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Old 27 February 2020, 04:37 AM   #301
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Originally Posted by crew View Post
H1N1 is the flu. I think it specifically refers to Swine Flu, but it is I believe it is also generic for flu in general.
I’m not a medical guy, at all, so feel free to correct my interpretation if this is your profession.

Ok, just looked at this a little closer online.
Here’s a quick synopsis:
“Flu (influenza) viruses are divided into four broad categories: influenza A, B, C or D. Influenza A is the most common type. H1N1 flu is a subtype of influenza A.”
I am not in the medical field and have zero knowledge regarding this subject matter. I was just curious how this virus stacked up to the flu.

The numbers don't mean anything if the data being reported is not correct.

Fingers crossed.
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Old 27 February 2020, 04:38 AM   #302
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I'm in the US, and I'm shocked some people here are taking this so seriously.

“The immediate health risk from 2019-nCoV to the general public in the United States is thought to be low at this time,” says Gabor Kelen, a medical doctor and director of the Johns Hopkins Office of Critical Event Preparedness and Response.

But, with 100 24 hour news stations, they have to beat SOME drum loudly.

57 cases in the United States. Zero deaths.

We have three times as many cases of leprosy in the United States, and I think folks understand we have that under control.

San Francisco declares a state of emergency after... zero... cases.

The motivation is not humanitarian.
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Old 27 February 2020, 04:43 AM   #303
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CashGap View Post
I'm in the US, and I'm shocked some people here are taking this so seriously.

ďThe immediate health risk from 2019-nCoV to the general public in the United States is thought to be low at this time,Ē says Gabor Kelen, a medical doctor and director of the Johns Hopkins Office of Critical Event Preparedness and Response.

But, with 100 24 hour news stations, they have to beat SOME drum loudly.

57 cases in the United States. Zero deaths.

We have three times as many cases of leprosy in the United States, and I think folks understand we have that under control.

San Francisco declares a state of emergency after... zero... cases.

The motivation is not humanitarian.
Agree.

Itís a big CYA. For just in case.

We live in an era of finger pointing and everyone is terrified of losing their job if they didnít handle it all correctly.
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Old 27 February 2020, 04:43 AM   #304
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Originally Posted by CashGap View Post
I'm in the US, and I'm shocked some people here are taking this so seriously.

ďThe immediate health risk from 2019-nCoV to the general public in the United States is thought to be low at this time,Ē says Gabor Kelen, a medical doctor and director of the Johns Hopkins Office of Critical Event Preparedness and Response.

But, with 100 24 hour news stations, they have to beat SOME drum loudly.

57 cases in the United States. Zero deaths.

We have three times as many cases of leprosy in the United States, and I think folks understand we have that under control.

San Francisco declares a state of emergency after... zero... cases.

The motivation is not humanitarian.
I personally think London Breed made a good call because 1. We are a gateway city with high flux of international throughput 2. It provide access to budgets to prepare.
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Old 27 February 2020, 05:09 AM   #305
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2. It provide access to budgets to prepare.
Oh I agree, money grab.

I have to laugh at how that budget will be used. Probably funding for art works to show the impact of the potential illness on group X, Y, Z.

This plus the "Crisis/Concern/Control" attitude. Create a crisis, feign concern, seize control.

People are eating it up though.
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Old 27 February 2020, 05:17 AM   #306
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Many people are saying it’s like getting a cold.

Still researching whether this is accurate.
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Old 27 February 2020, 05:29 AM   #307
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Originally Posted by crew View Post
H1N1 is the flu. I think it specifically refers to Swine Flu, but it is I believe it is also generic for flu in general.
Iím not a medical guy, at all, so feel free to correct my interpretation if this is your profession.
[/I][/B]
Scientist here (but not a virologist, so YMMV).

H1N1 refers to hemagglutinin type 1 and neuraminidase type 1. It is a classification system, derived from proteins found on the specific virus strains. Hemagglutinin typically will help binding to a host cell, and neuraminidase will regulate the viral release from host cell.

The coronaviruses are a little different given that they typically originate from an animal source, and "novel" coronaviruses have never been detected in humans before. This typically means a novel exposure method or, more commonly, the mutation of a strain that increases properties regulating the infection probability of humans.

