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Old 5 March 2020, 05:28 AM   #811
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Yikes that is definitely not good news
Itís misleading. Irresponsible, in my opinion. Being in the field, weíve been briefed on this case. The results of their test conclude the dog has been in contact with the virus, not been infected with it.
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Old 5 March 2020, 06:18 AM   #812
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So the U.S. has the highest percentage death rate/per infected at the moment. According to cnn about 6,7%.
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Old 5 March 2020, 06:26 AM   #813
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10 dead in Washington state since the beginning of the week.
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Old 5 March 2020, 06:34 AM   #814
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But we need not worry. The markets are up.
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Old 5 March 2020, 06:41 AM   #815
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But we need not worry. The markets are up.
The results of Super Tuesday helped no doubt. Lets see how many days can it sustain.

We have cases in New York, so far the public seems pretty calm about it. We have already shut down 3 schools due to the virus though. The supplies don't seem too crazy. Food and everything else is pretty plentiful in our supermarkets. I haven't stocked up on anything other than what I normally keep in the houses. Food is less of a concern for me as I have family that owns a pretty big Food wholesale business with one of the warehouses located in Brooklyn
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Old 5 March 2020, 06:45 AM   #816
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odd that the death toll in the US percentage wise is much higher than other countries. I guess we will see if it keeps up as the virus continues to spread. I hope it drops significantly, but those numbers are a little scary to me.
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Old 5 March 2020, 06:45 AM   #817
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But we need not worry. The markets are up.
Sadly, this seems to be a common believe here in the US. I canít even count how many people Iíve spoke to who seem to care more about the DOW than the virus or warnings about the virus.


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So the U.S. has the highest percentage death rate/per infected at the moment. According to cnn about 6,7%.
This seems like evidence of under-testing and under-diagnosis here in the US. If the number of verified cases is low(er) than the death rate will appear higher. I believe this is a factor of leadership in the US seems to care more about the market than the collective safety of the population.
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Old 5 March 2020, 06:49 AM   #818
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So the U.S. has the highest percentage death rate/per infected at the moment. According to cnn about 6,7%.
This isn't a reliable figure because the CDC testing has been........"lacking" (That's the nicest word I can think of)

Now the CDC has removed their testing data from the website. We no longer know how many they've tested, and therefore cannot work out a percentage.

This may be due to nefarious reasons, or simply incompetence. Either way, we're in the dark.

What we do know (or did before they removed the test data) was that the numbers tested were laughably low, so low that any statistical analysis would be pointless, especially with what we know about the infection rate so far.

South Korea's numbers seem the most reliable (or transparent) so far. They're the ones to watch.
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Old 5 March 2020, 06:53 AM   #819
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This isn't a reliable figure because the CDC testing has been........"lacking" (That's the nicest word I can think of)

Now the CDC has removed their testing data from the website. We no longer know how many they've tested, and therefore cannot work out a percentage.

This may be due to nefarious reasons, or simply incompetence. Either way, we're in the dark.

What we do know (or did before they removed the test data) was that the numbers tested were laughably low, so low that any statistical analysis would be pointless, especially with what we know about the infection rate so far.

South Korea's numbers seem the most reliable (or transparent) so far. They're the ones to watch.

Itís sad to me that we were once the nation to watch as being on top of this type of thing. Now, look where we are....
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Old 5 March 2020, 07:22 AM   #820
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It’s sad to me that we were once the nation to watch as being on top of this type of thing. Now, look where we are....
We still are. By a long shot.

The news media continues to try to push this scary narrative as much as possible unfortunately for them that notion is just not backed up by what I’m hearing from the leading experts on this. Once we have some other huge national event the media will move on from this for the most part anyway. I am concerned for my 78-year-old mother who has COPD but fortunately she lives in northern Maine and spends most of her time inside anyway.
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Old 5 March 2020, 07:41 AM   #821
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At present, it is tempting to estimate the case fatality rate by dividing the number of known deaths by the number of confirmed cases. IMHO, this is flawed.

The resulting number does not represent the true case fatality rate and might be off by orders of magnitude due to unrecorded or underreported cases. The CDC kerfuffle with initial test kits also caused some issues.

If I may shift gears for a moment. Even if we accepted that mortality rate which some have mentioned over the last hour...
Projecting the rate is skewed because many deaths were recorded for people with pre-existing conditions, and/or compromised immunity. In other words the infected patients werenít a cohort representing the demographics of the population. This creates a sampling error in any projections some people have made.

Be watchful for incorrect usage of the numbers this early in the outbreak.




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Old 5 March 2020, 08:08 AM   #822
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At present, it is tempting to estimate the case fatality rate by dividing the number of known deaths by the number of confirmed cases. IMHO, this is flawed.

The resulting number does not represent the true case fatality rate and might be off by orders of magnitude due to unrecorded or underreported cases. The CDC kerfuffle with initial test kits also caused some issues.

