd results. There’s a lot of items they claim as rare that don’t seem so rare to me. Plenty of APH Daytona around for example.

Timepiece auction houses would use the term 'fine and rare' to sell a McDonalds hamburger. It's a boring waaaaay overused / abused term.

[cascavel]

As long as it results in higher prices, why would anyone have a problem with money laundering and market manipulation?

[watch-guy.com]

Originally Posted by cascavel

As long as it results in higher prices, why would anyone have a problem with money laundering and market manipulation?

Because I cannot afford to buy anything


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[mongrelnomoad]

Originally Posted by Ichiran

I read that auction houses perform customer due diligence, similar to those performed by financial institutions, to minimise money laundering risk.

Dude, spend five minutes in a financial institution and you realise the incentives are such that if it's even a little hidden and they can look the other way, they will and they do.

I suspect auction houses are the same.

[Chiboy]

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