This coronavirus is specifically scary because 1) there is no first-line defense (i.e. vaccines), meaning that 2) more people are vulnerable, and this is bad because 3) the symptoms appear to be quite severe, and respiratory in nature, which can lead to death.

While influenza kills tens of thousands of people a year, that is expected so it isn't news. They are also typically vulnerable populations, and if nothing else there are vaccines to help minimize risk and economic vulnerability.

With a novel virus like this, there are no defenses so everyone is vulnerable, and the only way to contain an outbreak is to shut everything down. If that happens in a first-world economy, the economic outlook may trickle and be severe. Fear of the latter is what we're seeing now in the markets.

.
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Old 27 February 2020, 05:35 AM   #308
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Originally Posted by mykii View Post
Scientist here (but not a virologist, so YMMV).

H1N1 refers to hemagglutinin type 1 and neuraminidase type 1. It is a classification system, derived from proteins found on the specific virus strains. Hemagglutinin typically will help binding to a host cell, and neuraminidase will regulate the viral release from host cell.

The coronaviruses are a little different given that they typically originate from an animal source, and "novel" coronaviruses have never been detected in humans before. This typically means a novel exposure method or, more commonly, the mutation of a strain that increases properties regulating the infection probability of humans.

This coronavirus is specifically scary because 1) there is no first-line defense (i.e. vaccines), meaning that 2) more people are vulnerable, and this is bad because 3) the symptoms appear to be quite severe, and respiratory in nature, which can lead to death.

While influenza kills tens of thousands of people a year, that is expected so it isn't news. They are also typically vulnerable populations, and if nothing else there are vaccines to help minimize risk and economic vulnerability.

With a novel virus like this, there are no defenses so everyone is vulnerable, and the only way to contain an outbreak is to shut everything down. If that happens in a first-world economy, the economic outlook may trickle and be severe. Fear of the latter is what we're seeing now in the markets.

.
Thanks for the breakdown.
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Old 27 February 2020, 05:35 AM   #309
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Originally Posted by mykii View Post
Scientist here (but not a virologist, so YMMV).

H1N1 refers to hemagglutinin type 1 and neuraminidase type 1. It is a classification system, derived from proteins found on the specific virus strains. Hemagglutinin typically will help binding to a host cell, and neuraminidase will regulate the viral release from host cell.

The coronaviruses are a little different given that they typically originate from an animal source, and "novel" coronaviruses have never been detected in humans before. This typically means a novel exposure method or, more commonly, the mutation of a strain that increases properties regulating the infection probability of humans.

This coronavirus is specifically scary because 1) there is no first-line defense (i.e. vaccines), meaning that 2) more people are vulnerable, and this is bad because 3) the symptoms appear to be quite severe, and respiratory in nature, which can lead to death.

While influenza kills tens of thousands of people a year, that is expected so it isn't news. They are also typically vulnerable populations, and if nothing else there are vaccines to help minimize risk and economic vulnerability.

With a novel virus like this, there are no defenses so everyone is vulnerable, and the only way to contain an outbreak is to shut everything down. If that happens in a first-world economy, the economic outlook may trickle and be severe. Fear of the latter is what we're seeing now in the markets.

.
Short and to the point. Thanks for your input!
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Old 27 February 2020, 07:18 AM   #310
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So as far as you’re concerned you are expecting full blown global panic? I mean economies destroyed, jobs lost, Olympics canceled and pure pandemonium? Basically global meltdown?
Global meltdown is words in my mouth.


I think the Tokyo Olympics are toast though barring an immediate stop to all new cases.

The Japaanese government will not go through Diamond Princess PR disaster but this time with possibly millions coming into the city hotels, venues and food/ bars/ tourist attractions and mingling with and putting to risk all of Japan.

The public won’t allow it.
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Old 27 February 2020, 07:29 AM   #311
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3:34 pm: 83 New York residents placed in self-quarantine after returning from China
Nassau County health officials said that they have placed 83 Americans in self-quarantine after returning to New York from China amid concerns they were exposed to the new coronavirus. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention notified local officials that a plane was carrying Nassau County residents with “potential exposure” to the virus, Health Commissioner for Nassau County Dr. Lawrence Eisenstein told reporters. Potential exposure, in this case, means that they had traveled to China in the past 14 days. —Feuer
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/26/coro...t-updates.html
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Old 27 February 2020, 08:38 AM   #312
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It would be wrong to be complacent about this disease as the mortality rate is much higher than 'regular' flu - but the transmission is just as prevalent. Let's hope it can be contained and that a vaccine can be found.