If I may shift gears for a moment. Even if we accepted that mortality rate which some have mentioned over the last hour...
Projecting the rate is skewed because many deaths were recorded for people with pre-existing conditions, and/or compromised immunity. In other words the infected patients werenít a cohort representing the demographics of the population. This creates a sampling error in any projections some people have made.

Be watchful for incorrect usage of the numbers this early in the outbreak.
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I agree.

Many contagious travellers will have left Wuhan/China several weeks ago Ė spreading the virus before this was even a known issue.

Many countries will have had far more cases than we realize.

Many people will have had Corona, not known and not even reported it and are now well.

Many people will have (or had) flu like symptoms and not report to a doctor because they think itís flu (or a bad cold)

Many of these statistics I am seeing I do not believe are remotely accurate.

(but no doubt, like flu it's not good if you get it, particularly when elderly)
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Old 5 March 2020, 08:09 AM   #823
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At present, it is tempting to estimate the case fatality rate by dividing the number of known deaths by the number of confirmed cases. IMHO, this is flawed.

The resulting number does not represent the true case fatality rate and might be off by orders of magnitude due to unrecorded or underreported cases. The CDC kerfuffle with initial test kits also caused some issues.

If I may shift gears for a moment. Even if we accepted that mortality rate which some have mentioned over the last hour...
Projecting the rate is skewed because many deaths were recorded for people with pre-existing conditions, and/or compromised immunity. In other words the infected patients weren’t a cohort representing the demographics of the population. This creates a sampling error in any projections some people have made.

Be watchful for incorrect usage of the numbers this early in the outbreak.




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This post ought to be repeated at the top of every page of this thread. Nobody has the faintest idea what the mortality rate of this thing is. All we have is a running confirmed-case fatality rate.
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Old 5 March 2020, 08:21 AM   #824
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Does anyone know how many of the US fatalities are from the assisted living facility that was infected? That may also account for some of the high percentages if several are from there.
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Old 5 March 2020, 08:39 AM   #825
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The news media continues to try to push this scary narrative as much as possible unfortunately for them that notion is just not backed up by what I’m hearing from the leading experts on this.
Not sure what experts you're listening to or why you think the epidemic is somehow being driven by "the news media." Every physician friend and colleague I have spoken to is very concerned about what is happening.
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Old 5 March 2020, 08:43 AM   #826
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Not sure what experts you're listening to or why you think the epidemic is somehow being driven by "the news media." Every physician friend and colleague I have spoken to is very concerned about what is happening.
I would be willing to bet you know a lot more physicians and I do. I only know two. Neither one of them are overly concerned about this. Are they watching it? Yes. Are they freaked out in panic mode? Absolutely not. Thatís all I meant.

And if youíre not sure about the news media making a big deal out of this try watching CNN for 10 minutes. Then youíll understand what I mean.

Anyway I value your input on this. Thanks.
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Old 5 March 2020, 08:49 AM   #827
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We still are. By a long shot.
You and I seldom disagree, now I have to disagree.
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Old 5 March 2020, 08:49 AM   #828
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Hopefully more accurate data will be available in the US soon as the president has just removed a regulation that limited the ability of laboratories run by states, universities and private companies to conduct screenings not approved by the FDA. Now, those labs are allowed to use tests they independently developed.
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Old 5 March 2020, 09:46 AM   #829
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This post ought to be repeated at the top of every page of this thread. Nobody has the faintest idea what the mortality rate of this thing is. All we have is a running confirmed-case fatality rate.
Exactly. This is compounded by the fact that the infection rate is directly affected by the testing numbers. The tests aren't being done so the rate of deaths vs infections isn't known (by anyone). You can't find the evidence if you aren't looking for it.

The Lancet study (that I linked many pages earlier) suggests 15%. The study is clearly limited as the numbers being reported are the limiting factor as testing isn't widespread.

Those saying "its no worse than the flu" are correct on some respects (the numbers don't show it) but are catastrophically wrong in others (the tests just aren't being done, so how do we know?).

I prefer to err on the side of caution, but at the same time chastise the doom mongerers who'd love to see the economy tank for personal reasons (CNN as the prime example).
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Old 5 March 2020, 12:17 PM   #830
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the Coronavirus outbreak thread

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odd that the death toll in the US percentage wise is much higher than other countries. I guess we will see if it keeps up as the virus continues to spread. I hope it drops significantly, but those numbers are a little scary to me.


Maybe the Chinese peopleís immune systems are more used to taking on bat, cat, and rat viruses since theyíre all on the menu.


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Old 5 March 2020, 01:00 PM   #831
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Maybe the Chinese peopleís immune systems are more used to taking on bat, cat, and rat viruses since theyíre all on the menu.


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Thatís not funny at all and quite a racist remark.


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Old 5 March 2020, 01:04 PM   #832
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Damage to the medullary cardiorespiratory center from the mechano‐ and chemoreceptors in the lung and lower respiratory airways. In short, the loss of command over autonomously breathing.

(Edit: Let me add that I pulled that from the report cited in the post I quote.)


