US CC and Household Debt At Record Levels

[TheVTCGuy]

Originally Posted by EEpro

Actually caught a MAJOR dealer selling fake ruthenium coated silver krugs with mine. When I brought it to their attention (not even seeking a $60 / coin refund but simply informing them) I got banned from eBay until I dropped the complaint. I sent the sample data to Sigma Metalytics who confirmed it was a magnetic material whose size and weight perfectly matched ideal proportions.

I read your post and tried to understand everything but my head exploded…

[EEpro]

Originally Posted by TheVTCGuy

I read your post and tried to understand everything but my head exploded…

This is the silver krugerrand coated in ruthenium. The ones they were selling were fakes matched to size and weight.

Only by using that PMV machine (pictured above) was I able to tell that it was a fake because the conductivity reading of the metal was incorrect. I had the manufacturer of the machine Sigma Metalytics confirm my measurement. Fake.

Bullion buyers beware. Even major bullion houses can inadvertently pass fakes and the recourse isn't pretty.

[pickettt]

Originally Posted by EEpro

Actually caught a MAJOR dealer selling fake ruthenium coated silver krugs with mine. When I brought it to their attention (not even seeking a $60 / coin refund but simply informing them) I got banned from eBay until I dropped the complaint. I sent the sample data to Sigma Metalytics who confirmed it was a magnetic material whose size and weight perfectly matched ideal proportions.

Seriously, I bring mine with me. I can't say I've ever had a dealer try to pass anything over on me. Also, no dealer I've ever been to has taken offense to me testing before I take possession...which leads me to this question; If you leave with it and find it to be fake, how do you prove (to them) that it came from them?

[Redfoot]

Originally Posted by EEpro

This is the silver krugerrand coated in ruthenium. The ones they were selling were fakes matched to size and weight.

Only by using that PMV machine (pictured above) was I able to tell that it was a fake because the conductivity reading of the metal was incorrect. I had the manufacturer of the machine Sigma Metalytics confirm my measurement. Fake.

Bullion buyers beware. Even major bullion houses can inadvertently pass fakes and the recourse isn't pretty.

I enjoy collecting small amounts of bullion, and this just made me very nervous. I only deal with reputable dealers, and one will actually do the testing in front of you, but this still makes me cringe. Some stackers will buy anything from anybody- makes one wonder how much fake or less than real gets moved around daily.....

[enjoythemusic]

Originally Posted by Redfoot

...makes one wonder how much fake or less than real gets moved around daily.....

And then there's 'paper' gold / silver (GLD / SLV). We know for fact precious metal pricing get manipulated by majors and they've been fined for it, but does it matter when 'small investors' can't recoup their losses?

[Redfoot]

Originally Posted by enjoythemusic

And then there's 'paper' gold / silver (GLD / SLV). We know for fact precious metal pricing get manipulated by majors and they've been fined for it, but does it matter when 'small investors' can't recoup their losses?

Yes, it has been interesting to watch both physical and paper precious metals over the past 2+ years.

Some firmly believe the spot prices have been kept artificially low to keep people spending money on credit, buying materialistic junk, and to keep their money in the declining stock market. I think it is interesting that silver is one of the only things to drop in price during this inflationary time, when it is one of the oldest mediums of intrinsic value. Not to mention that the cost to mine has to have gone up, and the use in solar panels, electronics and medical equipment keeps increasing.

[EEpro]

Originally Posted by pickettt

Seriously, I bring mine with me. I can't say I've ever had a dealer try to pass anything over on me. Also, no dealer I've ever been to has taken offense to me testing before I take possession...which leads me to this question; If you leave with it and find it to be fake, how do you prove (to them) that it came from them?

You should. I only deal face to face now because of this scared straight moment and your final point. It surely sounds like a scam to them if they truly believe they are innocent.

My particular order had 2 fake silver coins, some real 10 oz queens beasts and over $20,000 in real (thankfully) 1 oz gold krugs. I traded them all for a full gold submariner last summer

[macrowatch]

Originally Posted by EEpro

You should. I only deal face to face now because of this scared straight moment and your final point. It surely sounds like a scam to them if they truly believe they are innocent.

My particular order had 2 fake silver coins, some real 10 oz queens beasts and over $20,000 in real (thankfully) 1 oz gold krugs. I traded them all for a full gold submariner last summer

That's pretty epic!

