ROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEX
8 October 2016, 09:35 AM | #31 |
Banned
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Ann Arbor MI
Watch: Rolex Ref 16600
Posts: 3,908
|
It has been interesting to watch the dealers start to pump up the market for "special" DJ and DD models, since they're coming up dry for good examples of the usual references. I don't think vintage collecting is anywhere near a mature market full of informed consumers. Car dealers aren't able to pump up unloved models because all the boss 429s have been sold - buyers are just too informed for that.
|
8 October 2016, 03:08 PM | #32 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: May 2013
Location: Vain
Posts: 5,910
|
I think the valuation of vintage watches is just too arbitrary to put any "real" money into...
There isn't a standardized agreement on condition or even what constitutes "originality"... There are too many franken watches cobbled together from bits here and there...some people find that completely acceptable....others think they are trash. Don't even start on polishing....at least with coins it's generally accepted that cleaning coins is always bad....but with watches? Who knows? Purist collectors say absolutely no polishing, but many dealers get their stock polished up because the average hipster collector prefers them to be old and look new....but when that collector wants to sell that piece...the polishing becomes a big valuation problem... It's just an inconsistent mess. So based on the vagueness of their valuation I think vintage watches are in a bit of bubble driven by hype and the vintage is "cool" trend and are subsequently overpriced. |
8 October 2016, 03:08 PM | #33 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: May 2013
Location: Vain
Posts: 5,910
|
Double post
|
8 October 2016, 03:38 PM | #34 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Apr 2016
Location: Texas
Posts: 170
|
Hmmm.... Interesting. Which of the "vintage" models do you feel are overblown, overvaluated, or overhyped?
|
8 October 2016, 03:54 PM | #35 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: May 2011
Location: Paris, France
Watch: Dayto/5164
Posts: 1,631
|
Quote:
__________________
IG : @aka_karbo |
|
8 October 2016, 04:54 PM | #36 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Sep 2014
Location: Australia
Posts: 1,058
|
I'm still yet to see this implied conspiracy of "hipsters" buying and wearing vintage Rolex watches! But if they do, good luck to them, they are not anyone's exclusive domain. It is also perfectly legitimate if someone wants their watch cleaned or polished, after all this how Rolex treats them as part of a service. I cannot imagine my very hip father, now in his 90's wearing any of his watches in a scratched up and dirty condition.
|
8 October 2016, 04:58 PM | #37 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: May 2013
Location: Vain
Posts: 5,910
|
Quote:
5513, 1680, GMT's....all on the hype train. It's easy to see why it happens. The higher end dealers put these models in NOS condition on their websites with SOLD or ON HOLD designations. Those pieces are goners before the photo for the website was taken... So someone in the hunt for one feels they will NEVER be able to acquire a really nice one because the cards are stacked against them...so they settle for a user model for $8-9k (and rising) out of panic buying. Don't want to miss out... |
|
8 October 2016, 10:00 PM | #38 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: Montreal
Watch: The Habs pick 1st!
Posts: 3,589
|
What I find interesting is that the guys who can work on these things are just dying off. I have a buddy in school to become a watchmaker near Montreal. It is the only school of its kind left in Canada.
|
9 October 2016, 01:03 AM | #39 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Apr 2016
Location: Texas
Posts: 170
|
I actually heard there are watchmaking schools offering programs and scholarships. One of the watchmaker's first task is to machine a perfectly square block.
|
9 October 2016, 02:48 AM | #40 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: USA
Watch: where do i start??