There is talk of the Olympic games being under threat and sporting fixtures in Europe are already being cancelled - Ireland V Italy rugby being one such fixture and Formula One events are under threat.
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Old 27 February 2020, 08:58 AM   #313
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It is easy to forget the indirect impacts of the Covin-19 virus, e.g. I have a British colleague who recently got back from a business trip to Singapore. Because of the other British travel that brought the virus back, his KIDS are now not allowed to go to school for two weeks (as a precaution, my colleague has shown no signs of being infected by the virus) Now the family have to arrange for homeschooling to ensure the kids don't fall behind, and one parent has to be home from work to take care of kids.
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Old 27 February 2020, 10:36 AM   #314
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I hear people saying this is overblown because not many people are dying. This is not the problem that we should be worried about.

The real issue we may face with this is that this virus causes more severe symptoms, even if non-fatal, than many strains of influenza we are used to seeing. If we have even close to a 50% lower rate of transmission, actual deaths may double or triple over the usual flu. However, many more people will require much more intensive medical care and this will overwhelm our medical system.

Case in point, Chinese nurses are now begging for outside relief because they cannot handle the workload anymore.
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Old 27 February 2020, 11:17 AM   #315
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Reminds me of Y2K. Lots of people explaining that it could get BAD and that nothing happening should not be considered a good sign.
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Old 27 February 2020, 11:40 AM   #316
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As 'JasoninDenver' says, the impact is not just the afflicted, it is also the economic chaos that an epidemic/pandemic causes. The Stockmarket has had a minor crash and this affects everyone, particularly we 'self-funded retirees'.
The impact on retail and hospitality businesses has been huge and will have ongoing effects for the rest of the year. Some businesses won't survive this.
Some people will always panic in any given situation which has roll-on effects on the rest of the population - i.e. panic buying etc.
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Old 27 February 2020, 12:38 PM   #317
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Scientist here (but not a virologist, so YMMV).



H1N1 refers to hemagglutinin type 1 and neuraminidase type 1. It is a classification system, derived from proteins found on the specific virus strains. Hemagglutinin typically will help binding to a host cell, and neuraminidase will regulate the viral release from host cell.



The coronaviruses are a little different given that they typically originate from an animal source, and "novel" coronaviruses have never been detected in humans before. This typically means a novel exposure method or, more commonly, the mutation of a strain that increases properties regulating the infection probability of humans.



This coronavirus is specifically scary because 1) there is no first-line defense (i.e. vaccines), meaning that 2) more people are vulnerable, and this is bad because 3) the symptoms appear to be quite severe, and respiratory in nature, which can lead to death.



While influenza kills tens of thousands of people a year, that is expected so it isn't news. They are also typically vulnerable populations, and if nothing else there are vaccines to help minimize risk and economic vulnerability.



With a novel virus like this, there are no defenses so everyone is vulnerable, and the only way to contain an outbreak is to shut everything down. If that happens in a first-world economy, the economic outlook may trickle and be severe. Fear of the latter is what we're seeing now in the markets.



.
Very informative, thank you.

I do have 1 question though. You mentioned that coronavirus are novel, therefore there is no front line defense, as in vaccines. When H1N1 appeared initially, there was no vaccine for it, a vaccine wss only created afterwards. Are we not in the same situation as the pandemic H1N1 then in 2009 ?

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Old 27 February 2020, 02:26 PM   #318
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CashGap View Post
I'm in the US, and I'm shocked some people here are taking this so seriously.

ďThe immediate health risk from 2019-nCoV to the general public in the United States is thought to be low at this time,Ē says Gabor Kelen, a medical doctor and director of the Johns Hopkins Office of Critical Event Preparedness and Response.

But, with 100 24 hour news stations, they have to beat SOME drum loudly.

57 cases in the United States. Zero deaths.

We have three times as many cases of leprosy in the United States, and I think folks understand we have that under control.

San Francisco declares a state of emergency after... zero... cases.

The motivation is not humanitarian.
This

Here in the states, the virus will be used as a political tool and access to emergency funding.

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Old 27 February 2020, 08:35 PM   #319
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Originally Posted by CashGap View Post
I'm in the US, and I'm shocked some people here are taking this so seriously.

