The Rolex Forums   The Rolex Watch

ROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEX

Old Today, 04:23 AM   #10561
piratfisk
"TRF" Member
 
piratfisk's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2019
Real Name: Jake
Location: Finest City
Watch: 16233, 116619LB
Posts: 1,970
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/comp...ay/ar-BB1kGdFq

BLUF: Sam Fried (FTX) sentences to 25yrs plus $11b fine.
__________________
What's the time? It's time to get ill.

Wishlist: 128236; 5396G; 15550ST; 384.029
piratfisk is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Today, 05:50 AM   #10562
BraveBold
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2023
Location: USA
Posts: 749
Quote:
Originally Posted by BroncoOne View Post
Sqwack Box had two “experts” on today predicting opposite moves in interest rates with extreme confidence.

One happens to have an actual vote at the Fed. He’s higher for longer.
I wouldn’t put any more weight behind the Fed’s predictions vs other forecasters. Especially a single member.

This is the same group that didn’t see trouble brewing when others (like Siegel, who I reference above) noted the risks well in advance. When part of my job was interpreting Fed statements, the statements only informed near-term trading tactics and catalysts. Not medium or long-term projections.

You don’t fight the Fed, but you can definitely do well to look past their projections when formulating longer-term strategies. If they had magical insights on macro indicators and where rates will (or should) be, at least some of them would likely have selected a different career…

Look up their backgrounds and work histories sometime. They have resources at their disposal but, again, I would call their forecasting ability equivalent to alternatives (at best). Certainly not superior. Check their dot plot forecast in 2021…
BraveBold is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Today, 06:12 AM   #10563
eanzenberg
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2020
Location: San Francisco Bay
Posts: 239
Speaking of predicting rates, I really like this tool which captures historical trends of Fed rate futures, per date: https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/int...atch-tool.html

It's nice to see a pulse on where the "market" sees rates going. Historical and dot-plot are really illuminating. The futures market is betting higher for longer as well, 2026 at 3.75% vs. 3.25% futures vs. Fed dotplot median. That's still 1.25% worth of cuts till then.

Besides the futures, I tend to follow the bond markets such as the 10 and 30-yr treasury note yield ($TNX, $TYX). They are less volatile than the markets and are another good pulse on how people are pricing bonds currently given new economic news.
eanzenberg is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Today, 06:13 AM   #10564
SDGT3
"TRF" Member
 
SDGT3's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2019
Real Name: Phillip
Location: Right here
Watch: SD43 Daytona Blusy
Posts: 1,771
Quote:
Originally Posted by BraveBold View Post
I wouldn’t put any more weight behind the Fed’s predictions vs other forecasters. Especially a single member.

This is the same group that didn’t see trouble brewing when others (like Siegel, who I reference above) noted the risks well in advance. When part of my job was interpreting Fed statements, the statements only informed near-term trading tactics and catalysts. Not medium or long-term projections.

You don’t fight the Fed, but you can definitely do well to look past their projections when formulating longer-term strategies. If they had magical insights on macro indicators and where rates will (or should) be, at least some of them would likely have selected a different career…

Look up their backgrounds and work histories sometime. They have resources at their disposal but, again, I would call their forecasting ability equivalent to alternatives (at best). Certainly not superior. Check their dot plot forecast in 2021…
Generally speaking, I agree with your statement above, but I do give more credence to a person who actually has a vote as he has the ear and voice of other voters vs. pundits who predicted a recession in 2023 with multiple rate cuts only to be followed by saying there would be as much as 8 rate cuts in 2024. You'd have better luck with tarot card readers than these "experts."

All that said, what I wrote above about the long term headwinds as it relates to severe inflationary pressures and how the Fed will not be able to cut as everyone thinks they can or will due to the stall out in the fall of prices. Just today, we had another reading on rents, which were in decline, but suddenly back up in 49 of 50 states. It's unknown if this is a one off, but if 98% of the states have increased rent prices, I'm thinking it is not.

What I didn't add to that long post was the expected price hikes of all forms of energy. There was an energy conference in Texas a couple weeks ago and several high level companies in the AI industry were inquiring about natural gas powering data centers. Unlike crude, NG is at a low and this is what these data centers want to use to power their expenential grown in the future. Amazon recently purchased a nuclear plant to power their data center and right now, crude continues to climb. Couple that with a historic low in the SPR and any small disruption in supply will be costly on the backend. There is no margin for error right now as it relates to both crude and the electrical grid.
SDGT3 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Today, 09:03 AM   #10565
BroncoOne
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2019
Location: Boston
Posts: 1,175
Quote:
Originally Posted by BraveBold View Post
I wouldn’t put any more weight behind the Fed’s predictions vs other forecasters. Especially a single member.