Posts: 3,254
|
Quote:
I can't say I agree with what you're saying at all.. I'm not sure how long you been into watches and following the market, but I hope it has been longer than You have been a member here... the history behind these vintage pieces and the fact that they are no longer produced is what drives the hype, not "hipsters".. Antiques have and always will be collectible and saught after by collectors that appreciate things from a different era. I think your outlook on the hobby is coming off negative. Also making bold accusations based on how the top vintage dealers market their websites is simply based on assumptions.. It's this simple, vintage pieces are no longer being produced, so supplies is limited to begin with. You have more and more people becoming interested in vintage every day, most will look at starter models like your 5513's etc. Many of collectors buy, they don't sell, so that leaves the market even more scarce for pieces.. many of these pieces have gone to the Far East and never make it back. So if the market becomes dry and finding a nice original piece becomes difficult, then the price obviously goes up when one finally makes it to the market due to the amount of collectors fighting over it. Back when I got into vintage years ago, the hobby was different, the market was pleantiful, only because the hobby wasn't as popular as it is today, especially the Internet and Instagram have given the hobby even more of a front stage now. Just my 2 cents |
|
9 October 2016, 03:01 AM | #41 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Apr 2007
Real Name: Nikos
Location: Florida
Watch: Rolex GMT 16750
Posts: 8,415
|
There's basically a couple of dozen long time vintage dealers out there and there is the new bread of internet dealers. A high % of these are clueless have no inventory or $ behind them but are slick marketers. They have taken over the market the last year IMHO. I don't think we are there yet. It it reminds me of the cab drivers who were stock market experts at the top of the market or the waiter who was a real estate guru at the top of that cycle. This time maybe different and when you are in front of anything with momentum it can go higher or lower than anybody thinks. So I buy what I like and with $ I don't care about when it comes to watches myself.
__________________
Follow Me On Instagram @nickgogas Original Owner ROLEX 16750 GMT Daily Wearer For Over 13,000 Days And Counting |
9 October 2016, 03:42 AM | #42 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: May 2013
Location: Vain
Posts: 5,910
|
Quote:
BUT....I'm starting to think that is NOT what is totally going on with vintage watches at the moment. Two years ago clean 5513 were being offered for $5500 - $5800. Now 5513's in like conditions are offered close to $9k. Now is the market driving those "valuations" or are the consortium of vintage dealers? Both? This whole vintage watch thing reminds a lot me of the toned coin craze... A couple of big coin dealers started touting how rare toned Morgan dollars are and jacked the offering price on common date, average mint grade coins through the roof. They started a "thing"....smart for them. Some "influential" Vintage Rolex dealers do the same thing. The NOS 5513 on the website is NEVER available. It is either "On Hold" or "sold"....all of them. But, since you can't ever get this unobtainable 5513, we have this 5513 that is kind of worn for $9K...you can have that one today....they are going up up up!!! Now look I'm not really condemning this. The dealers can market and run their business as they see fit....and if the collector feels comfortable paying these prices, then all is good... But not for me. I want to know more about why a certain collectible is valued a certain way. Why is it $XXXX? |
|
9 October 2016, 06:04 AM | #43 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: USA
Watch: where do i start??
Posts: 3,254
|
Quote:
Wine, art, antiques, the market does what it does.. but i feel at the end of the day it is all pretty much black and white |
|
9 October 2016, 06:22 AM | #44 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: May 2013
Location: Vain
Posts: 5,910
|
Quote:
|
|
9 October 2016, 06:48 AM | #45 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: USA
Watch: where do i start??
Posts: 3,254
|
Quote:
The only thing I can see dealers having control of is cherry picking which pieces they want for them selves and what they will offer for sale... At the end of the day, I don't suspect they are doing too much of that because they are in business to sell pieces.. I think you put too much weight on the dealers side. The collectors that hold onto their pieces and hide em from the world forever are in total what is making the market dry.. I know too many collectors that don't sell, they only buy. There are far more collectors in the world than dealers.. so if you want to blame someone/something for sky high prices, blame the growing popularity of pieces that are no longer produced. It's not just focused on the 5513 by any means, the prices are up across the board. Value of collectibles will go up and down and there may not always be an explanation.. You are entitled to not want to by into Rolex. From a value standpoint, rolex is king at holding its value and is known universally. It is its own form of currency in many respects. Rolex is a beast, a monster. There may never be an exact explanation of how and why. No one knows what the future market will be for vintage Rolex. We can only speculate. Buy what you like at the end of the day, regardless of price. If you have a passion for the hobby, then you have to pay to play. We all try to adapt to fluctuating markets |
|
9 October 2016, 06:51 AM | #46 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Jun 2010
Real Name: Per
Location: Sweden
Watch: Gilt Rolex
Posts: 2,946
|
Top dealers don't update their sites simply because they don't need to. People either ask for stuff directly or they post watches on Instagram. No need to do more to sell fine pieces. It's not a conspiracy. It's just conveniant.
