ROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEX
Today, 04:23 AM | #10561 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Jan 2019
Real Name: Jake
Location: Finest City
Watch: 16233, 116619LB
Posts: 1,970
|
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/comp...ay/ar-BB1kGdFq
BLUF: Sam Fried (FTX) sentences to 25yrs plus $11b fine.
__________________
What's the time? It's time to get ill. Wishlist: 128236; 5396G; 15550ST; 384.029 |
Today, 05:50 AM | #10562 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Jun 2023
Location: USA
Posts: 749
|
Quote:
This is the same group that didn’t see trouble brewing when others (like Siegel, who I reference above) noted the risks well in advance. When part of my job was interpreting Fed statements, the statements only informed near-term trading tactics and catalysts. Not medium or long-term projections. You don’t fight the Fed, but you can definitely do well to look past their projections when formulating longer-term strategies. If they had magical insights on macro indicators and where rates will (or should) be, at least some of them would likely have selected a different career… Look up their backgrounds and work histories sometime. They have resources at their disposal but, again, I would call their forecasting ability equivalent to alternatives (at best). Certainly not superior. Check their dot plot forecast in 2021… |
|
Today, 06:12 AM | #10563 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Jul 2020
Location: San Francisco Bay
Posts: 239
|
Speaking of predicting rates, I really like this tool which captures historical trends of Fed rate futures, per date: https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/int...atch-tool.html
It's nice to see a pulse on where the "market" sees rates going. Historical and dot-plot are really illuminating. The futures market is betting higher for longer as well, 2026 at 3.75% vs. 3.25% futures vs. Fed dotplot median. That's still 1.25% worth of cuts till then. Besides the futures, I tend to follow the bond markets such as the 10 and 30-yr treasury note yield ($TNX, $TYX). They are less volatile than the markets and are another good pulse on how people are pricing bonds currently given new economic news. |
Today, 06:13 AM | #10564 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Aug 2019
Real Name: Phillip
Location: Right here
Watch: SD43 Daytona Blusy
Posts: 1,771
|
Quote:
All that said, what I wrote above about the long term headwinds as it relates to severe inflationary pressures and how the Fed will not be able to cut as everyone thinks they can or will due to the stall out in the fall of prices. Just today, we had another reading on rents, which were in decline, but suddenly back up in 49 of 50 states. It's unknown if this is a one off, but if 98% of the states have increased rent prices, I'm thinking it is not. What I didn't add to that long post was the expected price hikes of all forms of energy. There was an energy conference in Texas a couple weeks ago and several high level companies in the AI industry were inquiring about natural gas powering data centers. Unlike crude, NG is at a low and this is what these data centers want to use to power their expenential grown in the future. Amazon recently purchased a nuclear plant to power their data center and right now, crude continues to climb. Couple that with a historic low in the SPR and any small disruption in supply will be costly on the backend. There is no margin for error right now as it relates to both crude and the electrical grid. |
|
Today, 09:03 AM | #10565 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Dec 2019
Location: Boston
Posts: 1,175
|
Quote:
It’s just that the pundits are so selling their own books that it’s comical compared to someone who is at least just trying to get it right for the country’s economy. I just was weighting the motivations, not the forecasting abilities. They are probably Both a little bit wrong and a little bit right LOL |
|
Today, 09:11 PM | #10566 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Jun 2023
Location: USA
Posts: 749
|
Quote:
I watch but wouldn’t position investments off the short-run implied rates (which I also track closely… as part of my job). You can trade off this, but I am not a trader (though I used to structure “large” trades as part of a bank’s prop trading desk). I watch the longer-term implied inflation figures because that is what should drive investment returns. 2.25% being at historic median is not worrisome. In fact, more indicators are pointing to deflationary risks emerging. The biggest inflationary threats today are energy related and housing. Energy is real, but a decline in general demand will likely temper that near-term. For longer-term I am partially hedged there through selective ownership of some “choice” energy stocks. Housing is very hard to predict - many lagged indicators should technically reverse and start to show declines. The question is the interaction between demand, limited supply (due to high mortgage rates vs prior creating disincentives to sell/move) and likely lower future rates. I usually have a good pulse on housing but really find the current market difficult to gauge… especially when you look at how some other markets have behaved, where affordability is far worse than in the US. How housing will respond to declining mortgage rates concurrent with (likely) reduced general economic demand will be fascinating to watch. |
|
Today, 09:19 PM | #10567 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Jun 2023
Location: USA
Posts: 749
|
Quote:
I tend to read what everyone has to say, even those I don’t respect in terms of their intellect or abilities. Just reading what others might be thinking is helpful in understanding the market psychology out there… the voting machine part vs the weighing machine part. |
|
Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests) | |
Thread Tools | |
Display Modes | |
|
|
*Banners
Of The Month*
This space is provided to horological resources.