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Old 12 March 2020, 06:01 AM   #61
Arcticsub
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You bring up a good point and it's probably what is happening. You have to think that Rolex makes a good bit of inventory and partially completed inventory way in advance. So this just means they have inventory ready early now that they can distribute/allocate later on. Perhaps now a slow trickle as they hoard inventory to support the secondary market. Rolex DOES care about secondary pricing bc it impacts the sales of new watches.
So what you're saying is they are "hoarding inventory" (which costs money) and barely selling any products (which costs money) while having a full time staff working at regular capacity (which costs even MORE money).

They must have the deepest pockets on earth.
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Old 12 March 2020, 06:34 AM   #62
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Few of us on this forum would pass on the chance to own what we want. But we ignore the reality that others will. Sort of an arrogance and/or ignorance goes on with these discussions. The legions of small time flippers who rove around hoping to score a quick buck will be thinned out big time. The economy slows down and the watch buying herd will be culled.

My AD is suddenly a lot more optimistic about having a Pepsi for me, and I’m small potatoes. We shall see, and I really hope I’m wrong.
Small time flippers are going to be extinct if not already. Avi watches who is a fairly large gray dealer down here has multiple listings of the same watches on Chrono. 3-5 of some models. He's unloading. The small time flipper is the guys he was buying from. Don't think he's buying anymore.

This as they say in the dinosaur world is an extinction event.
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Old 12 March 2020, 06:52 AM   #63
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I will always be a buyer for a Sky Dweller Black or Blue. No way I will ever pay a cent over MSRP + tax in any climate. I have no problem patiently waiting for that to happen.
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Old 12 March 2020, 06:57 AM   #64
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Originally Posted by Arcticsub View Post
So what you're saying is they are "hoarding inventory" (which costs money) and barely selling any products (which costs money) while having a full time staff working at regular capacity (which costs even MORE money).

They must have the deepest pockets on earth.
Well actually they do have really deep pockets and no shareholder earnings calls or analyst forecasts to meet. So yes.

And you have to have a little more foresight than to focus on wages. Wages are one input, but their product is the real money maker and keeping demand up is how they make the most money in the long-run.
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Old 12 March 2020, 06:58 AM   #65
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If I get the call for a Pepsi, I'll ask the AD to post it. Not feeling like going downtown to catch sars-cov-19.

We're about to be quarantined, currently in contention phase (public events cancelled; schools, colleges and universities closed). My employer has asked me and my colleagues to work from home. Cases of people infected are doubling every 3 days and I'm in a hotspot. A hospital nearby was "overwhelmed" with only 9 patients turning up with the virus, they had to ask for help from other hospitals, ridiculous. Apparently covid-19 patients need to be in complete isolation from others which is not always possible logistically.

Nah, I'm staying home for a while, only going out to shop for grocesseries when necessary and to walk in open spaces in the countryside. I'll keep interaction with other people to a minimum for a couple of weeks, the incubation period.

After that back to normal, hopefully. "Ojalá" as we say.
Oh man, stay safe and healthy, sir.
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Old 12 March 2020, 07:02 AM   #66
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Bought a skydweller black dial today
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Old 12 March 2020, 07:02 AM   #67
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Have to say the comments on this thread are fairly glib. Think a lot of people here are projecting more wealth than they have.

U.S. is likely already in a recession on a run-rate basis...will be interesting to refer back to this post down the road.
I don’t see it that way.
The watch I want retails for just under $10k. That’s not a little bit of money to me, but on the other hand it’s not life altering either. If I find my watch at retail you can bet I’m buying it, recession or no recession.
If I were looking at a six figure item I’d probably hold off at this time.
YMMV, I guess.
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Old 12 March 2020, 07:15 AM   #68
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just saw a youtube video from ArchieLuxury showing that the large duty free store in Brisbane airport is now heavily discounting watches 30%-40% off. These would be the secondary brands (GP, Breitling, Tag, etc), not Rolex, AP, PP. It made the point that demand destruction is placing pressure on sales and inventories, and is showing up on secondary brands where you'd first expect to see a slowdown. But a slowdown in the watch market is evident.
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Old 12 March 2020, 07:19 AM   #69
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I found myself with a cancelled appointment today and ended up at Lakeside, Essex, Uk with an hour to kill for lunch. Walking around Ernest Jones they had 20 -30 rolex models in their window, no hot steel models but lots of DJs, dates, ladies models and a gold sub. They had a nice Wimbeldon DJ (I believe thats the model with the green romans)

Second hand market retailers (Watch finder / Beaverbrooks) had LVs and Kermits in their windows but prices at £14.5k sterling which is rather steep.
I was checking out Omegas at another retailer window and the salesperson actually came out the shop to say "hi", must of been a slow day.

