Bubble talk........where is the market headed

[JP Chestnut]

It has been interesting to watch the dealers start to pump up the market for "special" DJ and DD models, since they're coming up dry for good examples of the usual references. I don't think vintage collecting is anywhere near a mature market full of informed consumers. Car dealers aren't able to pump up unloved models because all the boss 429s have been sold - buyers are just too informed for that.

[Fleetlord]

I think the valuation of vintage watches is just too arbitrary to put any "real" money into...

There isn't a standardized agreement on condition or even what constitutes "originality"...

There are too many franken watches cobbled together from bits here and there...some people find that completely acceptable....others think they are trash.

Don't even start on polishing....at least with coins it's generally accepted that cleaning coins is always bad....but with watches? Who knows? Purist collectors say absolutely no polishing, but many dealers get their stock polished up because the average hipster collector prefers them to be old and look new....but when that collector wants to sell that piece...the polishing becomes a big valuation problem... It's just an inconsistent mess.

So based on the vagueness of their valuation I think vintage watches are in a bit of bubble driven by hype and the vintage is "cool" trend and are subsequently overpriced.

[Fleetlord]

Double post

[axl911]

Hmmm.... Interesting. Which of the "vintage" models do you feel are overblown, overvaluated, or overhyped?

[Karbo]

Originally Posted by roh123

I think the market is changing and that some prices are vary inflated. I think what we will see is a slight shift where average to poor quality will stop or move down and high quality or very rare pieces will continue to move up. Probably not in the same rate as the last couple of years but I do not think prices are going to move down any time soon. The main concern I have is not that great watches cost a ton of money, the concern is that if great watches cost a lot; half good watches need to cost almost as much. I think this will change.

Personally I don´t have a big collection or very high price pieces. I have good watches but not extreme in any way. I still get a lot of questions from dealers, known and new, who wants to buy from me. This have changed a lot the last year and I believe a big reason for this is that the supply for good pieces is very limited today. I don´t see this changing any time soon as most people with decent collections collect and they are also very much informed of what their pieces are worth.

I might be naive but that´s my take. I still have the feeling that every time I sell a watch my gut tells me that I will never be able to afford such a nice example again.

Overall the development of vintage Rolex sucks. The hobby was so much more fun when you actually could afford it.. Today every purchase is so big and important and that kind of kills the fun. Also the fact that prices are as they are means that the best pieces aren´t worn as much as they deserve. I really hate myself every time I go to the bank to put fun watches away from reality.

Agree 100%

[themaninblack]

I'm still yet to see this implied conspiracy of "hipsters" buying and wearing vintage Rolex watches! But if they do, good luck to them, they are not anyone's exclusive domain. It is also perfectly legitimate if someone wants their watch cleaned or polished, after all this how Rolex treats them as part of a service. I cannot imagine my very hip father, now in his 90's wearing any of his watches in a scratched up and dirty condition.

[Fleetlord]

Originally Posted by axl911

Hmmm.... Interesting. Which of the "vintage" models do you feel are overblown, overvaluated, or overhyped?

Common or less than common condition Rolex Sport models for sure..

5513, 1680, GMT's....all on the hype train.

It's easy to see why it happens.

The higher end dealers put these models in NOS condition on their websites with SOLD or ON HOLD designations. Those pieces are goners before the photo for the website was taken...

So someone in the hunt for one feels they will NEVER be able to acquire a really nice one because the cards are stacked against them...so they settle for a user model for $8-9k (and rising) out of panic buying. Don't want to miss out...

[harry in montreal]

What I find interesting is that the guys who can work on these things are just dying off. I have a buddy in school to become a watchmaker near Montreal. It is the only school of its kind left in Canada.

[axl911]

I actually heard there are watchmaking schools offering programs and scholarships. One of the watchmaker's first task is to machine a perfectly square block.

[SubKing]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

Common or less than common condition Rolex Sport models for sure..

5513, 1680, GMT's....all on the hype train.

It's easy to see why it happens.

The higher end dealers put these models in NOS condition on their websites with SOLD or ON HOLD designations. Those pieces are goners before the photo for the website was taken...

So someone in the hunt for one feels they will NEVER be able to acquire a really nice one because the cards are stacked against them...so they settle for a user model for $8-9k (and rising) out of panic buying. Don't want to miss out...