|
9 October 2016, 08:37 AM | #47 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Feb 2015
Location: Stratosphere
Posts: 1,990
|
Quote:
I haven't been in the vintage world for very long, however I was exposed to it through instagram and though the internet. Social media plays a huge role with this exposure. Ignorance is bliss and many people(myself included) would have never really seen this side of watch collecting if it wasn't for social media. In the brief period I have been extremely involved in the forums, I have been studying and teaching myself many things, and meeting many like minded collectors and sharing the passion. I cannot speak of how it was before, but I have a pretty good idea based on this forums and on collectors I have met. However from my period of under 2 years, I can't help but notice more and more younger guys getting into the hobby, on a daily basis. What seemed like a premium just a year ago seems like a good price today, and as you have stated, there are way more collectors than there are dealers. I personally know of so many guys that absolutely love and enjoy their watches, who would not sell for any decent amount of profit. This can only lead to one thing. Let alone the guys that are buying them as "investments" and chuck them away to sell later.. Only a year and a half ago when I was buying my first vintage watch, a 1680 white, there were many decent examples out there. It was up to me to find the one that is right for me, in terms of dial condition, quality, price, etc. Today I know of a few guys that are looking for good quality basic models that can't seem to find them easily. And when they do, they are not cheap anymore, but still usually sold before they can get to them. Quality vintage watches(basic and rarer) will always retain value and slowly appreciate I think. Rare quality watches even more so?(Big crown, Milsub, 6542s, etc.) Maybe. But it is the more "basic" models that are relatively more affordable to the vast majority in comparison, so.. Just my humble opinion. |
|
12 October 2016, 04:31 AM | #48 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: Texas
Posts: 813
|
... does anyone remember the "bubble back" bubble of the late 80s early 90s? It's amazing how high they got and how fast they crashed.... and stayed crashed.
I do not understand the sports model craze - millions of these watches have been made and a lot of them are still available. There are few models that Rolex produced that are relatively rare and don't bring much money at all (definitive not relative to the prices of the sports models). Tommy already mentioned certain 1930/1940 models, but even later models too - for example: 1530 (500 to 1000 made), 5100 (1000 made), even 168000 (triple 0 was a very low production series, yet not very expensive - mid $4k) I don't think that the current prices are due to 'manipulation by the dealers' - more like "never underestimate the power of stupid people in large groups" - i.e. mob mentality regarding particular models |
12 October 2016, 08:02 AM | #49 | |
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: Apr 2008
Real Name: jP
Location: Texas
Watch: GMT-MASTER
Posts: 17,193
|
Quote:
__________________
Member of NAWCC since 1990. INSTAGRAM USER NAME: SPRINGERJFP Visit my Instagram page to view some of the finest vintage GMTs anywhere - as well as other vintage classics. |
|
14 October 2016, 04:19 AM | #50 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: Kuala Lumpur
Watch: 5513
Posts: 110
|
a short but precisely accurate statement, and to add to that, the best rule of thumb as a collector/hobbyist is always to buy what you like, unless you depend on it as a form of income
|
14 October 2016, 05:05 AM | #51 |
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: Aug 2013
Real Name: Jeff
Location: Seattle, WA
Watch: 16600
Posts: 4,063
|
100% agree. Sure watches used to be cheaper years ago, but when the phenomenon of the internet came into play and people could search through ebay and google everyone became an "expert" on values. Now supply seems low and demand seems high for nice watches, and a watch is only worth what someone is willing to pay for it. There used to be people who wouldn't pay as much, and since then people have jumped in and driven up the prices because they are willing to pay more. As others have stated with Instagram and online dealers the vintage market is strong and I don't see it collapsing anytime soon.
|
14 October 2016, 06:57 AM | #52 |
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: Mar 2016
Location: Chicago
Posts: 792
|
As an actual equity trader, you have no idea what you are talking about and clearly no idea how equity markets work.
|
Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests) | |
Thread Tools | |
Display Modes | |
|
|
*Banners
Of The Month*
This space is provided to horological resources.