The RO Blue Hype is heading toward 5711 territory

[AutoBay]

MAN! Talk about fast. Over the last six months, I've watched the prices on blue 15400s and 15202s start to rocket to the moon. Obviously, blue dials have always been a tougher get, but it's now been confirmed to me by ADs all up and down the west coast of the US that these blue 15400s and 15202s and now 100% boutique only, and if you call the boutique, you're laughed off the phone asking for one. Now, I managed to get one grey, but dam AP - way to grind it into the faces of your fans.

[AK797]

The two blue dials have been in short supply for a while now, esp in UK, but I think prices haven't moved up that much, altho with PP's move I think these resales will move now as well. What's pricing like in US?

[AutoBay]

Originally Posted by AK797

The two blue dials have been in short supply for a while now, esp in UK, but I think prices haven't moved up that much, altho with PP's move I think these resales will move now as well. What's pricing like in US?

It's looking like $17500-20000 for blue 15400s and $26000-28000 for 15202s. Nutty.

[GB-man]

When they start going for 5711 prices mine will be FOR SALE

[walds11]

Don’t forget to give the 15300 some love

[OmeletteDuFromage]

mother recently got a 15450 and loves it. just wants to change to leather or rubber strap.
I had a blue 15400 sold for profit and bought a black one.

[tonupbklyn]

Originally Posted by GB-man

When they start going for 5711 prices mine will be FOR SALE

already in my head!

[benlee]

Originally Posted by GB-man

When they start going for 5711 prices mine will be FOR SALE

Originally Posted by tonupbklyn

already in my head!

You sure? That's what my friend did with his 5711 a year ago and now he can't stop banging himself on the head.

I think AP intend to make the SS 15202 the equivalent of Patek's 5711 and they are about half way there. So I expect AP to follow with a price increase soon. I will not sell if I will you.

[dchang81]

good thing I decided against selling my 15202 to a trusted seller for 15k last year.

[tonupbklyn]

Originally Posted by benlee

You sure? That's what my friend did with his 5711 a year ago and now he can't stop banging himself on the head.

I think AP intend to make the SS 15202 the equivalent of Patek's 5711 and they are about half way there. So I expect AP to follow with a price increase soon. I will not sell if I will you.

not right away, but as levels start increasing... and cuz with my recent acquisition i feel there is enough overlap to remove the redundancy.
but for time being will continue to enjoy having it

[GB-man]

Originally Posted by benlee

You sure? That's what my friend did with his 5711 a year ago and now he can't stop banging himself on the head.

I think AP intend to make the SS 15202 the equivalent of Patek's 5711 and they are about half way there. So I expect AP to follow with a price increase soon. I will not sell if I will you.

I am just like your friend. I sold my 5711 about 2 years ago so I know how that feels. I was good with it at the time though so hindsight 20/20.

I don’t think these watches are worth 40k end of story. They aren’t to me anyways. I also don’t believe this is sustainable. I’ll pick one up next time the market tanks for below retail just as I did my 5711 and current 15202.

[Tay821]

Originally Posted by GB-man

When they start going for 5711 prices mine will be FOR SALE

I’m taking delivery next month of a 15202. Paying retail

[tng11]

Originally Posted by AutoBay

It's looking like $17500-20000 for blue 15400s and $26000-28000 for 15202s. Nutty.

Nah, some people are asking those prices but aren't actually moving them at that price. I've seen completely BNIB pieces going for a tiny premium, but not at those prices yet.

Wake me up when it's $40K, otherwise it will continue to be on my wrist.

I don't think it'll ever be the same situation as the 5711 because there's the 15400 beside the 15202. Lots of people (non-TRFers and non-WIS) seem to prefer the 15400 because it's bigger. They don't care the 15202 is more "pure", "thin" or whatever. A few people with 15400s have asked if my 15202 is a lower priced version. Whereas with the 5711, there really isn't a substitute in their own line for that time-only piece.

[AutoBay]

Originally Posted by dchang81

good thing I decided against selling my 15202 to a trusted seller for 15k last year.

OOF, that would have been BRUTAL

[AutoBay]

Originally Posted by tng11

Nah, some people are asking those prices but aren't actually moving them at that price. I've seen completely BNIB pieces going for a tiny premium, but not at those prices yet.

Wake me up when it's $40K, otherwise it will continue to be on my wrist.

I don't think it'll ever be the same situation as the 5711 because there's the 15400 beside the 15202. Lots of people (non-TRFers and non-WIS) seem to prefer the 15400 because it's bigger. They don't care the 15202 is more "pure", "thin" or whatever. A few people with 15400s have asked if my 15202 is a lower priced version. Whereas with the 5711, there really isn't a substitute in their own line for that time-only piece.

"Wake me up when it's 40K" - Quote of the night

[AK797]

Originally Posted by GB-man

I am just like your friend. I sold my 5711 about 2 years ago so I know how that feels. I was good with it at the time though so hindsight 20/20.