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Thank you for answering my question
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Old 5 March 2020, 01:08 PM   #833
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odd that the death toll in the US percentage wise is much higher than other countries. I guess we will see if it keeps up as the virus continues to spread. I hope it drops significantly, but those numbers are a little scary to me.
It's not odd at all if the two concentrations are a cruise ship and an assisted living center. You know...where old people gather.

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Old 5 March 2020, 01:09 PM   #834
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Is there any validity in recent reports about 2 mutations, one being worse than the other? I think Italy first identified that their strain is different. An ‘S’ strain and an ‘L’ strain? It didn’t seem too positive.
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Old 5 March 2020, 01:11 PM   #835
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It's not odd at all if the two concentrations are a cruise ship and an assisted living center. You know...where old people gather.

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Our Governor has asked a cruise ship off shore to remain there while the coast guard tests 11 sick passengers and 10 sick crew members. We live just a few blocks from the ocean and coast guard choppers have been flying back and forth.
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Old 5 March 2020, 01:28 PM   #836
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Thatís not funny at all and quite a racist remark.


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It wasnít meant to be funny. Itís factual. Those animals and many more are eaten in China, regularly. There may be some immunity created from this fact. Go research ďwet marketsĒ.

And last time I was there, 20 years ago, they served dog on the train as an appetizer.


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Old 5 March 2020, 01:38 PM   #837
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Is there any validity in recent reports about 2 mutations, one being worse than the other? I think Italy first identified that their strain is different. An ĎSí strain and an ĎLí strain? It didnít seem too positive.


I canít speak to the report you saw, but there will be mutations. The chance it worsens is possible.

But over 95 years of viral epidemiology since the Spanish Flu has shown viruses weaken. And it happened before todayís vaccines were created.

Letís take H1N1 as an example...

There have been numerous adaptations within the H1N1 genome. Most of the genetic changes were documented as non-adaptive, in other words did not adapt to overcome the antibodies infected people generated naturally. Much of the change appeared to actually be degenerative, that is, weakened compared to its preceding genome.

H1N1 has been undergoing natural genetic attenuation, and some of that attenuation occurred during a single pandemic. This process plays a role in pandemic cessation even when vaccines are less than ideal or not available in some populations.

Overall this contributes to an exponential decline in mortality rates over time. This has been historically seen in all major human influenza strains in the past.

I canít predict the trajectory here with this one, but the more healthy people who get it, then overcome it - and the resulting mutant strain is passed along - then the virus will very likely be generationally weakened.

This is just my opinion from reading many studies of the past - I am not an epidemiologist.


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Old 5 March 2020, 01:44 PM   #838
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I can’t speak to the report you saw, but there will be mutations. The chance it worsens is possible.

But over 95 years of viral epidemiology since the Spanish Flu has shown viruses weaken. And it happened before today’s vaccines were created.

Let’s take H1N1 as an example...

There have been numerous adaptations within the H1N1 genome. Most of the genetic changes were documented as non-adaptive, in other words did not adapt to overcome the antibodies infected people generated naturally. Much of the change appeared to actually be degenerative, that is, weakened compared to its preceding genome.

H1N1 has been undergoing natural genetic attenuation, and some of that attenuation occurred during a single pandemic. This process plays a role in pandemic cessation even when vaccines are less than ideal or not available in some populations.

Overall this contributes to an exponential decline in mortality rates over time. This has been historically seen in all major human influenza strains in the past.

I can’t predict the trajectory here with this one, but the more healthy people who get it, then overcome it - and the resulting mutant strain is passed along - then the virus will very likely be generationally weakened.

This is just my opinion from reading many studies of the past - I am not an epidemiologist.


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That’s incredibly fascinating!!!
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Old 5 March 2020, 01:44 PM   #839
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Thatís not funny at all and quite a racist remark.
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It wasnít meant to be funny. Itís factual. Those animals and many more are eaten in China, regularly. There may be some immunity created from this fact. Go research ďwet marketsĒ.

And last time I was there, 20 years ago, they served dog on the train as an appetizer.
Maybe you should double check your facts.

Bats are rarely eaten in China, they're more prevalent in Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia

Rats are rarely eaten in China as well. They're more prevalent in Thailand and Africa

Cats consumption has gone way down to almost nothing since there is a huge opposition to eating them in China since the 2000s. Also there is nothing linking the virus to cats at all.

20 years ago you were offered dog meat but I can probably say with 100% confidence dog is no longer on the menu on any train in the country. Just like cats their consumption has gone way down.
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Old 5 March 2020, 01:46 PM   #840
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We still are. By a long shot.

The news media continues to try to push this scary narrative as much as possible unfortunately for them that notion is just not backed up by what Iím hearing from the leading experts on this. Once we have some other huge national event the media will move on from this for the most part anyway. I am concerned for my 78-year-old mother who has COPD but fortunately she lives in northern Maine and spends most of her time inside anyway.
what leading experts are you hearing from, the same ones in the media??
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