57 cases in the United States. Zero deaths.

We have three times as many cases of leprosy in the United States, and I think folks understand we have that under control.

San Francisco declares a state of emergency after... zero... cases.

The motivation is not humanitarian.


There were 50 cases in Korea last week. Now itís more than 1500 confirmed. What the actual number is, nobody knows. Tough to see how leprosy is comparable.

Declaration of emergency to enact preventative measures and protect healthcare workers is somehow not humanitarian?


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Old 27 February 2020, 08:41 PM   #320
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This

Here in the states, the virus will be used as a political tool and access to emergency funding.

The media has been looking for a way to destroy the economy now for some time. I looks like they feel they have found a way to accomplish that. They will attempt to spin the people of the United States into abject panic. Letís see if it works.
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Old 27 February 2020, 09:15 PM   #321
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The media has been looking for a way to destroy the economy now for some time. I looks like they feel they have found a way to accomplish that. They will attempt to spin the people of the United States into abject panic. Letís see if it works.


And why would the media want to do that?


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Old 27 February 2020, 09:31 PM   #322
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The media has been looking for a way to destroy the economy now for some time. I looks like they feel they have found a way to accomplish that. They will attempt to spin the people of the United States into abject panic. Let’s see if it works.
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Old 27 February 2020, 09:50 PM   #323
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And why would the media want to do that?


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https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/ye...234647173.html

Itís what they do. It shouldnít work though. Time will tail. A lot of people lost a lot of money this week.
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Old 27 February 2020, 10:09 PM   #324
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Old 27 February 2020, 10:15 PM   #325
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https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/ye...234647173.html



Itís what they do. It shouldnít work though. Time will tail. A lot of people lost a lot of money this week.


Have you read this:

Quote:
Originally Posted by mykii View Post
Scientist here (but not a virologist, so YMMV).



H1N1 refers to hemagglutinin type 1 and neuraminidase type 1. It is a classification system, derived from proteins found on the specific virus strains. Hemagglutinin typically will help binding to a host cell, and neuraminidase will regulate the viral release from host cell.



The coronaviruses are a little different given that they typically originate from an animal source, and "novel" coronaviruses have never been detected in humans before. This typically means a novel exposure method or, more commonly, the mutation of a strain that increases properties regulating the infection probability of humans.



This coronavirus is specifically scary because 1) there is no first-line defense (i.e. vaccines), meaning that 2) more people are vulnerable, and this is bad because 3) the symptoms appear to be quite severe, and respiratory in nature, which can lead to death.



While influenza kills tens of thousands of people a year, that is expected so it isn't news. They are also typically vulnerable populations, and if nothing else there are vaccines to help minimize risk and economic vulnerability.



With a novel virus like this, there are no defenses so everyone is vulnerable, and the only way to contain an outbreak is to shut everything down. If that happens in a first-world economy, the economic outlook may trickle and be severe. Fear of the latter is what we're seeing now in the markets.



.





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Old 27 February 2020, 10:29 PM   #326
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The media has been looking for a way to destroy the economy now for some time. I looks like they feel they have found a way to accomplish that. They will attempt to spin the people of the United States into abject panic. Letís see if it works.
Please explain?
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Old 27 February 2020, 10:36 PM   #327
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This has been an interesting read.

Here in Canada it’s being taken quite seriously at least IMO. Perhaps because we had the SARS outbreak in the GTA back in 2003, and this sort of thing affected our city and country at that time in a big way.
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Old 27 February 2020, 10:42 PM   #328
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For travel, the US Center For Disease Control (CDC) has advisory levels:

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices

Level 3 is “avoid unnecessary travel”.

Level 2: “Practice Enganced Precautions” (this would mean avoiding large crowds; Japan is currently level 2).

Level 3 is “practice usual precautions”. I think this means “wash your hands, you slob”.

The reaction to this virus is so hyper because as a world community, we have not yet developed the regular tools for treating. We are still gaining knowledge. For example, many have wondered why relatively young Chinese doctors are dying from it. One theory is that it is much more lethal on your second round, and the doctors and nurses treating it get multiple cases. Hyper attention is justified until this is all sorted out.
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Old 27 February 2020, 10:44 PM   #329
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Old 28 February 2020, 12:06 AM   #330
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