My Lord,
I can't say I agree with what you're saying at all.. I'm not sure how long you been into watches and following the market, but I hope it has been longer than You have been a member here... the history behind these vintage pieces and the fact that they are no longer produced is what drives the hype, not "hipsters"..

Antiques have and always will be collectible and saught after by collectors that appreciate things from a different era.

I think your outlook on the hobby is coming off negative. Also making bold accusations based on how the top vintage dealers market their websites is simply based on assumptions..

It's this simple, vintage pieces are no longer being produced, so supplies is limited to begin with. You have more and more people becoming interested in vintage every day, most will look at starter models like your 5513's etc. Many of collectors buy, they don't sell, so that leaves the market even more scarce for pieces.. many of these pieces have gone to the Far East and never make it back. So if the market becomes dry and finding a nice original piece becomes difficult, then the price obviously goes up when one finally makes it to the market due to the amount of collectors fighting over it.

Back when I got into vintage years ago, the hobby was different, the market was pleantiful, only because the hobby wasn't as popular as it is today, especially the Internet and Instagram have given the hobby even more of a front stage now. Just my 2 cents

[greekbum]

There's basically a couple of dozen long time vintage dealers out there and there is the new bread of internet dealers. A high % of these are clueless have no inventory or $ behind them but are slick marketers. They have taken over the market the last year IMHO. I don't think we are there yet. It it reminds me of the cab drivers who were stock market experts at the top of the market or the waiter who was a real estate guru at the top of that cycle. This time maybe different and when you are in front of anything with momentum it can go higher or lower than anybody thinks. So I buy what I like and with $ I don't care about when it comes to watches myself.

[Fleetlord]

Originally Posted by SubKing

My Lord,
I can't say I agree with what you're saying at all.. I'm not sure how long you been into watches and following the market, but I hope it has been longer than You have been a member here... the history behind these vintage pieces and the fact that they are no longer produced is what drives the hype, not "hipsters"..

Antiques have and always will be collectible and saught after by collectors that appreciate things from a different era.

I think your outlook on the hobby is coming off negative. Also making bold accusations based on how the top vintage dealers market their websites is simply based on assumptions..

It's this simple, vintage pieces are no longer being produced, so supplies is limited to begin with. You have more and more people becoming interested in vintage every day, most will look at starter models like your 5513's etc. Many of collectors buy, they don't sell, so that leaves the market even more scarce for pieces.. many of these pieces have gone to the Far East and never make it back. So if the market becomes dry and finding a nice original piece becomes difficult, then the price obviously goes up when one finally makes it to the market due to the amount of collectors fighting over it.

Back when I got into vintage years ago, the hobby was different, the market was pleantiful, only because the hobby wasn't as popular as it is today, especially the Internet and Instagram have given the hobby even more of a front stage now. Just my 2 cents

I used to think like you. That valuations were purely a function of market demand vs supply and that a rising tide floats all boats....

BUT....I'm starting to think that is NOT what is totally going on with vintage watches at the moment.

Two years ago clean 5513 were being offered for $5500 - $5800.

Now 5513's in like conditions are offered close to $9k.

Now is the market driving those "valuations" or are the consortium of vintage dealers? Both?

This whole vintage watch thing reminds a lot me of the toned coin craze...

A couple of big coin dealers started touting how rare toned Morgan dollars are and jacked the offering price on common date, average mint grade coins through the roof. They started a "thing"....smart for them.

Some "influential" Vintage Rolex dealers do the same thing. The NOS 5513 on the website is NEVER available. It is either "On Hold" or "sold"....all of them. But, since you can't ever get this unobtainable 5513, we have this 5513 that is kind of worn for $9K...you can have that one today....they are going up up up!!!

Now look I'm not really condemning this. The dealers can market and run their business as they see fit....and if the collector feels comfortable paying these prices, then all is good...

But not for me. I want to know more about why a certain collectible is valued a certain way. Why is it $XXXX?

[SubKing]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

I used to think like you. That valuations were purely a function of market demand vs supply and that a rising tide floats all boats....

BUT....I'm starting to think that is NOT what is totally going on with vintage watches at the moment.

Two years ago clean 5513 were being offered for $5500 - $5800.

Now 5513's in like conditions are offered close to $9k.

Now is the market driving those "valuations" or are the consortium of vintage dealers? Both?

This whole vintage watch thing reminds a lot me of the toned coin craze...