Sounds like the best guarantee for authenticity is the Rolex foundry and certificate of authenticity for gold! Ha.

[kieselguhr]

Originally Posted by pickettt

Let me ask you all this; When was the last time you LENT (not gave) money to someone that you KNEW was incapable of paying it back?

I have a friend. He’s the kind that always asks you to pay for a game of golf and then he will “Venmo” you later. It never happens. He asked me desperately one day for several thousand which I lent him. I had a gut feeling I would never see it again. I was right. Come to find out later that he used the money to pay another friend that he owed money for more than a year. He’s got a gambling problem among other problems. I’ve tried talking to him and telling him he’s far down a dark road but maybe because I am a lot younger I suspect he doesn’t hear me. He is still my friend but I avoid hanging out with him. He’s tried to reach out to me about starting a medical business together. I just can’t take the idea of going into business with the guy seriously. Not at this time. Cool guy. He’s helped talk me through problems I had at the beginning of my career. Just not the person I remember. Wish I could help him the same way he helped me but throwing money his way is just enabling.

[brandrea]

Originally Posted by kieselguhr

I have a friend. He’s the kind that always asks you to pay for a game of golf and then he will “Venmo” you later. It never happens. He asked me desperately one day for several thousand which I lent him. I had a gut feeling I would never see it again. I was right. Come to find out later that he used the money to pay another friend that he owed money for more than a year. He’s got a gambling problem among other problems. I’ve tried talking to him and telling him he’s far down a dark road but maybe because I am a lot younger I suspect he doesn’t hear me. He is still my friend but I avoid hanging out with him. He’s tried to reach out to me about starting a medical business together. I just can’t take the idea of going into business with the guy seriously. Not at this time. Cool guy. He’s helped talk me through problems I had at the beginning of my career. Just not the person I remember. Wish I could help him the same way he helped me but throwing money his way is just enabling.

His name wouldn’t happen to be Jon would it?

Not to make light of your post …. But I have (had) a friend who is (was) the exact same.

It was always so frustrating to me, as he had everything going for him, including money and opportunity (when he was much younger).

[enjoythemusic]

Originally Posted by kieselguhr

Wish I could help him the same way he helped me but throwing money his way is just enabling.

Oh man, yeah i feel ya there and we have a relative like that... he's where currency goes to die. We stopped enabling him long ago, he finally hit bottom recently and he'll have to figure things out for himself from here on out.

[Calatrava r]

There is good debt and bad debt. Buying a home with a mortgage is an example of good debt. Buying things on credit cards which cannot be paid off in full each month is typically bad debt unless it an expected must purchase such as new AC, etc.

[Old Geezer]

Too many people at all socio-economic levels want immediate gratification and never pause to think about the possibility of their business seeing a downturn, losing a job, getting sick and not being able to work for a while or other issues. Some go as far as filing bankruptcy and doing it all over again. As is usually the case, those lower income earners legitimately trying to make a decent living, acting responsibly to provide for their families are the ones who will be most harmed by a recession.

[Star Ferry]

Originally Posted by Old Geezer

Too many people at all socio-economic levels want immediate gratification and never pause to think about the possibility of their business seeing a downturn, losing a job, getting sick and not being able to work for a while or other issues. Some go as far as filing bankruptcy and doing it all over again. As is usually the case, those lower income earners legitimately trying to make a decent living, acting responsibly to provide for their families are the ones who will be most harmed by a recession.

Agree. Obviously life is not fair, but people trying to live beyond their means are making things harder for themselves. Being dealt a bad hand is one thing, but overplaying it is another.

[Old Geezer]

Originally Posted by Star Ferry

Agree. Obviously life is not fair, but people trying to live beyond their means are making things harder for themselves. Being dealt a bad hand is one thing, but overplaying it is another.

Honestly, I’m not as sympathetic to the players that dug their own hole living beyond their means. They should be accountable and deal with the consequences of their own decisions. Unfortunately their actions are making matters worse for a whole bunch of people who weren’t playing the game and are now getting dealt a losing hand through no faullt of their own.

