Expect even lower supply!

[LAREALTOR]

With Rolex being shut down now, according to my AD today he wouldn't be surprised if Rolex is out of production for months. If you think it was bad already we haven't seen anything yet.

[Chaching]

Who is gonna be buying a watch with Dow at 10k in the coming weeks, if we are lucky, biggest credit crunch since the Great Depression, Tens of millions unemployed here in the US and millions of deaths? A Rolex will be the last thing on most people’s minds. Just sayin.

[Ensign]

Originally Posted by Chaching

Who is gonna be buying a watch with Dow at 10k in the coming weeks, if we are lucky, biggest credit crunch since the Great Depression, Tens of millions unemployed here in the US and millions of deaths? A Rolex will be the last thing on most people’s minds. Just sayin.

This phenomenon of having half a dozen or more new Rolexes, over flowing watch boxes, and double incoming may come to an end. That excess will more than satisfy demand (whatever survives).

[newu5er]

I think that's taking it a little far. Millions of deaths? There's always someone buying. I haven't changed my purchasing habits.

[jerseyb]

People act like Rolex doesn't have stock ready to ship. They're not shipping units directly after they're completed. They probably have a vault filled with completed watches.

Sent from my Pixel using Tapatalk

[Chaching]

Originally Posted by newu5er

I think that's taking it a little far. Millions of deaths? There's always someone buying. I haven't changed my purchasing habits.

Worldwide...... based on the percentages we are seeing it’s not that far fetched.

[c41006]

Originally Posted by Chaching

Who is gonna be buying a watch with Dow at 10k in the coming weeks, if we are lucky, biggest credit crunch since the Great Depression, Tens of millions unemployed here in the US and millions of deaths? A Rolex will be the last thing on most people’s minds. Just sayin.

That’s a tad bit extreme

[snowvapor]

Originally Posted by c41006

That’s a tad bit extreme

You expect things to get better in a short period of time ?

Sent from my Pixel 3a XL using Tapatalk

[c41006]

Originally Posted by snowvapor

You expect things to get better in a short period of time ?

Sent from my Pixel 3a XL using Tapatalk

You expect the Dow at 10k and millions of deaths?

[socalwatchcollector]

Originally Posted by newu5er

I think that's taking it a little far. Millions of deaths? There's always someone buying. I haven't changed my purchasing habits.

+1 Close to 25000 people die from hunger EVERY day and another 25000 tomorrow and every day after that. This virus won't touch those numbers by a long shot.

[Chaching]

Originally Posted by c41006

That’s a tad bit extreme

I am in the trenches here from a modeling / economic standpoint.... it’s not that far fetched. US is not prepared for the Hell that’ll be unleashed in the coming weeks.... did you happen to see the Military Hospital Ships deployed, Cruise Lines being converted into Hospitals... come on! Wake up! Unemployment claims are skyrocketing already! This is like nothing we have ever seen. I am even worried and I typically don’t worry much.

[newu5er]

Originally Posted by c41006

You expect the Dow at 10k and millions of deaths?

Yeah that's where I found the statement over the top. He's probably closer with the unemployment numbers.

[Chaching]

Originally Posted by socalwatchcollector

+1 Close to 25000 people die from hunger EVERY day and another 25000 tomorrow and every day after that. This virus won't touch those numbers by a long shot.

When Tens of Millions of Americans are Unemployed and can’t put food on the table, loose their homes etc..... it isn’t gonna matter. I will also add the record levels of Corporate Debt Zombies out there. This is the straw that will break the Camel’s back.

[snowvapor]

Originally Posted by c41006

You expect the Dow at 10k and millions of deaths?

Honestly, I don't see it being far off.

We are already over 100 000 deaths worldwide, and some countries haven't even peaked yet. If you live in the US, every day you will see even more cases appear, and that's going to scare alot of people.

The Dow has already hit under 20k this week, and the stimulus packages and bank rate cuts don't seem to be helping much.

My own 0.02 cents.

Sent from my Pixel 3a XL using Tapatalk

[newu5er]

Originally Posted by snowvapor

Honestly, I don't see it being far off.

We are already over 100 000 deaths worldwide, and some countries haven't even peaked yet. If you live in the US, every day you will see even more cases appear, and that's going to scare alot of people.

The Dow has already hit under 20k this week, and the stimulus packages and bank rate cuts don't seem to be helping much.

My own 0.02 cents.

Sent from my Pixel 3a XL using Tapatalk

I haven't been following the news to closely, but are you positive we are at 100k deaths from COVID-19?

[c41006]

Originally Posted by snowvapor

Honestly, I don't see it being far off.

We are already over 100 000 deaths worldwide, and some countries haven't even peaked yet. If you live in the US, every day you will see even more cases appear, and that's going to scare alot of people.

The Dow has already hit under 20k this week, and the stimulus packages and bank rate cuts don't seem to be helping much.

My own 0.02 cents.

Sent from my Pixel 3a XL using Tapatalk

Where on earth are you getting that 100,000 deaths number from?

[c41006]

Originally Posted by newu5er

I haven't been following the news to closely, but are you positive we are at 100k deaths from COVID-19?

It’s more like 10,000

[MillyS]

Originally Posted by snowvapor

Honestly, I don't see it being far off.

We are already over 100 000 deaths worldwide, and some countries haven't even peaked yet. If you live in the US, every day you will see even more cases appear, and that's going to scare alot of people.

The Dow has already hit under 20k this week, and the stimulus packages and bank rate cuts don't seem to be helping much.

My own 0.02 cents.

Sent from my Pixel 3a XL using Tapatalk

We are at 10,025 deaths world wide, not 100,000.