A couple of big coin dealers started touting how rare toned Morgan dollars are and jacked the offering price on common date, average mint grade coins through the roof. They started a "thing"....smart for them.

Some "influential" Vintage Rolex dealers do the same thing. The NOS 5513 on the website is NEVER available. It is either "On Hold" or "sold"....all of them. But, since you can't ever get this unobtainable 5513, we have this 5513 that is kind of worn for $9K...you can have that one today....they are going up up up!!!

Now look I'm not really condemning this. The dealers can market and run their business as they see fit....and if the collector feels comfortable paying these prices, then all is good...

But not for me. I want to know more about why a certain collectible is valued a certain way. Why is it $XXXX?

Im not sure which dealers in particular you are referring to, but I can't say I have the same problem. Some dealers mark a piece on hold for their own reasons.. maybe they don't want to show that they constantly have no inventory because of the dry market. Could be a hundred different reasons.. I think, you are thinking there is some kind of conspiracy going on, but I really don't think so..

Wine, art, antiques, the market does what it does.. but i feel at the end of the day it is all pretty much black and white

[Fleetlord]

Originally Posted by SubKing

Im not sure which dealers in particular you are referring to, but I can't say I have the same problem. Some dealers mark a piece on hold for their own reasons.. maybe they don't want to show that they constantly have no inventory because of the dry market. Could be a hundred different reasons.. I think, you are thinking there is some kind of conspiracy going on, but I really don't think so..

Wine, art, antiques, the market does what it does.. but i feel at the end of the day it is all pretty much black and white

I wouldn't go as far as a conspiracy, but I do feel that the vintage dealers are controlling valuation to some degree...too much for my tastes, so I choose not to buy into vintage Rolex...the pricing seems too artificial to me....just my opinion. I would never pay $9k for a user 5513. It's not even a moderately scarce piece by any stretch.

[SubKing]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

I wouldn't go as far as a conspiracy, but I do feel that the vintage dealers are controlling valuation to some degree...too much for my tastes, so I choose not to buy into vintage Rolex...the pricing seems too artificial to me....just my opinion. I would never pay $9k for a user 5513. It's not even a moderately scarce piece by any stretch.

Lord,

The only thing I can see dealers having control of is cherry picking which pieces they want for them selves and what they will offer for sale... At the end of the day, I don't suspect they are doing too much of that because they are in business to sell pieces..

I think you put too much weight on the dealers side. The collectors that hold onto their pieces and hide em from the world forever are in total what is making the market dry.. I know too many collectors that don't sell, they only buy. There are far more collectors in the world than dealers.. so if you want to blame someone/something for sky high prices, blame the growing popularity of pieces that are no longer produced. It's not just focused on the 5513 by any means, the prices are up across the board. Value of collectibles will go up and down and there may not always be an explanation..

You are entitled to not want to by into Rolex. From a value standpoint, rolex is king at holding its value and is known universally. It is its own form of currency in many respects. Rolex is a beast, a monster. There may never be an exact explanation of how and why. No one knows what the future market will be for vintage Rolex. We can only speculate.

Buy what you like at the end of the day, regardless of price. If you have a passion for the hobby, then you have to pay to play. We all try to adapt to fluctuating markets

[roh123]

Top dealers don't update their sites simply because they don't need to. People either ask for stuff directly or they post watches on Instagram. No need to do more to sell fine pieces. It's not a conspiracy. It's just conveniant.

[theflywrist]

Originally Posted by SubKing

My Lord,
I can't say I agree with what you're saying at all.. I'm not sure how long you been into watches and following the market, but I hope it has been longer than You have been a member here... the history behind these vintage pieces and the fact that they are no longer produced is what drives the hype, not "hipsters"..

Antiques have and always will be collectible and saught after by collectors that appreciate things from a different era.

I think your outlook on the hobby is coming off negative. Also making bold accusations based on how the top vintage dealers market their websites is simply based on assumptions..

It's this simple, vintage pieces are no longer being produced, so supplies is limited to begin with. You have more and more people becoming interested in vintage every day, most will look at starter models like your 5513's etc. Many of collectors buy, they don't sell, so that leaves the market even more scarce for pieces.. many of these pieces have gone to the Far East and never make it back. So if the market becomes dry and finding a nice original piece becomes difficult, then the price obviously goes up when one finally makes it to the market due to the amount of collectors fighting over it.