[Moondoggy]

Originally Posted by kieselguhr

I have a friend. He’s the kind that always asks you to pay for a game of golf and then he will “Venmo” you later. It never happens. He asked me desperately one day for several thousand which I lent him. I had a gut feeling I would never see it again. I was right. Come to find out later that he used the money to pay another friend that he owed money for more than a year. He’s got a gambling problem among other problems. I’ve tried talking to him and telling him he’s far down a dark road but maybe because I am a lot younger I suspect he doesn’t hear me. He is still my friend but I avoid hanging out with him. He’s tried to reach out to me about starting a medical business together. I just can’t take the idea of going into business with the guy seriously. Not at this time. Cool guy. He’s helped talk me through problems I had at the beginning of my career. Just not the person I remember. Wish I could help him the same way he helped me but throwing money his way is just enabling.

like, rule one don't go into business with someone who has nothing to lose.

[Moondoggy]

https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=850977

What was end price maybe <17k

[Db7566]

Originally Posted by GB-man

I’m not lending a dime to anyone. Everything I have is for my wife and son. If you’re not them you can fly a kite.

Never heard the phrase “fly a kite” thank you for that.


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[Blansky]

An interesting read:

https://annehelen.substack.com/p/bud...8-7abcec5a575c

[Db7566]

Originally Posted by Star Ferry

Disney World is a place that used to cater to middle class families. now seems to cater to wealthy families and well-heeled international visitors.

It's definitely sad that people think being a good parent requires taking their kid to Disney World at least once, especially if that perceived obligation causes financial burden to the family.

Went in may with my my wife and two kids. 5k all in for 6 nights and 5 days in the parks. We stayed at a lower end resort and spent money in the parks about as rapidly as my sanity would allow.

I thought it was a reasonable amount of money and over all worth it. Won’t go again for several years.


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[GB-man]

Originally Posted by Db7566

Never heard the phrase “fly a kite” thank you for that.


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You’re welcome. Feel free to use it at your leisure. Maybe a better one is what my 96 year old great grandmother use to say “go rub salt up your a**”

[shaunylw]

Originally Posted by Db7566

Went in may with my my wife and two kids. 5k all in for 6 nights and 5 days in the parks. We stayed at a lower end resort and spent money in the parks about as rapidly as my sanity would allow.

I thought it was a reasonable amount of money and over all worth it. Won’t go again for several years.


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That seems very reasonable for Disney world. The nice part is there are so many places to stay.


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[Turbo Racer]

Originally Posted by mountainjogger

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/09/cred...duce-debt.html

I am fortunate not to have any debt. I am also a believer that the Fed is behind the curve and needs to seriously increase rates to try to get a grip on inflation. But I fear there is going to be a lot of pain for the average household.

Thoughts?

I posted part of this on the retirement thread:

I think right now, there is a lot of uncertainty with markets. Debt;gdp ~125%. Interest rates rising and to me, some of the questions I have are: How well will these zombie corporations do well with floating debt that costs? What about the shadow banking system? How leveraged are people? How will this insane inflation be tamped out?

I have watched the disaster in the crypto market. It is truly like watching a train wreck in slow motion. I think there will be more defaults and margin calls. What I wonder is if this will bleed over into traditional markets? Is there systemic risk?

I don’t know what will happen at all, but I’m thinking about things much more. I am conservative by nature and a bit of a bear, but I still see the buy the dip mentality and I really believe this is short sighted. I am hunkering down and taking a wait and see approach.

I think that if rates keep going up, something is going to break and then we will be racing for the bottom. Painful but maybe healthy by getting rid of frothy investments, companies that don’t perform well. If this happens, we should see disinflation or even deflation (would honestly be welcome; I went to breakfast at a street cafe, nothing fancy breakfast sandwich and cappuccino $70 for 2 of us. Insane.).

If interest rate hikes lead to systemic risk and credit stops, then the fed will have no choice but to ease and lower rates without effectively lowering inflation. That includes the fed. Our debt to gdp is super high. Raising interest rates in the face of a recession makes it much harder for the USA government to pay its debt.

In either of these scenarios, cash would be king and cheap asset acquisition would rule the day.

Other perspectives are that the fed will engineer a soft landing and get the inflation down and we have a mild recession and pull out of it as business as usual. In that case hedge, and then decide where to allocate funds.

Anyways, all of those scenarios for me lead to one thing and that is to continue to work and do my best to humbly plan for the future.

As far as cc debt goes, I pay mine off every month in full and try to live debt free as much as possible. I really hope we get kind of a soft landing with low inflation.

[Moondoggy]

These were floating around 30's couple of months ago.

https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=858021