[snowvapor]

Originally Posted by c41006

Where on earth are you getting that 100,000 deaths number from?

oops my bad, 1 extra zero.

Sent from my Pixel 3a XL using Tapatalk

[Chaching]

Originally Posted by c41006

It’s more like 10,000

Correct 10,031 currently. Those numbers are expected to rise exponentially over the next few weeks ahead.

[snowvapor]

Originally Posted by Chaching

Correct 10,031 currently

correct.

Assuming that a vaccine is will only be available in 12-18 months, people not staying home as recommended (i.e. spending spring break on the beach), hard hit countries barely peaking (Italy, Spain, UK, US), the numbers are going to up exponentially.

I hope I'm wrong, but I don't see it slowing down anywhere except China.

Sent from my Pixel 3a XL using Tapatalk

[H25B]

There’s more than enough sitting in safes and at grey dealers around the world to fill the gap.

Some people seem desperate to maintain this supply illusion, maybe because they’re starting to sweat a price collapse. There’s NEVER been a supply issue for those who actually intend to wear these watches.

I’d much rather we’d be in a healthy economy and I hope I’m wrong.

[gh0stleader]

This event is the equivalent of the Spanish flu and great depression smacking us at the same time.

[Chaching]

Originally Posted by gh0stleader

This event is the equivalent of the Spanish flu and great depression smacking us at the same time.

Yes agreed. Spanish Flu was 1918 pre Stock Market. It’s gonna be like something we never could have imagined. Unemployment is the biggest factor here guys. Record numbers. The $1,000 check and $500 for kids is a absolute joke for most. Won’t make a dent.

[mfserge]

Originally Posted by H25B

There’s more than enough sitting in safes and at grey dealers around the world to fill the gap.

Some people seem desperate to maintain this supply illusion, maybe because they’re starting to sweat a price collapse. There’s NEVER been a supply issue for those who actually intend to wear these watches.

I’d much rather we’d be in a healthy economy and I hope I’m wrong.

Those grey dealers with overflowing inventory should be concerned.

[socalwatchcollector]

Originally Posted by Chaching

When Tens of Millions of Americans are Unemployed and can’t put food on the table, loose their homes etc..... it isn’t gonna matter. I will also add the record levels of Corporate Debt Zombies out there. This is the straw that will break the Camel’s back.

I'm not debating those numbers but that amount of deaths will not happen with all the bright minds in medicine and the money that will be made from the vaccine and other meds. They need to keep people alive to maximize the profits that will be made from this mess. 10k people have died since December from this and even if it spreads most will survive. Around 9 million yearly lose their lives from starvation worldwide and there is no way it's touching that number even over a 5 year span. I agree with you that unemployment will be off the charts and the housing market will be the next to go. The only way people aren't going to lose their homes is with a mortgage program, or as you said the camel's back is going to break. The whopping 1k and change they want to give people is moronic IMO. I don't even consider that a bandaid for most people. Right or wrong it's still going to be a shit show.

On another note I spoke to one of my AD's today and he mentioned many people have been passing on watches they have been waiting a good amount of time for. Also spoke to a friend of mine last night who is a grey dealer and he sells a high volume of watches and holds a large inventory. He said he can't sell a watch right now to save his life and that he knows the inevitable is coming. Only time will tell because no one can see the future. Personally this whole thing has not deterred me from buying watches or anything else for that matter. Life is too short as it is to live in fear.

[snowvapor]

Originally Posted by socalwatchcollector

I'm not debating those numbers but that amount of deaths will not happen with all the bright minds in medicine and the money that will be made from the vaccine and other meds. They need to keep people alive to maximize the profits that will be made from this mess. 10k people have died since December from this and even if it spreads most will survive. Around 9 million yearly lose their lives from starvation worldwide and there is no way it's touching that number even over a 5 year span. I agree with you that unemployment will be off the charts and the housing market will be the next to go. The only way people aren't going to lose their homes is with a mortgage program, or as you said the camel's back is going to break. The whopping 1k and change they want to give people is moronic IMO. I don't even consider that a bandaid for most people.

I sincerely hope you're right. They were able to create an H1N1 vaccine relatively quick, so I'm hoping that's going to be the case as well.

Sent from my Pixel 3a XL using Tapatalk

[Chaching]

Originally Posted by socalwatchcollector

I'm not debating those numbers but that amount of deaths will not happen with all the bright minds in medicine and the money that will be made from the vaccine and other meds. They need to keep people alive to maximize the profits that will be made from this mess. 10k people have died since December from this and even if it spreads most will survive. Around 9 million yearly lose their lives from starvation worldwide and there is no way it's touching that number even over a 5 year span. I agree with you that unemployment will be off the charts and the housing market will be the next to go. The only way people aren't going to lose their homes is with a mortgage program, or as you said the camel's back is going to break. The whopping 1k and change they want to give people is moronic IMO. I don't even consider that a bandaid for most people.

The only worry here and you make a great point .. is 12-18 months out for a Coronavirus Vaccine. Come around this November it could fire up again ....that is some of the data we are seriously concerned about.

[sallyhats]

If we all do our part, including the government. They need to open up the piggy bank push 2+ trillion into the economy and we as citizens just stay home, do not go out for a couple of weeks we can peak out by April/May and get back to business by 3rd quarter. BOTH need to happen for a quick recovery. China is already in second gear, we can do the same.

[OrangeKenny]

I’d not compare this to the 1918 Spanish flu just yet. It’s estimated that ~27% of the global population caught that flu.
At the moment we are seeing 0.002%. Obviously that will increase but the understanding and communication we have today is incomparable.
This is a very serious situation and should be treated as such, but inciting hysteria will not help public health or the economy.