Back when I got into vintage years ago, the hobby was different, the market was pleantiful, only because the hobby wasn't as popular as it is today, especially the Internet and Instagram have given the hobby even more of a front stage now. Just my 2 cents

I absolutely agree with this 100%.
I haven't been in the vintage world for very long, however I was exposed to it through instagram and though the internet.
Social media plays a huge role with this exposure. Ignorance is bliss and many people(myself included) would have never really seen this side of watch collecting if it wasn't for social media.

In the brief period I have been extremely involved in the forums, I have been studying and teaching myself many things, and meeting many like minded collectors and sharing the passion.
I cannot speak of how it was before, but I have a pretty good idea based on this forums and on collectors I have met.
However from my period of under 2 years, I can't help but notice more and more younger guys getting into the hobby, on a daily basis. What seemed like a premium just a year ago seems like a good price today, and as you have stated, there are way more collectors than there are dealers.

I personally know of so many guys that absolutely love and enjoy their watches, who would not sell for any decent amount of profit. This can only lead to one thing. Let alone the guys that are buying them as "investments" and chuck them away to sell later..

Only a year and a half ago when I was buying my first vintage watch, a 1680 white, there were many decent examples out there. It was up to me to find the one that is right for me, in terms of dial condition, quality, price, etc.
Today I know of a few guys that are looking for good quality basic models that can't seem to find them easily. And when they do, they are not cheap anymore, but still usually sold before they can get to them.
Quality vintage watches(basic and rarer) will always retain value and slowly appreciate I think.

Rare quality watches even more so?(Big crown, Milsub, 6542s, etc.) Maybe. But it is the more "basic" models that are relatively more affordable to the vast majority in comparison, so..

Just my humble opinion.

[Vlad]

... does anyone remember the "bubble back" bubble of the late 80s early 90s? It's amazing how high they got and how fast they crashed.... and stayed crashed.

I do not understand the sports model craze - millions of these watches have been made and a lot of them are still available.

There are few models that Rolex produced that are relatively rare and don't bring much money at all (definitive not relative to the prices of the sports models). Tommy already mentioned certain 1930/1940 models, but even later models too - for example: 1530 (500 to 1000 made), 5100 (1000 made), even 168000 (triple 0 was a very low production series, yet not very expensive - mid $4k)

I don't think that the current prices are due to 'manipulation by the dealers' - more like "never underestimate the power of stupid people in large groups" - i.e. mob mentality regarding particular models

[springer]

Originally Posted by Vlad

... does anyone remember the "bubble back" bubble of the late 80s early 90s? It's amazing how high they got and how fast they crashed.... and stayed crashed.

I do not understand the sports model craze - millions of these watches have been made and a lot of them are still available.

There are few models that Rolex produced that are relatively rare and don't bring much money at all (definitive not relative to the prices of the sports models). Tommy already mentioned certain 1930/1940 models, but even later models too - for example: 1530 (500 to 1000 made), 5100 (1000 made), even 168000 (triple 0 was a very low production series, yet not very expensive - mid $4k)

I don't think that the current prices are due to 'manipulation by the dealers' - more like "never underestimate the power of stupid people in large groups" - i.e. mob mentality regarding particular models

Interesting, but as with any collectible's market, where there is no demand, the supply is irrelevant.

[mh17]

Originally Posted by springer

Interesting, but as with any collectible's market, where there is no demand, the supply is irrelevant.

a short but precisely accurate statement, and to add to that, the best rule of thumb as a collector/hobbyist is always to buy what you like, unless you depend on it as a form of income

[Jfullm42]

Originally Posted by springer

Interesting, but as with any collectible's market, where there is no demand, the supply is irrelevant.

100% agree. Sure watches used to be cheaper years ago, but when the phenomenon of the internet came into play and people could search through ebay and google everyone became an "expert" on values. Now supply seems low and demand seems high for nice watches, and a watch is only worth what someone is willing to pay for it. There used to be people who wouldn't pay as much, and since then people have jumped in and driven up the prices because they are willing to pay more. As others have stated with Instagram and online dealers the vintage market is strong and I don't see it collapsing anytime soon.

[brockburst]

Originally Posted by eliu908

Equities need to be manipulated so they do not crash. If equities crash and the wealthy panick, it will obviously affect the whole economy. Oil is trading at 50 bucks right now as if that is the all time high when correlating with equities.

As an actual equity trader, you have no idea what you are talking about and clearly no idea how equity markets work.