This is the same group that didn’t see trouble brewing when others (like Siegel, who I reference above) noted the risks well in advance. When part of my job was interpreting Fed statements, the statements only informed near-term trading tactics and catalysts. Not medium or long-term projections.

You don’t fight the Fed, but you can definitely do well to look past their projections when formulating longer-term strategies. If they had magical insights on macro indicators and where rates will (or should) be, at least some of them would likely have selected a different career…

Look up their backgrounds and work histories sometime. They have resources at their disposal but, again, I would call their forecasting ability equivalent to alternatives (at best). Certainly not superior. Check their dot plot forecast in 2021…
Oh, for sure, they are no swamis with crystal balls!
It’s just that the pundits are so selling their own books that it’s comical compared to someone who is at least just trying to get it right for the country’s economy.

I just was weighting the motivations, not the forecasting abilities. They are probably Both a little bit wrong and a little bit right LOL
BroncoOne is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Today, 09:11 PM   #10566
BraveBold
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2023
Location: USA
Posts: 749
Quote:
Originally Posted by eanzenberg View Post
Speaking of predicting rates, I really like this tool which captures historical trends of Fed rate futures, per date: https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/int...atch-tool.html

It's nice to see a pulse on where the "market" sees rates going. Historical and dot-plot are really illuminating. The futures market is betting higher for longer as well, 2026 at 3.75% vs. 3.25% futures vs. Fed dotplot median. That's still 1.25% worth of cuts till then.

Besides the futures, I tend to follow the bond markets such as the 10 and 30-yr treasury note yield ($TNX, $TYX). They are less volatile than the markets and are another good pulse on how people are pricing bonds currently given new economic news.
I referenced a market implied metric earlier. Inflation levels implied by the 10Y. It is about 2.25%… right around the median of the past 20 years. It rose up to 3% and has come back down significantly.

I watch but wouldn’t position investments off the short-run implied rates (which I also track closely… as part of my job). You can trade off this, but I am not a trader (though I used to structure “large” trades as part of a bank’s prop trading desk).

I watch the longer-term implied inflation figures because that is what should drive investment returns. 2.25% being at historic median is not worrisome.

In fact, more indicators are pointing to deflationary risks emerging. The biggest inflationary threats today are energy related and housing. Energy is real, but a decline in general demand will likely temper that near-term. For longer-term I am partially hedged there through selective ownership of some “choice” energy stocks. Housing is very hard to predict - many lagged indicators should technically reverse and start to show declines. The question is the interaction between demand, limited supply (due to high mortgage rates vs prior creating disincentives to sell/move) and likely lower future rates. I usually have a good pulse on housing but really find the current market difficult to gauge… especially when you look at how some other markets have behaved, where affordability is far worse than in the US. How housing will respond to declining mortgage rates concurrent with (likely) reduced general economic demand will be fascinating to watch.
BraveBold is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Today, 09:19 PM   #10567
BraveBold
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2023
Location: USA
Posts: 749
Quote:
Originally Posted by BroncoOne View Post
Oh, for sure, they are no swamis with crystal balls!
It’s just that the pundits are so selling their own books that it’s comical compared to someone who is at least just trying to get it right for the country’s economy.

I just was weighting the motivations, not the forecasting abilities. They are probably Both a little bit wrong and a little bit right LOL
Healthy view for sure. Many pundits are biased. Some are great, some less so.

I tend to read what everyone has to say, even those I don’t respect in terms of their intellect or abilities. Just reading what others might be thinking is helpful in understanding the market psychology out there… the voting machine part vs the weighing machine part.
BraveBold is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

Takuya Watches

Bobs Watches

My Watch LLC

OCWatches

DavidSW Watches

Coronet


*Banners Of The Month*
This space is provided to horological resources.





Copyright ©2004-2024, The Rolex Forums. All Rights Reserved.

ROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEX

Rolex is a registered trademark of ROLEX USA. The Rolex Forums is not affiliated with ROLEX USA in any way.