I don’t think these watches are worth 40k end of story. They aren’t to me anyways. I also don’t believe this is sustainable. I’ll pick one up next time the market tanks for below retail just as I did my 5711 and current 15202.

They aren't even really worth their retail either for what they are, even given the cached premium of the brand name. I argued against its price many times before in the past, and that seemed borne out when the 5711R was released at a price of only around double the SS, as opposed to the 4 times of Rolex, but that was a lifetime ago now.

[benlee]

Actually there isn't any intrinsic value for these watches to be worth this much. It's currently worth this much because this is what the market is willing to pay for.

[Chary]

I'm glad I like the black one more!!! lol...

[GB-man]

Originally Posted by benlee

Actually there isn't any intrinsic value for these watches to be worth this much. It's currently worth this much because this is what the market is willing to pay for.

I understand that of course. I just don’t think there is room to run that’s all. I think people who sell their 5711/1A for 40k+ are smart. Assuming of course they have other uses for the money.

I also agree with tom. I don’t see a big run on jumbos because of the cheaper 15400.

[tyler1980]

I think AP can raise prices and then availability will improve as i dont think the demand is there to also sustain a grey market rise too, where as with Patek the 11 and 12 will also continue to see grey market premiums on top of the 20% price rise. Overall availability won't improve with the Patek's.

If AP raised prices that much you could walk into a boutique and buy either a blue 15400 or SS 15202 IMO.

[Xerxes77]

Originally Posted by tyler1980

I think AP can raise prices and then availability will improve as i dont think the demand is there to also sustain a grey market rise too, where as with Patek the 11 and 12 will also continue to see grey market premiums on top of the 20% price rise. Overall availability won't improve with the Patek's.

If AP raised prices that much you could walk into a boutique and buy either a blue 15400 or SS 15202 IMO.

Agree with you!
AP don’t have now demands to can rise price so high!

[conkers]

Be interesting to see how the new dial 15202 trades with only 250 pieces.

[GB-man]

Originally Posted by conkers

Be interesting to see how the new dial 15202 trades with only 250 pieces.

Your guess is better than mine but I would imagine for a healthy premium initially then head back towards retail. If they really hold back on 15202 production like they seem to be posturing then it could sell for well over initially.

That said, it is not a design decision that makes any sense to me but I digress.

[bayerische]

I can not phantom the idea paying over retail. It's just a watch after all.

[ezinhk]

Originally Posted by AK797

They aren't even really worth their retail either for what they are, even given the cached premium of the brand name. I argued against its price many times before in the past, and that seemed borne out when the 5711R was released at a price of only around double the SS, as opposed to the 4 times of Rolex, but that was a lifetime ago now.

I agree...especially for an AP For PP, that's another story!

[AK797]

Originally Posted by ezinhk

I agree...especially for an AP For PP, that's another story!

The Nautilus is very highly priced, but sadly not remotely over-priced.

[wiswrist]

Definitely seems like they're cutting back on Blue 15400s and 15202s ... the NYC boutquie is only expecting a handful of Blue 15400 allocations for 2018.

[tyler1980]

Originally Posted by rac10000

Definitely seems like they're cutting back on Blue 15400s and 15202s ... the NYC boutquie is only expecting a handful of Blue 15400 allocations for 2018.

I agree. That is the key here. Demand is absolutely not increasing. Supply is being cut. They are harder to get but i still doubt people are going to pay ridiculous premiums for one. Great watches to have, sure, but this is going to backfire as most will just move on as its just not a "wait a year" watch in either variety. I know I couldn't justify that. Just yesterday some guy said a 15450 was a better part of a year wait, that is obscene.

[AK797]

Originally Posted by tyler1980

I agree. That is the key here. Demand is absolutely not increasing. Supply is being cut. They are harder to get but i still doubt people are going to pay ridiculous premiums for one. Great watches to have, sure, but this is going to backfire as most will just move on as its just not a "wait a year" watch in either variety. I know I couldn't justify that. Just yesterday some guy said a 15450 was a better part of a year wait, that is obscene.

I think the response to the PP rise will tell us a lot here, if demand is healthy they will want to match or part match the rise, but if demand is fairly weak, they might keep their prices stable to establish a wider delta and siphon off their customers.

[tyler1980]

Originally Posted by AK797

I think the response to the PP rise will tell us a lot here, if demand is healthy they will want to match or part match the rise, but if demand is fairly weak, they might keep their prices stable to establish a wider delta and siphon off their customers.

its just weird as almost every "normal" watch is very hard to get across the RO and ROO lines. People are going to get turned off.

Just today I was trying on the VC overseas chrono again. I finally figured out what it is. Its not an alternative to a RO, its an alternative to a ROO. Its big and chunky like an offshore. Between that and my favorite ROO release of the year (the beast), i would chose the VC. Plus I can actually find the VC, so its a win win.
Seriously considering it actually.

I think the other brands are going to be the winners in the artificial scarcity game, because they are not playing.