I didn't venture in to any to enquire as had my mind fixed on food and a leg stretch.
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Old 12 March 2020, 07:21 AM   #70
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I’m not, hell no
But I’ll be there when the Rolex (and financial) market stabilizes.
Interesting to see what the markets look like after this shakedown - it is not going to be a long one. We are talking about a virus here.
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Old 12 March 2020, 07:22 AM   #71
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If international shipping stops, there goes the supply. To answer the question, in light of everything I am not a buyer of watches at this time. If one I wanted was offered at a good discount to MSRP, I would consider it. Watches at MSRP or more can wait.
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Old 12 March 2020, 07:43 AM   #72
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well if we limit all other spending (travelling is a big one) then we may as well spend on watches. I actually bought 2 over the past 2 months
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Old 12 March 2020, 07:56 AM   #73
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Oh man, stay safe and healthy, sir.
Thank you. We'll get through this. Just need to be careful until a vaccine is available and we develop immunity. Temperatures are rising which is a good thing.
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Old 12 March 2020, 08:02 AM   #74
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Not spending yet....waiting to asses the situation
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Old 12 March 2020, 08:02 AM   #75
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We just entered a bear market officially. Be patient and we should see those "investors" unload inventory in the very near future.
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Old 12 March 2020, 08:09 AM   #76
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With the oil prices dropping, there will be a fire sale soon in West Texas. I’m eagerly awaiting.
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Old 12 March 2020, 08:12 AM   #77
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If Rolex release a new Sub this year I'm a buyer.
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Old 12 March 2020, 08:14 AM   #78
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We just entered a bear market officially. Be patient and we should see those "investors" unload inventory in the very near future.
If investors lose money in the stock market, they might actually invest more in watches. You have to put your money somewhere...
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Old 12 March 2020, 08:22 AM   #79
Hawkeye1
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If investors lose money in the stock market, they might actually invest more in watches. You have to put your money somewhere...
True, but a smart investor knows that watches are not a good investment so probably not an issue.

I'm not looking for much right now, but if my AD happens to call me with one of my grails, I'm totally buying! (I'm not holding my breath)
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Old 12 March 2020, 08:22 AM   #80
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I'll gladly trade a couple packs of toilet rolls and canned food for Rolexes.
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Old 12 March 2020, 08:27 AM   #81
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I wouldn’t delay buying if the watch does show up. There may never be a perfect time so might as well buy it now and start enjoying it.
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Old 12 March 2020, 08:32 AM   #82
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Watches won’t be the problem!!!.... will fedex be working to deliver them? Lol.
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Old 12 March 2020, 08:33 AM   #83
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It’s looking like China is getting back to normal, they will end up with hot models we thought we were going to get!


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Old 12 March 2020, 08:38 AM   #84
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Icon14 Agree

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Originally Posted by iatacs19 View Post
We just entered a bear market officially. Be patient and we should see those "investors" unload inventory in the very near future.
Agree.
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Old 12 March 2020, 08:40 AM   #85
BillA
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If investors lose money in the stock market, they might actually invest more in watches. You have to put your money somewhere...
So lets see......I just lost 20% of my holdings, you want me to sell at a loss, and buy Rolex watches?
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Old 12 March 2020, 08:46 AM   #86
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It’s looking like China is getting back to normal, they will end up with hot models we thought we were going to get!


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Not so sure about China getting back to normal. They are trying, but factories are slow to bring back workers given the hidden stages of carrying the virus. I specifically know of one factory that is pushing into April because of being unsure (this might be controlled by the CPC) about bringing workers back. Another factory boss I know says if they do open they will be required to monitor every employee every day. Given temperature alone is not a confirmation, it seems difficult. Her factory can't open though because of supply chain problems in china until at least April also. My message last night from that person was to stay isolated. I can see the numbers growing in China again. Isolation works, but that's not a great option for the economy. Factories that have housing on the premises could function I suppose. I'd only buy a Daytona at retail as that would fill out the third of the three watches I desire.
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Old 12 March 2020, 08:47 AM   #87
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You folks forget that forums like this are a distilled and probably skewed view into the buying behaviors of the vast majority of people that buy these baubles. Luxury goods, regardless of brand, get slammed in a recession like the one we could be entering here in the states. I have worked for companies that would hand out Rolex subs like appetizers at a national sales meeting, those same companies are not going to do that in a down economy. People with the discretionary income to still afford a 10K plus watch are also not going to blow this money on a watch, they are reloading to buy into the market at the bottom. Winter is coming kids.
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Old 12 March 2020, 08:51 AM   #88
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Not so sure about China getting back to normal.
Can you imagine the degree of panic when the virus really reaches the good old U.S. ? Europe is way in front of you and even here the worst is way to come
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Old 12 March 2020, 08:55 AM   #89
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I’d wait to see. According to what I see in this forum and maybe the newspaper, you guys may care less about the Corona virus than people in my country. In Vietnam, so far we have had 39 cases and thanks god there hasn’t been anyone died because of the virus yet. But recent days, the only thing people see on the TV, the internet or discuss with each other ALL about the Corona virus. The F&D and travel/tourism sector is in a VERY big trouble. The traffic used to be terrible in Hanoi during rush hours now people tend to stay home and try to avoid going out if unnecessary. Even my office requested all employees to work from home for this whole week before any further notice. A small story to share the public opinion can be very different between each country. I do not want another recession but it has come very close now.


Good to know. I was going to visit in April of this year. Hopefully you aren’t stuck there.


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Old 12 March 2020, 09:00 AM   #90
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Nope, I’m holding my reserves until I see how the market shakes out over the next month or two. Keeping reserves is more important, to me, than adding another watch (been collecting for years and I’m happy with my collection).
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